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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  June 4, 2020 10:00pm-12:00am EDT

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weekly gain. billionaires out of battle, elon musk jabs at jeff bezos, saying amazon should be broken up. not a lot of visibility in terms of conviction today. the momentumed, seems to be stalling when it comes to risk assets in global equities as we end the week with the best week in two months. perhaps it is time to take a pause amid the euphoria. jakarta coming online flat. nifty futures pointing positive despite what we saw yesterday where stocks moved lower in the u.s. session. the jobs report is looming as well. we get that bazooka from the ecb that perhaps is enough of a tailwind for markets to move higher.
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we are also watching currency, the dollar has been the big story this week. the euro as well as its counterpart. we are taking a pause from the rally after the ecb, but if we see a gain today, that would take that streak for the longest in 16 years of nine days straight. so far it is flat. flirting withlar $.70 for the first time this year. the dollar weakening across the board with the exception of the yen. dollar-yen, and offshore hovering. we are watching the bond markets as well. the mliv question is, the yields we are seeing, will they disrupt the equity rally? the u.s. 10 year -- after the u.s. jobless numbers that fell again, treasuries
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--ing the worst brent slipping after they did extend cuts after a breakthrough with iraq. tom: the european central bank did put its money where its mouth is, announcing a bigger than expected increase in emergency bond buying, responding to what it calls the unprecedented contraction in the euro area economy. kathleen hays has the story. what is driving this aggressive move by the ecb? kathleen: indeed, bigger than expected. christine lagarde, still a relatively new president of the european central bank showing she is serious about doing whatever is needed to fight this pandemic. they boosted the pandemic emergency purchase program, buy
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600 billion euros. the market was looking for an increase of 500 billion. the total is 1.3 trillion euros. answering questions to reporters, she stressed everybody is on board with this, countering earlier in the week that many members wanted to wait before committing to this further step in the stimulus, but she also said the reason for it is a tepid response but the euro zone economy to all the stimulus already in place. let's listen to a christine lagarde said. >> we judged it was necessary to it was a unanimous view in the governing council that action had to be taken. of that inflation outlook, and given a mandate a price stability, action had to be taken.
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kathleen: speaking of inflation, she noted it will only accelerate slowly. any measures you look at, well under 1%. she said by 2022 it will be a 1.3%. the gdp forecast for the year could be down by 12.6 if the second wave of the virus hits. [indiscernible] it is from the desire to be preemptive. people are stressing german stimulus and the eu looking at a stimulus package -- yvonne: kathleen, i am sorry to interrupt, but your audio is looking week. we are trying to adjust your audio. lessig at first word news first.
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tokyo reporting 28 new coronavirus cases for the fourth day in a row of double-digit. 128 new cases in the past week, the biggest seven-day rise since mid-may. singapore is urging other challenge from covid-19 with job losses on the horizon. malaysia reported its biggest daily rise in new virus cases since the pandemic first erupted. will's growing the u.k. crash out of the european union with no trade deal. besides remain far apart on crucial issues with the deadline for agreement looming at the end of this month. final negotiations on current talks or suffer friday. boris johnson and eu commission had are due to hold talks later on this month. china is vowing to ensure stability in hong kong amid rising tensions over beijing's control of the city.
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the pboc says friendly support of hong kong is a financial center, and recognizes the city is a customs territory apart from the mainland. as china imposes sweeping new security laws. india cost tens of millions of jobs in record low economic activity, and the biggest earnings slump in six years. profits fell 15% last quarter from data compiled by bloomberg. those numbers have reported so far with communications, energy, and industrials as the worst sectors that have been hit. i think we fixed the issues with kathleen, let's bring her back. kathleen, you were talking about the ecb. let's talk about what is ahead with the u.s. jobs report. you have the ecb and
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the eu and germany jumping in to stem lather economies. and the same problems face the u.s., and that is why there is so much focus on this jobs report, because jobs are declining in the millions in the month of may. not as much as before. unemployment rates will hit levels we have not seen since the great depression. we have a chart to show you to show you the comparison. april payrolls were down 20.5 million. may, 8 million. unemployment up to 19.4%, we have not seen that level since the great oppression. average weekly hours increased a little bit. earnings will be strong again because low-wage workers have been laid off. around the payrolls, the jobless came down to 1.9 million,
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less than 2.1 million from the week before, but if you add them 8l up, you will still see million worker loss. payroll was much less of a drop than people thought, 3 million instead of 9 million. traders are looking closely at the payroll number to see what it shows. , presidents numbers today that big story the trump team is looking at another stimulus plan up to $1 trillion. the house passed a stimulus that the senate rejected. trump wants infrastructure spending and more benefits for workers. you have an election coming up. mitch mcconnell saying there will not be any bill proposed before the july recess, so maybe
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by the end of the month. a little politics creeping into this question of jobs and the economy in the wake of the virus . it is one more thing to be watching out for july. hays,: that was kathleen with that u.s. jobs report. still ahead, billionaire breakup. we have more details later on this hour. week in we wrap up the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: global stocks are on track for their best week in two months, but concerns this rally may have gone too far. richard harris, ceo, port shelter investment management joins us from hong kong. there is a debate about where markets will go. are tooy investors complacent and are ignoring technicals, showing things too heated, ignoring valuations and bad news around the world. another camp says, i have total confidence on central banks intervention. where do you stand in this debate? everyone has confidence on the central bank, and if you look at it, it is extraordinary. increase fromt an the ecb, 600 billion.
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if you remember from 2008, that was 758. this is adding a drop in the bucket. if you look at $10 trillion of liquidity, people know it will go into assets. asset price inflation. bigre seeing recovery, numbers, economies recovering, jobs slowing down. all of these positive bits of good news look like good numbers. we are in the middle of a surge that people have some optimism coming out of the coronavirus. the liquidity and the surge are causing this rush. yvonne: what is the strategy for you? , iteems the rally in asia is still the tech giants like samsung and tencent fueling
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gains. do you stay with these quality names or is it time to rotate? richard: i think we are seeing the whole economy pivot. think of people working at home, there will be some people on the say working 20% who from home is fine. they cane doing it and do it fine. we will see hit on parts of the economy. estate, office real estate, what will happen to public transport? these things on the margin will be hit as the economy pivot's. we are seeing people move into tech. now we are seeing rotation as people are saying there stocks like boeing which is too cheap, and other airlines which seem to be at death's door.
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also investors have to be careful of those stocks that will be losers from the pivots. which do you support the view? it is time to shift to cyclicals, or a more cautious view suggest you want to remain defensive in be hedging your portfolio? richard: yes, those people saying that are right, if you do ,nything based on fundamentals what we used to call rational economics, it looks too expensive and should come back. these are not rational times. these markets are driven by liquidity which is driven by essentially printed money. the central-bank so sterilized that in due course, but they did not do it last time. we are releasing massive
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inflation of asset prices. there are big dangers out there. i would tend to have a conservative portfolio. tech stocks are fine. need to be in the right stocks, in the right markets, looking forward to 2025-2026 and industries then. tom: what are your views on hong kong? we have this tussle between london and beijing, the concerns about the security law, the national anthem law. are you concerned about the prospects of hong kong as a financial sector and rethink any investment you have in the city? richard: hong kong is changing, no doubt about that. .t is administered by beijing the major companies, we have seen management removed last
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year. hong kong bank has to fall in line, and so do other banks. organizationry of rather than opinion. in the area,ork hong kong is changing. one thing that needs to be remembered, it is a great place to do business. low taxes, skilled population, good corporate law which will be run by the commercial courts. it is a good place, but on the margin we may well see people move a few people to singapore. that is on the margin and will be damaging. people need to factor that in. saying as theu economy slumps, the financial sector can stay strong businesses and banks in a way
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active to china and money there? richard: i think the financial sector is ok because of the nature of its business. key threats to hong kong, one is the possibility it loses its special status. exports may be tariffed, and that will reduce activity in the logistic sector. that is an important thing. the other thing is britain and the u.s. to allow access to hong education and to citizenship. believe the biggest danger hong kong faces is the brain drain of young people who say we will not have much opportunity here, and have a way to go somewhere else, and we will do it. if there is any threat, some imports from the u.s. and u.k.
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providing passports. innne: how do you play that a market narrative? do you focus on the china exposed names and avoid domestic hong kong? richard: domestic hong kong will probably get hit. the market as a whole is not domestic hong kong anymore, it is broadly global china. people are looking at the markets in the hang seng already in that way. yvonne: before you go, what are you watching out for in terms of market risks? if anything can bring down the markets, will it be the u.s.-china trade tensions? richard: there is always a risk, the unknown unknowns are good to look at. the biggest thing is maybe a
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slightly longer narrative, as andgs start to top out recovery eases and people go back to work -- maybe we will have a second phase, but i think that will be controlled -- we have all the good news at the moment, the question is where will the good news come from as people remain unemployed and earnings under pressure? tom: have a great weekend. richard harris, ceo, port shelter investment management, joining us from hong kong. coming up, do not miss our lineup of gas to discuss the u.s. jobs report, those interviews later today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: latest business
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american airlines announced capacity will increase dramatically next month. american will boost flights by 74% in july to 4000 a day, up from 2300 in june. 40% of what it was a year ago. passengers are keen to get back in the air after the coronavirus lockdown. uncertainty surrounding business , and indication it is not benefiting from the work at home era. they tried to strengthen its position during the coronavirus lockdown. its app is a combination of an office chat room with an automated workflow platform. with jeffin a feud bezos, saying it is time to break up amazon. he tweeted monopolies are wrong
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while tagging jeff bezos. tom: we are continuing to watch the protests in the united states, people protest in new york. up.can see police lined this is a live shot from new york. there is a curfew in place, but protesters remain on the streets. pushback from the former defense mattis accuseds in criticize president trump's handling of the protests. these are peaceful protests it seems in new york city, and "the new york times" reporting a
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number of people have been with no provocation by law enforcement in that city. this is a story we will keep across, memorials in minneapolis for george floyd, the man killed at the hands of white police officers in that city. this is the scene in new york currently. despite what we are seeing on the streets, it is much more peaceful than earlier this week. new york mayor bill de blasio is targeting the july relaunch of outdoor dining in manhattan. taking a look at markets, once again it is a mixed chair when it comes to asian equities. markets like the philippines and indonesia selling off after signs that technicals are looking too far. taiwan is looking good today.
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the dollar as well. it continues to be weakening especially with the euro rally, but that has taken a pause today. we see the correlations with the euro and turn sees at some highs. see the fixedo income space selloff across the region. the aussie 10 year yield is basis points.ur some of thee for worst performance for treasuries in three weeks. oil continues to be a big focus after there was an opec deal struck between opec-plus. iraq finally playing ball when it comes to the complaint issues. it seems this rally also stalling, some questioning whether the one-month extension
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is enough for the rally to have some legs. plenty more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you say what you're in the mood for,
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tom: happy friday. it is 10:29 a.m. in beijing and hong kong. here are your first word headlines. applications for u.s. unemployment aid rose again last week. a slight slowdown in numbers. showing the economy is still being hammered by the virus shutdown. initial jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since mid-march. separate readings show u.s. trade in goods and services plunged in april to their lowest in a decade. european central bank is stepping up its central -- it's
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response to the contraction in the euro zone with a bigger than expected interest -- an expected increase in the bond buying program. trillion to at least june of next year. italian bonds rallied on the news while the euro reversed losses. christine lagarde says action has to be taken. extendus is set to production cuts after a breakthrough in high-stakes negotiations and could sign a deal this weekend. russia and saudi arabia are said to have clinched agreement with iraq home of the pair accused of shirking its share of restrictions. the agreement still to be ratified would see opec-plus extend its record production curve for another month until the end of july. myanmar says it will hold general elections later this year, confirming expectations for a vote at the end of 2020. the national league for democracy scored a landslide
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victory in 2015 as myanmar emerged from five decades of military rule. allegations of genocide over the treatment of the minority have overshadowed her administration. yvonne: another check of markets. the theme of today and the last 24 hours is curb your enthusiasm because we are seeing mostly lower and it comes to asian equities after global stocks had a studying rally -- a stunning rally the last two months. a seventh day of losses for your bloomberg dollar index. still giving support to submarkets. down 2% in p comp manila. jakarta falling 1%. nifty futures looking positive for the mumbai session. it is once again the currency we are focusing on. the euro rally taking a bit of a breather. the dollar once again down.
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u.s. futures are slightly positive. the aussie 10 year yield still supportive, above the 1% threshold. brent crude pretty much flat. we are hovering around 40 bucks per brent -- 40 bucks for brent. tom: let's look at another investment option for chinese investors in the property sector. china started a read trial in late april focusing on raising capital for infrastructure projects as part of the plans to offset the coronavirus fallout. the strategy could alleviate growing debt and capital pressures on the state owned enterprises and global -- state owned enterprises. -- goldman sachs says it could one day surpass the u.s. in be worth as much as $3 trillion joining us. is stanley -- joining us is stanley. the firm has invested a hundred 42 million u.s. dollars in
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china's cause i read market. thank you for joining us. what is the significance of this move? why are they doing it now? who is likely to take advantage of the changes? >> good morning. it is a great question. basically, i think you just described the background. after the coronavirus, there will be a stimulus package to be implemented. on thes focused a lot infrastructures. as a background, china has been discussing the real read for the last 15 years but has not come to a reality. now the timing is right because i think this is a tendency for investment for many of the chinese investors that they can invest. the sponsors will be able to get their capital back.
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to reinvest mostly in the infrastructure. during this trial period, only certain sectors are allowed to issue the real rate. how much tom: demand you expect -- tom: how much demand you expect to see for these products and where is he going to come from? is it going to be institutional or mom-and-pop investors? >> because of -- due to the trial, the authority is very cautious. slice is offered said the individual investors. to keepsors required 20% of the offering. out of the remaining 80%, 80% ghost institutional. individuals. 16% of offerings are able to be invested in individual investors.
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in the fact that none of the products are listed yet, i think it will need some time to see how the market develops. as you said, these are more yourstructure trusts than typical rates you see in the market. it is not including residential and commercial assets. does this surprise some of the cash-strapped policy developers from access to this market when they need it the most? is theink -- the message deleveraging is -- arearoperty market is an the government wanted to keep a close watch, enough to fuel into new capital. this time, the trial is focused on infrastructure.
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assets.o include parks, the innovation parks. they are also included. basically, we can see the government really wanted to use investment. an not only for the institutional investors but also the individual investors. at the same time, they will be able to provide the capital to the sectors that need the cash the most, which is in line with the coming stimulus package. what about the liquidity concerns? that was part of the reason there was a delay in the rate market. the lack of liquidity of underlying assets. have regulators resolve the issue? china in my view --
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there is no shortage of liquidity. if you look at the management scale, it is huge. major banks, they are managing trillions of asset management. there is a very limited channel they can put money to use. that is why a lot of people investing in p2p and people investing in the shuttle banking products. because of the deleveraging, the cost of the p2p products, it is necessary and -- necessary for a new product for investors to look at. at least that can provide a stable cash flow to them and also give them potential of a capital gain. i think had this product,
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because the liquidities is there, the liquidity meaning the amount that can invest in the sector is there. this product also provided liquidity to the infrastructures and the assets, which lack liquidity. to recycle capital in the past. -- ais naturally a very --ely to let the products be issued in the market. is there a potential risk this could lead to inflated property prices further down the line? >> i actually do not think it will because we look at the requirement. first of all, the sectors are quite limited. centers,ctures, data logistics parks, industrial parks.
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from issuing is supposed to be reinvested in the same sector, which means none of the new capital rates can be filled into the traditional market, which is the residential and commercial market. that actually -- if we look at the -- and of the money investments are in property. if you provide a channel for people to invest in asset classes other than property, that actually will cool down the property market then the other side. -- property market rather than the other side. yvonne: thank you very much. the potential of the rate market in china. let's talk about the u.s. protests that have been going on in minneapolis, new york and other cities. sparkedloyd to death
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nationwide protests against police brutality. the galaxy ceo told bloomberg wall street executives, what they can do in the fight against inequality. , thee white businessmen job is to be in support. to listen, to help and to be in support. to bear witness and to love our fellow men. i think more broadly, we cannot just change the black community. we have to change the white community. they need to lead in this. important the business community is right there. i'm part of the reform alliance. i would always tell people, robert kraft is one of our great advocates for criminal justice reform. when he talks, people say, this is a guy that owns the football team. the people that listen to him are already converted.
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he is converting people over that might not see the world the same way as a liberal new yorker sees the world. i think you need an army of criminal justice reformers. you need an army of people that say, wake up. watch the video. i was kidding around with a friend today. i've been arrested twice. i have been drinking and carousing my whole life. not once have i felt threatened by a police officer. >> let's hang onto that for a second because i do want to get back to criminal justice reform. i do want to also talk about systemic racism on wall street and how much wall street can be doing more to create equality in this industry. you built galaxy. it is about 60 some people now. you have told my colleague there are two black people who work for you now. you had the chance to start galaxy from the ground up versus some of these other firms that are very well established, very
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few black people at the top of these firms let alone in the entire workforce. why is that and how did that change -- and how does that change going forward? >> change is tough. we look at ourselves. we are certainly not doing well enough. our committed i told leadership team we have to do better. we will get a black member of our board soon. listen, i made the mistake of thinking bra start up company. -- of thinking we are a start up company. you're going as fast as you can. i am is gave myself these cues, we will get there. that was a mistake. it is hard. there are not a lot of black resumes. we have to look a little harder. you have to look in places you are not used for looking. cheers on you for calling me
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out. we are going to try harder. >> what can you be doing? are there people you are working with within the community who are helping you address the issue? what kind of support are you getting in terms of finding change? >> listen, we have a philanthropy group called galaxy gives, that three years ago committed our resources to criminal justice reform. on the floor right below galaxy digital, we spent all day and lots of money and effort listening to local activists. we have a program called galaxy gives where we have mentorship ngos runs to six small by formerly incarcerated men and women. some black, some white that are working on issues within the criminal justice system. one floor ofe had our company or one floor of my universe that was fully engaged in this. but the company right upstairs,
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we were less integrated. we have plenty of resources. hard.ard is not i know lots of people who would be good board members. the employees is harder. you have to work harder to find them. >> how do you feel so far given your in new york? you are seeing how the city is reacting. how do you feel about the mayor's response and the president's response to the protest we are seeing across america? >> i think the president's response has been despicable. it has been throwing kerosene on a fire. it really angers me. i do not think the mayor has been great either. the governor and the mayor not getting along. it is time to grow up. we need leadership shade -- we need leadership. you should get together. the president has not been able to do that. it is frustrating.
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that was the founder and chairman of galaxy investment partners. coming up, india and australia strengthen their defense partnership as relations with china sour. more on the implications next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: india and australia sign a defense agreement as both nations navigate tense relations with china. indian and chinese troops have be -- have been engaging in weeklong face-off at the himalayan border. joining us is our reporter. tell me about what triggered the standoff. thingse are two or three that seem to have triggered the standoff. immediate reason, that most people believe is india has been building infrastructure on the border. china has been doing this for many years now. india kind of stepped up. they had a new road they built and a new bridge they created. that seems to be the trigger. overall, --ons also he seemed to be changing the status quote -- they seem to be
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changing the status quote in the south china sea. in with those actions of china. we are still waiting to understand why the hostilities have been sharpened. we know that the military commanders are meeting on the sixth of june. there does not seem to be a way out. we saw there was a virtual summit between india and australia just as these tensions on the india-china border continue. what was agreed upon between india and australia and what is the significance of that? have bothnd australia so theygning together
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can form a grouping of countries. australia, there is india. other countries in the last few weeks, few months actually. talking more about how coronavirus should be dealt with. regional issues. havealia and india [indiscernible] australia had faced a huge backlash [indiscernible] we also know india is facing a standoff. it is interesting they chose this time to come together for a virtual summit. this was also in the works for the australian prime minister to come to india. countries officially say the reason they are coming together
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because --mit was [indiscernible] at the same time, the timing is interesting. india andrship allows australia to communicate -- [indiscernible] it is a very interesting time. an important juncture. [indiscernible] tom: thank you. coming up on the show, elon musk says it is time to break up amazon. we will deliver that story. next.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. it is a battle of the billionaires. elon musk versus jeff bezos. the tesla has fired off a tweet saying amazon should be broken up because monopolies are wrong. su keenan joins us with more.
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could this have anything to do with the fact amazon appeared to ban an e-book musk supported? su: absolutely. you have a pre-existing rivalry between the two billionaires. most of these ceos are investors in space clerk -- space exploration companies that technically compete with one another. musk's tweet has clearly escalated the feud. he came in response to a writer who said his self published e-book on the coronavirus was being removed from amazon's kindle publishing division for violating unspecified guidelines. that prompted musk to tweet out and incendiary message, time to break up amazon. monopolies are wrong. with more than 35 million followers, musk is a prolific twitter. he certainly raised the profile of the issue. he has also been criticized in
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the past from posts on subject ranging from the coronavirus outbreak to tesla's stock price. as for bezos, his company, amazon, said the book was removed in error and is being restated. as i mentioned, there is a rivalry on the space companies. musk tweeted about that last year as well. the center of the controversy is this book. tell us more about it. why do you think amazon so quickly reversed the decision? su: it appears musk knew exactly what button to push. the book is called unreported truths about covid-19 anti-lockdown. many people criticized amazon's thinning of the book, which argues the mainstream media is overstating the threat of the virus. alex berenson is the author. he dubs the media team apocalypse. he criticizes decisions of
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politicians to shutdown the country. bezos is also an owner of the washington post. he is also the subject of a lot of scrutiny about running a monopoly with so when musk tweeted out the decision that the decision by amazon was insane and amazon should be shut down, it was bounced around and re-tweeted some 4000 times. certainly raised a lot of attention. hours later, the author received in email amazon will publish the book after all. bezos and amazon continue to be under scrutiny for monopolistic behavior and bezos appeared to know exactly what button to push as this feud goes on. tom: su keenan with the battle of the billionaires. coming up later today, do not miss our interview with hong --g financial expert stay tuned for that.
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plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?
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>> we made it to friday. 11:00 in singapore and hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets: asia. toa-pacific stocks struggled finish the week on a high amid concerns the rally had gone too far. oil heads for a sixth weekly gain on signs of a new output failed. the euro expands its winning streak as the ecb boosts the
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fight against recession. christine lagarde repeats the bank will do whatever is necessary. company is under get -- is under investigation in singapore. we have the latest on the inquiry. a check of theo markets. week, it the trading has been quite a rally we have seen in global equities. we are set for the best week in two months. right now we are taking a bit of a pause. asian stocks mostly lower by a fifth of 1%. some of these are markets like manila. down 2%. we are off some of the lows we sell during the earlier part of the session. hong kong has been flat. we are hovering around the 24,000 mark. the continued story of the bonds selling off. we sell treasury on course for the first week in three months. you are seeing aussie bonds
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following suit. up four basis points. well above the 1% threshold. floundering too much too soon. the dollar index is down. heading for a third consecutive week of losses. the first -- the worst week since early april. the euro in focus, pausing on posting it longest winning streak. it would be the longest stretch in 16 years. almost 4.5%. technical suggesting it may be running pretty much out of stream -- out of steam. the yen regaining some strength. dollar yen volatility has rebounded in june. weakness willen's
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inspire japanese day traders. stronger gains versus the u.s. dollar. the yuan not per dissipating. -- not participating. take a look at where we are in terms of oil. set for a sixth weekly gain. opec-plus inching closer to an extension of deep output cuts. oil has recovered rapidly from its plunge low zero in mid april. that is enough to give set -- to get some american shale back online. gold futures pointing to a drop. gold, this is happening amid signs the market rally is faltering. gold may hit an all-time high in the second half of the year. nifty futures pointing to a high
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open up 4/10 of 1%. taking a breather from the longest winning run since november. futures pointing to a higher open. drop in posted biggest almost two weeks yesterday. investors are awaiting plans. data friday. labor lots to digest. for now, it is a pause. yvonne: let's wrap up this week on the central-bank action. european central bank is top of mind, putting its money where its mouth is. responding to what it cause the unprecedented contraction in the euro area economy. let's get tore global economics and policies editor. what is driving this aggressive move from the ecb? presidentne lagarde, of the european central bank, the economy despite measures to get it going has not responded
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enough. bottom line, christine lagarde is relatively new in the job still. she has said several times, whatever is needed. here is what happened today. the ecb boosted its pandemic emergency purchase program by 600 billion euros. it was expected to do something. 500 billion euros was the forecast. this was on the strong side. getting the potential bond purchase package to 1.3 5 trillion euros. that is a lot of bonds to buy. when she explained the move, she stressed it was an animus. -- it was unanimous. that may be some wanted to wait. it was unanimous. basically it is because the economy has had a tepid response to stimulus so far. let's listen to what she said. >> we judged it was necessary.
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i can assure you there was a unanimous view in the governing council that action had to be taken. in the face of the inflation outlook and given our mandate of price stability, action had to be taken. kathleen: the ecb has been trying to hit it 2% inflation target since the great recession. mario draghi did not succeed. christine lagarde west a do everything she can. she says inflation is going to accelerate slowly. 1.3%oes not see -- only at year-over-year by the year 2020. the ecb cut the gdp forecast. a .7% for 2020. if there is a second wave, could be as weak as 12.6%. it is important for everyone who watches today that this comes
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one day after germany approved a $136 billion stimulus package. now the ecb jumps in. a lot of phrases tossed around bugbear throwing money in -- around like they are throwing money in a joint effort. ing in germany called this economic policy fireworks. she was quoted saying, this is huge. haslinda: whatever it takes they say. now the focus turns to the u.s. jobs report again. what is expected? kathleen: millions of jobs lost again in the month of may. and, not quite as many. the unemployment rate getting to levels we have not seen since the great depression. payrolls were down 20.5 million. may, expected to be down 8 million. not quite as bad. maybe it shows the worst is behind us. unemployment, 14.7 percent in april. one little small bright note.
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average weekly hours, 34.3 in may. average hourly earnings expected to run around 8% year-over-year. usually, they are like 2% or change. lower wage workers have been laid off. there is a lot of speculation around the payroll. jobless claims still high. declinedayroll has much less than expected in may. maybe that means a million means 8 million will not be quite so bad. yvonne: kathleen with the jobs sector still grim, how bench of the -- how much of a push is there for a trump package? kathleen: i think we can expect some serious effort. every day we had closer to the november election, the economy is still looking very bad. death, thed murder,
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u.s. and global reaction are not seeming to play out in trump's favor. with the news is is that the trump team wants a package they can go up to $1 trillion. trump watns in first -- trump wants infrastructure spending. mitch mcconnell has said do not expect any action before the july 3 recess. that will be about two weeks. nothing before july 20 -- before june 20. the house passed a very democrat led stimulus bill because for all kinds of measures to help workers, states and cities. interesting to see when we get back in late july if we see something proposed in the senate pushed by the trump team that gets more support in the house. workers would like to see it, but there still a lot of politics involved. it is anybody's guess what happens. haslinda: kathleen hays.
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that is get the first word headlines. opec-plus is said to expand production costs after a breakthrough in high-stakes negotiations and could sign a deal this weekend. russia and saudi arabia are said to have clinched agreement with iraq. they have accused them of shirking restrictions. seen opec plus expand the curve until the end of july. the bank of china vowing to ensure stability in hong kong. supportssays it firmly hong kong as a global financial center and recognizes the city as a custom territory separate from the mainland. the news comes as the u.s. reviews hong kong's financial status after china imposed sweeping new security laws. the world's biggest lockdown has caused india tens of millions of jobs, resulted in record low
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economic activity. fell about 15% last quarter according to data compiled by bloomberg. around two thirds of members had reported -- [indiscernible] still ahead on this hour of markets asia, dicey dealings. a casinoave a look at and why it is under investigation. haslinda: and we wrap up the --k in markets with [indiscernible] us to discuss india's geopolitical tensions. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: the euro certainly has been the story this week. getting a lift from the ecb, which suspended its bond buying program. also had the fiscal stimulus coming through from germany. the share currency climbing for a ninth straight day. heading for the longest winning streak against the dollar in nine years. let's talk all things fx with the head of market strategy and research ages the -- research asia with australia bank. do you think euro has run its course? this definitely came as a surprise. we do have markets simply happy to shrug off the negative side of things. finland has joint the frugal
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the in going against recovery fund. essentially, markets are looking at this from the angle -- the announcements that the pe pp was more than expected in surpassed expectations. at the same time, the dollar is on a weaker footing. all this compounds today your upside and price actions overnight. whether or not they will be any further gains in the euro, the chance is the euro probably stays within the 110 to wonder 15 range. of course, the upside risk is it may move to a higher trading range. 1.12 to 1.17 in the next few months. to that will actually have depend on whether or not the recovery fund becomes a reality.
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yvonne: do you think the euro strength comes down to the expectation and the impact from the ecb stimulus already thing it comes down to the dollar weakness -- or do you think it comes down to the dollar weakness? >> the dollar weakness is doing its rotation. we have the dollar weakness coming again not just from the ingo but also emerg currency pairs. haveise and risk appetite sustained positive sentiment. shifting to how fall regards to covid and -- [indiscernible] it is more a case of it is the euro turn to benefit from the dollar weakness. we are seeing the dollar and the yuan weaving in
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line with the euro gaining. how much more upside for these currencies? >> slightly more. i think we have to look at it in the tradet of -- tension risk that somehow dissipated overnight. pointing to anti-china sentiment as well as diplomatic tension that has hong kong embroiled within. if you look at it from these two scenes, the latest development in regards to the diplomatic row between u.s. and china is china-centric. does not really affect the likes of the other regions. that is where from their own, the korean yuan and the dollar will play out to the weaker dollar on the cyclical dollar downtrend and recover further from here. i do see that the trade war has
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been positive for southeast asian currency pairs. the containment measures have shown that north asia is likely to outperform the south asian counterparts. it is taking all this into consideration's. we do see the korean yuan and this thing dollar will -- and the sing dollar what upper form. haslinda: on the broad dollar weakness, this is against the backdrop of the dollar being overvalued and some say an overvaluation of 17%. how much downside can we expect over the next few months? >> what has supported the dollar and we play that up with the dollar theory where the dollar tends to perform better in times of risk aversion as well as in times where the u.s. is leading the global economy out of a recession environment, which is
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not the case now. in the relative yield argument that supported the dollar for the most of last year, a looks like it is not going to shift back in the dollar's favor anytime soon and for some years to come. support ine growth terms of balance sheet expansion is a medium turn bearish impact on the dollar. i think this will be adding up for the dollar on the technical downturn over the coming years. to say theit better dollar has an em complex? what about what we are seeing in the aussie and the kiwi? are those the better picks for dealing with the trade we are seeing in markets now? >> absolutely. with supplies as
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well in march where the aussie dollar was the 56 handle. than 10 back by more figures. now it is near the 70 handle. thansuggests to us other the dollar overvaluation play that is benefiting the aussie and the kiwi, the other aspect is the australia and new zealand seems to do better in terms of reopening its economy and the containment measures. i think that plays a part in rendering the outperformance in the australian dollar and the kiwi dollar versus the other em currency pairs. our more bullish outlook to $.72 by the end of this year. haslinda: the national australia bank. have a great weekend.
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up next, thousands gathered across hong kong to commemorate the anniversary of the tiananmen quake done. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: hong kong has passed a controversial bill banning disrespected china's national anthem. let's bring in our greater china editor. the measure was passed on the same day thousands defied a police ban on a visual to commemorate the tiananmen quake down. what does this mean for hong kong and the pro-democracy movement? >> this law and the sweeping national security legislation has been a huge factor in feeling the anger leading these protesters, the surge in recent
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weeks. yesterday, we saw a lot of people come down for the anniversary of the tiananmen massacre. we were not expecting huge crowds because of the social distancing measures relating to the virus. in the end, saw a lot of people come out. some gathered in small groups. protests across the city. we saw people come out. i think they wanted to make a statement especially at the passing of the anthem bill yesterday. they wanted people to know they could upset -- they were upset about it. yvonne: it was interesting to watch because we saw a more people, i think there were about a thousand or so protesters trickle into victoria park. it seemed like police officers were there but were backing down a little bit. why do you think we sell that
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restraint -- we saw that restraint? >> it was unexpected. i think there is a lot of anger in the city. there is a desire not to make it worse. it has been a huge week for hong kong. people are concerned on a number of levels about the future autonomy of the city. potential path to citizenship in the u.k. the protest movement itself with a legal defense that my nappy sustainable in the -- that might not be sustainable in the long run. trying not to make it worse. yvonne: that was our greater china government editor joining us from hong kong. let's do a check of the headlines. select slumped after pulling its annual billing forecast over the uncertainty surrounding business. an indication is not benefiting from the work from home era.
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slack had projected billions -- rejected billings of as much as a billion dollars. --s combination of an asset southeast asia ride-hailing grab is expanding services across 50 cities in the region with consumers largely stuck at home. it is teaming up with 3000 stores to boost its area of operation from two countries to eight. ride-hailing has been hammered by the pandemic but demand for deliveries has soared. take a look at markets right now. we are seeing a whole lot of conviction out there today when it comes to stocks. there is some consolidation. take a look at the airline sector when it comes to chinese airlines. you are seeing here more recovery or it is more visible. we are seeing recovery in the air travel business despite the
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fight that we are seeing ongoing tensions between the u.s. and china on what flights it online. we are seeing the legs of china southern and air china up 8%. you are seeing stock in companies for hubei province are going nuts after china said it would speed up development of the free-trade zone. anything that has hubei or wuhan as a keyword is gaining. we see the likes of hubei mill yard up some 10% today. haslinda: anything with air in it. china markets heading to lunch time. stocks down for a second day. pretty much in line with the rest of the day. csi 300 down to tenths of 1%. -- down 2/10 of 1%. the ubs cited high valuations, trade tensions. csx 300 trading 13 times
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estimated earnings. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: almost 11:30 m in singapore. the sbi in positive territory. percent.ut have a edging into bowl territory this week -- into bull territory this week. we heard from the prime minister's saying it is a priority for singapore to build an offerpacity to fill manufacturing service to developers. the lion city trying to emerge from the lockdown.
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the ms ci up six tents of 1%. among the few gainers among asian investors today. yvonne: let's get a check of the first word headlines. the european central stepping up its response to the contraction in the euro zone with a bigger than expected increase in its bond buying program. the ecb will expand purchases by an extra 600 billion euros by a total of 1.3 trillion. italian bonds rallied on the news. christine lagarde says action has to be taken. applications for u.s. unemployment aid rose again last week. a slight slowdown in numbers but showing the economy is still being hammered by the virus shutdown. initial jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since mid-march with the data suggesting claims peaked early last month. separate readings show u.s.
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goods and services plunged in april. will are growing the u.k. crash out of the u.k. -- out of the european union with no trade deal. agreement looming at the end of the month. final negotiations on current talks are set for friday trade u.k. prime minister boris johnson and e.u. commission head are said to hold talks later this month. myanmar says it will hold general elections later this year confirming expectations for a vote before the end of 2020. the national league for democracy scored a landslide victory in 2015 as myanmar emerged from five decades of military rule. however, allegations of genocide over treatment of minorities have overshadowed her administration. tokyo reports 28 new coronavirus cases. . the fourth day in a row of new double-digit infections. that is 128 new cases in the
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past week, the biggest 7-day rise since mid-may. singapore is warning of an argent challenge from covid-19 with sweeping job losses on the horizon. malaysia has recorded its biggest daily rise in new virus cases since the pandemic first erected. -- first erupted. yvonne: india -- haslinda: india and china are no strangers toward animosity. both countries are facing off again in the himalayas. the build is set against the backdrop of beijing deteriorated international relations. several nations are moving to cut the dependence on china while india spies on opening it is key to exports but -- spies and opening it is key to exploit. professor, good to have you with us. is it realistic to think india can redefine the region from
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china's economic and strategic dominance? >> i think there are certain advantages india brings to the table. happeninghink this is in the near term. there are many issues in the indian economy that remain to be fixed. one of the things -- the problems india faces is there are many companies that are doubling down on their presence in china. there are advantages china offeres that are not replicated in india in terms of both labor and landlords. skilled labor. that is another problem india has. india will have another work at a bit to achieve this. it is not happening -- work ahead of it to achieve this. it is not happening anytime soon. haslinda: we are seeing better relations between india and australia. both prime ministers have signed
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an agreement to work together closer. eyeing india been for a long time. has it made a breakthrough and what is different this time around? >> the india and australia relationship has been something of an undercooked relationship. it has performed below its potential for many years. we are at something of a turning ofnt both because international circumstances as well as general interest in both thetical leadership to take relationship forward. there is an intrinsic merit to the relationship. both countries are powerful actors in the indian ocean, which is a good enough reason for them to act together in concert.
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the additional security problems china has created as well as a feeling in india the united states is not dependable or --onsistent as a partner has and this is a reality australia is facing. these are circumstances that have brought india and australia together. the agreement yesterday is a wide-ranging one in terms of maritime exchanges. promising right now. jacob, as wessor watch the ongoing tension between the u.s. and china, to what extent do you think india can benefit from the relationship between beijing and d.c.? ofwell, in terms opportunities, the india and
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u.s. relationship, these have always been on the upward curve for some years. like i mentioned, there are many areas where the united states has been less than fully committed. the relationship has been affected with india. the relationship has been affected by inconsistencies of the u.s. policy. as well as some expectations the u.s. had that india would commit to being a full partner and i like to the i'd states. -- full partner and ally to the i'd states. we have an active boundary dispute. we have other interests with china. china is a major trading partner for india. we have our own set of interests with china that also need to be respected in washington, d.c. tohink there is a limit
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--ch americans can expect [indiscernible] this is not possible. this is not something we are interested in. we think china has its place in the world, but we also need to react to any sort of posturing and assertiveness that china engages in. i think there are opportunities especially the more china takes an aggressive path. the more opportunities there are for the relationship. we also need political leadership on both sides in india and the u.s. to be aligned on certain fundamental interest. s. it is not a fully formed relationship yet. seen india you have has led a backlash against china. google was forced to remove one
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of their ads. there is on the ground some type of nationalistic pride and this anti-china sentiment. you mentioned how it is a tough balancing act for how india can push china. does that mean china has more leverage here than what india has and this can backfire for modi? >> i do not think that is the case. these calls for chinese goods to be boycotted keeps coming up. india amended its fdi regulations to ensure -- [indiscernible] not -- these things are they have lost these ideas. the economic relationship is one part of it. there is indeed a greater awareness of china. one of the advantages to this sentiment, these issues coming indiary now and then is
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has been focused on pakistan and has started to pay more attention to china. in the beginning, there will be these calls of boycotts. aggressive nationalism. over time, both sides -- people on both sides will begin to consider the relationship more carefully. advantage to a balanced relationship with china with on the trade front and the political front -- both on the trade front and the political front. because these relationships are largely run out of the capitals with little input from ordinary people, sometimes even the academic community, the intellectual community on both sides, there are bound to be problems of underperformance in their relationship. that does not mean the
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relationship is about to go off the rails. professor, the prime minister said in an article the u.s. security presence remains vital to the asia region and china cannot play that role. what is your take on that and how do you see china positioning itself in this part of the world? think the article is a significant milestone. it puts together the views pretty well. problemclassifies the very differently in a sense that it shows the limitations of the nations in dealing with china. these problemst are likely to continue. china is paying close attention to what prime minister lee is
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saying. and that china will continue its policy. decoupling is easier said than done. none of the economies are in a position yet to decouple from china. that is where the chinese advantage lies. -- butted states might it is also about voting capacity -- about building capacity. even if they might have capacity, it is still not certain countries will react strongly to china. there's a difference between words and actions. yvonne: we are going to leave it there, but thank you so much. before i mark some lines crossing terminal, stephen engle is speaking to hong kong's financial secretary paul chan.
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what has come out of it so far, a big topic is the national security law. paul chan saying this is a good thing for hong kong. they have mentioned what the response has been so far. he mentioned other financial centers have national security laws and it will not affect ordinary business for people as well. he says overall, the reaction to the security law has been positive and banks in the city see the merit of the national security law. defiedter we heard hsbc the u.k. in their support of the legislation. there is an adjustment in relations between hong kong and the u.s. right now. when it comes to the dollar peg, he says he is sure the dollar peg will thin. stay tuned for our interview with the financial secretary of hong kong, paul chan. nigeria: coming up,
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says it is fully complying with opec's output production. even over compliance. with the petroleum corp. is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: as we count down to the opening session. nifty futures pointing to a lower open, up by 5/10 of 1%. indian stocks were down yesterday, the longest. taking a breather from the longest winning streak since november. there is concern india has rallied too much, too soon. send text down 18% for the year. within double the drop of the msci index. nifty up by 7/10 of 1%. centex up by as much. keeping track of some shares. yvonne: we are taking a look at some of the stocks in particular when it comes to reliance. the sovereignt wealth fund in the middle east billion. a stake, 1.2
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we are watching the lion stock. considering a proposal to sell its stake to amazon. shares up 1.3%. we are watching the bank of india and larson today. all seeing gains. we are watching the likes of oil, which has begun another story. we continue to watch the price of this rally. it seems like right now in the last two days, we have hovered around 37 for nymex crude. newsor brent as well on opec-plus may be set to extend output curves after a breakthrough with iraq. our energyo reporter. tell us why. why has it taken opec so long to agree to these curves? >> this is been the classic opec problem. it has been going on for
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decades. this issue where there is a big group of people. they agree to cut the oil price. prices rise. one or two of them say prices are rising, maybe i can make some more money. this time around, it has been iraq that is the main offender. it has not lived up to its promises. saudi arabia and russia who have got fed up with it this week. they drew a line in the sand and said iraq needs to start complying or we cannot move forward. it has been tense all week. as of right now, it looks like iraq is going to agree to comply. we do not know exactly how. russian news agencies just said there is a meeting scheduled tomorrow. things are looking good, but with these guys, you never know to the teaser crossed and the eyes are dotted -- and the i's
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are dot. ted -- haslinda: will it be enough to extend the rally? >> it will be enough for right now to sustain the rally. believes itmarket is going to happen. it was already priced in. it would be catastrophic if it would fell apart at this point. whether the market will be enough to keep the oil market in balance is a good question. a lot of it will depend on how quickly demand rises in june. we are still in and oversupplied market. it is that the oversupply is less because of these cuts. of hope is that by the end july, the economies will be back. the asia energy reporter. nigerian national petroleum
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corp. group managing director spoke exclusively to us. compliance during june. we are aware -- [indiscernible] number -- [indiscernible] completely in compliance. the challenge in june. we are complying. >> many would say that may not be true. better, butnce is nigeria has a long history of not complying. back in 1986 for example. have you -- how do you convince the saudi's and russians you are meeting at this time? >> it is a different situation.
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we distinguish. [indiscernible] today, we are in full compliance. it is a different story. >> if there is compliance, what kind of a deal do you think in terms of opec-plus we are going to see? what kind of effect will that have on the market at what kind of pricing do you need to see in the current market on brent? >> [indiscernible] close to 42 at the end of the year. the full compliance and in level beyonda code the $42 mark. it could be anywhere -- [indiscernible] of -- june, compliance
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will be at the expected level. [indiscernible] probably come back to a pre-covid-19 situation at the early half of 2021. down. are going consumption is up. [indiscernible] that was the nigerian national petroleum corp. group managing director. coming up, singapore's casino is under investigation at home and in the u.s. we will have the details coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. bloomberg has learned the singapore casino is being probed by the u.s. department of justice for a potential breach of laundering operations. and have theyw responded? >> bloomberg has seen a copy of the grand jury that was issued from the u.s. department of justice.
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it seeks documents on money laundering facilitation and other documents relating to abusive internal financial control. prosecutors are said to have asked the former compliance head who is a person with deep knowledge of how the casino is run to produce any records related to these violations. the subpoena has also requested information from another former employee who is said to have carried out fund transfers to highrollers. the inquiry is said to be in its early stages. according to our sources, the inquiry is seeking to establish if there is been any retaliation against whistleblowers. responseo did issue a to bloomberg saying any suggestion of inappropriate activity is being taken seriously and they are investigating any assertion of wrongdoing. vegassino is owned by las
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sands. shares fell by 5%. this report coming on the same day the las vegas strip saw casinos reopen for the first time since march. bayne: meanwhile, marina sands facing a probe in singapore. how damaging are these allegations? >> all of this coming at the same time while marina bay sands remains closed due to the phase reopening of singapore's economy. it is facing a probe by the casino regulatory authority into its money transit policies. this is related to a lawsuit filed by a high roller in china. he is seeking to recover $6.5 million. sands has not commented on the complaint in particular but it is being reviewed by the singapore police. these allegations coming at a
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high time when we are seeing casinos heart by the pandemic as a whole. 93% yearacau was down on year in may. this is an iconic building. a casino that has been seen in the likes of crazy rich agents. kim jong-un visited the club in 2018 should damaging allegations coming to light. say they arends do looking into any inappropriate activity and taking it very seriously. haslinda: looking at the markets, a pause in the markets. equities have gone too fast. it for this friday. that is it for this edition of bloomberg markets: asia.
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best of bloomberg markets: middle east is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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