tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg March 24, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EDT
it is 10:00 a.m. in new london, a clock p.m. in -- tua click p.m. london -- 2:00 p.m. in london. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. vincent: and i'm --guy: and i'm guy johnson, joining you from london. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: we have equities higher by 6% for the s&p 500, by about five .5% for the dow jones industrial average, and 5% for the nasdaq. the vix is down to 54. all eyes on washington, d.c. it looks like within the next few hours, there may be agreement upon a deal. the bill hassaying moved sufficiently to workers, so this is sending some waves through the markets. again, larry kudlow saying he expects parts of the economy to reopen at the end of the month. a little bit of a mixed message out of washington as to the health of the economy, but at least it looks like there's a
big stimulus deal coming, and in the words of may 2 pelosi, that could be within hours -- the words of nancy pelosi, that could be within hours. bloomberg u.s. dollar index is down by 0.9%. london in the in u.k. as well. guy: a lot going on in europe. pmi data out a little earlier on that were absolutely bad. we have never seen numbers this bad. despite this, we are seeing sterling rising today. we are seeing the euro catching a bid. but the pmi numbers really are portending to a very grim economic gdp data coming down the pike towards us. we have the stoxx 600 up by about 5.6%. bond yields selling off, so at least that seesaw is working. we are also seeing a pickup in
the price of brent crude. statement, the g7 calling on opec and opec+ to try to provide some stability and it comes to the crude markets as well because that has been a major catalyst for this downturn as well, the oil shock we are currently experiencing. a you say, the big news from european point of view is likely to come out of the united states after those dreadful pmi's from europe, and from your side of the pond as well. vonnie: service is being 90% of the u.s. economy come of that service's weak, not that we economy, that services data was particularly weak, not that we weren't expecting it. let's get to our panel of economists now. we have tom orlik joining us in rushngton, d.c. and jamie for bloomberg intelligence.
tom, let me come to you first. it looks like there are big efforts now underway in washington to get something done within a few hours. we also have potentially $10 billion worth of help from the federal reserve, massive stimulus coming together in the economy. what kind of impact could it have in the immediate term? tom: well, we will see what happens with this fiscal stimulus bill. we all very much hope it gets over the finish line. the numbers being talked about a very large numbers. we are talking about $2 trillion. that is the magnitude of fiscal stimulus which is going to be required. the federal reserve has also taken interest rates down to zero, restarted asset purchases, indicated there is no limit to the amount of assets can purchase, so assuming we get the
fiscal bill over the line, it is really there. the important thing to keep in mind is that this is macro stimulus to prevent things being worse than they inevitably are going to be, and to provide a springboard for recovery once the outbreak is under control. fiscal stimulus, no fiscal stimulus, we are still going into a deep contraction in the second quarter. is will then stimulus be sufficient to see a rebound in the second half. guy: let's talk about that from a european point of view. the data out of europe are bad. the pmi numbers this morning, absolutely horrific, particularly on the services side of the economy. my question to you, how easy is it to map across from the pmi data into gdp numbers, given the fact that we have basically no precedent for what is now
happening? reporter: it is exactly as you say. we've never seen this before, so it is hard to know exactly what they need when you've got 30, pmi atn to 30. we are used to looking at little wobbles up and down, where growth may be goes up by 1%, down by 1%. we are not used to looking at so we think the contraction is probably going to be larger. i would say that today's pmi data is firmly to the downside. vonnie: the fed can really buy anything at this point. you could say it's powers have been at least expanded a little bit. how much can the fed make up any gaps not being filled by washington, d.c.? the important
thing from the fed perspective right now is market functioning and financial stability. yes, the fed has indicated there's really no limit in their asset purchases now, but that is not really about providing additional stimulus to the economy. that's not the primary purpose at this point in time. long-term borrowing costs are already extremely low. there's not much that monetary policy, conventionally understood, can do at this point. what the fed is indicating by saying there is no limit to our asset purchases is that they are not going to let the financial andem roll out of control not going to let a debt crisis add to the problem, the already enormous problems being created by the virus and the lockdown. there's a sort of thought beginning to emerge, and
certainly the president is taking this on board in washington, that we don't want to make the cure worse than the disease. how do we actually figure out whether or not that is true at this point? if we shut down the entire u.s. economy, we don't know what the unintended consequent is are going to be. is it possible to answer that question? where think this is one we really listen to the scientific experts, and what the scientific experts are telling some if you don't employ fairly extreme social distancing measures, if you don't lock the economy down for a time, what you are going to see is an unconstrained outbreak and a number of deaths that is really going to be extremely high. from my perspective, that
of lockdown,riod no matter what the economic consequences, is justified. we will see where they had ministry should comes down, but i think it will be hard for them to move the economy quickly back to a normal footing if that comes with an uncontrolled outbreak and spiraling fatality numbers. vonnie: there's a lot of talk about when the economy should start to reopen, and most of the economy hasn't even closed yet, particularly if you look globally. look at the u.k. there's all sorts of controversy today about the tube and how full it is. when will these economies actually shut down? at that point, will we expect the data to be exponentially worse? think for the u.k., we are seeing people moving into full lockdown.
people are being advised to stay-at-home, and they are willing to add force that the laws. so i think people are taking it seriously, which means that economic consequent is are about to become very large. our u.k. economist thinks the economy is going to contract by about 10% in the second quarter as a direct consequent of these measures. on the question earlier about the cure being worse than the disease, i think one thing to take into account is the of employment tends to be related to long-term unemployment. so if you get on top of the lockdown and do it quickly, perhaps some of the cost along with big recessions might be smaller. guy: can i take us onto the continent now and talk about what is happening in the euro zone? , reallyzone pmi data quite grim. but we are starting to see the european nations may be getting
their act together a little bit more in terms of fiscal stimulus. certainly, we are hearing positive noises coming out of germany from the fiscal point of view and providing some sort of rescue package for italy. in the u.s., we are going to get a package later today. the u.k. is doing 9%, 10% of gdp. where is the euro zone? is the euro zone behind the curve in terms of fiscal numbers we are hearing? jamie: i think europe is getting its act together, actually. we are now seeing a package which sounds around 150 billion euros. that is probably proportionate to the size of the shock. it is round about the size of the package you would need to do that. we think germany is there, france is sort of there. they've announced 45 billion euros, so probably a little further to go. italy is a little bit further behind. but i agree that the u.k. is
basically doing what it out to be doing. the size of the package is certainly very large, and monetary stimulus has been substantial. vonnie: gentlemen, thank you for your contributions this morning. that is tom orlik and jamie rush. mitch mcconnell is speaking right now, debate having resumed in the senate. earlier come on a people of see telling cnbc she believes there will be a deal within hours. she used the word imminent. right now, stocks are rallying. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> weeding at all of the above -- we need all of the above approach, and that is what our framework is for. ♪
live from london, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn new york. this is "bloomberg markets." let's get a market check with kailey leinz. kailey: we find ourselves rebounding on a tuesday from a monday selloff. stocks are bouncing back from their lowest level since 2016. we are up by about 5% or more on all of the major benchmarks. the dax is up more than 7%. you are starting to see crude rollover. the beauty i prices in the u.s. were up as much as 4%, now only about 0.25%. despite the fact that crude is losing a little but of steam, energy is the best performing sector in the s&p 500 today, on pace for its best day since 2008. the most beaten up stocks are seeing the biggest bids in this risk on rally. the likes of airline and cruise line stocks are higher. united is up the better part of
20%, on pace for its best day since 2009, despite the fact that airlines could lose $250 billion in sales do these -- could lose $50 billion in sales due to the coronavirus. halliburton up by about 30% today, another beaten up stock. it has lost about 3/4 of its value in the last three months. i want to focus really quickly on the dollar because we are seeing dollar we relative to g10 emerging-market currency. the bloomberg dollar spot index down by about 1% this morning. that puts it on pace for the worst day since ronnie 18 -- since 2018, and shows that some of the dollar stress in this market is starting to ease. vonnie: thank you for that. for more now on these markets, let's welcome david bailin, chief investment officer at citi private bank. generallyelief today,
it is just a little fall -- a little thaw. in general, the stimulus in discussion at the moment that mitch mcconnell is speaking about right now, will that be enough to save not just the economy, but the financial economy? david: well, it is exactly what is necessary, a very large stimulus package that is very broad. what is great is it touches upon all different sectors of the economy. individuals, small businesses, large businesses, hospitals, as well as states and municipalities. so it covers the gamut. it has good rules around how the moneys are distributed. it is very large, between $2 trillion and $2.2 trillion, and that is good. it is probably not all that is going to be necessary, but if you go back to 2008 and 2009, it took 14 months for give -- for the government to put in
place all of the different programs in order to deal with the financial crisis. it has taken the u.s. just several weeks to actually do what it has done now, and the fed has actually done even more in the last of weeks than it did in the 2008 financial crisis. we are seeing a lot come together very quickly, and i think that is very encouraging, and probably why markets are up so much today. vonnie: so tell us about the credit markets. we are seeing a bit of relief there. is that an indication that with the fed has done up to now has been enough? david: well, the fed has made all of the right signals. the credit markets have been the most disturbing part of the crash of the last couple of weeks. we have seen difficulties in the municipal market in the united states, and some of the investment grade markets, certainly in the high-yield market, and right now in the mortgage market, where we have lots of different difficulties and a lot of margin calls and illiquidity taking place. some of this is due to the fact
that the banks themselves are restricted in terms of the amount of capital they can deploy in making markets, but the fact is that the fixed income markets have to heal first for we have any real equity rally in the long-term. i would say today is a bit of a relief, but we have a ways to go in terms of the fixed income market so far. just to recap, you are saying that the forced liquidation is not at an end yet? i've heard a number of people suggesting from a stockmarket point of view that that period is beginning to wind down. david: i think the last couple of weeks have seen a bunch of actions that indicate everyone was looking for cash, and that took place in the form of mutual funds that had to liquidate some less liquid positions, and lots of funds themselves that had to reduce the leverage in those funds. that has taken place.
saw a lot of activity in etf's similarly that was discordant. i do think that there is somewhat more ahead of us. i don't think markets in the fixed income space quebec to normal right away. but i think the fed being there, and european and other central banks being there, is going to be very important in creating normal markets and allowing that to really lead us forward into the future. if you take a look at spreads, we can still see a variety of different spread actions, and the less liquid security and higher yield securities, those that are more risky. we will not see the same kind of support we saw in 2008, 2009. i think some of the markets that are not going to be supported still have a fairly bleak couple of months coming up. this impact is going to be far deeper, far shorter, and far more consequential over the next quarter than anything we saw in the global financial crisis. so central banks, with what
is happening with the functioning of markets, certainly you are seeing that maybe with the dollar swap lines and the pressure coming off the dollar. let's talk about how we figure out, as you say, how the economic story is going to progress from here. we have seen very bad pmi data from europe and from the united states. i am trying to figure out how i relate what is happening with the number of cases we are seeing to the impact that we are going to see on assets. it does strike me, and we have seen this with u.k. assets, that the market kind of signals that it doesn't believe the government has got a grip on things. u.k. assets fell pretty sharply. the president is talking about trying to reopen the u.s. economy a little faster than most people anticipated. if the result of that is that we see higher case numbers, how are financial markets going to react stateside? david: i think they are going to react pretty poorly to that.
in order for us to think about this, you have a health crisis, not a financial crisis, and you want to keep it that way, meaning you want to have the health crisis update and you want to see case numbers fall in the united states. that is why this concept of a larger quarantine effort in many different formats is so critical. one of the things that would be great to see is the federal government setting standards, guidelines, and expectations for what would be a nationwide action, the way that boris johnson and other you european leaders have done. that would make a lot of sense to us. but letting the states decide when they do it would be a really negative sign, and our view, in the event that the president sends mixed messages in terms of people getting back to work, and obviously the health consequent as of that would extend and elongate the financial situation, the financial crisis that we could have in the event that it was extended. i think those things are hand-in-hand, and in terms of
the data, we should expect to see the worst data we have ever seen over the course of the next couple of months. we can all guess as to what that is. we have guest could be the private bank, it could be 20 to 30 million jobs temporarily furloughed in the united states, and then coming back online after that. that assumes a full shutdown in major industries like travel, and obviously airlines, and auxiliary industries also impacted negatively. then we would expect a recovery. the key is the confidence, to your point, how much people believe government has at hand. i just want to say that when you look at this historically, what happened in europe in terms of its response, what is happening in the united states, the plan looks to be much faster than anything we saw in the global financial crisis, and that is an encouraging sign. david, stick around. we need to carry on this conversation.
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn new york. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: general motors is tapping its revolving credit line. the automaker plans to draw down about $16 billion, also suspending guidance for this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. chevron became the latest oil company to take an ax to its budget, cutting capital expenses by $4 billion and suspending share buybacks. weeks ago, chevron ceo mike wirth pledged to keep the buybacks through a downturn in oil prices, but this month has forced him to change his mind.
luxury retailer neiman marcus talking with vendors about filing for bankruptcy protection. no formal decisions have yet been made. we will be following that story closely. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. let's take a look at those u.s. majors right now. we are seeing a multi-percentage gain for the s&p 500, dow and nasdaq. dow, and fact. boeing is rallying by 20%. the vix trading just a bit lower today, in the mid-50's. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ "one more time" by daft punk ]
we are back with david bailin, citi private bank cio. i guess the q. wee -- the key question right now, when do i reenter the equity market? what advice are you getting them? david: some clients have already begun to reenter the market a little bit. i think there is a different between clients with existing portfolios and plans with new portfolios. for an existing portfolio, as rotating into fixed income. for new clients, they can put in a little bit now and go over time. when we look back at the financial crisis, the time from when the big policies were put in, which was i think in october of 2008, to the time that markets actually bought them, which was march of 2009, it takes time. we need to see what happens in terms of the economy, the
ability to shut it down and open it back up. we need to see the effects of the onus, whether it is something that is contained -- the illness, whether it is something that is contained. it is quite a bit we need to see before somebody goes all in. there are parts of the market that are most distressed that will come back, but for our investors, what we are really focused on is companies with strong balance sheets, where the revenues were not directly impacted or not going to be that impacted by these events, and companies well-positioned for the future in terms of their technology or their relative industry position. what we are worried about our companies that really don't have that balance sheet strength, and we could see a lot of distress over the next couple of months, regardless of the passage of the bill. a lot abouthearing fallen angels, and you have to wonder whether the fed can protect some of those companies from those downgrades. i am curious as well about how
you tracked this geographically. the lockdown in wuhan is going to end fairly soon. the chinese equity market is beginning to outperform. the way the virus has worked, it has gone from china to europe, the epicenter here, and at some point, the epicenter is going to be transferred to the united states. do i thing about progressively reentering equity markets from china, kind of going east to west? isid: in general, that exactly right. the diversification you are going to see within your portfolio will be useful by doing that. i did get news today, i should remind you there are actions still taking place in hong kong and singapore today, where they are restricting even further social activities and bars,rants, pubs, and just as we are here. there is concern about reemergence of the virus, so i do think that there economy will be tamped down for a while. i don't think it is going to
come back first. in terms of industries themselves, china and the pan-asian market is itself going to come back first based on everything we are seeing. the steps that were taken in japan, south korea, and china have all been more effective than those in europe and in the united states. very different policies, and therefore, i think they are going to have a more robust recovery. china itself has got an yarmuth -- has got an enormous domestic market it has to turn back on before it turns on its export market. i think there are a lot of things one can acquire in china that can go before those in the western economies. vonnie: what lessons do we learn out of all of this, when this is all over, assuming we go back to some kind of normal, or at least the norm we used to know? what do companies take away from it? do they need to keep more cash on their balance sheets? do they need to do something different to withstand shocks like this? david: as you've mentioned, i
think the first thing is really a policy, the absence of the ability to respond to what is effectively a pandemic come of it could very well have been a biological issue, biological warfare issue. the key is to be ready from a government response to deal with this type of emergency. i think that is really a government and business issue. when you think about what this teaches us, it is the need to is howst in time, which the economy ran before, an economy that is global with very thin inventories, that was perfect if you wanted to optimize profit and minimize inventory, but there are going to have to be steps taken by companies to think about their supply chains. i think those supply chains are going to shorten. we already saw this trend underway. citi did research to take a look at the supply chains in asia and saw they were already shortening as companies built a variety of different plants in local markets. we are going to see more of that. in terms of balance sheet
strength, you said it. we are going to need to see a lot of companies being more conservative than they might have been before. vonnie: david, thank you for your time today. that is david bailin, citi private bank cio. house speaker nancy pelosi says she is optimistic a deal can be reached in the next few hours on a $2 trillion. . stimulus plan i spoke yesterday with bill ackman about the epidemic and how long businesses should actually be closed. >> it doesn't make sense to wait 30 more days and have 30 more states proceed. what you want is at one moment, hard stop, shut as much of the country down as you can, every the growth of the infection, continue to rest on testing, and then we open the country again. vonnie: joining us by phone is bloomberg's anna edgerton, who
leads our congressional coverage. it seems like the president hasn't actually embraced this idea yet of closing things down beyond 15 days. he is still sticking with the 15 days, and getting the economy back up in segments. is there any indication that the president might change his mind? guessit is always hard to what the president is going to do, but it looks like things are moving quickly in congress. nancy pelosi had a much more optimistic tone then she did last night. we are also hearing from the senate that they are getting closer to a deal. treasury secretary steven mnuchin has given some indication that some of the main sticking point for democrats have been resolved. the big question we are looking at immediately is how they are going to pass this. it depends whether or not they can get unanimous consent for this to get through the senate and the house quickly. that could move this bill very fast, which would be a much better scenario than actually having house members come back
to washington, holding a vote in the chamber, and that process would take a couple of days if they want to do it that way. is it possible that we are going to get further fiscal stimulus coming out of the united states, or do you think this is it? it seemed quite hard to get this bill done. obviously, getting a further bill beyond this would be even harder. is this it? aboutthere has been talk a phase four stimulus bill. the one we are talking about now is being referred to as the phase three bill, the third measure that congress has passed. they are looking at putting a settlement to appropriations bill in this phase three bill, which is something they considered for phase four. it really depends how the economy looks. they are talking about this round of stimulus being intended to get us through the next 10 to 12 weeks, so it will depend with the economy looks like, if it looks like more stimulus is needed, and what congress looks like.
we have one senator and two members of the house who have tested positive for the coronavirus, so there is a big concern about bringing lawmakers back to washington and having people working in the capital building, where staff numbers and lawmakers have tested positive. vonnie: the $500 billion what to businesses, is there any clarity to what that would look like? will there be conditions attached? anna: what we are hearing this morning is there is a $500 billion fund would be mostly for loans and loan guarantees that would have an oversight panel, similar to the tarp situation after the 2008 crisis. that would consist of an inspector general and a five person panel appointed by congress. that is according to house speaker nancy pelosi, but we have confirmed that from some treasury sources. details lefte some to be worked out. president is talking
about the fact that he doesn't want the cure to be worse than the disease. we got larry kudlow talking about trying to reopen parts of the economy by month's end. how realistic is this? anna: it is not really up to them. we see governors taking their own steps, and people making decisions for themselves about how much they want to stay isolated within their houses, how much they can stay isolated within their houses. even if the president said the economy is open, go back to work , it is really going to be up to states, localities, even individual companies whether or not they want to send their workers back to the office, send people back into the street. whether or not people feel comfortable when this threat is still out there. will be the most important item that we should look for out of the end result of the stimulus package? the nancy pelosi package looks to be 1400 pages. there is a phenomenal amount of
input into that. some of it doesn't really even have anything to do with the economy. but the parts that have to do with the economy, where should we look to see how the divide is bridge between the house and the senate? anna: it has been a lot to weed through, and a filet something -- and definitely something we are trying to make sure. there's three centerpieces in both proposals, and the main difference is in the details. one is the direct payments to individuals. $1500, that is $1200 or whether or not it goes to all taxpayers or even individuals like retirees and the unemployed. be $350nd piece would billion for small businesses that would initially go out in the form of loans to help companies, small businesses make payroll, pay their rent, get through some of those fixed costs while they are not up and running. that could eventually be
converted to grants if these small businesses keep their employees on payroll. the third part would be this $500 billion fund that could go to corporations, states and localities. there are a few other measures we are looking at, such as extra funds for the petroleum reserves, how they support for the airline industry would be structured, whether that would be grants or loans. it is a lot to weed through, and we are hoping that as soon as we get the final version, we will get the details ironed out. guy: on a different but related subject, do we think the p eace has broken out between the president and the federal reserve? i understand the president called jay powell to commend him on the action taken. we think the president will stop having a pop at the fed on an almost daily basis? anna: that was a really interesting comment from the president yesterday, and i guess encouraging, as you want to see the president not putting that
kind of pressure on the monetary policy. but the fed has been really corrective and doing absolutely everything it can to make sure it is getting as much money into the economy as possible, especially as the fiscal measures have taken a little longer to get through congress. that is certainly what the president has been appreciative of, but it will were made to be will remain to be seen how he interacts from here on out. he has often changed his attitudes towards different institutions, so it is something we will keep our eye on. vonnie: anna edgerton, thank you. some breaking news now, another country has imposed a nationwide lockdown. india imposing a nationwide lockdown for 21 days. interesting to see how people are landing on the number of days, between 15 here in the united states, 21 in india, people calling for 30. it is so interesting to watch. but again, and yet on lockdown for 21 days. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ next hour, up in the the 3m chairman and ceo, mike roman, on the coronavirus crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn with guy johnson in london. this is "bloomberg markets." let's get to the first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: treasury secretary steven mnuchin reportedly agreed to a key democratic demand and talks on the stimulus package.
he ok'd oversight provisions for a $500 billion part of the belt. democrats complaining businesses would get money with no strings attached. now to italy, considering imposing fines of up to $3200 for those who violate the nationwide lockdown orders. police may also seize the vehicles of anyone caught violating these restrictions. prime minister giuseppe conte is banning movements inside the country, and shut down almost all industrial production. the coronavirus death toll surges across much of europe. one country seems to be bucking the deadly trend. 25,000 has more than infections, yet the mortality rate is only 0.4%, according to data compiled by bloomberg from state health authorities. compare that with italy, where 9.5% of people confirmed to have the infection have died. officials say that is mainly because in germany, more than 80% of those infected are under the age of 60.
we end with the price of oil, rallying for the second day in a row. pastes rising around 5% $24 a barrel. trump administration says an alliance with the saudis is one idea under consideration to stabilize prices. you can get the most up-to-date information on your bloomberg terminal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. let's get to our stock of the hour now. here is dave wilson. about ihs to talk market, a financial information company. they put out purchasing manager indexes, which have become pretty widely followed in the marketplace. they have the auto information service carfax. they put out a whole lot of information about the oil and gas business. they came out with their fiscal
first quarter results, and it has gone over so well that these are the biggest gains since the cup he went public -- since the company went public. seconds beating for the quarter in a row, even in the face of relative weakness in the resources area. younue growth, which take out dealmaking, only 7.25% for that segment, and yet overall organic revenue up 6%. planning cost cuts, no surprise there. they are cutting executive pay, having to cancel events because of the coronavirus, and they figure that is going to hurt revenue by about $50 million this coming quarter. takedown adjusted earnings by nine cents a share. nonetheless, they see the possibility of getting back to maybe 5% or more organic revenue growth by the end of this year,
so on top of that, they are paying a dividend for the first they stop stock buybacks. put it all together, this company's results definitely well received. guy: we will leave it there. thank, indeed. dave wilson -- thank you very much, indeed. dave wilson with our stock of the hour. the world's largest sporting event has officially been delayed due to the coronavirus. japan andy international olympic committee -- japan and the international olympic committee agreed to push back the tokyo olympics. our correspondent joins us now on the phone to discuss this unprecedented decision. let's talk about the implications of this. we are waiting to see exactly what this is going to mean, but they are talking about an
iceberg, the application being that there are significant unforeseen circumstances or implications of this that are still yet to be felt. talk us through how difficult a decision this was. reporter: there's a reason these things take 10 plus years to plan, because the summer olympics especially our this incredible undertaking that is a mix of billion-dollar companies that pay sponsorships, media companies, and millions of hotel room nights booked years in advance, venues that have to be built for a specific time, and then either torn down or repurposed. the amount of business ties and contracts that need to be unwound, pushed back, postponed, rewritten, it is really head spinning right now, and i think that is the reason it took so long to make it as is and that a lot of people thought was the pretty obvious choice. vonnie: it is a big nuisance, but in terms of actual money, does it mean a great deal? if it is postponed until next year, the incoming and outgoing
revenue should be the same, but just next year, right? eben: that is the question. for companies that are pretty deep pocketed, they are going to be fine. there are probably caterers on the ground in tokyo for whom the two month contract to service deal epic games was the difference between making money and losing money this year, or maybe making money or going out of business this year. i think for a lot of people for whom the people on the ground in tokyo this year would kind of make or break their year, this could end up being a catastrophic incision, let alone from a business standpoint, the tourism across tokyo. if these gains happen at some point next year and they are just as popular, and as many people watch those on tv and as many people go to tokyo, a lot of the companies involved here are going to be ok. but there are tons of contractors on the ground in tokyo that this may have material impact on their business. vonnie: at the very least, it is
♪ live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. i johnson is with me in london. this is "bloomberg markets." guy: time now for futures in focus. joining us over the phone is oleman. clearly, we have been in a phase of forced selling due to margin calls and other factors. do you think we've dealt with that? do you think that phase has now been cleared out? todd: i do. i think today's move is bigger than a margin call selling.
we had that 1450 level, and the market reverse very quickly. the $100 move we saw overnight was probably a little more complicated, as there were some price integrity issues possibly coming out of london, and you had to go where the price was right, and it looked like it was a cash versus futures price discrepancy there. that took us all the way to 1700, and now we are back up a little bit, which is normal. we need to stay north in order to keep this momentum we got overnight. guy: do you think the dollar is topped out? the fed has put a lot of swap lines into the market to try to make dollars available around the world. do you think that is working? todd: i think it is. in the short-term, it will absolutely work. it is the long-term effects, the unintended consequences. how can the dollar recover from something like this? we look at the dollar trade in the month of march, we see it
rallying as the fed cuts rates, adds new programs, now looking theasically backstopping capital markets. is it the dollar strength we are seeing, or relative strength for other currencies who may be don't have that type of monetary power? dollar has if the the downside, but should remain firm here. leave it there. thank you very much, indeed. joining us from ambrosino brothers. this is bloomberg. ♪
headquarters in new york to our audience worldwide, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power." stocks are rallying today. there was renewed hope that congress was finally going to pass the stimulus package on capitol hill. that's get a check on markets with kailey leinz. it looks a little good. kailey: there's a lot of green on my screen. of course, we hit the limit up in futures trading overnight and have really been going higher ever since. a lot of hope that stimulus is finally coming from capitol hill. we haven't gotten it yet, but the market is placing their bets. one caveat is that this isn't unusual. we have seen it consistently over the course of the past several weeks. what is different if you are seeing confirmation of how risk on the rally is when you look at other asset classes. volatility is actually more subdued. the vix is lower for a fourth straight day to the 80 we saw last week. that