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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  July 25, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. caroline: here are the top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. president trump says the u.s. and e.u. should drop all tariffs as he prepares for a crucial meeting with jean claude juncker at the white house. tells us why ceo he is considering disbanding again, months after making big cuts. christie's rides its rockefeller auction to a top sales record. we will talk exclusively with the ceo of the auction house. right now, let's check in on how the european markets are setting up. less than 30 minutes before the close of trading and it has been a risk averse today.
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all breaths are held about what will be said by president trump and jean claude juncker. it looks as though the market is not convinced that the trade tensions will be dialed back. financials up by 7/10 of 1%. minersls dragged lower, underperforming on the back of trade tensions. that hits the metal miners. we are seeing that hit some of the miners in european trading. we are seeing a little bit of green in the health care sector. that tends to be a movement into a haven. i want to look at the earnings, autos really being hit when it comes to the trade tensions in the u.s., and i want to focus on fiat chrysler, down 13%. tragic news when it comes to the
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former ceo. we will be digging into his legacy and how he stared the company into -- steered the company into revitalizing it. that will be painful for the new ceo. daimler off by 2.5%. chrysler off 3%. numbers at gm do not look good in terms of the trade tensions, how they are affecting that business. tuggedng talked lower -- lower as we expect tough talks between trump and juncker. we are seeing the dollar getting hit today as fitch says the united states will be hurt by trade tariffs. the canadian dollar, the yen up against it.
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euro trading in the red. we stall -- saw a little bit of stability earlier but we are on a three-day downward trajectory. the 50 day moving average is a bit of a technical looking at the upper bound for the euro. you might see some support if we get conciliar tory desk conciliatory tones coming -- conciliatory tones, but tomorrow ecb and theo the monetary policy differentiation between the u.s. and europe. here. i will take it from we are watching crude oil and we just got inventory numbers out. there was a broad drawdown across the different types of products. we saw a boost in oil prices and they have come off those highs, off 2/10 of 1%. one of the folks on our live blog pointing out that decline
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came as we got headlines from "the washington post" that some of president trump's advisers see auto tariffs imposed why the end of this year. the stock major averages, a mix picture. a lot of this is earnings driven . as the dow falls, the s&p is unchanged and the nasdaq gains about 1/10 of 1%. hca helping lead the gains related to earnings, the hospital owner out with earnings that beat estimates, particularly with ebitda. other hospital stocks rising. rockwell automation beating estimates. ups, the company posting double-digit sales growth. coca-cola, which had been bouncing around in early trade even after sales and profit beat estimates, as more solidly in the green. then we keep up this pace of
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growth? andave a look at sales earnings per share growth for the s&p 500 this year. pay attention to the sales growth, topline growth, and the estimates for next year. will concerns creep in about the pace of moderating? we saw that in the first quarter from caterpillar, sparking those concerns and we have not seen it much in this quarter, but keep an eye on that trend as we get further through the season. we have some comments around tariffs, not just on direct effects but on raw material prices. that hurt general motors in the quarter and shares are trading down. fiat chrysler having some issues in china, also talking about ron materials costs. alaris industries, another in that category. still following today after talking about raw materials costs yesterday and taking a hit.
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caroline: all about the raw material costs and the tariffs. president trump will meet with jean claude juncker at the white house later today. their face-to-face is a last-ditch effort at overcoming differences specifically on tariffs. some trump advisors see a 25% tariff on $200 billion of foreign made autos. we are joined by mark champion who had a great piece out yesterday, showing the tensions building, the conflation of several issues that trump wants to be tackling with the e.u. will e.u. auto tariffs the in any way avoided? mark: i think it is an uphill struggle for juncker. he has gone to try to head this off and limit the damage, but trump has made it very clear in the last 24 hours in the tweets he has sent, that he sees this tariff strategy of whacking
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tariffs on to competitors is a good one for the u.s.. he thinks he can win. it is very difficult for the e.u., a conglomeration of 28 states, to offer the kind of unilateral concessions that he wants in order to be able to say, i have rebalanced this unfair playing field, it will be tough to them to do. vonnie: throwing down the gauntlet, and a tweet that might've been a little tongue-in-cheek he said, we should just drop all tariffs from autos to everything else, and then he sort of put it to juncker that the e.u. would not do that. is it possible they would consider that? marc: it is really hard. when steve mnuchin made a similar proposal, but a slightly
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more workable one or fleshed out, if you like, at the g20 said we can have a deal amongst our main partners. it has to involve tariffs. it has to involve subsidies and all these different things. for the e.u. to give up on all the state subsidies, state aid, for example, is a most impossible to imagine. if you think of how the e.u. is constructed, 30% of its budget is spent on farming subsidies. you are talking 360 billion or so of subsidies every year. for the e.u. to say, we are going to kill that so we can have the kind of trade deal you want seems highly unlikely. caroline: trump trying to prove himself as a tough negotiator by twitter. you said he has already referred to jean claude juncker as a
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brutal killer when it comes to his own negotiates -- negotiations. what is the worst case scenario? the e.u. says, we have tariffs of our own. marc: that is the worst-case scenario. think theent, i proposal is for 20% tariffs but it sounds like it could be higher, was to be imposed. we would find reciprocal tariffs on 20 billion worth of goods. if you think this is a trillion dollar trading relationship, it can get a lot worse than that. caroline: we will see how the market continues to digest it. always great to have your opinion. let's get some first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: moore signs the housing market in the u.s. is cooling, new home sales fell to a low in june, down more than 5%
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from $631,000. the median selling price klein for the most in a year -- declined for the most in a year. the trump administration is a knology its trade war is hurting farmers. larry kudlow says a plan to pay farmers as much is $12 billion in emergency aid is only a temporary program and does not think the payouts will get close to that amount. in pakistan, national elections have turned deadly. people were killed in an explosion outside a polling station in the southwest. today's vote will determine the course of a nation central to anti-terror efforts. parties willtan's win a majority, according to polls, so they will need to form a coalition government. a satellite for
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viridian communications later desperately are today. -- earlier today. of thes the 14th mission year for the company run by billionaire elon musk. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: lots more to come on bloomberg markets. nysext, we go live to the for an interview with bloom energy. we are here for an exclusive interview with the deutsche bank ceo, his take on earnings and what is ahead for the lender. we will be speaking exclusively with the ceo of christie's. the auction house reports record first-half sales of art and collectibles. and the selling out of every single piece and that rockefeller art auction. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. caroline: live from the city of london, i am caroline hyde, counting you down to the european close. vonnie: bloom energy started trading today at $50 per share and has since made some gains. it is the first ipo for alternative energy in more than a year and alex wawrinka joins us from san francisco with more. : blue energy is the first alternative energy listing in the u.s. since 2016. joining me is kate are -- kr sridhar, ceo of the company.
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tell me more about bloom. customers choose to use your feel sell driven for -- servers instead of connecting to the grid? kr: we have an important value proposition for our commercial and industry customers. morgan stanley, data centers, kaiser permanente, and all of those people. number one, we are more reliable and resilient than the grid. number two, we are cleaner than the grid. number three, we save the money. when you make that kind of a value proposition to a customer, our customers love us and that is why they are adopting us. alex: your customers love you and hopefully you will sell to more customers and increase the top line, but i have to ask about international markets. china and the trade war that is looming over the u.s., you get
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components from them. he just moved into neighboring south korea. how has this trade war impacted your business? how are you tackling moving forward? kr: we have a very well thought out strategy. we have components coming from various parts of the world and the total impact in the worst case of a trade war is less than 1%. that is a short-term thing we always said goes away. think of the long-term. the world needs more electricity, reliable electricity. we have gone from a mechanical age to a digital age, and we are the future. it will transition from centralized, large monoliths from the trans-per -- from the grid that cannot be reliable in the face of natural disasters, whether it is wildfires or hurricanes. what we offer is a great value proposition.
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our hope for the global market, you talked about the international market, is what ing, asd to telephon people went from having a landline to a cell phone, that is what will happen. alex: bringing you back domestically, you clocked a win from the trump administration getting the reinstatement of the tax for the investment fuel-cell credit. how did you navigate that? lots of companies are trying to win with trump and you seem to have clocked one for yourself. they made alized mistake and it was all about a level playing field. playing on a non-level playing field is not republican or democrat. this is american innovation, invented in this country, and technology that only this
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country has. if we do not do the right thing and create a level playing field in our country, we will see these and other countries. i do not think any american wants to see that. that is a short-term thing for five years. this company will provide affordable power with no subsidies after that. alex: quickly here, in terms of 600 $70 million, do we see any more acquisitions from you? kr: we will look at any opportunistic things that come along, but we do not have anything in mind right now. we will inform you if we see something like that. alex: kr sridhar, thank you for joining me. above therading up $15 ipo price. vonnie: well done. that is alex barinka coming to us from san francisco. caroline: now let's switch gears
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and look at the architect of fiat chrysler's dramatic turnaround. 66.io marchionne was he took over fiat and spearheaded the purchase of chrysler. he was replaced as ceo after the weekend. his health declined. malan --to dan in to talk about him. the listing of fiat chrysler, having taken fiat from bankruptcy, he was a turnaround king. yes, he referred to himself several times as the fixer. he had quite a job to do at fiat, rescuing the company, arguing the most important emblem of italian industry for several decades, and he managed
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to start this turnaround by extracting about $2 billion from general motors, that gave him some financial leverage to put together his turnaround plan. from there, he took the bet on chrysler, created the world's number seven carmaker at that time, and off he went. caroline: the peace that bloomberg has on him is fascinating, he was born in italy, corrupt in toronto, fueled by more than a dozen espressos a day -- grew up in toronto, fueled by more than a dozen espressos a day. he had to destroy sometimes. he was not afraid of overhauling management. dan: no. he had sort of a rocky relationship sometimes with unions, both here and in the u.s. if you take a look at some of the comments made i labor -- by labory,
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leaders today, i think they all at the end of the day appreciated this attempt to revive a car company, to some daring moves, make this push into some of the luxury areas, ferrari, raza roddy, alpha -- maserati, alfa romeo. those moves were quite disruptive at times and paid dividends. his workers generally appreciated that. caroline: he lived life in the fast lane and was not afraid of driving his own cars pretty fast. how does italy react? how does niland react -- react? an react? dan: i think because of the sadness of his health situation, he was last -- sudden this --
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healthess of his situation, he was last seen and looked quite tired and not particularly healthy. a lot of people are shocked he has disappeared from italy's and the u.s.'s industrial scene. he was such a charismatic leader. that is certainly one of the toughest challenges that the new ceo will be facing, some pretty big shoes to fill. caroline: certainly. they will of course look to see how the new chief executive steers the company. we thank you for your insight. bloomberg has learned exclusivity tells about secretary of state mike pompeo's testimony before the senate -- he will tamp down concerns about president trump's stance on
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russia. let's bring in bloomberg's national security correspondent. what will the secretary of state the trying to message to senators today? bill: secretary pompeo wants to to ahead of what is expected be a tough session before the senate foreign relations committee today. the first of which, he will say the president has a complete understanding of russia's interference in the 2016 election and is just aware of their overall activities in places like ukraine and the annexation of crimea, and that the u.s. has no intention of recognizing russia's annexation of crimea. he will also hit on nato and say the u.s. views the alliance as indispensable to national security. he will be touching on north korea. he is delivering a message that basically the u.s. is not going to let itself get involved in
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and less negotiations, that it expects progress on a relatively quick basis. these are all issues the senate foreign relations committee is supposed to hit pompeo very hard on, especially in the wake of the press conference with vladimir putin in helsinki last week. vonnie: he will say we are engaged in patient diplomacy but we will not let this drag out to know end. corners of the senate foreign relations committee will he get the most difficult questions? many of them are republican. bill: he will get difficult questions from all corners of the committee, all the way up to the chairman, bob corker, and the ranking member menendez from new jersey. there is bipartisan frustration with the president's foreign policy and the access they feel they have not had to pompeo since he became secretary of state in april. it is a feeling that people still do not know exactly what
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went on in the two plus hours that president trump met one-on-one with vladimir putin. for the senate, this is their first chance to have someone sitting in front of them who and leave and continue answering questions for potentially hours. wiser: will we be any later on today, following the , about any of our national security concerns? bill: i think a lot of people, both republicans and democrats, are very keen to understand what is president trump's strategy. ,articularly with russia because in recent months you have heard the president saying and hisg administration, many of his top officials including secretary pompeo appearing to take a different line on russia. aidesministration and have been clear about efforts
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and measures that have taken, the stance they have taken, and they have had a much tougher line than the president who has seemed to be more open to working negotiating -- working and negotiating with russia. i think the senators will want to see, people like secretary pompeo, secretary mattis, are they on the same page as president trump with regard to critical issues? vonnie: our bloomberg security correspondent. pompeo testifying before the senate foreign relations committee on live go on your bloomberg, and we will have it live on bloomberg tv. bob menendez is coming up just after 2:00. ♪
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♪ from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i am caroline hyde. stocks finishing down the day on european trading, heading near
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session lows toward the close. key concerns about trade tensions, can they be averted by that all-important meeting between trump and juncker? autos are dragging down, consumer discretion down 9/10 of 1%. miners on the downside, dragging materials down 6/10 of 1%. chili saying they are going downwards, and some not particular great updates from european countries. the health care industry is up less than 1/10 of 1%, usually a haven overall. financials are up 7/10 of 1%. let's dig into some of the movies -- movers. gold miner up 7/10 of 1% as the update did not look pretty.
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on the chip side of the business, stmicroelectronics lower. this is a key supplier to apple. their sales will be rising 10% but margins will not be improving, so that disappointed investors. ryan and is up about 7/10 of 1% off lows from yesterday. they are talking tough when it comes to the irish, trade tensions over there. 300 pilotslay off and crew members if they do not back down in terms of their issues with strike actions. i want to look at what happened to autos, a sector under pressure. tomorrow we get daimler reporting its numbers. chrysler,had feared -- fiat chrysler. as theyany is off 15.5%
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say china weighed on sales, a tough course to be steered by the new chief executive. volkswagen trading lower. it is tough times for autos. vonnie: in the u.s., we are seeing a little weight to the u.s. auto -- dollar index. it is still trading around 94.60. crude oil will continue gains since we saw a massive drop down for another week in inventories, 69.20 one for a barrel of wti. the 2-10 curve is down to 27 basis points. i thought i would pull up the mexican peso because it is strengthening, not necessarily tariff or nafta related, more possibly to do with the political situation. let's take a look at global macro movers, i chose top markets. many are in europe but you are
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seeing the brazilian divest a up due to gains in commodity prices. brent and wti are higher, as well as copper. the commodity index up three quarters of 1%. there is lots going on from a drought and potential tariffs impacting prices. caroline: the dax up a percentage point, dragged lower by deutsche bank. the ceo has cut jobs, reduced , and and build capital four months later he is already talking about expanding again. matt miller spoke with him in an exclusive interview. look at the headwinds we had in the second quarter, if i look at the material transformation which we did, in all parts of the bank and the second quarter, these are solid results. withues came in, in line
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market expectations and some businesses above consensus. the pretax profit of 700 million is a solid number. most importantly, we have executed on other targets which we have set also. on the cost side, we have the lowest headcount in the bank since may 2010, since the acquisition. most importantly, we have further reduced our leverage, and that results in a capital ratio of 30.7%, a real solid number which speaks for the strength of the bank, and gives us now even the possibility to redeploy capital and grow in the second half. actually, i feel all right. it is solid numbers. matt: one of the analysts that covers you said the problem is the revenue attrition has been moving at a faster rate than cost reduction.
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extra capital,s this extra leverage, to implement cost-cutting strategies that slow that or turn that around? christian: i think what the capital we now have, it is our clear strategy to redeploy some of that in order to further grow in the core businesses where we want to grow, in the second half, and that started now. it is clear that in a time like in the second quarter where you reshape your business for your own purpose, you reduce some things and you also lose revenues. in the beginning, we're above market consensus. we had a stable and solid development and i think we can further grow. matt: can you give us some specific plans to reduce costs? for example, you talk about the headcount reduction.
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you want to get to 90,000 by the end of 2019. how will you achieve that? what are you doing to cut the costs? matt: it is all about christian: -- christian: it is all about having a fundamental plan in hand, and the discipline and execution to execute on a daily, .eekly, and monthly basis we started in april with a clear plan for the bank where we have to reduce, adjust our headcount, and we have been very disciplined. to, we will make our way come in below 93,000 at the end of this year and below 90,000 at the end of next year, but there is more of that. categories, west are only working on the headcount number. we are also working with farmer discipline on all other cost --
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far more discipline on all other cost programs. i see the progress we have done in q2. matt: let's talk about the individual businesses and start with cib, maybe the most important core business. you talked about trading. 17% and thatropped compares with growth at ubs and other u.s. peers. is that because of cost reduction? christian: i am glad you are saying it is the most important business because for me, it is also the most important. the core investment bank is the key to deutsche bank and that will remain the case. in thefic business, we had a very good second quarter 2017. we went through a transformation in the second quarter, so you see one or the other adjustments we have done, and we did it in
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one quarter. now we build up the capital, bring it to the business, and with the business we have i am very confident we will see growing revenues going forward. matt: you say in the press release you remain confident about maintaining your position as the fourth largest house globally in fic trading by revenues. what gives you that impression? >> client impact -- christian: client impact. they want alternatives to the u.s. banks. -- this gives me confidence. into the underlying business, and to developments that were seen over the last months, plus the capital position we have, i am confident we can grow. matt: what about the private commercial bank, and i assume
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this is close to your heart because of the experience in retail banking, why do we see revenue dropping 10% with selloff now included? christian: if you take off the one offs from last year, we have a flat development. in the interest rate environment we have in europe, in an environment where in the second quarter we completed the largest merger of banks in germany since the european central bank is in place in 2014, that is a good result. we have shown resiliency there, despite the focus on the merger. hence, i think we are growing in the lending business. we are growing the efforts under management and that speaks for my ultimate goal. the business and the bank with and stable revenues, therefore we need long-term growth from the private and commercial bank. that direction was growing
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lending. matt: let's talk about the rates environment. we seem to have a pretty clear path from mario draghi and the ecb. how confident are you that we can see rates increase, and how important is this to your business? christian: this management in particular is focused on the next 18 months. we have set clear goals for the next 18 months, for 2018 and 2019. we want to have a return on equity of 4% at the end 2019 and that does not depend on a rate increase. hence, we have to plan what we can actually really influence. that is costs and capital, and that is what we are doing. it would be nice to have a rate increase, however that is not in my hands and hence, this is not an underlining -- underlying driver or the next 18 months. it is hard to predict rate
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increases and this is not part of the plan. matt: you came into this position almost at a perfect time for may rates perspective because we are getting ready to climb in the next 13, 14 months. christian: i expect a rate increase over time. whether that happens in 2019 or later is hard for me to say. it is very hard to predict the timing and hence, we have done a plan for the next 18 months which is not depending on that. that was deutsche bank's ceo christian sewing. coming up on battle of the charts, a big day for big oil. we get quarterly earnings from shell, total, and conoco phillips. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ time now for our global battle of the charts. you can see them on the bloomberg by running gtv . right here, i have the biggest threat to the global bull market rally, earnings are starting to fizzle out. analyst projections for the msci world index, which i have in blue, dropped below last year's episode -- estimates which is in the white. we are a far cry from over here in january, some of the biggest pickup in analytic estimate growth on record. we have great earnings out of europe and the u.s., so what gives? this is mostly asia and emerging markets, where analysts are starting to sour on earning estimates.
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that is a gtv . caroline: that is definitely one to watch. vonnie: i will see her chart and raise her an exception. at least, a couple of exceptions. we are looking for shell, total, and other oil company majors to report tomorrow. total cash flow is expected to really blow out all estimates tomorrow. flowtory calls the shelf paradise.ash flow shell shareholders are looking for shell to talk about a buyback. you can see that chart on the bloomberg at gtv . caroline: so tough. coming with the passion from dani burger, i am going to hand it to the side of the atlantic. dani burger for today.
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applause all around. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ live from new york city, i am vonnie quinn. caroline: i am caroline hyde in london. this is "the european close." earnings season and trade tensions battle for the spotlight, but as far as alternative assets, auctions are looking up as wealthy investors put more money in the art market. thestie's jumped, helped by auction of the estate of david and peggy rockefeller. here.ful to have you you have 27% of all buyers that are brand new where are they coming from?
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guillaume: 40% are coming through asia and 40% through online sales. it says so much about the market today. caroline: in terms of tech and asia being a driving force. the number two market overall, picked u.k. to the post. how is it changing in terms of what you are currently selling in terms of the kind of art? guillaume: the art market 10 years ago was very much western things. it was between europe and america. it is true that asia has become a major player and today accounts for one third of our activity. we needed to adopt this and the first way was to invest in asia, through offices, through stuff, and through sales. we have an important sale in hong kong in may and november in
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that is how we address the new buyers community. you aboutwant to ask the peggy and david rockefeller auction which stores the world. -- tours the world. taken.iece was i incurious curious as to what will be in next. from that collection was snapped up, but the $115 million for the picasso, was that a disappointment? guillaume: no. as a result of this great collection, $800 million, it is a record mark, and the price on the picasso which was an absolute masterpiece, as well as the matisse and the monet where exactly what we respected. point: do you at some become the victim of your own
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success, the king of the salvador monti's -- salvador monti's sale? guillaume: i do not think we will be victim of our success. the sale of the leonardo da vinci was also a result of what we have done it christie's over the last year. we have invested a lot in digital in asia to conquer new collectors and buyers, and i'm sure in the coming months and years there will be successes. we are not victim. we are building our own success. caroline: talk to us about how blockchain may be affecting your business. talk to us about digital chart -- art as an asset itself. digitale: 10 years ago, was not seen as a major asset on the art market. it was even seen as a threat on the art market. the thing that could maybe
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disrupt the art market. it is another channel. online sales, for instance, contribute in a major way in acquisition of new buyers. the social media, instagram, facebook, are the main channels we use for our marketing. can you imagine last year for the da vinci sale, half a million people followed live the sale, which is extraordinary? starting from an auction business is about people in a room, half a million. caroline: in terms of the disruptive forces of the art season and the startups, is this something that changed your business model? are you looking to make acquisitions? guillaume: we are looking for partnerships. we organize every year several sales. we are interested in partnering with them.
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we are not so much interested in buying or purchasing new companies, but more observing and innovating ourselves, and partnering. vonnie: christie's sold $4 billion worth of art the first half, including private sales and online sales. trend towards? it seems like contemporary is plateauing at this point. guillaume: that is true. all the art related to the 20th 75% or 80% ofent our sales. it also means that other categories like furniture and in thesee arts, categories we need to invest and innovate because we want to keep our clients and attract new customers.
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the market with new buyers coming on the market is very much a contemporary art market, a 20th century art market, a luxury market. we want to keep the diversity. christie's is the art market leader. we want to keep the status and we have to innovate in fields that are maybe less in demand. vonnie: for those fields, furniture and so on, what do people look for? do they look for heritage and history like for example, at the rockefeller auction? are those the types of sales you would be looking to take on in the future? guillaume: yes, in the decorative arts category we are innovating through curated sales. we of course are promoting provenance. people like history. they like when there is a story behind a piece, and that is something we have been looking at very carefully through marquis rated sales.
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-- more curated sales. how does stock tensions near record highs affect you? you see more interest in diversification of an art class or do you see concern? guillaume: we talk about art and patient desire. economy, the environment are very important to us. it is clear that we are closely lobbyingand sometimes to do the best. caroline: who do you lobby? guillaume: four brexit, for instance, we are a global company. at the same time, we want to environmente fiscal and regulations are adapted to what we do. caroline: we wish you well.
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thank you. cerutti, ceo of christie's. take a look at where european markets ended the trading day, a down day amid concerns about trade tensions. will they be alleviated? dax. really affected the check out the names like daimler. .ac 40 off the s&p 500 in the u.s. just in the green. a mixed bag when it comes to u.s. trading, but it was a risk averse day in europe. all eyes on that key meeting in washington. ♪
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♪ >> it is noon and washington -- in washington. i am shery ahn. david: i am david westin and
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welcome to bloomberg business, balance of power. >> today is the day president trump meets face-to-face with jean claude juncker after months of tensions over trade policy. we will talk about the future of u.s. trade policy and get an update on whether the nation is close to a nafta deal. michael froman is our guest. bloomberg gets an exclusive's scoop -- exclusive scoop on secretary pompeo's testimony. he will say president trump understands the scope of the russian interference in the 2016 election. david: let's start with a check on the markets. abigail: not a lot of conviction on the part of investors at this point. we are looking at relatively small moves up and down, and

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