Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 2, 2020 7:00am-8:01am EDT

7:00 am
point, analysts, companies, strategists , portfolio managers, has a great sense of what earnings will be in 2020 or 2021. >> you have a fed that has looked into eight television camera and said we are just printing the money. >> it is not a discussion of whether there will be a recovery or not. let us not confuse a bounce with a recovery. >> this is "bloomberg keene,lance" with tom and lisa abramowicz -- with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. live from new york, good morning. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. already the buzz word, misclassification. tom: put it in the 6:00 script. it is so important. oddest unemployment report we will ever see.
7:01 am
it is a complete and total me, you andonly to lisa. it is a mystery to lawrence kudlow. jonathan: catching up with larry kudlow at 10:00 a.m. eastern from the white house. the median is a little north of 3 million. the range is absolutely rock will. be high -- absolutely remarkable. the high is 9 million, the low is 500,000. lisa: then there is a question of what it means with respect to the weeks after the data comes in, in which case we saw these close downs continue throughout the nation in the face of an escalating pandemic. 8:30, we get the initial jobless claims, as well as the jobs report. very interested in what larry kudlow has to say with you at 10:00 a.m. do not miss it on bloomberg television.
7:02 am
he will give the party line from the white house and how to deal with the pandemic and the economic crisis, not different things. first30, we get the public comments from president this week. he will give a discussion at the white house at the spirit of america showcase. very interesting to hear his new approach to the pandemic as a mounting chorus of republicans say you need to deal with this differently, maybe even wear a mask. jonathan: i think the president now all in on wearing masks, speaking to foxbusiness in the last 24 hours. the number one question for me after this payrolls report, what does it mean for the fiscal effort over the next 30 days in the united states? that is going to be the question a lot of people ask themselves when that data drops. tom: when all of the crosscurrents are done, i think that is really what we are going theoalesce around, political urgency within the election. with a july 4 kick off the election changes into the
7:03 am
weekend. it used to be you would go to the convention. i agree, the coalescence will be around the fiscal debate. there's a lot of things going on , to our conversation with john bolton. that gang of eight meeting on the hill that was yesterday is now today. that will be a most interesting meeting to set the tone into the sunday talk shows. jonathan: we will touch base with kevin cirilli here on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. in your equity market, positive 22 points on the s&p. we add some weight to it, up 0.7%. we have a wonderful lineup of guests on "bloomberg surveillance," and we begin with the brilliant priya misra of td securities. for many people, we've got one question on our mind, just how useful this data will be at 8:30. how useful will it be for you? strategist,rates
7:04 am
data is always important, but from this we will extrapolate. i think this one is less useful. you have talked about misclassification. we are looking for 4 million because of the reopening, plus the ppp impact. but what does the other side look like? can you extrapolate from these gains? i would say no. the fed is telling us they want good numbers. they are not extrapolating from any of this data. so i would say it is less important. i am really watching the rise in covid cases. i think that is probably more important than the number today at 8:30. tom: i think you are dead on on this, but i take issue with that it is just about the jobs report. to me come the high-frequency get,on thursday we always
7:05 am
is that just as important as the jobs report? priya: exactly. we are having super payroll thursday with everything out at the same time. that has also got some issues because ppp had impacted that data, but at least it is higher frequency. some of the other numbers we look at, small business employment, it is actually leveling off. even if we get a blockbuster payroll report, but you get we getting in initial claims, i think we will get more nervous. lisa: does any of this really matter? not to get philosophical on this thursday -- i usually save that for friday, but we are not going to have a friday -- markets are trading good news is very good news, and bad news is also not so bad, which means more fiscal and punted terry support -- and monetary support. is this the right way to look at
7:06 am
it? iiya: given the uncertainty, am a little surprised at some of the complacency. that whether fiscal or monetary, the talk is of building a bridge to the other side. clearly there is need for another fiscal package. our view is that we will get something by the end of july. and then what does the other side look like? i think the fed has been saying there could be structural damage happening right now. some risk markets are assuming that we go back to the world that existed in jan or feb. i think the fact that these cases are growing is actually affecting business competent -- business confidence, consumer confidence, so there may be a moment of reckoning for at least meme asset classes in so sectors. jonathan: what i worry about is that the bounce shapes the
7:07 am
composition, the effort in washington. think undoubtedly what we get in july from washington is some kind of package on the fiscal side. but if you take today's payrolls report to shape that package, you making a big mistake, given what we are seeing in states across the country, either pausing or birthing -- or reversing reopening plants. i wonder how dated the data that comes out today is. priya: it is dated because it is in the context of reopening. as businesses reopened, they had to hire. plus, the ppp program was incentivizing companies to hire. it is still a temporary measure. that if theerned number is good, some pressure on washington will decline. but i think there is pressure from the rise in cases. there is clearly a health-care response, but also a fiscal response. perhaps stimulus checks will be given out.
7:08 am
we are talking $1 trillion, which is a big number, but not as large as what could have been if we were not reopening. but i think we are probably going to get something for the state relief. it is not just about a few states now that are going to need help. so i think any fiscal package will have something for the states. tom:tom: i think this is so important in the changed landscape we have seen in the last 24 hours. priya has mentioned it twice, the idea that they debate has changed because the virus news has changed. restaurants were going to open. no, in new york we are going to stay closed. i think that has a direct impact on labor confidence. jonathan: there are businesses that will need support, and it will be lots of incomes that need to be offset by the government. we still need that countercyclical fiscal approach
7:09 am
from washington, d.c. you talked about the bridge to the other side, and i share that view with you. it needs an extension. i just wonder how persistent the effort is going to need to be through 2020, and whether we will have enough support from that effort bumping up against an election. can we keep washington unified to offset the loss of income? priya: yes, everyone wants to support. the moment you get into the details of what exactly will go in this package, are you going to provide that liability where a lot of people are not going to want that come are you going to provide a ton of money to states to use wherever money is fungible, the more you get into what exactly goes into this package, that is where the partisan divide shows up. and we have an election coming up, so everything now has to be seen in the lens of the political, unfortunately, with which side you are on.
7:10 am
that is going to complicated this plan. they will find some middle ground. i just think normally, whenever you are trying to get a bipartisan bill, it is going to grow to get both sides happy. but in a negative campaign season, i don't think you can assume it will be a very large package. jonathan: appreciate your time this morning. have a good morning and a good long weekend, priya misra of td securities. this has got to be the number one issue of this month, what the fiscal package looks like. we really need to understand what the strategy is. the president in the last 24 hours said he would support more direct payments to individuals. that's the first time i've really heard him say that with some conviction. i wonder what the follow-up is. whether we have consensus on the administration side is they worry that the enhanced unemployment benefits that expired at the end of this month disincentivizes going back to work. i don't think you can say that
7:11 am
the payrolls report we got last month is an accurate indication of this economy, and at the same time say that somehow, and hence tenant women benefits have stopped people returning to work that somehow, enhanced unemployment benefits have stopped people returning to work. lisa: if there is not a re-upping of them, that could perhaps be the trigger for that reckoning that priya misra and others have talked about, where you start to see some of the fundamentals catch up with market pricing, or perhaps the other way around. jonathan: questions for the white house a little bit later this morning. 10:00 a.m. eastern, we will be catching up with national economic council director larry kudlow here on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. in your equity market, after a really nice week of gains, we add some weight to it. on the s&p, 0.8%.
7:12 am
alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. today's monthly u.s. jobs report is likely to be a mess. the june data and weekly employment claims are expected to show further improvement in the labor market, but the actual trend may not be immediately clear because of problems dealing with the misclassification of out of work americans as employed. the numbers are out at 8:30 new york time. for the first time, u.s. daily coronavirus cases rose above 50,000. there were increases in states including texas, florida, and california. health experts say the virus is increasingly becoming a disease of the young. in florida, the median age of those infected is 37, down from 65 in march. the british economy is gearing
7:13 am
up for what is being called a super saturday, the day the u.k. will reopen clubs, restaurants and hotels. both the government and businesses are counting on a big on the path to recovery. some bank of england policy have sounded optimistic. they say economic activity is returning faster than they had expected. done demand is off the charts in demand is off the charts in the u.s. makers predict sales will recente to be strong if protests continue and biden maintains his lead in the polls. fortune has smashed through its previous peak. shares of amazon rose more than
7:14 am
4% yesterday. that boosted his world leading fortune to more than $171 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
7:15 am
7:16 am
7:17 am
>> in terms of the trump presidency, it is just another day at the office. every day is a new day. what you said yesterday is
7:18 am
interesting, but doesn't necessarily dictate what you say today. what it tells the russians is we are in disarray, and ripe for this kind of provocation, not just in afghanistan, but in many other places around the world. jonathan: ambassador bolton joining "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. payrolls thursday, and your equity market we rally into the job sprint, up 0.8 per -- the jobs print, up on the s&p 0.8%. elsewhere in the bond market, last week, treasury yields lower on the 10 year by around five points. we push higher on the week so far and add another basis point to your 10 year yield. your yield is 0.687%. the dollar just a little bit softer, a little bit weaker in the fx market. the euro advances.
7:19 am
that is a weaker dollar against g10, one hour and 12 minutes away from the payrolls report. tom: as priya misra said, i am watching the continuing claims just as much on this odd thursday. kevin cirilli will be watching in washington, to follow on from our interview with ambassador bolton, what the gang of eight does. he is here now to explain to us who the gang of eight is, and why president trump will focus on then today. who are those eight figures on capitol hill? kevin: this is a bipartisan group of lawmakers, and what they are going to be figuring out precisely is what happened with the russian bounties, and what the u.s. foreign-policy out to be moving forward. in washington, d.c., on issues pertaining to national security, whether it relates to russia, china, there often is a consensus behind the scenes that builds. it doesn't get play publicly,
7:20 am
especially in these polarized times. i think that in terms of what is going on as russian president vladimir putin continues to firm up our for nearly another decade -- firm up power for nearly another decade plus, the bipartisan lawmakers in congress are also trying to figure out some type of strategy as well. tom: i believe putin, on an age basis, is out to 83 years old he will be in power within russia. yesterday, ambassador bolton i thought was really something in agreeing with susan rice that he would burst into the oval office to brief the president on these russian matters. is the staff of the president going to burst into the oval office today? what was, but i think so fascinating about that interview was it really did offer a firsthand look inside the former nsa director's
7:21 am
perception of what it was like to work inside that white house as it relates to foreign policy. beyond that, it was absolutely fascinating to hear from john bolton, in agreement with susan rice. something, we always keep up with the dizzying pace of news out of washington, but that was something that folks should take a minute to let that sink in. up until yesterday, that is something we never thought we would have heard. lisa: we are hearing more about some bipartisan efforts when it comes to, as you were talking about, news and reports of the russian bounties on the heads of american soldiers. how much of a bipartisan effort is there in terms of re-upping the enhanced unemployment benefits. the market is certainly counting on this, and domestically, even if we get a big jobs beat in about an hour, we are still looking at a hugely damaged labor market.
7:22 am
kevin: you know this better than anybody, in terms of crunching the numbers on economic indicators, because when you look at how these states are having to issue more closures, whether it is in california, arizona, there are parts of the country where many republicans are saying reopen the economy and put people back to work, and that will take care of the recession we are in. however, with all of these closures, it is only adding the impetus for there to be another round of economic stimulus. million've got $130 left over any bank account for some of these loans for small businesses, and now joint democrats and republicans say they want to be able to put that into main street, i do think there is some bipartisanship. a final note on that point, look no further than across the pond. you've got boris johnson passing a major infrastructure package,
7:23 am
a pretty conservative global world leader, that could be a roadmap for president to follow in the fall if he wants to get infrastructure on board. hawksan: i think fiscal on both side of the atlantic are well and truly gone for now. the president was asked by fox in the last 24 hours, do you support another direct round of payments to americans? he said, "i do, but it has to be done properly, and i support larger numbers than the democrats, but it's got to be done properly." what does doing it properly actually mean? kevin: first and foremost, it means making sure that the states that are heavily impacted by this are paying to individuals who truthfully cannot get back to work, not because they don't have a choice. the second point here is what the presidencies is that the sees is- the president
7:24 am
that the states hardest hit by not being able to reopen are actually republican states. that has really thrown a wrench into the political calculations here because the president knows that many of the states the cannot reopen or states that he also needs to win back in order to get reelected. finally, i would just note, when you talk to folks at the labor , it is quite remarkable how much that concern of issuing some helicopter cash to people at a time when they really need it, coupled with this debate whether or not people want to go back to work. jonathan: kevin cirilli in washington, always appreciate it. have a good come along weekend, won't you? states don't have the same capability when it comes to borrowing as the federal government. the big worry for many people is that as these states suffer, they start to introduce
7:25 am
state-level austerity, and that is not what you want in an economic downturn, and certainly not what you want in an economy struggling to reopen. you got to believe we will see that in the next 10 days. joachim fels of pimco yesterday put a $1 trillion all in ticket on a new set of aid that will be needed. jonathan: one hour and five minutes away, the payroll report coming up here on "bloomberg surveillance." the wide range of estimates is absolutely phenomenal. the median estimate just a little north of 3 million. the low is 500,000, the high is 9 million. is a lotusion is there of confusion, a lack of visibility over just how quickly we are bouncing back and how well we are snapping back. in your equity market, up 25 on the s&p 500, 0.8%. from new york, alongside tom
7:26 am
keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on bloomberg tv, on bloomberg radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
7:27 am
7:28 am
7:29 am
7:30 am
jonathan: on this payrolls thursday, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on bloomberg radio and tv, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour away from the jobs report in america, with equity futures up 23 on the s&p 500. add aanced 0.75% and little more weight to the weekly rally ahead of the long weekend stateside. in the bond market, yields bleeding a little bit higher, up by not even a basis point on 30 year. -- higher toer by 0.68%. how do you prepare for this payrolls report when the range is so wide on this one? tom: nothing, nothing.
7:31 am
we will give you full coverage at 8:30. claims data coming out as well. what we will do right now is not go big picture. we will do that with ellen zentner of morgan stanley. far more important, we are going to go nerd and really talk about minutia of this historic report. your team has been great about slicing and dicing misclassification, this, that in the other thing. what does the new bout of virus delay mean to any of your forecasting? how have you had to amend in the last 10 days? we are really having to go back again, as we did through the shutdowns, we will have to go back and do this on a state-by-state basis, simply because you've got activity slowing and falling off in the states that have had to
7:32 am
now roll back some of their opening. you've got states in the northeast mainly that are still holding up the national numbers because we are still opening. but even there we have seen the reaction from the new jersey governor. they rolled back the reopening of restaurants. that might see delays in places like new york because we are seeing other states as a shining example of what happens when you open to early. so all of this data, including the june payroll report we are going to be getting later this morning, all of this data is backwards looking. what we have to understand is that we have already gone through the sharpest part of this rebound because of pent-up demand coming through. but that is not going to be sustained. so this is great news. we think we have brought back more than 12 million workers in june, offset by 7 million job
7:33 am
losses, but another 12 million workers came back. at ahat is going too low time when initial jobless claims have been stuck at 1.5 million per week. at some point, that starts to overwhelm the amount of people coming back to the labor force. tom: that is the juxtaposition of planes and unemployment he will see added: 30. 8:30.l -- you will see at we will do all the analysis we can. i look at my incoming mail box, and it is thunderous, the emails i have gotten from people saying that the guys on tv have it wrong. it is a lot worse than what you people are talking about. we don't even survey it at bloomberg, at 21%, 22%. sixyou looking at a 25% you -- 25% u6? u6 is going to remain
7:34 am
extraordinarily high. it is moving in the right direction come about that tells us a more clear underlying picture of the pain in the economy from covid moving through. we heard these similar concerns after 2008, after the financial crisis. what are the economists talking recovery?t we are in this does not feel like a recovery. i heard that all the way through 2014 after the financial crisis. that is the time that consumer confidence finally got back to precrisis levels. i am hearing something similar. it is very difficult because we sit on the tiny island of manhattan -- well, right now i've escaped to the countryside in upstate new york -- but it is a bubble, and it doesn't represent what is going on in the broader economy. i can't tell you the number of about i, too, have gotten
7:35 am
the weekly supplemental unemployment insurance benefit that are due to expire at the end of this month. it is nailbiting for those folks who are seeing if they can budget around if that expires and what happens to that. tom: there is a worry -- jonathan: there is a worry that if we get a decent bounce today, it shapes the fiscal effort in washington and we don't get the composition right. there is going to be a ton of quirks in this report. we would love your help to work through some of them. help us understand the misclassifications in the last month or so, how that could impact the and implement rate. help us with the wage numbers as well. ellen: you've got some crosscurrents. the misclassification, when people go out into the field with a survey for households, which is where the end of limit rate -- the unemployment rate is , were you, they say
7:36 am
unemployed, and if so why? then they classify them into different buckets. they have been told they classify if they are out of a job because of covid, to classify them differently so that they are stripped out of that unemployment rate. they are stripped out of that copulation. if you were to count them properly as unemployed, than the unemployment rate as reported would be much higher. ofhink that regardless whether policymakers specifically understand that nuance are not, they are going to be going home over the july 4 holiday. they are going to be going out across the country into normal land and sea that normal isn't good. i think that the media, which is doing a great job of covering the problems in the states that
7:37 am
have opened up to early with accelerating cases, that is what they are going to be hearing from the most, not this data. on the flipside of the and employment rate being higher than what is being reported, average hourly earnings we think are going to decline 1.25% month over month. on the flipside, that doesn't look great at all. but it is all compositional. it is simply because we have gone through the bulk of the layoffs at the service sector, lower wage paid employees, and the bizarre thing is as those come out of being counted, their low wages are no longer dragging down the overall. so that distortion means that hourly earnings are now falling. you've got to throw all of this data out the window because it is so distorted. what we know from the labor market report is that the labor market isn't rushing. that is what we know. more help is needed.
7:38 am
where atomposition is -- the composition is where i want to do go. so many people are looking for a rethink of the labor market. i was struck by a "bloomberg thatessweek" story saying the wage increase is at 7% of was it was in 1940. what are you hoping to see, and why is it important from an economics perspective for policymakers to come up with an infrastructure spending plan or something to rejigger decomposition of the workforce, and inject something on main street that feels perhaps a bit better than what congress members are going to be hearing when they go back home this weekend? ellen: you bring up infrastructure. it feels like a career long during of mine -- career long dream of mine to get massive infrastructure spending from congress.
7:39 am
i don't think we get it this year. i think it is something used on the campaign trail. it is a hot topic of what can be -- voted, depending on for me, i will deliver big infrastructure. you will hear that from both candidates. it is a story for once we pass the emergency funding support packages, let's talk about how we can support the economy going forward in a way that puts us on track for higher potential gdp, higher productivity, which means higher nominal wages, and lower in employment. those are -- lower unemployment. those come with large multipliers, which means they have a very large impact on the economy with long tails. but that is next year's story. i think chair powell said it best after the most recent fomc meeting, saying that our goal is to get back to that 3.5% unemployment rate before covid-19 hit as fast as humanly
7:40 am
possible, which means there's not just more for fiscal policy to do. we have to lean more heavily on that, but there is more for monetary policy to do as well. getting that unemployment rate as low as possible is the way you get into the cracks of the economy, the liver market, households -- the labor market, households, in order to lift all boats, and that is the end goal. jonathan: absolutely fantastic to catch up with you ahead of the payrolls report. brilliant work at morgan stanley with the whole of the research team. ellen's and their of morgan ofnley -- ellen zentner morgan stanley on the payrolls report out at 8:30 eastern. in the composition of the workers coming back, the low-wage sector of the jobs market came off in that ugly jobs report a couple of months ago, which put upward pressure on the wages. you've got to reverse engineer that. that is what is expected at
7:41 am
8:30. lisa: a lot of the data is increasingly being dismissed as messy. one thing i saw overnight was bloomberg economics looking at the inflation data coming out, saying the cpi data are way too low because when you rejigger decomposition of what we are actually buying in the pandemic, it is groceries. it is the basic necessities. inflation there has been so much greater, and this has disproportionately hit the lowest income workers because their expenses take on a greater proportion of their monthly bills. to me, these types of rejigger ,n of the data are so important the less concrete data points that really color the entire labor and economic picture of the united states. jonathan: there's a ton of pain out there. we will get a sense of that at around 50 minutes time. we also have to reflect on the massive surprise we had last month, and whether there is scope for another big surprise one way or another in 50 minutes. tom: you're right.
7:42 am
i'm humbled by it, and a lot of the grizzled crohn's i know -- know wererows i humbled by that. i am looking at the high-frequency data. jonathan: a lot of data to pour over here on bloomberg. equity futures up 25 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. china is warning that the u.s. u.s.ina is warning the and others to stop criticizing its new hong kong security law. sanctionsould impose on officials involved with the crackdown on hong kong. president trump says masks are
7:43 am
good, but questions whether americans should b made to wear them. the president told foxbusiness he would wear a mask if he were "in a tight situation with people." president trump has mocked democratic challenge joe biden for wearing a mask. iden outraised president last month with $141 million in june. that tops the hall from the president and the republicans, the second straight month that biden's fundraisers came out on top. big in aputin has won vote that would allow him to stay in office until 2036. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. gupta.ika
7:44 am
this is bloomberg. ♪
7:45 am
7:46 am
7:47 am
pres. trump: i'm all for masks. if i was in a group of people and i was close -- >> you would wear one? pres. trump: i have.
7:48 am
people have seen me wearing one. if people feel good about it, they should do it. jonathan: the president of the united states with fox news in the last one he four hours. the reopening process has stalled in many states across america. the rhetoric has shifted. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on bloomberg tv and on bloomberg radio, counting you down to a pay wa -- to a payrolls report. we advanced 0.8%. tom: a nice lift to the market. right now, this is when we invented "bloomberg surveillance ," what we wanted to do more than anything. you just got a classroom ellen's and mayor of morgan stanley -- zentner of morgan stanley. now we can do that with betsy stephenson -- with betsey s
7:49 am
tevenson. we welcome her this morning. needis the most urgent right now, the first wednesday after november? we get through an election, and i don't care who wins, what is the most urgent policy prescription? betsey: the most urgent policy prescription is making sure states survive their massive revenue shortfall. in the lastpened recession in 2008 was state revenue shortfalls led to a massive wave of layoffs at the state and local government level , and that helped prolong the recession. we are on track for that to happen in the united states. we are going to say layoffs at the state and local level dragging things down. tom: when people heard you were going to be on, i got a whole bunch of emails.
7:50 am
i know jon wants to talk about the fiscal package, and lease as well. i want to talk to you about the number one conversation i here right now about america's parents. whenever going to get an economic policy prescription for child care? we seem to be the only nation in the developed world that can't do this right. can you explain why that is? betsey: i can't explain why it is, but i can say that there is a silver lining that comes out of all of this. it is realizing that childcare is a national issue, not a private, personal family issue. making sure that we are investing in children and that parents can safely do their jobs knowing that their kids are being well cared for, well educated is a crucial part of the economy functioning. if we can come out of this and develop a policy that puts us on car with -- that puts us on par
7:51 am
with other countries in the world, we will be better for it. lisa: as a mom, i can personally say it is very important to get children back to school. i do want to get a sense from you, given the fact that we are facing a very messy slew of data --t should show a great deal the structural changes in the labor market that you don't want to see lost in some of the improvements that we are seeing and going to continue to see as people adapt a little more to the virus? betsey: i think people have to be really careful when they look at these reports. we have never seen tens of millions of people laid off before.ily en masse what we are going to see today is a bunch of people being called back to their jobs. that is great, but what we need to worry about are people permanently losing jobs.
7:52 am
was so excited that we but we job gains, actually saw an increase in permanent jobs lost. people are going to celebrate those gains. those are all going to come from a reduction in people who are temporarily laid off. why is that difference matter? it is a really big deal between you are still talking to your , you've got income struggles, versus you've got a job to go back to. if you don't know how you are going to get back to work, i don't know how i am going to get back to work, it takes years to come back from, and we are just now getting a sense of how much
7:53 am
permanent damage has been done to the economy. my guess is that we will learn there's more permanent damage than last time. can you quantify that image in terms of where the year will end with the unemployment rate, as well as the percentage of americans permanently out of the workforce? are looking towards the end of the year, towards december. you can't really say anything .ight now we are seeing surges right now that is likely to lead to more layoffs. it is hard to predict both the virus and the labor market. i would be surprised if we had an employment below 9% by the end of the year, and i think that getting those 9% of people back to work is going to be a and a best case
7:54 am
scenario is to get everybody back to work by early 2023. that is my best case scenario. so we really do have a long way to go here, and we shouldn't get overly excited by the news we see in the report today. jonathan: appreciate your time this morning. it is valuable, so thank you for giving it to us. betsey stevenson, former labor department chief economist. it does not matter how bullish you are, how quickly you think you will recover. at the end of this year, the fed forecast as well, we get towards year end and we are still around 9%, 10% unemployment, and it is not good enough. once you get there, that is where the slog is going to begin. what we see right now is just a mechanical bounceback in the data. you go from shutdown to reopen, you bounceback. that recovery will be a whole lot slower. tom: there's any number of ways to look at this. we don't have the time to wax
7:55 am
philosophical about it. the bottom line is there are some optimistic houses out there. there are houses looking at a v-shaped recovery. but the recent virus overlay, all of a sudden you are not out to the third week of july, or dare i say the third week of august. you have labor plans and family plans beginning to be framed for october and january of next year. that's what's new. jonathan: this has been the story over the last three or four months. june,became a, may became etc., and all of a in fall and still struggling to normalize. lisa: and to the point that tom was making about schools, we don't know when they are going to reopen. how can people get back to work and how can we resume any sort of normalcy if everyone's kids are trying to do their school work from home, which means trying to keep them away from videogames? jonathan:jonathan: i imagine that is a personal issue with
7:56 am
lisa abramowicz right now. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on this payroll thursday, good morning. this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
7:57 am
7:58 am
7:59 am
8:00 am
>> know when at this point, analysts, strategist, portfolio managers has a great sense of what earnings will be. >> you have a fed that is looked into big television camera and said we are just printing the money. >> this is not just a discussion about whether there will be a recovery or not. let's not confuse a bounce with a recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is the oddest jobs day ever. a question about that.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on