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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  July 15, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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10:00 a.m. in new york. 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day. i'm guy johnson. welcome to bloomberg markets. vaccines is driving a huge rotation in these markets today. detect -- >> the nasdaq is up, but it is the under performer, if you can say that versus other equities. there are financial seven to highlight. those materials and industrials are leading the way. european stocks catching a bid, i wonder how much that is priced into a european recovery fund. we might hear more over the weekend. or, is it a fundamental shift in the value trade? we will break that down. we will also be talking about oil, opec and how companies are handling the pandemic.
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that is coming up next. i mentioned if the goldman shares soaring after reporting 93% revenue trading in the second quarter. the analyst call is underway. what are some of the highlights you can tell us? >> there is or uncertainty. david solomon did say violet has been very uncertain as far as outlook for reopening, he gave us expectations on what to expect. the expectations for the u.s. have gotten better. for the globe, worse. this number is equates to a and more than 6% globally next year. if you think banks are undervalued now and you are seeing this type of expansion next year, you are in better shape. that uncertainty still exists. goldman also gets credit for being able to improve their capital ratios closer to where
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the fed wants them to be. by selling off assets here and there, we saw a big insurance sale last week to kkr, and being able to offload assets such as leverage loans of the sword. -- of the sort. carol: -- guy: talk about the ratio, they have come up 13.6. does that mean investors can assume the dividend is much more safe than it was? solani: investors are going to assume that. they want to stay committed to dividends. remember, goldman had their first investor day earlier this year. they're on their way to meeting those targets. our ot up at 11%. up atmpressive -- roe 11%. they are also making progress on a lot of other areas.
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they're making change even while meeting federal reserve standards. that is expanding consumer business, i'll be at at lower rates than last quarter. at expanding in their plans to raise capital to expand their merchant bank. let's dig into banks more. on the phone, marty mosey. let's pick up on what we were talking about, that includes shrinking risk-weighted assets. they coupled $4 billion in equity that helped the ratio. are investors going to like long-term on goldman that is going to be taking on less risk? >> yes. they really don't get much credit for much of the gains as they get out of that portfolio anyway. bringing that down and getting capital ratios up. the things we are looking for today is can they continue to preserve capital, and if they
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can continue to grow tangible capital. the ability to sustain dividends and provide for potential losses. what we are seeing in goldman's they are covering all three of those bases. when you are trading close to tangible value, that's all you have to do. if you can accomplish those, you movestrength, you start to that overall premium back up. those of the things we are watching for. we are seeing them accomplish that. guy: how sustainable is it? that is the question everyone is asking. volatilityn a lot of , we have seen capital market business is doing really well. is this something that can be repeatable? elevatedhas got to be investment banking needs as well as transactions and restructurings. much higherer was than what you would be able to
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continue at that level. what was also happening was you were providing. you saw jp morgan, goldman sachs, citigroup, all the ones that had this extra revenue take it and put it away in other places. even though revenues can come down, still remain strong but not at the peak they were at the second quarter. you don't have to provide -- those other losses. goldman sachs put over $1 billion in that litigation expense. those are things they are doing while having strong earnings so the net of those two things can come back to a little lower level but sustained at profits. -- debt struck by the fees and equity fees almost doubled. there debt underwriting, equity underwriting currently strong. up.ceo expects it to pick what is your outlook in the second half for those metrics?
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is goldman the one that is going to win? best toan is positioned be able to help when it comes to advice and strategic positioning. when you talk about debt or equity underwriting, that is investment banking business. that can stay elevated because there's that have to be made that will continue for the rest of the year. the part that comes back down is capital market transactions. what you are seeing just in trading and restructuring of par 4 leo's head-to-head -- of portfolios had to happen in the second quarter. you get into may and june and people get back into the market, the market starts to rebound. all of that was happening through the second quarter. capital markets will come down. guy: can ask you a big picture question? to think the fed is going to be embarrassed or relieved about
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these numbers? these are strong numbers at the time when the arrest -- the rest of the economy is suffering. is that going to be a problem for the fed? is goingomething that to come back? >> no. the fed will take a big sigh of relief. what the fed wants to see is our third point. they want to see these banks providing for potential losses. havergan, with what they gone through, has provided for 50% of the losses expected. with the elevated covid number losses. when you're looking at the fed come up what they are learning is safety and soundness in the abilities of these banks to have this infusion of earnings up front when there is a lot of restructuring and rebalancing going on. that will drift back down to a
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more normal level going into next year. the fed loves that these banks are able to create reserves for potential losses and get ahead of the game. that is what they are focused on more. in the call, david solomon opened up, saying the path reopening and corresponding economic consequences remain unclear. i think what guy is trying to get at is everything is uncertain and everything is bad for a lot of people. a lot of unemployment benefits are running out at the end of july. you have goldman sachs which everyone loves to hate, having amazing solid results and doubling trading revenue. i wonder if that shines a spotlight back on them in a different kind of sense if we can't get economic recovery going. >> what you have is assets. the fed can take credit for this, reducing that she talks
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about, will in fact -- will investors like the fact that goldman has reduced risk? yes. when you get into these periods, they are not shackled by what is happening in the sense of their own balance sheet inside their own institutions. the banks, because they are in a better institution, are now being able to do transactions. these are transactions that customers are needing to do to make sure they are taking care of themselves. you are seeing them defer payments, pushing out not just goldman, all banks are pushing out payments to help customers. the strengths of de-risking allows this to happen so the money center banks can have the transactional volume to create income. they are helping customers and creating reserves which, in the end, will help our economy bridge over this collapse we have had.
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always insightful. think you for your time. take mosby giving us his on what is happening in the banking sector. sachs.cifically goldman saria malik is going to give us her take on where we are sitting right now. she is not making bids -- big bets right now. this is bloomberg. ♪
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london, i am guy johnson. markets."loomberg
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at the beginning of the week, tech was in focus. completing that rotation story as a result of what we are getting. here with details -- >> encouraging development out of moderna. modernity has cleared an important milestone, it produced antibodies in all patients tested. astrazeneca is developing a vaccine with the university of oxford. a new report says the medical journal will release positive results from early tests. their and -- saw treatment which uses messenger rna get fast-track status from the fda. all of this means we are seeing the dharna at a record high. analysts see a 60% upside from here. if thisyst says -- succeeds based on a $75 price tag, modernity could see $18
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billion in revenue. so far, modernity up 300%. other companies working on vaccines are climbing more. this morning, we have seen less enthusiasm for the highflying tech names. the dow outperforming s&p and nasdaq. can returneans life to normal and the rotation is back on into those beleaguered cyclicals. travel companies, airlines, car rental agencies, resorts all doing better. restaurants like brinker, -- all doing better. you have stay-at-home stocks underperforming. all down.mazon are so too is zoom. i am hoping we can move on from zoom and see each other in person. guy: that would be nice. thank you very much.
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for more on what is happening with stocks and how they are rallying, saira malik. do i need to start getting my portfolio properly ready for the arrival of a vaccine, and the difference that is going to make in terms of assets saira: -- in terms of assets? saira: we are still in the lower for longer camp. lower market returns and a longer trajectory toward recovery. risks,l have election reopening's are going to be staggered. market valuations are becoming concerning. year-to-date, markets are flat. a review on earnings is that they want recover to pre-covid levels until 2022. we don't see the market breaking out to new highs until 2021.
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declan -- that gives us that lower market return scenario. the easy money has been made. alix: breaking news, walmart is requiring customers wearing face masks in their stores starting july 20. this is a nationwide policy. a lot of workers have been calling for this. while mark -- walmart will require that starting july 20. saira, do you need to be financialnto value materials, industrials out of tech, or is this the call that is never going to work? saira: i think the value call will work for short periods of time. we see these spikes and recoveries. we would not use growth and technology. . to fund value calls given what we see through moderate economic growth, you want to stay with quality growth in the u.s. and look for your data outside the u.s.. international markets are cheaper than the u.s..
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there is interesting technology consumer companies and regions you can own outside the u.s. to get your data. you can capitalize on the moderate growth receipt going forward. -- moderate growth you see going forward. guy: which specifically? saira: we like china and asian markets. china has done a good job managing through the covid crisis. stimulus is in place. guangdong. to look for really beaten-down segments like brazil, which is not doing a great job. the country was one of the worst performing. that could have a nice catch up trade. europe is more of a valued place. it could have some cyclicals working in the u.s., but we are , markets china, brazil
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with very good job stealing with the crisis. alix: is any of that going to be dependent on stimulus from the government? bid inlike there is a europe because may be recovery funds and new austerity versus here in the u.s. we can't get our act together. view depend on the government and some kind of way? saira: globally, the world is dependent on help from the government. we have seen 3 trillion in stimulus over the past year. we check to see more and we hope to see more. i think that is good support for markets globally. international markets i think is more based on if there valuations are cheaper. also, how well they have dealt with the crisis i think sets them up for a stronger how very. -- a strong recovery. guy: what are you taking away
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from u.s. bank reporting season? it does seem as if the capital markets businesses are doing well. what you take away from that? is this an area you want to own? saira: our question is around sustainability of the numbers we are seeing with capital markets business. earnings across the board were down significantly. ray not surprised to see some of these -- we are not surprised to see these. we do not think we are going to get clear outlooks from these companies. for banks, we are not as positive because we are worried about lower interest rates. we think some of the regions they are doing well right now are for reasons that are sustainable like capital markets and trading. goldman sachs is one of the higher quality banks. in that sector, we are -- companies like goldman sachs and jp morgan. but as a whole, we are not a fan. alix: what do you do with tech? saira: you want to stick with
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companies that can capitalize on megatrends. software, a handful of companies have gotten above the 5 billion revenue level. if you're going to pay the premium for technology, though with the winners that can capitalize on trends. robotics, artificial intelligence, the cloud, there are times when if you can find the right company that could get up above the 5 billion paths -- plus revenue and stay there. you have to be careful out, -- you have to be careful, otherwise you are paying premiums. question, do you feel like you are flying blind? a huge portion of the esan is not giving guidance -- the s&p is not giving guidance. do you wonder about how much guidance is coming from the rest of them? as we look at recently stretched
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multiples whether or not you feel you can make accurate decisions when it comes to making investments in these kinds of corporations? near-term values are exactly that. it is murky. we expect volatility around things like the election. this is where you want to focus on the long term. where and when can earnings get to levels we can count on? we are saying we think we can hit pre-covid levels of earnings in 2022. 2021, thate that in gives us a single digit upside. this is where you can be able to forecast and a couple of years what we will look like when we are more back to normal, and look at the markets based on that. the short-term is going to be challenging given the valuations and uncertainty. alix: always good to catch up. saira malik of global equities. this is bloomberg ♪
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alix: ben bernanke is back writing an op ed. his part of phil murphy's restart and recovery commission in new jersey, basically saying local and state governments cannot recover by themselves. they need help. we think about what is happening in washington, in the next round of stimulus, this is important. u.k., weurope, in the tried austerity after the last crisis. at some point you have to balance the books, but you don't want to do it short-term. it has devastating consequences. at a moment like this, i would argue the lessons of history need to be learned. it is interesting, the debate in the u.k. is about making the debt that has been taken on super long-term.
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you don't have that short-term need to balance the books. in the states, the states have to balance those books. alix: i wonder if we are leaning more towards repeating those mistakes that erupted in the last crisis. i wonder if we are seeing that reflected in the market. euro continues to get big. there is trade inflows going into the european market. more rotation, less tentativeness about buying europe. i wonder what part that plays into the narrative even when, as bernanke pointed out, -- comes with tight restrictions. we have not even gotten to that fourth stimulus which you know it's going to be controversial. guy: that election is going to be critical. see if be interesting to the democrats were to win and there would be a blue sweep how we would see them spinning money. towas interesting listening
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joe biden talking about what he is going to do on sustainable energy. that sounds similar to europe. the need for this new deal for retooling the economy. yes, the u.s. is behind in this way, but if it spends big it can catch up. it will be interesting to see what direction we had there. whether that ultimately does take place come up because that will be a fight for europe. that may put europe trade in balance. alix: more difficult as we keep having regional shutdowns. coming up, we are talking opec and its allies looking to boost production in august. we will discuss that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: from london it, i am guy johnson. alix steel in new york. u.s.berg users expecting a
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crude stockpile draw of 7.5 million barrels aired -- barrels. >> is coming out now. the reason will be tracking out this data is that it is going to have a pass-through on overall inventories. this sets the stage for opec as they are looking to increase production. here are the numbers. you have a sizable draw. a 7.5 million barrel draw in overall inventory. remember, keystone and the dakota access pipeline cannot continue its flows. the dakota gas inventory also saw a draw. i wonder how long that can be sustained. and demand all across the board stronger, but again, can that stay as regional lockdowns or even just fear continues in those sun belt states?
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joining us is amrita sen, a chief oil analyst. picture inemand terms of what we do in regional shutdowns in some ways makes opec's job harder. where are they at in terms of raising production in august? amrita: i think it is very much said to be for august. we have been saying this for a few weeks. they will go to phase two, if you were to call it that. right now, they will be cutting production by around 9.7 billion barrels a day. tore is a baseline that goes 7.7, but it is actually 7.6. the important thing is that you iraq whostan and need to catch up. the net increase in production for opec is going to be potentially 2.2 million barrels per day. yes, demand is wobbly, but
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seeing an increase in supply. if there was another problem, how flexible is opec going to be? it seems to take quite a lot of effort to get this deal done. honest, the latest meeting was relatively easy compared to the last few. comments have been quite promising in that they do acknowledge, and i know from our sources yesterday they did discover -- they did discuss the potential for a second wave. remember this is a to your framework -- a two-year framework. the framework is there. if demand were to falter, they would be quicker to go back and say, why don't we go back to the phase one cuts rather than
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moving to phase three? just as an example. alix: what they are also trying to commend -- contend with is the demand side. part of the rhetoric is a hake, demand is picking up. they have a demand forecast that is bullish for next year. what do you make of that? amrita: that does stand out. our demand recovery is more like 5 million barrels per day. they have come in with 7 million barrels per day. right now, we are looking at or dealing with numbers that are so wacky it could be possible they are right. it depends on if we get a vaccine and how the second wave turns out to be. but they actually -- absolutely stand out. at the bare minimum, we are in a huge recession, which will take months if not years to come out of. i do not think we can underestimate that. that is my only issue with the
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number, particularly the kind of recovery they are seeing in the oecd, i thing that is to optimistic. optimistic. guy: u.s. shale is struggling. it is not going to come back in the way people expected. it is finding life difficult. the big oil companies are taking a more cautious approach. some wells will never come back. eighth -- a little further out, what does that mean in terms of the supply side story and the rebalancing story? amrita: it almost sounds like you read what we put out yesterday. this is one of the topics we've been putting -- talking to our clients about as well. in oils no interest particularly. shale, the crazy years of one
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million to 2 million barrels of gone.h, or gone -- are this means you will get more investments in russian companies going forward instead of the ioc. it also means higher oil prices. not all of the spare capacity will come back. back, it will be in tandem with demand. where will the next million barrels come from as demand continues to recover? that is a question. nobody is focusing on that. i think we are setting ourselves up for a spike in 20212022. or 2022.1 alix: it is going to be hard to see how the oil industry likes the caps for gasoline demand, the other fuels that will have regulation.
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biden wants 2de d carbonized the u.s. energy carbonizednce to d carbonized -- i will not comment on his policy just yet. despite the plans being talked about, the reality is i think both sides understand the importance of the oil and gas sector for the u.s. economy. it will get harder in terms of permits and all the other bits and pieces, but as a whole the industry is almost saying, oh, we will have peaked demand. working towards that, cutting off supplies well before we get there on the demand side, we can get the demand but it will be because of supply constraints not because demand has actually fallen. even in april, the peak of lockdowns, when everyone thought demand would be down by 40 million barrels, we have the
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data now. demand fell by 18 million barrels per day. that is how inelastic oil is. guy: i always read your notes. us, amritaor joining sen, energy aspects's chief oil analyst. we will speak with barbara humpton about the pandemic and the speak -- the shift to clean energy. that is coming up. this is bloomberg.
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guy: from london, i am guy johnson. alix steel over in new york. companies around the world not
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only fighting covid-19. they're also trying to rapidly change their businesses and the landscape around them. joining us now is an executive for a company that is innovating in energy to health care. president andn is ceo of siemens usa. let's talk about how you have adapted your business. you have had to make changes, but in some ways you have been in the right place at the right time. you make air purifiers. you are in the testing business as well. you are part of this shift to a cleaner energy world. how have you had to adapt the business and push these areas of expertise to make sure your customers are taking full advantage of what you have to offer? barbara: thanks so much. siemens is a company that was built to serve society. the covid crisis has proven that.
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i think of siemens as a national asset. we have served the nation for years. we have technology in industry and infrastructure. what we see during the crisis is that, once we were sure our employees were safe and we have the continuity of business cared for, we were able to open our portfolio and take advantage of technologies that would help in the fight and help keep our customers going. everything from engineers and technicians on the front lines, keeping the lights on, to experts in manufacturing helping manufacture or convert their manufacturing lines and ramped them up for ppe, manufacturing devices -- medical devices, and even pharmaceuticals. he wantsmp indicated the u.s. to get preferred access to any vaccine. what is the conversation like between the pharma industry and politicians? industry haspharma
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a singular focus on the vaccine. on siemens part, we have been focusing on testing. very reliable total antibody test. withe going to partner up leaders around the world to make sure we make these new discoveries available. siemens is involved in two ways. one is health care experts, but also in the expertise of digital manufacturing. we have been working with pharmaceutical leaders to help actual drugs themselves as well as a production process. getting ready to ramp up production and the logistics that will ensure the right materials get to everyone in the process. sitting in washington. the differences across america in how the virus is ravaging
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local economies is huge, local populations is huge. what are you seeing? how are different states handling it? california having to reenter lockdown. barbara: this is something that is essential about business. we have long had the belief that networks defeat hierarchies. trying to defeat a crisis like this with command and control is difficult. in ouremens did early response was create a framework of the tools we would need to give the ownership, the accountability, to local leaders who were dealing with very different conditions in their communities. so simple decisions like how we safely keep manufacturing operations going to how we safely deploy employees onto the front lines, all of those decisions are very local.
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this has been a moment where we have found the strength of our ownership culture and have discovered leaders all across the country capable of partnering with their local governmental decision-makers. helpedw york, where we to ramp up hospital capacity, to florida where we now are partnering up to see if we can deploy testing devices to help with their track and trace california, where likewise we have been working with local health officials, this has been one of local partnership to solve the very critical issues different communities are facing. alix: could you give me some insight into the other states having issues, like arizona or texas? advancing that is businesses of yours or hurting businesses? of the: probably one most surprising things to come out of this is the sheer need for electricity. we have to make sure we keep
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power flowing because we have transformed so many businesses into digital operations. seen -- wee have have a team that makes switchgear. they are working a mess of hours to help respond. they are also having to be extremely careful because they are dealing with issues of community spread. and as we know, there has been an uptick in cases there. we have been able to see that reflected in many of our operations around the country. in each case, what we are finding is that if we step through our protocols, cleaning, isolating employees who may have been infected, we are able to keep operations rolling. guy: siemens energy is based in germany. the company is headquartered in munich. let's talk about the energy business. we all listened to what joe biden had to say about his plans
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for the energy sector in the united states. is there a conversation happening within the company about maybe creating a second headquarters within the united of the and, if some plans joe biden is talking about come to fruition, with appia cap -- would that be a catalyst for that happening? had somewe have long of the headquarters in the united states for some of our most important power businesses. siemens usa is about 25% of siemens globally. power has had a huge presence here. our energy hub in charlotte produces gear that goes to power plants around the world. in fact, we are a net exporter to the rest of the world. for just about everything that siemens produces, you will find domestic production. we have been proud to have strong manufacturing -- a strong
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manufacturing supply chain base in the u.s.. now to theonding power supply executive order, helping the administration today understand the force of the components that go into our electric grid. this is a moment of energy transition around the world. it is a moment when supply chains can become more localized. we had siemens are dedicated to reporting -- supporting our customers. alix: please come back. really appreciate the conversation. barbara humpton, president and ceo of siemens usa. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we do need aggressive interventions in crisis, but i think we should make no bones about the fact that these types of interventions are not ultimately dealing with the pandemic. ♪ live from new york, i am alix steel with guy johnson in london. the president has a warning about the economic impact of the
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pandemic. patrick parker says the coronavirus will hit the united states harder than he thought. he spoke with michael mckee. --the manufacturing factor sector has a bounceback. we are seeing good news. , i amty of philadelphia concerned. the concerned not just with lost revenue because of elective procedures being curtailed or delayed, but also in the rural communities here, those health systems have been hurt badly. >> what about the overall u.s. economy? now that we have seen this flareup across the country, are you revising your economic forecast? this, we saw a big hit in the first half of this year. probably about 20%. we thought it would bounceback around 13% in the second half
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and be around 7% down for the year. and unemployment around 10%. we are revising it right now because with the virus surging in the south and southwest of the country, we are concerned about that. i am very concerned about that. so this is going to be a slow recovery. until we get the virus under control, we cannot get the economy back to full throttle. >> you mentioned eds and meds. the first part, you came up as an educator. how important is to get schools open in the fall? >> it isha to do it carefully. to start, for example, we know that in a childcare business, about halfchild -- the childcare institutions are small companies taking care of children. about half of them closed and the remaining ones lost at least 50% capacity. cannotimply, if people
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find care for their children or get their children to school, they will have a hard time working, particularly in a knowledge economy where peoples productivity is really -- where people's productivity is really knowledge. if a concern is weighing on their mind, they will be less productive. we can't do it in a way that puts children or communities at risk. >> a lot of the economy does not seem to be reflected in equity prices. are you concerned about stocks at this point, about a bubble that could pop? >> the equity market is a measure we look at, but i often remind myself it is not the real economy. for me as a policymaker, i am looking at the signals coming from the real economy -- employment data come inflation data, and so forth. >> is there any role for the fed in perhaps controlling the rise
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in equities? >> we had the fed had to act early and aggressively to help stem the damage from this unprecedented pandemic and we did that. so that was job one. now as we start to climb out of this, hopefully sooner rather than later, we will address other issues. but we had to act to secure the economy and help save as much of the economic infrastructure in the country as we could. >> what more could the fed do? someone suggested yesterday that you let the economy run hot for a while and explicitly say you are going to let inflation rise. is that a strategy on the table for you? >> we have been saying for a long time that the 2% inflation goal is symmetric. timee having a difficult doing that, like all developed economies. i am supportive of the idea of letting get -- letting inflation get to 2% before taking any
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action with respect to the rate. philadelphia's patrick harker speaking to michael mckee earlier on. another member of the fed talking about this idea of getting above 2%. trying to understand what the fed's reaction function is now. some people suggesting they should shift the focus toward unemployment because that is a meaningful, real story for real people in their day-to-day lives, keep stimulus going. it does seem at the moment as if they will stick to that 2% symmetrical target on inflation. argue many people would on the ground that, in the real world, inflation is already running relatively hot in the way the fed measures it. alix: totally, just look at day-to-day prices on certain things. i am interested on how this pivoted from yesterday.
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someone said, a thick fog of uncertainty is still surrounds us and downside risks predominate. looking ahead, it will likely be support.te, fiscal she also said we should look at monetary policy going towards longer run accommodations. what are longer run accommodations? if we are already looking at lower yields forever, i wonder what that literally entails, and how that then feeds through the rest of the economy. basically, you could argue it would be a lot better to cut checks for $25,000 per family in the u.s. that making sure amazon's asset prices are boosted. guy: it is helicopter money we are talking here. you do wonder whether or not that is the case. mike asks about the story surrounding asset prices, and at the moment the fed seems quite
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unconcerned about this. if you think about the bank reporting season we have just science -- it -- the the banks are showing signs of stability, but nevertheless trading is epic at the moment. you can see the numbers from jp, goldman sachs today, are really strong. at thoses looking thinking, you may need to do something about that. more on the story in the next hour. we will be speaking to the eu commissioner for health and food safety. we will be talking about the eu's desire to keep -- to get things like remdesivir. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> live from new york i am alix
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steel with guy johnson. s&p literally flat for the year. trying to unwind all of those losses. it is the value trade really taking the spotlight today. guy: yes, and value means euro. the modernity story and the astrazeneca story providing an early catalyst to get things going. up because it is the traveling legislature doing the heavy lifting here today. 6.64.6 to the upside. iag trading strongly. the vaccine will have a material impact on those businesses and our ability to travel. the euro up above 1.14. we do have the ecb coming up tomorrow. let's talk about

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