tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 17, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
>> good morning. i "bloomberg daybreak: europe am nejra cehic. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are today -- this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are today's top stories. industrial output did estimates after stateside data pointed to a solid consumer. strong words, the e.u.'s new trade chief warns against protectionism and questions donald trump over short-term thinking. we spoke with him exclusively on resetting relations. >> this is the objective of the visit is to try to reset the relationship, try to understand each other in relation to trade irritants and find common ground
with the united states. we start within a positive note. nejra: funding the deficit, the u.s. will start issuing twenty-year bonds in the first half of 2020. it comes as steve mnuchin continues to review bonds. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the data out of china and the u.s. putting risk on across markets today, taking a look at asia, green on the screen for the msci asia pacific index. he saw all three u.s. benchmarks hit records again and tech stocks were leading that rally. alphabet above a $1 trillion valuation for the first time. futures look like we could build on those gains. we saw green on the screen yesterday and it looks like another day of gains.
switching out the board to look at other assets, the yen has been posting a little bit of weakness. we are at eight months low. yield edged up after retail sales data and some other data out of the u.s. pointed to a stronger consumer. 182 handle is where we sit. we have seen steepening after that announcement from siva mnuchin about potentially issuing 20 year bonds. we have seen that in today's session. ow to the first chinese data dump of the year. the weakest pace in almost three decades as policy support and reduced external pressures stopped deterioration. beijing officials say expansion picked up in january and the outlook has improved. industrial output rose in december, beating the median
estimate and fixed asset investment accelerated for the first time since june. some of that may be due to the effects of the chinese new year, earlier this year than in 2019, and companies may have increased production. let's go to beijing and our correspondent, selina wang. the headline numbers are looking good but there are still some risks remaining. --e of the numbers pointed from the labor market and suggested the rebalancing may not totally be down for china. there is the risk for future rounds of trade discussions. selina: that is correct. we did see some weakness because the wages are not increasing as fast as inflation. to a moreng to switch consumption led economy versus investment led. we saw the composition of the economic growth from consumers actually be lower than in 2018, showing there are cracks
there. trade experts are largely in agreement that prospects of success are extremely low and that china is very unlikely to change the underlying fundamental economic model of industrial subsidies. state capitalism even in the face of maximum pressure in the form of tariffs or in terms of blacklisting their national champions like huawei. i had a wide-ranging conversation with china's former vice commerce minister about some of these issues. we talked about this enforcement mechanism in place, which essentially allows the u.s. to slap more tariffs on china if it deems that china has violated some of the rules. he remains concerned that there could be a re-escalation in the tariffs in that the two sides could have another breakdown in relations. i also talked to him about the massive $200 billion of commitments of purchases of u.s. goods and services from china. there's been a lot of skepticism as to whether china can reach those targets.
me that he remains cautiously optimistic that even though those were difficult targets to reach, they can be done. he also remains optimistic that the two sides can fundamentally coexist even though their economic models are divergent and very incompatible so risks ahead but we do have the phase i trade deal signed and think. -- inked. nejra: joining us today is the senior multi-asset strategist. great to see you this morning. we sort of laid out the strong headline numbers to support the view that we are seeing a bottoming in the chinese economy. risks remaining. from your point of view, how much can the chinese economy accelerate or may be not decelerate too much in 2020 without meaningful further stimulus? >> we have had significant stimulus.
we look at the rrr cut since 2018. we had 450 basis points. the fiscal measures and so forth, and our view is that the measures have been sufficient to stabilize the economy. a long-term view is very much a declining trend rate of growth, for instance over a five-year period, going down to 5%, so that is very much fitting into that pattern so we see stabilization but within that declining trend. i think for the moment, we have had sufficient stimulus to stabilize the economy. absent further shocks on the trade front, we are unlikely to get a lot of further measures from here. nejra: stabilization within a declining trend is what i have taken away from there. do you hold a lot of chinese assets in the portfolio therefore? yes. yes.priya: we have emerging markets.
we are quite positive on emerging markets across the board. that is down positive inflation dynamics, outside of china inflation coming down, allowing policy makers to become more accommodative. mentioned, we are seeing that stabilization of data is likely to get better news on trade. we have already seen better export data come out of korea, which is a bellwether so we take some comfort from that. we have allocated as a result. nejra: the fact that you're so positive on emerging markets, do you see them shielded or not so much affected by the slow down that we are seeing in china? is that the way you view emerging markets, through the prism of china? supriya: china is key. interestingly, i would say that the declining trend rate of growth is across emerging markets as well. with the exception perhaps of
places like india, other parts of the world, which have seen improvements in their demographics still. from a short-term perspective, we are seeing a better trade cycle. we have seen policy measures that are accommodative. china is absolutely key. have pointed to inflation. do you think emerging-market central banks in 2020 have more room and perhaps are going to cut further, ease policy further? supriya: we have seen measures in india as well as central well i several -- as well as several more in north america. we are seeing that in parts of emerging markets that have faced popular protest so they are thely to have some of demand for change to fiscal measures so a combination of
fiscal and monetary policy support should feel that stabilization and that improvement from where we stand in emerging markets. nejra: so you like the sovereign bonds. what about corporate bonds? are you more cautious on those in emerging markets versus the sovereign? supriya: we see a better value in the sovereign bonds. both external data as well as local currency debt, versus the corporate. we are looking at spreads in external debt versus corporate's and for the moment, we see more advantage allocating to sovereigns for that reason. nejra: equities, your positive on as well. supriya: especially in asia. one thing that can be said about the trade conflict, and we very much think we are in the early innings of strategic competition and the decoupling of supply chains between the u.s. and china. much of asia is poised to benefit from that. we have a number of companies that can take advantage of a more localized 5g supply chain so we are trying to take
advantage of some of those trends. the short-term moves in trade dynamics notwithstanding, that is a long-term template. nejra: as we see the strengthening, it has reverberated across a lot of assets around the world and cause people to think about things even including the relationship with the year and perhaps on luxury companies in europe. how does the yuan feature into your emerging-market strategy either against -- or against the dollar? supriya: the yuan is important but we are taking more of a cue from the dollar at this point. dollar dynamics have been really key last year. we think given where valuations we thinkhe dollar -- there will be some allocation towards the rest of the world away from the u.s. so we think that is more important. pretty much all local currencies in emerging markets are likely to take a cue from that and risk appetite is likely to improve.
the dollar is more important for us at this point. nejra: supriya menon stays with us for the hour. let's get to the first word news in hong kong. barclays is cutting about 100 senior jobs, trimming director and managing director positions in asia. they will be in trading rolls across the corporate and investment banks. the british lender seeks terrain and costs. barclays is due to report its full-year results in february. "obsessed"rump is with the u.s. trade deficit with the e.u., according to the bloc's trade chief, phil hogan. the comments came during his three-day visit to washington. narrative callout the that the united states has a trade deficit or unfair trading relationship with the european union.
in reality, the relationship is both balanced and highly mutually beneficial and this cannot be stated enough. the facts are clear. >> the senate has approved president trump's new free-trade agreement with mexico and canada. it hands the president a major win ahead of his impeachment trial. the overall of nafta was a top legislative priority for trump. mitch mcconnell called the vote a rare moment of bipartisan cooperation. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you so much. coming out, trillion dollar club, alphabet joins the likes of apple and microsoft. the chart that matters next. it is the week before the world's economic forum in davos. do not miss our coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am they were london. alphabet hit a milestone, rallying above a $1 trillion valuation for the first time. the move solidifies the dominance of internet stocks as the biggest titans of wall street. annmarie hordern. >> we see alphabet joined this club, the only two other companies part of this $1 trillion club remain to be apple around one point $4 trillion in its valuation, and then of course, $1.3 trillion to be microsoft. what is missing here is amazon. they need about a 7% rise to reset $1 trillion elite club status. as you mentioned, these are the drivers of the market direction, the dominance on the s&p 500 is in technology. all these companies plus amazon make 15% of the waiting of the s&p 500 so clearly, technology and internet stocks are holding the weight. alphabet being the latest to join this very elite club. nejra: thank you so much. supriya menon is with us. i want to quickly get your thought. on tech in the u.s., dominating the rally we have seen in u.s. equities. do you want to join that momentum given that a lot of people do sitak as immune to the
economic cycle -- see tax -- -- as immune totech as immune to the cycle? supriya: much of that valuation expansion has already taken place. when we are looking at the opportunity in global equities, we are looking outside of the u.s. primarily. we are very positive on where we sit today in the u.k., in europe, and in emerging markets. looking at valuations, we are 14 times that. we are at 18 times in the u.s.. one of the main drivers was the recent push-up in equities has been, you know, central banks keeping rates ultra low and that brings down the earnings yield, essentially, and when i look at the gap between the earnings in and bond yields, there's more advantage i see in europe, and the u.k., and in japan for that to compress further versus the bond yield. that is really driving our view. nejra: if we get to the economic data in the u.s., as well, we see more optimism. what we saw was from consumers, consumer spending driving strong retail sales in december, climbing the most in five months. it helped push bloomberg's weekly index to a 19 year high. other reports showed applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a six-week low while a regional manufacturing index was stronger
since may. the treasury will start issuing twenty-year bonds in the first half of this year as the government looks at different ways to fund a ballooning deficit. bonds maturing in 100 years had also been considered. steven mnuchin said in a statement that the government will continue to look into other products to finance that at the lowest -- debt. supriya menon still with us. with the treasury market, generally, you are not that positive on a valuation basis and you were just saying how you preferred equities over bonds globally. we are overweight treasuries. what is your preference and the treasuries market? we are looking at positive really old and that is very much not the case across much of the developed markets with the exception of the u.s. when i look at major markets, where we see positive yields so we have long-duration real bonds in the u.s., and we have that
also as a sort of buffer to risks we have elsewhere in the portfolio. cyclicalng such a value in the equities portfolio so we want to reduce risk a little bit through long duration positions. in this case, the u.s. nejra: what is your view of the u.s. consumer at the moment? we had quite a bit of data yesterday. retail sales outspending autos. the weekly index of consumer comfort rose. a gauge of homebuilder sentiment posting its best back-to-back reading since 1999. do you have faith in the robustness of the consumer and how that feeds through to the u.s. economy? supriya: the u.s. consumer has been deleveraging through this cycle. wage gains have started to flow through. the unemployment rate is exceptionally low with lots of hitherto long-term unemployed
being drawn into the market. from a fundamental and balance sheet point of view, the consumer is in a strong place and that sort of means they will continue to spend. the housing market will have tailwinds in the u.s.. i don't expect that to be the key risk in the near term. nejra: do you see u.s. exceptionalism fading in 2020? it is a view that pimco has come about goldman sachs sees them being led by the u.s. in 2020. i know you prefer equities outside the u.s. to u.s. equities. is that based on you thinking growth and the rest of the world will do a little bit better than the u.s. in 2020? supriya: if you look at the gap, we expect that to narrow. talking about developed markets here so the gap between european growth and u.s. growth will narrow. if i look at emerging markets versus the u.s., i expect that to pick up. the emerging market will grow at
a slightly higher pace versus the u.s. in 2020. the u.s. is going to continue to be a key driver. demand from the rest of the world. it typically favors the rest of the world versus the u.s.. nejra: supriya menon staying with us. coming up, we will be taking a look at next week's events including the start of trump's impeachment trial and pulling no punches, e.u. trade chief phil hogan accuses him of shortsighted tactics on trade. this is bloomberg. ♪
davos. make sure you catch bloomberg's coverage until friday. on thursday, the latest ecb rate decision and president christine lagarde will finally unveil the scope of the central bank strategic review. the e.u.'s new trade chief has accused president trump of electioneering, warning about the damage from protectionism. phil hogan urged u.s. government to work with the e.u. his remarks came during the three-day washington visit aimed at preventing an escalation in trade tension. hogan added that commercial relations between the e.u. and the u.s. affair are mutually beneficial. must callout the narrative that the united states has a trade deficit, unfair trading relationship with the european union. isreality, the relationship more balanced and highly mutually beneficial and this cannot be stated enough. the facts are clear. nejra: joining us from brussels
is bloomberg's. -- bloomberg's maria tadeo. how do those things stack up? maria: it's a good question. we did speak to him. because as young point out, the whole purpose of this strip was to de-escalate tensions. phil hogan, the words coming out of his mouth now are really important, and he is a trade commissioner. everything he says really matters for the europeans, and this is a huge portfolio and there is no secret that this has been a very difficult period for the e.u. and the u.s., but it is again, as you point out, interesting that he came out strong. saying that donald trump is to excess with the trade deficits that he is thanking in terms of the election until now. november, that is very shortsighted. that is not good for the global economy. he also suggested perhaps that
the europeans should really callout the fact that the narrative around the trade relationship is not fair. the relationship is not one-way. it is not too tilted in the eyes of the european union. the europeans should really fight back the idea that this relationship is not fair and does not work for both because in fact, the data does show it works for both the e.u. and the u.s.. when you speak to the administration, they tell you it is not exactly the case and there is a trade deficit. one more thing and this perhaps could be big news next week hogan said bruno le maire and secretary mnuchin will be meeting in davos to talk about the digital tax. the u.s. is saying we could impose tariffs on french products if not pulled out from the french agenda. the french continue to say there needs to be a new digital tax. the french will do one on their own. nejra: bloomberg's maria tadeo,
thank you so much. supriya menon is still with us. we only have a minute, but how concerned are you about the case for european equities where you are overweight of an escalation in the u.s.-e.u. trade dispute? supriya: i would believe that essentially you would not see a significant escalation. he already had some tariffs come weough over the past -- already had some tariffs come through over the past couple of years. muchtariffs, we would be more concerned. we think it is unlikely to be the case. nejra: are you positive on the your versus the dollar? -- euros versus the dollar? supriya: we expect the your to go slightly higher -- euro to go slightly higher from here. nejra: donald trump's fiscal overhaul has helped u.s. financials bump their tax savings. up next, we recap this week in u.s. bank earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> good morning. i am nejra che ridge -- studying the ship. china sees the first acceleration in investment since june. data point to a solid consumer. the eu trade chief uses his first washington trip to warn against protectionism. we spoke to him exclusively on resetting relations. >> this is the objective of the visit, to try to reset the relationship. find common ground with the u.s..
we start on a positive note. >> funding the deficit. the u.s. will start issuing twenty-year bonds for the first half of 2020. this as steven mnuchin reviews ultra long bonds amid a no rate environment. it is a risk on this friday. green on the screen in asia after we hit records in all -- a lot of the consumer data, the treasury moves higher. the yen at an eight month low. we get all the action from around the world. join us to discuss, annmarie hordern in london. and juliette saly in singapore.
let's kick things off with you. boom one looking like a for asian investors. >> we had that muted reaction immediately following the signing of the deal. trading at 18 month highs. we are in track. goes back to matching the longest winning streak we saw in 2014. we are seeing milestones. willia and new zealand -- continue? we are looking ahead to earnings season. 300 companies set to report numbers. >> thank you. if we look at the indian equity markets, set for the best week in a month. what is driving that? risk appetite?l
>> you have to say good morning. it is the global risk appetite. it starts coming in from this weekend. coming under the results. a big earnings weekend for our markets. recent sentiment all around, what is happening in the world. what is happening with telecom companies. the supreme court, the top court has rejected the plea for some favors to be fade. vodafone in india is down 22% in the session today. the fears of that company not been able to go through right now. >> thank you. you are looking at tech, tech,
tech driving gains in the u.s.. >> the question is what does that mean for europe? first of course is alphabet. joining the elite $1 trillion valuation club. on top of that, apple getting a lift from morgan stanley. they have a higher price target. chip maker. europeany, seeing futures in the front foot. juliette saly in singapore. happy friday to you all. >> china's economy stabilized in the last quarter. pace into the weakest decades. gross domestic products rose 6%. the first saw
reduction in investment since june. the u.s. treasury will start issuing bonds. twenty-year bonds. institutional investors have been calling for more risk-free securities with longer dates. more details will come in february. the central bank in south korea kept its key rate on hold at 1.25%. it also took a more upbeat view on the economy. it suggested a series of downgrades are nearing an end. president trump has confirmed he plans to nominate christopher waller to the federal reserve board. it will now move to the senate for confirmation. bement suggested they would open to trump's calls for easier
monetary policy. this is bloomberg. thank you so much. the robust bank earnings that underpinned stockmarket gains were helped by president trump's overhauls. savings came to $18 billion. the average effective tax rate fell to 18%. the law took effect, the average rate was 13%. if we look through some of the themes from the bank earnings, trading was a bright spot. in some of the banks, we did see a little concern around the consumer. what is your take away from the bank earnings season? >> by the look at the surprises, they have come on the investment banking side. particularly in regard to fixed income.
i think of jp morgan, morgan stanley, they benefited from that. morgan stanley, which has a larger wealth management unit, that surprised. negative surprises have been in the commercial banks. wells fargo, a little more disappointing. those are the main themes. as the european banks start to report something next week, how they will fare. me is yous interested are overweight financials, perhaps more than any other sector. >> this is partially valuations. they are trading at very low price-to-book ratios.
profitability is lower. we think the gap is not quite justified. better news on the regulatory front. we believe capital requirements are sufficient. we do not expect them to raise more capital. seized in at a pace that is more comfortable for those banks. there is a case for more consolidation in europe as well. a number of regulatory policy tailwinds, alongside favorable valuations. that is making us a positive. >> some people are positive in european banks when it comes to a corporate debt perspective. why is it the equity in particular attracts you? achilles heel has been profitability.
valuation already incorporates that. we are looking at the change. the fact that everyone is under positioned is good for us. we want to be contrary in. when you see positive tailwinds. really in the profitability front. we think there will be moves coming up. for more guidance. there have been upgrades in earnings. depending on guidance, that might continue. cyclical value area that we like. if we look at other factors, how valuable growth is going to fair. i wonder what your view is. is that how you structure the portfolio? or are you looking at industry a combination. we look at sectors. the theme we favor is cyclical
value. also, autos. regionally, that seems like the preference for japan and europe. itn we are seeing this, typically favors value areas. we have those in the portfolio. the u.k., that is not so much cyclical value. you have a high dividend yield. a combination at of different factors. more generally, cyclical value. on the gainsflect we saw in equity and bond markets, how would you describe your risk portfolio -- profile? do you say you have a tilt toward risk? >> we have a tilt toward risk
for 2020. we are more positive in risk. partly because we are taking more risk in those parts of the world. really, what is underpinning this is more a verbal liquidity conditions. thanks saying they are nowhere near normalizing policy. valuations.down despite the fact they have moved up, where we have been mayor -- more circumspect is with regard to earnings growth. the market expects a percent earnings growth. we think that is unlikely to come through this year. we think there is a little bit too much optimism. we think valuations will remain high. >> and 2020, you expect the rallying to be liquidity driven.
if central banks are not cutting as much, it means it is not going to be as big. >> it is hard to make the case for a rally similar to what we saw in 2019 coming through. staying with us. coming up, the energy discussion -- transition. wet 2020 will bring us as move toward low carbon energy. this is bloomberg. ♪
saying they will avoid companies with high sustainability risks. here's what you need to know. they expect a record year of wind installations riven by onshore capacity. u.s., china, spain. 2020 will be a breakout year for electric cars in europe. sales will come in under 800,000. finally, investments in renewable well at higher. global investments came in just under $282 billion. that is up from 1% in 2018. spentof big money being going big green. one thing to remember, government. they still have the capacity to accelerate or impede that process. >> thank you so much.
supriya, how are you integrating sustainability issues into the portfolio? oure are scaling up ambitions in this area. wens are demanding incorporate sustainability into how we invest. we have done this in a number of fronts. we have funds which are specifically focused on sustainability themes. clean energy and so forth. integrated broadly across a range of funds. starting with equities including fixed income. we have integrated. we also have those funds focused on sustainability. to havee will continue an outsized impact in how we allocate capital. >> i suppose one of the challenges is looking at company
disclosures and working out where there might be greenwashing. is that a challenge you are having to contend with? thet is a challenge across industry. hole, askingin the companies to meet a higher standard of disclosure. regard to a couple tostandards, with regards the carbon disclosure. that will force companies to be more transparent and drive them toward uniformed standards. autost is your take on and the shift to electric vehicles? we have seen a lot of tesla, the stock moving higher and higher. is that a stock or area that
would interest you in terms of the transition? the specific stock, what we are seeing across a number of sectors, this divergence between sustainability, winners and losers. tesla would fall into the former camp. that will broaden out eventually. that is perhaps one of the drivers behind the valuations. i think that will play out across a number of sectors. with regard to the emerging , electricev's vehicles, a major driver will be the eu new standards. they require carmakers to come to a much higher standard with regard to carbon emissions. that will drive innovation.
we will see how that plays out. >> staying with us. let's get the bloomberg business flash. bayer may be close to which a settlement in roundup. the court-appointed mediator said it could be weeks away from cancerng the 75,000 claims against the weed killer. that is the most double the case is disclosed in september. no details on the terms. sued forok is being anticompetitive behavior. for anticompetitive behavior. four companies are asking a order mark zuckerberg to give up control of the social media giant. and microsoft is not just going carbon neutral, it wants to go carbon negative. they are investing $1 billion to
back technology that removes carbon from the atmosphere. mit less efforts to e are not enough to prevent catastrophic climate change. >> thank you so much. french food retailers are in focus after slashing operating forecasts. we will bring you our morning call next. this is bloomberg. his is bloomberg.
material and might affect them at the open. both of the companies coming into play. bernstein says both of them are dealing with the tough domestic market. on the other side, protests have been paralyzing. we have seen the impact to the bottom line. >> annmarie hordern. here are views in contrast with boris johnson, who has insisted a deal is possible. supriya, you have moved u.k. stocks to overweight. extent, it has to do with the political winds we have had. the prospect of reduced political gridlock. that should drive some
stabilization of risk sentiments. deadlinethis looming at the end of the year. moment, we have a cheap market and a cheap currency. companies looking to buy assets in the u.k., i think that looks compelling. indeed, the makeup of the market. i am drawn to it. we do have an allocation. risks,s of the political we have a little bit of a window. the spring ofrds the year. the attention will turn to what is going on in the economy as well. we are likely to see -- i know the data has been weak.
closelyatching it especially with regard to where rates are going. broadly, you like financials and health care. in rates. the change of the pricing in the markets is interesting. is that something you would expect and how does it inform your view? i know you are generally not that positive. >> i spoke earlier, we are looking for positive views. that is not the case in the u.k. market. we are looking elsewhere. in terms of rates which underpin we think a little bit of an overpricing, the prospect of a rate cut, there have been some dovish comments. are going to have more fiscal
expansion. ,e are going to get pmi's confidence indicators. that will drive a little bit better outlook for the u.k.. we think ultimately there is keep theme they will going rather than reducing them. plaques how high do you see the pound going? -- >> how high do you see the pound going? is there a point where you start to savor the domestic stocks in the u.k. over the ftse 100? gone up and, it has bit. forum a valuation point, it could go higher. what is positioning. positioning has climbed. that is going to take a little bit of a breather for the time being and that is going to help large-cap equities. our senior multi-asset
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nejra: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." anna: i am anna edwards with matt miller in berlin. matt: today the markets say is there any and in sight? stocks hit all-time highs again on the back of solid data from the world's two largest economies as alphabet joins the two -- the trillion dollar club. the cash trade is less than one hour away. ♪ ♪ matt: steadying the ship. china se