tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg January 16, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
higher, most sectors are up, led by i.t. later.s are due also development of 10, new gaming titles. decliners.eading ftse futures a little lower. not a lot happening today. the highlight that, let's flip the board and have a look at the street across the currency markets to rid the dollar is down. you're looking at weakness into china's currency. it has been with flying across the place -- all over the place. 5 this week..7 on theg holding steady back of the latest development out of brexit. we will see where we go from here. at the moment, markets on hold.
yvonne: let's get to our top story. u.s. prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against xiaomi -- huawei. awaiting huawei cfo possible extradition to the u.s. rishaad: let's get the steve engle. we talked about this earlier. how is this story evolving? steve: it is an intensification of the federal prosecution of what is going to be very likely -- she is on of bail in canada awaiting possible extradition. the initial accusations we were hearing was huawei's efforts to defraud banks, to avoid , theions on iran investigation by federal has increased with
allegations of huawei stealing trade sick its from its own u.s. business partners. one of them would be t-mobile, which stems from a civil case in a seattle civil court in 2017. they found in 2014 it alleged a visiting huawei engineer into their bellevue, washington lab had tipped a robot which tests smartphones. it simulates users, a robotic device. intoently it was snatched a briefcase. this is all in a civil case on record. the jury sided with t-mobile in this case and said the theft resulted in huawei making hundreds of millions of dollars. this is just one case that is part of this federal prosecutor's case that is now said to be imminent.
some sort of indictment is imminent and the case is edited them stay. yvonne: once again these trade talks get more complicated. we are hearing the u.s. is making a fight with the wto a little more moving forward. steve: they are intensifying that one as well. house, whether it was donald trump or barack obama or china, have long insisted has used to the wto rules that benefit poorer countries to its advantage. they criticized the wto regulations that permit poorer countries to claim development exemptions include from wto disciplines such as farm subsidies. the white house or the u.s. government, i am not sure which agency, but u.s. trade representative's will be at the davoseconomic forum in
talking about this latest paper that is pushing the wto to do reforms and not let china get away with calling itself a developing poorer nation. engle, our chief north asia correspondent. let's get more on what is going on. we are joined by macro strategist mark cudmore from singapore. we heard another headline about triggered ass market volatility back in december. why could this time be different? i think the whole narrative around the u.s. china trade war has shifted a bit since then. in early december we were uncertain about whether there on u.s.-chinaess trade talks. it was looking like an escalation. it looks like there were heading to 20% tariffs.
it was like a new branch. we have admin level talks that seems to have been going well. there are other talks scheduled at the end of this month and a lot more optimism around the trade war. it could lead to a pullback in the broad index because we have gains, it isong more likely to be a story that lasts a couple days rather than a couple weeks. rishaad: beyond huawei, what is the outlook for china stocks? what are people feeling about that? i think the narrative is changing much more positive given the large amount [indiscernible] that continues to come through the chinese government. ever since the statement from xi jinping they would show unwavering support for the private sector, we have seen a drip feed of policies. the point is they have continued to emphasize they will stimulate the economy.
we saw the chinese balance sheet in december surge is the most percentage since january 2016. that reflects the fact china's lending has increased, their tax cuts, they are doing everything they can to support this economy. since october we have seen chinese stocks as globalized performers. i think it is the start of a multiyear trend of china outperforming the u.s. after several years the other way where u.s. stocks were searching around the world. around the world. yvonne: yet we are seeing the s&p breaking above the 2600 level. it had been resistant for months. the question you're asking today, it is about the dovish pause from the fed making these catch a bid. what level in the s&p should we be looking out for now that would put fed hikes on the table? mark: this question came out of
the u.s. yesterday. my colleague cameron attempted to answer it. i think many people in the u.s. had seen fed policy has been reactive to the stock market and the slump in december. i come at it from a different angle. i think the fed should emphasize they are data-dependent because inflation data was shifting rapidly. oil markets were collapsing. it is true most of the markets seem. to think it is true as the s&p -- markets will see a reaction to the s&p. i think the fed is less concerned where the s&p is trading. said rate hikes will come back on the table for policymakers' point of view. david: they do so much, mark cudmore from singapore. hereg a look at prospects
in india. have a look at futures and how the offshore is trading on the indian currency. to give you a sense of the bond markets there. up two basis points on the 10 year. looks like we are shaping up to moderate gains at the open in india. roz. get it over to raj -- rbnz washington is raising the thees with beijing, saying capture of robert schellenberg is politically motivated. china and canada at odds over the arrest of the huawei ceo in vancouver and the detention of china.er canadians in the record u.s. government shutdown dragged on with no obvious signs as an trump or congress are ready to talk.
another bill to open federal agencies, but it is not include money for the president's border wall and is unlikely to survive in the senate. stabilizing. talksa may's is ready to to her opponents after surviving a confidence vote in parliament. motionght off labor's and a snap election to remain in charge of brexit. the comments opponent -- supported her by 325 votes. consensus among other parties that want a closer relationship with the the european union. jeremy corbyn declined her invitation to talk. prime minister may: i disappointed the leader of the labour party has so far chosen not to take part, but our door remains open. butill not be an easy task, m know they havep's -- but mp's know they have a duty to act in the national consensus. rbnz greek prime minister alexis tsipras winning a fourth vote of
confidence. backing of lawmakers in a vote triggered by his landmark accord with the neighbor to the north. the government's coalition partner had pulled out in to allowin agreement the country to call itself the republic of northern macedonia. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. come, one ofl to apple's biggest advisors to report earnings and what to expect from the taiwan semiconductor. yvonne: the pboc has been quietly trying to ease lending rates without cutting official rates. how big cash injections will help. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
could quietly make borrowing costs lower while changing official interest rates. billion input $83 cash and to the market. yvonne: providing cheaper funding of banks to allow them to lend to companies that lower rates. let's bring in mayank mishra. he joins us from singapore. thank you for joining us. the strength of the renminbi is remarkable, almost contradictory. stimulus in play, economy going down. do think fundamentals for support are at the moment? mayank: no, that is a great question. i would say there is progress on the u.s.-china [indiscernible]
the sentiment has improved in recent weeks. we think there are more gains ahead. there are high-level talks at the end of the month in washington between the u.s. and china which could provide a further catalyst for more gains. i think the stability or strength has other implications. it offers room for policymakers in china to continue to ease policy to support growth here. we were talking to jpmorgan china ceo on this very action, about the pboc's and whether regulators will do enough. he is feeling more confidence. >> this year we definitely see a step up with government and regulators. on the fiscal and monetary fund to provide liquidity. i think the dynamic approach will continue and stabilize the continent. rishaad: is confidence
returning? that is the question i suppose raised by what mark leung said there. i would agree with that statement. that is what i was referring to earlier. time, say 2015 or 2016, policy makers may have been concerned. they would have seen a risk off year, further easing policy. that might lead to currency weakness on capital outflows, but we're not in that environment anymore. we are seeing [indiscernible] at the start of this month. markets took it in stride. they strengthened after that. that is why we think this in sentiment would give more confidence the
policymakers to continue to for see growth supportive measures. we are calling for another 200 business points with rrr cuts early this year and calling for more fiscal easing. we believe they will be able to support growth in the coming quarters. they continue to slow down in the short-term, but we see stabilization or small recovery in growth outlook in the quarters ahead. yvonne: it is interesting. it plays into where the dollar goes as well. if you look at the long positions in dollar, there are positions in the market looking for long dollar. i see germany, japan may be at risk for recession. china vying for more stimulus. is the long dollar play such a bad idea right now? there are multiple
things plaguing the dollar right now. failing u.s.-term, growth exceptionalism and rising u.s. deficit is negative for the dollar. we are looking for a catalyst to be sure dollar. a think we have that in the form of a dovish fed. we are turning more bearish on the west dollar. we think softer u.s. yields should be on the dollar. what about the federal reserve? this will be key to read we still have an interest-rate differential taking place. it should be driving money into u.s. assets at least. we have the ecb or bank of japan in no danger of raising their base rates. you are right.
i am still in favor of the dollar. markets work on a forward-looking basis. it is important to see, where do markets the interest going? that is where things are looking less constructive for the dollar. the fed is seen as shifting in its policy stance from forward hiking to prevent the hitting of the economy. or maybe another one or two hikes if the economy permits it. the fed is clearly toward the end of the fed height in cycles, which i think suggests u.s. yields may be past their peak. the highest conviction call. we think the highest are not going back to 3% in the cycle. we think 10 year u.s. yields will come around 2.75.
u.s. yields are still too high, given the weakness and inflation expectations. we think that may lead to further dollar downside ahead. one of the plays we saw in 2018, short duration. is that why we reached an inflection point now where that could reverse? mayank: i think you are absolutely right. i think wetion deal, are looking at an inflection broad shift where people are favoring short duration costs. a longple are embracing duration call. we are bullish on u.s. duration, but also turning bullish on duration elsewhere. it is not just a u.s. phenomenon.
has been slowing down in the rest of the world and that leads to duration elsewhere, too. in emerging markets, dollar has been stable. em currencies can offer rooms for em and central banks to ease policy. we are looking for a rate cut by the bank of india this year. that rate cut may materialize even earlier. atkets may be looking central-bank easing, which can lead to a positive dynamic for the duration in em broadly, especially in high-yield markets. rishaad: [indiscernible] tell me, what is your feeling on this? bank of talking to an ex- japan official. we will bring you his call now.
>> with the inflation rate remaining low in japan, the yen is on a course to strengthen further. lower thant is ¥10 indicated by the parity. it could go ¥10 higher. then it could be as high as the 80's. i do not think it will reach the 70's, but the 80's is quite likely. [indiscernible] mayank: i am not forecasting 80 on dollar-yen, but i was on that call for japanese inflation. one of the things we have been focusing on when it comes to dollar-yen, it is not just the dollar at play. there's something happening in japan, too. inflation and -- expectations have collapsed. if you look at 10 year inflation in japan, they are down to 25 basis points right now. that has given the bank of
japan's yield curve control policies a structure. normally it is anchored. dollar-yen is coming under pressure from declining in u.s. and rising in japan. short dollar-yen is one of our highest connection calls. we are forecasting one of five by the end of the year. i would say it is toward the downside. rishaad: not exactly what you might call sticking your neck out, is it? thank you, great talking to you. 80 by the end of the year? yvonne: making it harder for the boj to watch turns. it is beyond their control. another big interview to tell you about. bloomberg, we have interviews with chicago fed president at 4: 10 new york time on friday. do not want to miss that one. this is bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. jet airways says it is working with creditors to revamp $1.2 billion of debt which may lead to changes on the board. sources say one option is for lenders to seek investment. before the debt is restructured. jet airways has accumulated more losses than any publicly traded carrier in asia, apart from pakistan airlines. rishaad: top regulators referring a merger [indiscernible] this is at odds with the markle government -- merkel government. german regulators want to get an
bankdeal because deutsche remains too weak. david: a very look across all markets. first shakeup of leadership. tencent, if you're waiting for a game of thrones game on your smart phone, aversion is coming out from the company. it is the one that owns 25% in the publisher-producer of baby shark phenomenon, on youtube. -- fast say something retailing in japan. on the korean tourism related shares pulling back after gains. longfor. they are 150 million shares at the price you see on your screen. minth was downgraded to reduce.
>> it is 11:29 in hong kong. 2:29 in sydney. i am rosalind chin with the first word headlines. federal prosecutors pursuing a criminal investigation against huawei. the case involved alleged theft of trade tickets from u.s. business partners and include technology for a robotic device t-mobile used to test mobile phones. soon.ld see an indictment the justice department declined comment. jpmorgan boss jamie dimon says a hard brexit is unlikely, but would be disastrous for the u.k. if it happens. the bank has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in preparation for britain crashing out of that you -- crashing out of the e.u.
dimon says he understands the desire to leave the e.u., but voters are only now realizing how messy it would be. >> a hard brexit would be a disaster for great britain. we do not think it will happen because it is bad for europe, too. brexit.repared for hard goldman sachs has apologized to malaysia for the role of senior banker played in the 1mdb scandal. they said malaysia was defrauded by many people while the bank conducted due diligence. one lied to all sides. guilty to laundering money. >> for his role in that fraud we apologize to the malaysian people. as you would expect, we look back and continue to look back, to see if there is anything we as a group could have done better.
at the same time, i want to to know before each transaction, considerable due diligence was conducted. the french finance minister is calling for the dismissal of carlos ghosn as chairman and ceo of renault. has abandoned him and all but assured he will lose his grip on executive power. there were enhanced voting rights and two seats on the board. they say ghosn cannot remain in charge. spendoft said it will half $1 billion to develop affordable housing in the seattle area. growing response to a housing crisis that has strained the finances of many lower and middle income residents. the company said it will also address growing homelessness in its hometown. tech has been blamed for driving up housing costs in seattle and the bay area. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
than 120 countries. i am rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. david: i am one of those journalists. 25.82.e lunch break, remember that level. we had across back in april. knocking on that door once again. 25.82 is right about at our 50 day moving average. yes, we are up on the year, but we are a long way from reclaiming past glory. might help, these injections out of the pboc. here is a measure that tracks net injections. it takes you back to 2014. the record of course yesterday followed by a relatively large one the past few days ahead of a lot of liabilities. you have liquidity requirements, the chinese new year. you have tax liabilities that
need to get [indiscernible] have a look at the chart on your bloomberg library. the other thing we want to watch out for, we are getting an update in hong kong. we are at 44% in terms of improving risk. that is the percentage of constituents on the hang seng index trading above their 200 day moving average. we are approaching 50%. it is improving. we are seeing a slight pickup. japan is coming out of its lunch break. some declines we are seeing. hang seng index, we talked about that as well. we're looking at a moderately high open in india and indonesia. we have a rate decision out of bank indonesia. rate decision is another question altogether. that is the state of markets. yvonne: let's talk about bank indonesia. may leave interest rates unchanged at 6%.
some analysts believe it has worked to stabilize the rupiah. they may be done, having raised policy rates six times last year. rishaad: expected to stay on hold. let's bring in barclays senior economist, rahul bajoria. thank you for joining us. it looks like the heat is on them. the president is not going to do anything. rahul: that the current juncture, i think most of the central banks in the region are likely to change their tune over the course of the next couple months as uncertainty around u.s. fed policies clear out, growth is starting to slow down. indonesia is no different in that particular regard. they have been one of the more aggressive early hiking central banks through 2018. given how high really rates are at the moment and where the currency is, the sense is they are done hiking rates. should we expect them to
start unwinding those rate hikes this year? i think you need a few signals from the data to a march before i can talk about potential monetary policy easing. their current account looks relatively large. their trade balance data over the last three months has been surprising towards the larger deficit. i think the inflation and growth signals are supporting policy easing, but they have been talking about maintaining civility. they are happy with what has taken place the last couple months. in order to preserve that we think b.i. will start to consider monetary policy easing, but that is not likely in the first half of the year. how is indonesia and its monetary policy atmosphere, for wont of a better way of
describing it, compared to others in the region? i. was one of the more aggressive banks for preserving currency stability. on the other side you have countries like philippines hiking rates because of an inflation problem. rateense is that teh bsp hiking cycle is done and we will not see any further rate hikes from them. they could be one of the first central banks in the region to consider rolling back rate hikes. thailand and malaysia, our senses that malaysia may be one of the candidates for a rate cut. thailand is likely to broadly remain on hold toward 2019. yvonne: plenty of political risk, too. with elections happening in indonesia we are seeing growth
at about 5%. we are still far short from what the president joko widodo had aimed for, that 7% target. do you see the election results impacting long-term growth in any way? our sense is that despite the efforts of the government, growth has been somewhat disappointing, but you do see momentum in infrastructure investment. you do see inflation coming down quite aggressively over the last five years in the case of indonesia. these are the policy points on which the incumbent president will run. thinkthe elections we do they will be forcing backward growth. how do you divide that? that could mean easing of fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year. i think the economic conditions are probably going to be a key driving factor in the elections themselves. rishaad: i want to have a look
at what is going on as we look at the philippines. a case of a rate hike diminishing. let's take a look at the philippines, thailand and indonesia with this chart an hour library showing where real rates are. the white in the philippines show it is still negative by -0.3%. and in malaysia, 3% or thereabouts. it is instructive. it is a bit of a conundrum, isn't it? in the case of the philippines, that is the only country running negative real rate so far. inflation pressures are diminishing rapidly. we are likely to see real rates turning positive. we expect inflation will drop closer to 4% probably by and of the first quarter of 2019. that will probably provide relief to the central bank to
think about supporting growth at the margin. it could potentially take the form of rrr cuts before you think of rate cuts. we agree that the current juncture, real rates look higher across the region. at a time when inflation is dropping and growth is rising, more central banks should start to signal a change through the first quarter of this year. last question -- how concerned should we be about chinese growth? forecasting for the weakest number we have seen since 2009. into how you weigh look at the regional side of andgs in aussie on -- asean southeast asia? rahul: that is one of the biggest headwinds the region is facing. our own expectation is that growth will slow down to 6.2%
for 2019. overall we were getting more constructive when the trade truce came through in november. the latest round of trade data are not encouraging. this should create some headwinds for growth for the region. anotherin will be factor for central banks to start to think a little more about easing monetary conditions going forward. whether that is done through rate cuts or liquidity management, i think it will come down to individual central-bank preferences. , regionalhul bajoria economist from barclays, joining us from singapore. rishaad: facing turbulence amid uncertainty ahead of the mumbai [indiscernible] what on earth is going on? this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets: asia." as we look with -- as we look at jet airways, working with lenders on their $1.2 billion debt. it is one of asia's worst-performing airlines. yvonne: our reporter has a story for us. tell us what the key takeaways are after this meeting with lenders. what we know now is lenders and liquidity partners are in talks. they are trying to find early resolution. yesterday the airline issued a the firstwhich is time acknowledging there could be a change in the board of directors which is indicating the shareholder chairman -- there could be a change.
he could be replaced by his son. there could be a key structural change in the board of directors, which also means it is likely to infuse additional money and investors who seek a change in management. in simple terms, management will have to step down from the chairman position. options what about the jet airways has in front of it? they must be diminishing, i would have thought. if you were called they were in talks with a group. now they are going back to seek a better value for the airline. he is also talking to liquidity partners which own 20%. additionalo infuse
investment into jet airways, they can go up to 29%. getting shares of he can infuse more money. one thing is clear in this option. they are running out of cash. david: and on that positive note, let's leave it there. thank you. out of mumbai, i had a look at my clock. they are 10 seconds into the cash market in india. let's get a sense where we are. our guest is here with us. what is top of mind today, sir? we are largely saying more consolidation in indian markets right now. while we do see advances, when it comes to the benchmark indices, it is largely range bound. advancing by a little over 0.25%. it is not any different for the banking index, either.
when it comes to the broader market index, that is also advancing by just as much. the indian rupee against the u.s. dollar around 71.2. david: and of the company reporting later today. give us a sense of what to expect. agam: let me begin by its energy business. we are likely to see a drop in its revenues as well as profitability. perhaps revenues could drop for the first time in 16 quarters. profitability is also going to be a factor because of the volatility in crude oil prices we have seen. because of that we are likely to see a drop around 12.6% when it comes to gross refining measures, standing at 8.3 a barrel. we are likely to see some weakness come through. david: should we expect, can we
expect telco and retail businesses to offset that and come to the rescue? what we have seen in the telecommunications business, it has added subscribers at a faster pace. while its average revenues per users have declined [indiscernible] we are likely to see strength come through for the business. coming down to its retail business, we are likely to see if it doubles its revenue for this particular quarter, particularly back by the boost we have seen this season. and both of retail sector and telecommunications business is something that will aid the industries for the second quarter. david: thank you so much, agam, taking us through the key points for the session in india. speaking of earnings, two or
rishaad: we are back. here are the latest business flash headlines. take a look at tesla. it is leaning on its home state for almost 50% of all model 3's on the road, according to ihs markets. many were registered through october. second, with just 5% deliveries. that is the case of model 3's increasingly popular in california, yet not driving forward elsewhere in the united states. there were sales issues. yvonne: united continental
soared after shrugging off its image as an airline laggard in promising improvement in earnings has plenty of room to run. they are bucking the trend by delta an american who warned of the difficulty of pushing fares higher. they said last year's good performance will extend into 2019 and initiatives are in the pipeline. rishaad: let's go to chinese data. spending heavily to take the coffee challenge to starbucks. confident itnce -- will outnumber starbucks in china this year. they burned through $130 million in the last 12 months. they have had no meaningful competitors so far. delivery i see only helps educate consumers around drinking coffee and having it more available. it is important to realize this market has so much growth.
there is more than enough room for two players. the more the market is being educated, the more it helps. yvonne: bloomberg has been told snap ceo tim stone left the company after dispute with management over pay. our sources say stone went around the cfo to ask the board for a significant raise and let the tensions between the two, resulting in stone's departure, after just eight months in the job. snap struggles to expand the snapchat's user base. rishaad: apple has been really grabbing headlines. it is said to be ready to cut back hiring for some of its divisions. iphonel down to weak sales, meaning it missed its revenue forecast for the holiday quarter. bloomberg technology's mark gurman brought us this from san francisco. mark: apple plans to cut back the amount of employees it hires in the near term can -- due to
the continued slowdown of iphone sales announced in january. tim cook, apple's ceo since 2011, made a disclosure to employees at an all hands meeting, saying it would be it inng revenues between $9 billion to $84 billion. he was asked if they would institute a hiring freeze to offset the lower-than-expected revenues. cook said according to people familiar with the meeting that a hiring freeze would not be the solution. instead he said they would reduce hiring and certain divisions inside of the company. he also said it would not impact hard gains like the artificial intelligence group, which is sprinkled throughout apple. in addition to that meeting, that apple senior vice president, including those in charge of services and hardware, net with others to encourage new invention and innovation at this time, where the company is seeking its next big thing. i am mark gurman for bloomberg news in san francisco.
was mark gurman from bloomberg technology with the latest on the apple scoop. a slowdown in iphone demand is expected to weigh. we have been talking about it all morning with earnings that later today. some are saying it will not look pretty at all. after we saw apple cut their revenue outlook, i think we are going to comb through this to see how bad it really is. rishaad: [indiscernible] samsung has its own chip business. let's not forget, the crypto side of things. mining beginning to ramp up. kibosh on newhe demand for services. this is currently what we are looking at. we should be getting those out the next couple hours. yvonne: sometime in the afternoon. look at this terminal chart to see how bad it has been for
tsmc. this is one of the stocks portfolio managers have. it is asia's most widely held stock. a bad quarter after a $39 billion white that we saw recently, given these iphone demand concerns. to see be interesting how it plays out. many along with apple supply-chain, dave. david: yes. makes you think whether or not -- it is eight or 10 weeks now? i just had a look at tsmc trading. yvonne: not cheap. david: still not the cheapest, but it has come up, 19 times earning valuations. the numbers will cap -- tell us. a lot of earnings. we talked about apple. we willnd of this week get 30% of the s&p 500 and the msci asian-pacific. rishaad: we will look at
netflix, morgan stanley as well. what else have we got on? the bank of indonesia decision later on. yvonne: not going to do a whole lot. seems they did the heavy lifting already with six rate hikes already. the rupiah fairly stable. 6% last month. david: there is a great piece on the bloomberg in case our viewers missed it. it outlines where major banks of the world are expected to take rates this year. this narrative of a pause year. just in case you are curious where i got the data on earnings, 39 out of 500 on the s&p. also, getting flagged down by our producer, telling us hong kong unemployment is out as well. that will be out of 4:30 p.m. hong kong time. let's look to get cpi in the euro area.
the numbers are turning into something that i do not think they will be happy with, particularly with what is happening with germany. industrial production numbers falling back in december into the negative. putting it down to perhaps its largest trade partner, china. the manufacturing side is the weakest, but it is transitioning to the consumer side. the retail numbers have not been great either, have they? david: lots of good news there. [indiscernible] let's look at the markets. dollar-yen coming up the low. we are about flat on the currency. aussie dollar is flat. we are steady on sterling. equity markets, hang seng headed into that lunch break, a little higher there. that is helping lift the asian pacific. as we make our way into the middle east and european open,
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