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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  July 13, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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steel. i johnson is in london. we are counting down to the european close. i have a prompter, i have a clock. that is exactly what i am feeling like with the markets. it is more pronounced over in europe. tomorrow,ry about when that enthusiasm, that initial my world has changed feeling starts to unwind. i worry that could happen in the markets. the earningshere season starts. i think it is going to get really interesting. we will talk more in a few minutes time. stocks that are really driving high. take a look at tesla. we are north of 80% over the last 10 days. the s&p is up by 1.24%. european stocks up by 8/10 of
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1%. bdp's are faring relatively well. we are waiting to see what is going to happen on the back end of this week. storyl be a significant as we get a rating based on the 750 billion euro rescue fund. you want to pay attention to what is happening. , potentialbig supply for it to strike. that is another factor that we need to throw into the mix. what we have coming up later, we will speak to the outgoing boss of the euro group. he will be joining us to give us his take. and wille the governor be transitioning over to the ecb . we will talk more about the fiscal side of the equation. that is for later. let's talk about what is
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happening now in the markets. we are trying to figure out earnings and that macro picture inthe stimulus package europe. bilal joins us. let's talk about europe and expectations going into this week. clearly, expectations are high. we are waiting for a deal to be done on the 750 billion euro package. if we do get back, there could be a new rating in europe. how would you see it? how would you position for it? bilal: that is a very good question. e.u. summit is critical. we are not sure about whether we will get a formal announcement.
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it is certainly clear that angela merkel is pushing hard to push a broader agreement to approve the e.u. recovery fund. i think it will go through. we are not sure whether the announcement will come on the weekend or in the subsequent few weeks. campaign from emmanuel macron and angela merkel seems to be moving toward agreement around this. , think that it is significant his recovery fund, because in addition to that, we also have germany's fiscal stimulus as well. it is suggesting there has been genuine movement toward the area , sharing fiscal risks. this could have a profound impact. we could see the continued rally
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and could see that euro continue to depreciate. alix: so, i wonder, as we move forward, are we going to look at the recovery plan in its health as a good thing -- in itself as a good thing? clearly come of the employment flexibility we have in the u.s. is turning into a negative, with how easy it is to declare chapter 11, that is turning into a negative in the u.s.. when are we going to learn which side is doing it right so investors know where to put their money? bilal: that is a good question. the end, historians will assess which one worked faster not. the u.s.ll say is that fiscal months to respond was large and immediate.
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larges the europeans was and it is building. it is increasing and it is likely to be more protracted. there is a difference in pace as well as the structure. in some ways, it is slower and more widespread as well. that could bode well for europe as a whole. here between europe and the u.s. is where u.s. companies would be much more aggressive in maintaining their profit margins. you could end up in a worse employment situation in the u.s.. puttinge europeans are up lower proper -- profit margins. it depends on what you are
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therefore. for.ere the earnings season, expectations are low. i am struggling to see how this could end up with the market moving to the downside. completes will have to disappoint. if they do, they will likely be told by the market, we will write it off. we knew it was going to be bad. u.s. there buy-in that the earnings are going to be expectations? bilal: yes. it is so tough for everyone to interpret because everything is shut down. i agree --
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, incredibly low expectations. they could even spin that positively as well. which would set themselves up for a max out for subsequent quarters. i think it will be a challenge for the markets to be too disappointed relative to expectations. in the past, people may focus on the earnings numbers, to kind of see how marketshare trends are emerging. there could be some information in the area. guy: -- alix: what is the number one line you will be looking at? many are talking about loan-loss reserves. european banks, that is not
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comparable when it comes to their loan-loss reserves. the ecb says they are doing it differently and looking ahead to 2021. how do you look at a relative value situation and look at the lines on their balance sheet for example? tough tothink that is compare them to each other. i would try to get some sense on their guidance in general. any information they have on which segments of the economy are under more stress than another could be interesting. that will tie into government support programs and central-bank programs. u.s., you don't see much of the street lending ability. tot suggests ask are able cover wending themselves without resort to using the central banks.
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seeing there is a large issue about credit and equities. about wanted to think investment banking and whether returns are available are not. it seems unlikely investment returns will be as good. guy: quick question on the tech sector. i keep watching the charts and i can't believe what i'm seeing. i kind of wonder whether or not tech is going to be the most fickle part of this earnings -- difficult part of this earnings season. it is the only place where expectations remain relatively high. is there a danger that because
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the rest of the market has lower expectations, it does relatively better. bilal: in general, what we have seen is that what you have is a strong risk appetite. strong riskhave a smaller tends to do well. it tends to do well when you have this broad rally. as for the broader trend in all oft has accelerated the tech trends that were going to happen anyway. i think the biggest risk for tech is probably lying around the fiscal side. divide in the upcoming u.s. election or the trade war the u.s. and china. i think those are the areas where you could probably see
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more downsized risk for tech, earnings- rather than and economic models. great toays really catch up with you. walt disney is going to close ong kong disneyland coming july 15. that is due to a resurgence in coronavirus numbers. they opened with limiting capacity in hong kong on june 18. significant because last weekend, disney world in florida it reopened with limited capacity. what kind of lag will we see? same kind ofe conversation. sending kids back to the classroom. we will discuss safety as well with avag challenges brawl just at the mount zion school of medicine. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ we know that children get the virus at a far lower rate than any other part of the population. again, there is nothing in the data that would suggest that kids being back in school is dangerous to them. in fact, it is more a matter of their health and well-being that they be back in school. that was the u.s. secretary of education rounds on television. dr., it is so important to understand the repercussions of this. your prescription to how we do that? with basic to be
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precautions in mind. there is not enough data to understand what the virus does in kids. it might be different with different age groups of children. hard to say how to open safely. somenk we can look to example to europe on how this was done. i don't think there is a good recipe yet. there is not enough data yet to how the conditions in different age groups of children look like. guy: i am really curious about the demographics surrounding this virus and the levels of
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asymptomatic patients that we have. as the demographic becomes younger, i am assuming the number of asymptomatic patients will increase and increased dramatically. how do we get a handle on this? testing randomly is one way of doing this. i am wondering is that something that we will ultimately have to apply to schools as well as we work our way through this process. all the way of three universities as well. universities as well. >> it helps to understand the dynamics of what is going on. if you don't have an understanding of the virus, you cannot take the measures. alix: to that point, it feels like picking up intensity is what we should be doing. outbreaks, ihe have been hearing reports that bottlenecking,ch
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not enough tests or they can't get it done. are a lot of people who want to get tested. this is now getting overwhelmed. if you are smart, you put systems in place. to deliver results within hours. thaton infections say coming back within days or weeks counteract theto ongoing outbreak. guy: is there an easier way to test kids? . have had a test
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it was a fairly unpleasant experience. i feel for the health care workers who have to have this on a fairly regular basis. kidsere a way we can test that is actually something we can do practically, on a regular racist to try and get an idea of what is happening -- regular basis to try and get an idea of what is happening in school? it seems like a perfect place where we will have to test and test regularly. i have done the test on myself. it is very unpleasant. throughng that goes your brain is unpleasant. that would be a noninvasive way of doing the test, through saliva. guy: i got --
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alix: i got two tests, if you laugh during the nasal swab, it does not hurt as much. my daughter cannot get tested. she is five. if you go, they will not do the test. what do we do for little kids? >> may be with saliva. there are a number of studies that show it is a possibility that saliva would be the more practical solution here. it would be doable with little kids. continuing with the , whatgy of all of this level of herd immunity do we need to get among our kids? is it easier to generate herd immunity within kids? goes touming the virus them. if they are going to generate
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antibodies, i'm wondering how quickly they are going to do it. >> this is a complex question. i do not have an easy answer for you. thatow that from a study there are some kids that can have strong antibody responses. we don't know what level of antibodies you need to be protected. if your antibody level is too low, you might not be protected. there are a lot of questions out there that we are not ready yet to address. there is a lot of research that
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needs to be done. a how muchfind antibodies need to be protected and how much do the antibodies last. this leads to the obvious question, which is the vaccine. with everyone having dramatic, different reactions to covid when they get it, does that change how they react to antigens? >> of course. we know from other vaccines that some vaccines have nonresponders. others might have a short lasting response. that is common with each and every vaccine. if somebody has immunity, they
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might respond better. guy: thank you so much for your time. i greatly appreciate it. thank you very much, indeed. coming up, we will get back to european politics and economics. still ahead, our interview with the former your group boss. we will get his take ahead of friday's council meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at some of the biggest business stories. a big transaction in the andconductor industry,
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equity value of $20.9 billion. that represents the premium to maxim's closing price on friday. and a lot has been looking for a way to decrease the gap with texas instruments. reported higher than expected sales and profits. the company owes doritos and mountain dew. high global share of the market. google announced a $10 billion fund to help speed up india's digital economy. the company will invest in india over the next five to seven years. investments will include affordable access and information for every indian in their own language and leveraging technologies for social good. that is your bloomberg business flash. when is starting to get a
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nice bounce. it will lift -- china is going to lift the quarantine requirements on macau travelers. at disney and what is happening in hong kong. you kind of pause for a moment. alix: they reopened hong kong at the end of june and now in mid july, they will close their facilities again. you may reopen but then what. it was what we are scared of months ago and it looks like it is happening. guy: it is interesting. reopening thisda week and. european closes next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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until regulars trading ends this monday for european equities. let's take a look at how the
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session has left. a pretty good legacy out of asia. we cap hire first thing this morning. this will not be captured on the chart i am about to show you. aain, we are finishing on fairly positive note. volume remains quite like. keep an eye on volatility this week. that will be an important metric to gauge how the market is perceiving the reporting season as it develops. individual markets around europe, you see the miners doing well. pop are doing well. some of the -- copper doing well. some of the miners will benefit. let's take a look at the ftse, the dax, and the cac 40. the outperformance -- it was earlier a little more. the ftse 100 up 1.5, the cac up one -- the dax up 1.4%, the cac 40 up 1.8%.
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the sector breakdown looks like this. tradingseen the miners strongly. the caveat comes in terms of what we are seeing with the volume. chemicals have done well. they bounce up a little bit. travel and leisure, more cyclic bull -- more cyclical balance. talking at one of the utilities, atlantia out of italy has been a focus of attention. the prime minister backing down to the political narrative developing in italy when it comes to what is going on with the auto proposal to deal with the 2018 genoa bridge collapse has been rejected by the government. down much more. case study of what we see with the earnings season. expectations very low.
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quite exposed to the auto sector. the numbers seem to be better. the stop being rewarded. t, pay attention to what 5.3%,pening here, down facing management changes. there has been reports of sexual misconduct. a number of people are leaving. 5.32% as a result of that. i mentioned what is happening nobel.zo they have been left in the dust by what is happening in tesla. to offerntinuing wide-eyed abasement with tesla -- wide-eyed amazement with tesla. let's talk about what is going on with the auto sector with scarlet fu. scarlet: left in the dust is a generous way to put it.
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if you are looking at europe and the u.s. and asia, the auto sector is in the red as companies had to shut down operations completely when covid-19 first dropped. in europe we know the auto sector was already trying to revamp their operations before covid-19. their specific challenge includes electrification. tesla has fallen behind the market leader and now that they need to conserve cash, that tech advantage threatens to gap open even more and they cannot spend the money they need to to catch up. is delaying its latest electric car model until next october. that gives you a sense. the auto sector is much more important for europe than the united states. in europe it makes up 7% of gdp. 14 million jobs. the u.s. auto sector is less consequential on every count, especially total market share, although it does get closer
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because it does not include tesla. of, since our stock of the hour is tesla, guiding every break has been, oh my god, it is this price. it is in a league of its own. guy: that is right. dan ives says tesla could announce game changing to elements at that event in late september. in the meantime, tesla could be stock of the month and stock of the year because it is up more than 60% in july and has only fallen once. since the march low it has gone from $361 to almost $1800. this month tesla reported better-than-expected second-quarter delivery numbers and that has raised expectations it could posted gap profit for the second quarter. that is the last hurdle the company needs for inclusion in the s&p 500, which would confer prestige and also give passive
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index funds a big reason to buy up all of those tesla shares so we can better track the index. over $325rket cap is billion. ,f you look at the s&p 500 bigger than p&g, bigger than jp morgan, bigger than exxon mobil. the biggest automaker. up with thiscame fantastic chart to contrast tesla with the rest of the automakers. it's market cap per vehicle sold orshe's market cap and 290 times what fee at is that. it is like they are not even in the same sector. alix: i do not even understand looking at that chart. thanks to scarlet fu. david wells, bloomberg's detroit bureau chief joins us now. scarlett brought up maybe tesla will be added to the s&p. is this what this rally is?
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are we front running that? david: possibly. what is going on his first we are seeing a lot of hype and a lot of money and a lot of froth in any stock related to electric vehicles. nicola worth close to $20 billion. we have workhorse with $80,000 in revenue and they're worth well over one billion, and this big one in tesla. the market is telling us they think now is the time where electric vehicles will take off for a variety of reasons, whether it is commercial vehicles or retail consumers. tesla has the best technology and the best brand. then you have this electrification day in september and everyone is assuming they will show batteries with better range, better power, and another change in leadership in terms of the technology above the
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conventional automakers like general motors, ford, daimler, bmw, and the rest. there is talk they will be going to india and that will be a market where they sell vehicles. growth has been good in china. there is a lot of news that points to the direction of growth or continued prowess in electric vehicles that has investors giddy at the moment. guy: this morning i saw another headline that said they would discount by more than $3000. i wonder why that would happen, to excuse the pun. is it because we live in a covid world, is it because they are not selling as many of these cars as anticipated and they want to boost demand, why discount a car that has only just gone to the market? david: it is difficult in a
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covid world to tell why they are not getting the sales they need at the price they want they have to do some discounting. we are seeing a lot of deals on ev's in the u.s. market and elsewhere and unconventional vehicles as well because the demand is not quite there for anything compared to what it was a year ago. tesla fill that plan for a certain volume and it is tough to get that in opposed covid world. that is the conclusion investors are making. i do not think it is an unreasonable one. we have to see in six or 12 months hoping that the world has normalized, whether they are actually giving the demand. it is one of those points that makes tesla so difficult to value. you have strong growth of their vehicles in china. the model y has done very well, the model 3 has done well the world over. a lot of shorts do not think those vehicles would get out on
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time and so well, and they are. there are always points where they are discounting were not giving quite the demand of certain markets in europe. this tells you this company is not godlike, it is run by humans, and they have their problems. where chinaint growth is a big part of the story, and once the world gets back to a normal market, normal kind of demand, we will see how successful these tesla models are in china, particular you has competition from other automakers ramps up in that market. guy: always appreciate your time. thanks for the analysis. david welch, bloomberg's detroit bureau chief. cars doing relatively well in the european trading story. let's take a look at the final numbers that have now been posted in europe. an upsurge into the close for european markets.
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a little dip on the dax and a little dip on the cac 40 during the auction, but nothing to speak about. we continue the coverage of what is happening over the world with the markets at the top of the hour. the cable show on dab digital radio in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i am alix steel with guy johnson in london. a big event this week. eu leaders are meeting for their first in-person summit in months to hash out the details of the recovery package. german legal secretary michael ross told bloomberg the
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so-called frugal four would not stay in the way of an agreement. >> the eu has to face an unprecedented crisis and that is why solidarity and unity is key for us. we have to send a clear signal to the countries which are most affected by the pandemic. to agree oneasy such a huge amount of money, but i fully agree with the member states, which express a strong commitment to the future oriented challenges of the eu. that means climate digitalization, strengthening the rule of law. that is in our common interest. willingness is the to form a compromise. there is some tensions and negotiations with the so-called frugal four, the member states who want conditionality in terms of dispersing the funds.
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what you think can be offered to the frugal four to get a deal? michael: i agree with the so-called frugal four that we have to modernize the european ourn and we have to focus financial activities on climate, digitalization, rule of law, social cohesion. there is room for maneuver, but at the end i am optimistic we will agree as soon as possible. >> as soon as possible means maybe even next week or do you think this could spill into august? it is a special responsibility for all member states. we have to face an unprecedented crisis, and what we need are swift solutions and a very ambitious outcome of the negotiations, so i hope we can reach an agreement which is acceptable for all in july.
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germany's michael roth caulking -- talking to bloomberg on friday. let's talk to somebody who has been close to the action on the prospect of the euro recovery fund. joining us as mario santino, former peer group president -- former euro group president. thank you for your time today. do you think we are going to get a deal at the council meeting coming up towards the end of this week, and if we do not get a deal, when do you expect to get a deal done on this rescue fund? >> good afternoon and thank you for having me. it is a much-needed deal. leaders can close into a deal as soon as this week, or at the latest at the end of the month. the euro group in april has set response for a fast
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and took the first steps of response for the crisis and now we need to close the deal to strengthen the confidence of investors, of citizens in the recovery phase. it is very important. alix: will the deal eventually come with any type of strings. we will get the frugal four on this -- on board with this? mario: i think we have enough givesning room, and this margin for maneuvers at the negotiation table to find an agreement that suits everyone in europe. a difficult process when we negotiate in europe. we have different views over the final agreement, but this time
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around i think the european council has enough so as to bargain and find a deal that buts not only frugal [indiscernible] guy: we have seen a polish election. does the reelection of president duda make it slightly more difficult to make this happen? floutedargue poland has some of the rules that are at the core of the eu and the prospect of further erosion of media freedom there as well? mario: disagreement is variant -- this agreement is very important for poland. poland is a big part of the agreement and everyone understands. we are having elections at all times in europe. this is one of the characteristics of our democratic nature.
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we have mature democracies. i do not think one should be put in front of the other. the fact that we had a democratic election in poland last weekend's of our own nature. we need to work with all governments. governmenthe polish and the newly elected -- and the reelected polish president understand how important it is for poland an agreement on these subjects. alix: going into the meeting there'll be a lot of grandstanding, at least that is how it looks like for the u.s. how can investor understand the difference between the noise and the negotiating tactics versus a country taking a harder stance. importanthink it is that we understand the relevance of closing the deal.
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some countries use more hard ways to negotiate. honestly, i think what is important facing these weeks european council and having in mind that we must provide tority for economic agents get out of this pandemic crisis. we have already enough .ncertainty political uncertainty is not important -- it is something we should avoid. we must look at other examples of regions and countries that are facing difficulties in terms of clarity on how to fight the pent -- on how to fight the pandemic, on how to respond economically.
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what is your assessment, you talk about the uncertainty that exists at the moment and we try to figure out what that uncertainty means in economic terms. are you starting to see things improving? three or four months ago we were all incredibly nervous. where are we now in your mind in europe's economy? mario: that is very interesting point to make. there are mixed signals from indicators. on the one hand you have forecast, and forecasts are very negative. most countries will only return to pre-covid levels in terms of activity in 2022. that will be higher. unemployment will continue increasing for quite some time yet. improve, did not although months on months, if
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andgo from march to april show a response, year on year things are not that bright. sentiment indicators and confidence indicators have a .-shaped this is interesting and it is important for politicians to deliver on their cities so we can -- to deliver so we can see the positive sentiment and positive mood. look at pmi, look at sentiment and economic indicators out of germany, france, spain, across europe, and you will see an impressive recovery. most of these indicators, in particular the pmi for the eurozone are already at the level of precrisis, that is december levels.
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some of them below 50%. the threshold that defines a recession. getting close to the 50% mark. what i think is needed for these indicators to continue his for politicians to deliver on their decisions, on to make it clear recovery past -- alix: in the meantime, it feels like the ecb has been responsible for helping to prop up the euro zone. as you prepare to take your seat at the ecb, what else are they going to have to do in terms of the pepp program and how the composition winds up there in relation to whether we get a 750 billion euro recovery fund. what kind of stuff will they have to find?
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mario: proceedings regarding my appointment are still ongoing. i would not like to make much of a comment out of monetary policy, also because it is a quiet period for monetary policy comments. let me tell you that it is true what you are saying regarding the response of our monetary harm in europe. contrary toound, 2010, we also have the fiscal harm acting quickly in addition to monetary. this time around europe shows some unity in ways we respond to the crisis. this is important to continue into the future. fiscalllions of euros in and monetary time mention and we will continue. one final quick question.
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do you think european companies should put preserving jobs ahead of profitability? term, in the short think we need to be ready to react as soon as demand kicks in. the only way to do this is to have our jobs ready. the strategy of europe was the correct one. preserve jobs so that we can aspond as quickly and fast demand responds. after a little bit, we need to think of profitability, of solvency, the long run is very important for firms. as this crisisth evolved and we get out of the woods, we need to think in a
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broader sense on the feasibility of firms in the future. let's not be mistaken. there are no imbalances this time around in firms or in about andbe worried jobs are very important. mario santino -- mario former -- mario centeno, euro group president. ecb bank lending survey tomorrow. the bank earnings season as well. jp morgan, citigroup, wells fargo. such a busy week building up to the council meeting friday in europe. alix: looking forward to that.
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and to drill on bank earnings, it is a low reserve provision story, but i have to wonder how the trading revenue will stack up. it is so great and will not be sustained. what are they left with after that if there provisions keep rising? particularly with goldman's balance sheet i think they may pull back. interesting to see what effect that has. alix: also emerging-market central banks. a busy week. that wraps it up for guy and myself on this monday. coming up in the u.s., "balance of power" with david westin. he speaks to florida congresswoman and former hhs secretary. ♪ it's pretty inspiring the way families
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for kids at home- all on xfinity x1. we're committed to helping all families stay connected. learn more at 49i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. download the xfinity stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. xfinity. the future of awesome. ♪ this is "balance of
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power" where the world of politics meets the world of business. we will start again today with the markets. on the upswing. abigail doolittle is here to explain. we are off to a fresh start this week. abigail? we are going to keep trying to get -- i do want to hear what is going on in the markets. down in washington, and maybe a hot july, but things are not cooling down in washington because they have the u.s.-china trade tensions, they have a fourth round of stimulus, and there is a presidential election going on. to take us through it all, we go to isaac boltansky, policy director for research at compass point. welcome. there is a back-and-forth on u.s. china


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