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tv   Counting the Cost 2020 Ep 24  Al Jazeera  June 16, 2020 8:33am-9:02am +03

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you know. i think in the little play mother she was really impressed with this there's a lot of protection in respect to the iraq people a world away from a nation has taken indian cinema to a time al-jazeera well reveals the color and passion of morocco's bollywood. hello i'm come on santa maria this is counting the cost on al-jazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week india prime minister narendra modi rushes through the labor reforms as the pandemic and his own economic failures crash the indian jobs markets also from a trade war to a new cold war china time who its grip on hong kong the united states sanctions chinese officials through it all can hong kong remain ages number one financial
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center. and modern shock and skin design of the types of roles which might once have been called passing fads. now some of the thousands of jobs being created in the virtual world. all about to come on this week's show but we are starting in india where prime minister narendra modi's stunned many last year with his expansive election victory a victory and a mandate which he has really used 1st there was a populist hindu nationalist programme then taking a firm grip on kashmir rolling out that divisive citizenship role and doing little to stop the mob attacks on protesters surely the economy has prospered right. well modi promised to create 10000000 jobs a year but he didn't and his plan to tackle corruption with a ban on certain banknotes hit the poorest the hardest on his make in india campaign has really struggled for any traction he announced
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a $266000000000.00 stimulus program to see the economy through the pandemic but when all was said and done economists crunched the numbers to find there was little substance to all the rhetoric in fact economists at goldman sachs believe the indian economy will contract a staggering 45 percent in the 2nd quarter and with the pandemic threat looming modi's decision to lock down the country stranded tens of millions of migrant workers and killed over 120000000 jobs pretty much overnight and that's what we're going to look at now the accusation that india's government has used the coronavirus emergency to exploit millions of workers after 2 months of lockdown some of india's biggest states have suspended most labor laws apparently trying to restart the economy but the trade unions say changes to working hours wages health and safety standards they've all weekend workers' rights at the very time they are paralyzed by the lockdown restrictions. more discussion on the state of india's
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economy. reports from new delhi. the production of clothes for his designer label in his workshop and. sales fell by 70 percent in the past 2 months and heyman says he'll have to layoff around $75.00 of his $300.00 employees. the suspension of most of the state's labor laws he no longer needs the government's permission to fire in this difficult time. this is what was very important. from the government. which is home to $230000000.00 people is one of many states to change its labor laws including getting rid of the minimum wage extended working hours and reducing employee benefits. the states say the changes will help businesses and get the world's 5th largest economy back on track. paying the price. as soon as the changes were.
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fired from the woman's with factory he's worked in for 4 years. work is continuing at the company and 800000 people. new workers have been hired on daily wages and none of those who used to work at the company have been brought back. trade unions say the revised laws will drive down wages in a country where the minimum is just over $2.00 a day union leaders defined guidelines to protest in new delhi which police quickly dispersed more than when. i got. a good idea. of the country i met they are saying i am going to. ever live in america. the biggest changes have been in states ruled by promised in the day the modis part of the a jump the party critics say the government's using the economic slump to push through. that's planned since 1st being connected 6 years ago and at
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a time when people on to now to protest the international labor organization has warned 400000000 and the ends could slip into poverty as a result of india's lockdown and this urging promise to modi to send a clear message to states to home labels and protect workers from exploitation with us now on skype from chennai is now an atomicity is a senior economist at the research and business consultancy frost and sullivan nice to have you with us. in the renter modi as we said has been able to push through all of these reforms pretty much across the country now 1st of all i think reform might be a bit of a misnomer because reforms are just something positive happening and for millions of people this is not positive is it also it's temporary in many cases so really where will all of this leave india right so i believe it's important to stress that where we're seeing these reforms across the states looked at the dip in the anguish of that and what we're seeing is
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a lot of exemption don't leave the laws for repeat it over 3 years and to no question on the point of the elimination of this theo clause i think there is a big risk factor attached to this for example if the idea is to attract investments to india obviously if a manufacturing firm for example is looking to invest in india for the long haul the looking to be assured that they are steady conditions in the long haul so i think it's important that these changes that are got to leave the laws i'm not seen as an end all in themselves but they should be viewed as a stopgap measure and this time created if that is all even if not a time frame if it's really baksh and sought to be you must feel much more concise and to just issues and a much more concrete position making process and i think i believe it's very important. just strike that very fine balance to ensure that the name of lawyer
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falls and show like a pro business and my meant but also ensure strong welcome protection because it's fair to see that the and the minissha of the blanket as a mission of the laws of course comes with a lot of risk in terms of the protection. rejection many of you about the stimulus the now how $266000000000.00 with it was who saw the benefit of that did the everyday indian and there are many of them obviously but did they get the benefit was it more just for the financial sector like sun if you look into the details of the fiscal stimulus package you will definitely see that it's a lot more skewed towards the monetary support saved with regards to be free loans or liquidity free loans but that being said on the other side i think there's a 2nd sense is that the euro impact in terms of direct government spending is quite
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low but like i think we are actually just earlier i think we have to look at this as a wait and trot wait and watch approach sorry the government possibly is not letting go of all its monetary and fiscal stimulus ammunition in one bowl and there's obviously nobody knows how the engines he is going to look like in the next couple of months you could a government could be reserving some of these measures for later on to be fair to be trying to be a leader to 1350000000 people is for you can't you can't be everything to anyone just by sheer numbers but there does seem to be a disconnect between the base which he has obviously. looked after and then the weaker parts of society which haven't felt it has that been a political and an economic mistake yes i do think that we are asking the definition see when it comes to the. demand same in the sense that perhaps we
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should be seeing it what you see in other countries the jascha john's bus to the poor no wage subsidies to profits just sort of tight or now but again that are the important things to consider in the sense that india's fiscal head especially in times of treating downgrade so in a bit of a precarious condition but you could see some of these measures the i'm drooling over. the next couple of months what we've seen so far is just sort of just cheap business running and to tighten up now as we speak the lock downs are being seen pictures of shopping malls reopening and the like i mean a you have you got a sense of maybe how damaging this period has been and how how india will and can recover from it so that's why the lockdown is being eased and i think our numbers from january to march 2020 which are outright now give you a good picture of what jan they expect to see so jan you did too much of 2020 that
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indian economy go which is what each of 3 point one percent which was a $44.00 euro little and and then january to march it essentially captured just one week of the effective got down because of a lot of it was in april and me so looking forward this quarter of course going to be a lot weaker up and next net full of the fiscal year that brought in great now that's $22021.00 would expect in the contraction of 4.8 percent and i believe it's important to note this is not purely because of the lockdown except of course a huge amount of it is a lot on itself but as the economy starts to couple it's of course political lot of time to bits for businesses to get action on the consumer sentiment to start to be to buy for that confidence and that meant to be restored and a lot of and that's true is that going to tape oh i'm. sure that cupboard and the others and. quickly on strain your point on what is important to restoring your
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growth. i believe that the restoration of the confidence factor amongst consumers is very important for that demand side to private and this is of course tied to the containment of the virus itself to a large extent and this and i would say on the other side it's important for the government to sort of put out consistent and reallocate their messaging on precautionary measures social distancing and equally important of trying to outlets to follow the save so when you was a consumer step out you're confident about what you're getting when it wasn't going into you know exactly now how to tell you that it's been great talking to thank you for joining us this week. thank you so much. they're saying in asia now but heading further east to hong kong which has long held the
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crown as the biggest financial center in the region behind new york and london it is ranked 3rd in the world at 4.9 trillion dollars but what happens when all that gets undermined by what is ultimately hong kong's controlling power china's decision to stamp out ongoing democracy protests with a national security bill has been controversial and while hong kong's benchmark index lost 7 percent last month there's no evidence that international investors have rushed for the exit what there is evidence of however is china flooding the market with capital to give the impression of business as usual meanwhile the united states has threatened to sanction chinese officials who are closely tied to the security clampdown a decision by chinese officials in light of the protests over the police killing of a black man in the us so what does the future hold for hong kong status as a financial center that's our scout regular contributor ruben in hong kong he is a professor for asian initiatives at the university of nevada as i see business
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school always good to see you ruben hong kong has always been prized for its independence for its high international standards with all these changes coming in from beijing surely that is under threat now well we have 1st to see what truly is the law is going to say soft far lost that in that and therefore the reaction whether it's from the international community or from hong kong itself we'll have to wait for the law to come out and we'll see how how trump going to respond to it threats if this comes into effect on how we draw the independence from hong kong. a special autonomous region of china it's because i'm going to say our special but miss the region wants to revoke that. that depends on what julie china means by the special security act it was going to impose on
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hong kong so it's premature to do mate now by then i mean there are. outcomes of what will be the the effect however people are prepared in this community has made statements are tycoons and billionaires are made statements in general supporting supporting the the proposed law because it will give them stability and then also the hearing you have no choice but let's look at some of the anecdotal evidence that you've got to u.k. banks h.s.b.c. and standard chartered have both backing beijing's position but then you also have reports of some hedge funds which may be considering moving out what more do you hear about i guess if some companies of some banks are getting a bit spooked by it all the bottom line is that china wants hong kong because the biggest the biggest beneficiary of hong kong is really china since the handover hong kong has become the the place center of
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chinese hot money so china prefers that they have hong kong you know reach all. the minute players in china that could not do it in china because it's not good for the domestic economy can do it in hong kong imagine it's like how. gambling is illegal in any part of china then they are allowed out in the sense so. so it is the same thing in all they want to be our cities because there is no replacement shanghai and not the cannot be replaced but this is what i wanted to ask you to have your financial center has china has china taken any steps to make mainland china look more attractive for international banks and inviolable investors. remember that a few days ago they announced one of these special economic zones one of the 5
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special economic zones they weren't there any of another how come that's not going to happen at least not in the foreseeable future not in my lifetime i'm probably not in the next 50 years for us any place in time it's under the control of the central government and not be thank hong kong because hong kong was inherited the all its characteristics practiced its that made it international the only really international city within chinese territory just funny but you touched on this earlier talking about what how president trump will react we always look to that just give me your views briefly on on how damaging potentially the u.s. and its decision to change its status or the way it used hong kong help potentially damaging that could be but there are 4 air yes we're talking about here whatever trump does it will be you can fall in generally in the reading of these 4 areas one east irish one is the use of dollars. as the currency for transactions and trade
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surges there are restrictions on on the soft power absolute knowledge of science education and all of that and the 4th is sanctions on china all seashells for example restrictions on travel. on identified us people specific personalities that trumper would really say i have been responsible for this so all of those the sauce freezing their ounces in the us all of those so that's the 4th so i've got to be the effect our if i think we'll be difficult because it's really on seeders hong kong no more or less on them is in the autumn was in in terms of trade then there's the whole parish system that's been imposed on china on face one of the trade war right to hong kong so i don't think that's going to that's going to happen because that's also detrimental to the. the u.s. in in some sense because hong kong really don't produce our own we are a reeks sporting onion ring so out sorry not country terrifying to me. ok but
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i think the the it will begin with the soft power for example sanctions on china and i'll go off the shelves so restrictions on access to sensitive technology scientific research education on the site don't go up go up 1st on the sanctions and a few shells then secondly sanctions on the soft power issues under strict sense of oh and then 3rd will be the restriction on the dollar that is serious because a serious and chips ricciardo kind of the way in which we read u.s. dollar. china's foreign reserves 45 percent of that is the nominated in u.s. dollars so therefore china in fact thanks to that china limits the flow of u.s. dollars outside chinese territory so that then the last one retires i think that is the is the lessons of history before trump you'll begin to be the soft power really
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. met dick type of effect the empire rest china the whole thing of this is just dropped believes that he's the only one who can really confront china all of the bluff you know of china ok and this is i think the main goal that thank you for all your time in your thoughts there ribbon wanders out joining us from hong kong well we've already talked about jobs this week in relation to india but the fact is hundreds of millions of jobs have been lost worldwide because of this corona virus pandemic while those who can and that includes i should say the producers and editors of the show have been working from home using online technology to keep us all connected. but believe it or not there's been jobs creation to the virtual economy it continues to grow it employs hundreds of thousands of people it is worth $100000000000.00 a year which actually makes it bigger than the global film industry just one example for you farmers not the ones who deal with crops and cattle but rather the term given to people who sail in game items to other online players there are more
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than 100 $50000.00 people worldwide earning up to $25000.00 a year doing that it's been popular in venezuela where these so-called farmers can earn $40.00 a month remembering the country is rife with unemployment and the average wage is only $750.00 a month latella is a forsyte company it's part of being and john egan is the c.e.o. joining us from paris this week john thanks for time so mada shout skin design i had to do some research i had no idea what these things meant you know shot caster apparently as a commentator on a sports and things that i mean i'm sorry to be boring here but are these real jobs are these sustainable jobs. well 2 different questions coming so are there real jobs yes certainly there's quite a few people employed in the right now are this is staying or will time will tell i think what we're seeing though is that there's hundreds of thousands of people now deriving an income from virtual economies and while some of them might disappear
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certainly some of them will be amazing could they become an aspirational job even i'm just thinking back to when we've seen previous quote unquote dot com bubbles and they burst now i don't think we're in that territory now i think quote unquote dot com is just part of life so is it different now can these become jobs which people actually work towards. well some of them already are and examples for instance people will be familiar with 2nd life has for years sustain businesses within the platform so much so that $65000000.00 in income was actually withdrawn from 2nd life last year to businesses that exist on the platform that's just one example there are a lot of that are transients i accept but some of those jobs that are aspirational ready are jobs like streamers and you sports they're already mainstream but i think one of the things we look at where the emerging jobs the jobs that are only at the beginning and maybe sometimes are more supplemental in their income profile than the our primary like what. like for instance. virtual os the
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creators and virtual good creators so we are seeing an increase in the emergence of dissension lies cityscape platforms examples would be to central and crypto voxels and some of them space and on these platforms paper creating virtual artifacts secured by a technology called non fungible tokens and these n f t's non fungible tokens not only does it provide provenance to the actual virtual asset itself was a good but they also establish uniqueness and in creating uniqueness of establish value and around that value we've seen the emergence of secondary markets that will support a qualification of value for those virtual goods so one instance of one example would be the emergence of people who are creating virtual goods virtual are ok let's talk about existing jobs then because what the pandemic has showed and it was through necessity is that working from home is doable and it was actually pretty quick i thought the way people switched to it and the technology was clearly there
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to be able to to make it happen does that mean it should carry on once and i hate this phrase once will this is over because who knows when it will be on a yes that's a part of the intrinsic nature of this question is complicated because we're not really sure what the new normal would be and when it would arrive but i would expect that we will see a degradation in the level of involvement within virtual in this enormous spike over the last couple of months primarily in principle due to the pandemic what you would expect or certainly we would expect that one's life returns to normal there will be a significant portion of people that maintain their immersions within these virtual worlds within these virtual platforms on a more permanent basis our expectation is that we'll see stock prices and gaming stocks decrease will expect to see levels of downloads for additional gaming decrease but the behavior is now established as 34 months of that behavior and we've also seen a significant amount of job rules. people are looking for new ways to create income
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on virtual past ones on that issue of job loss that has been horrendous all over the world what are your thoughts on recovery because i guess so much will be dependent on how many people are able to be rehired by companies maybe companies are just saying to me look we have to let you go because we're going to go under if we don't put rehiring will be key really is a complicated thing you know historically we see the the highest race of a decrease to unemployment peak at about 8.7 percent a year so if you see a drop of 7 percent unemployment you will tipperary 7 percent in employment you will typically expect a weighted decade before that's reestablished so was that is a somewhat different now because of following in the temporary transit nature of some of the job losses i would expect that we're likely to be dealing with the consequences of some of the job losses now globally for at least the next decade the new normal isn't it john egan joining us from paris thank you so much do
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appreciate it thank you. and that is where we'll leave things this week but i do want to hear from you your thoughts on this week's show or future episodes on that kemal a j e tweet or d.m. me and to use the hash tag a j c t c when you do you can go old school if you want drop us an e-mail counting the cost of al-jazeera dot net is the address and there's more online at al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. takes a straight to our home page in the show's section there you can watch individual sports and entire episodes anytime you want but that is it for this edition of counting the cost i'm come on santa maria from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera is now. at night in a stock homes have burned somali moms patrolled streets police get it and not. for lack of. a tired of gang violence they use the maternal approach to prevent crime.
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i do think a little bit by the stories we don't often hear told by the people who live there mothers of rain could be this is europe on al-jazeera. all dizzy right explores prominent figures of the 20th century and how why borys influence the course of history beginning with the giants of the struggle for civil rights america. just as it was over the failed to oppress the revenue the victory can continue to keep the mic rolls to be defense that's what everybody thought about malcolm x. and martin luther king face to face on on jesse of.
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al-jazeera. and. hello i'm daryn jordan with the top stories on al-jazeera the global number of recorded coronavirus infections has now passed 8000000 the world health organization is warning of a 2nd wave faster than beijing 15000000 people going into lockdown in india for one of china's top disease expert says the next 3 days with a crucial in predicting the impact of a resurgence of corona virus in the capital. since new cases suddenly emerged in beijing we have tried to figure out the reasons for the break since there were no covert 19 cases filmed of the past 2 months we came up with several
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possibilities and the most likely one is that the carrier of the novel coronavirus comes from outside china or other parts of china and brought it here katrina you has more from beijing for a long time for the since the beginning of this pandemic beijing was considered one of the safest places in china of compared to the rest of the country case the numbers have remained lower since the beginning of the year so. we've seen in recent weeks a lot of establishment opening back up a lot of restrictions that we saw in terms of checks and temperatures and security checks have been relaxed people are going back to restaurants that many entered the entertainment venue which had been opening back up and also it's the someone else or many people were going back out and enjoying the weather now because of this just in the last few days we're on the other side of the city compared to where this relative to where this outbreak is taking place but even here in downtown beijing the streets are north of simply kwai.

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