tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 24, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
recoveryk the v-shaped is very hard to see with continued virus cases. >> when we talk about a correction at this point, we are talking about a normal amount of turbulence in the equity market, which would be about a 10% correction. >> fiscal stimulus gives us that shot in the arm. it buys us time to get there. >> that is what the u.s. economy needs. we are basically right at the edge of a huge fiscal cliff. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a friday, and not a lazy
summer friday. really extraordinary, like the thunder south of manhattan overnight. the thunder out of washington. i know we are talking china, but the republicans simply went down in flames yesterday. no other way to put it. jonathan: it doesn't look good not having a deal before the weekend. you need some kind of agreement within republicans for the weekend. we might not see it until monday. not just the size difference between republicans and democrats. if it is just size, we can work some thing out. but if it's concepts, we got a struggle. i think we've got a struggle on enhanced on it limit benefits. if this economy and the recovery is still constrained and people can't go back to work because these industries can't normalize, then you have got to have a trade-off. if you want to remove those benefits, here is the trade-off. you are going to have softer consumption through summer. tom: and big business this week, you see it in diminished
revenues. it is a number you could never imagine. the bond market move yesterday on the republican disappointment to lower yields. lisa: you see lower yields on the suffering side, but in the corporate debt market, yields tick a little higher. this comes in tandem with the risk off field we get today. we also got the jobless claims yesterday. we really can't overlook that. the u.s. economy is stalling out, and this comes at a time of incredible policy uncertainty and a rise in u.s.-china tensions. tom: i am just trying to get to the sunday talk shows. you wonder what the political message will be. what is the economic investment message you are looking at for the real yield? jonathan: the most important question now, building on what lisa said, going into summer, are we losing momentum or going in reverse? if we are just losing momentum and we can get some positive growth, some decent data for the months to come, that might be sufficient for risk assets.
if we are going in reverse, if this is the double-dip people feared, we've got a bigger problem. tom: the linchpin we hear in every conversation is the real yield. look for jon's show this weekend. i will give you that quote right ounce. gold, $1891 an for you to reset into august, christopher harvey joins us. he's the wells fargo head of equity strategy, where he writes a blindingly clear one page note. what is the distinction now in the equity markets that has your attention? christopher: i hear all the negatives, but really we are talking about a rate of change, and it is a less bad story. things are getting less bad. you named a few companies come about what we are hearing is the worst is over in the quarter.
we have seen linear progression. what i am not hearing is the fear and the commentary. i am hearing people being conservative, but i am not hearing the fear. that is very constructive. the equity market is up 4% to 5% month to date. we thought we would have an equity market mode top. we think we are halfway there. jonathan: that phrase, melt up, has always been a big theme for you coming into the month of july, going deeper into summer. what is your conviction that we are halfway through a melt up? chris: it is exactly what we were talking about. now we are getting tangible evidence of that story. you have interest rates basically had zero. credit spreads are tight. funding markets are liquid. people are positioned. yes, there are covid hotspots, but some areas are very difficult. two to four weeks, we think
those are much more lukewarm. we think this is a pause. this is not a reversal of the momentum, and we walk higher consequently. lisa: less bad being the key reason perhaps behind the lack of urgency in d.c. no deal going into the weekend. mitch mcconnell trying to wrangle republicans to get some kind of cohesive plan to expand the enhanced on employment benefits. how much has policy backstopped this melt up, and how much does that get stopped if we don't get some kind of extension by the end of next week? chris: the amount of accommodation on the table is phenomenal. the fed balance sheet may be at $10 trillion by the end of the year. that is just hard to comprehend. billions of dollars in fiscal stimulus. a significant amount is related to that. but really, what happens is the gears of the machine sees up --
of the machine seize up. the answer to your question, if we don't get additional stimulus, it will impact the markets. but there's more going on than just stimulus. jonathan: how do you think this market is going to respond to data that shows signs of an economy slowing? how do you think the data changes around that, how investors will be change around how that data changes? chris: the answer to that is always how bad. the claims numbers, we took a step back. but we are in the middle of earnings season, and earnings and the commentary from the c-suite are much more important at this time. right now, that commentary is still pretty constructive. if it gets less constructive or terms negative, then i think we have a problem. jonathan: we are hearing from the airlines they are losing momentum. they are not going backwards. we heard it from the banks. ofarly, we made a lot
mistakes in this country in the sunbelt. we are paying for that. we are seeing signs of the admin station change course. i put this out on twitter yesterday. if the loss momentum in the born out ofa is the states several months ago, when we trade out of that or on the ministration changing course? -- the administration changing course? chris: we will have to agree to disagree because we are seeing the fedexes of this world, the transportation, we are seeing a pretty constructive course. yes, there are situations where things aren't great. if we are going to lose momentum, it is going to be hard to get equities higher. i think the biggest fear we have isn't around this. it is the negative rates scenario. you alluded to rates a few minutes ago. interest rates on 10 year continue to come down. they are getting u.s. financial eternity before they raise
rates. that is a difficult environment if you get that negative rates narrative. that is the biggest fear for us. that fear i think will materialize at some point in time because you can't get rates higher. you're telling the market we are not going to raise rates. eventually that scenario is going to come back, and it is going to be hard in that environment. lisa: another risk for markets markets isfor the that tech valuations have gotten ahead of themselves. we are seeing the nasdaq start to perform on a number of risk off days. wondering how much we are relying on tech to continue to lead the charge upward from here in order for u.s. equities to melt up. chris: we think the rally is going to broaden now. we think we are not losing momentum. what we also think is people have taken a ruler, and with
tech companies, growth companies, they have put the ruler down and drew the straight line up. with think that is wrong. we want people to start taking uber-caps andour more mispriced names. eventually you have to have the rest of the economy and the rest of the stocks participate. tom: on a friday, by the dip is in place. how do you know when to buy the dip? where are the dips you step in and buy? tom: we told people in march --chris: we told people in march below 2500. tom: that is not now. jonathan: that's more than a slip. [laughter] chris: it is really hard to call a 1% pullback a dip. tom: thank you. [laughter] chris: we would hope you are fully invested at this point in time. if you are not, this would not be a great time to really start
buying your uber caps and put on a ton of risk at this juncture. we would be a little bit more cautious. we have been saying if we do get that melt up, at some point we want to shift to a more defensive stance to your low vol. fell off their chair in st. louis when you called a 1% pullback a dip. this is where we are. [laughter] jonathan: chris, great to catch up. chris harvey thereof wells fargo. what you just heard from the south side, you'll never hear him talk about a trade that went wrong five months ago, but you will hear them say a trade that went right from five months ago. tom: well, that is the nature of the beast. this is all just vectors. defectors went straight up since time began. it is just amazing how we have removed ourselves from 10% correction, 18% bear market. jonathan: something that slipped under the radar this week, tied
on high-yield five percentage points. i think it is important in credit right now. credit remains really supportive, even with what is happening with the data as we lose momentum, even with the jitters in the equity market. into wednesday, the types post covid, five percentage points. lisa: some exciting we could see record low yields on junk bonds. my question is, are we just worsening our situation on the other cited this pandemic, given the fact that companies are going to come out with much more indebted balance sheets? jonathan: don't you think this is the pain trade in europe for the last decade or so? that the ecb was just buying credit and yields kept coming in, despite the fact that the economy wasn't looking great? lisa: the fed hasn't bought that much corporate debt relative to the rally we have seen. this has been investors piling and. there's a question of whether investors have gotten ahead of what the fed is willing to do. jonathan: we saw this coming out of the euro crisis, with the
with everett takes speech -- with the whatever it takes speech from draghi. coming up on this program, bloomberg chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli on the latest in d.c. tom: he's working friday, really? [laughter] jonathan: give him a rest. from new york, this is bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. goldman sachs has agreed to settle the long-running case involving malaysians when mdv -- malaysia's 1mdb fund. in exchange, malaysia will drop all criminal charges. malaysia has alleged some of the money raised ended up in fraudulent shell companies run by corrupt officials. china struck back. to close the u.s.
consulate in chengdu is in response to the u.s. decision to close the chinese consulate in houston. china says its action is legitimate and necessary response. president trump has given into worries about the coronavirus. he has canceled his floor nominating convention -- his florida nominating convention, the biggest event of his campaign. the president says he didn't want to take any chances. and it is the latest sign that the coronavirus is wreaking havoc in hollywood. disney has canceled the august release of the widely anticipated "mulan," and delayed future star wars and avatar movies by one year. meanwhile, the largest u.s. theater owner amc has delayed its opening until mid-august. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell.
the free world must triumph under this new tyranny. jonathan: secretary mike pompeo on tour, and he keeps swinging and swinging at the chinese come is party. good morning -- the chinese communist party good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in your equity market, one hour and 12 minutes away from the cash open this friday, slightly firmer. down 0.3% on the s&p 500. , $1.1608.r came back yield higher by a single basis point to 0.58%. the focus now on washington, d.c. i got a message from a bloomberg subscriber moments ago, sending me a video of nomar. all you had to say was that he was playing with his baseball glove. tom: i said his batting gloves. jonathan: i didn't understand the hand signals. now i get it. tom: on radio, folks --
jonathan: i didn't want to do this, but we are going to do it. pitchu see the fauci yesterday? tom: it was well done for a virologist. [laughter] jonathan: it was pretty awkward. tom: let me suggest, this is dr. fauci -- we welcome all of you on radio, particularly in boston and washington -- dr. fauci out there with the great symbolism of the pitch. all i can say is it is a lot farther to home plate and the , even zone than you think if you come in from the pitchers mound. we forget how incredibly gifted these pictures are. pitchers are. we bring in kevin cirilli, our chief nationals correspondent. it is great to see come about all of it was in the debris of a republican party in massive
disarray. much of this is out of the secretary of treasury. what kind of friday morning is mr. mnuchin having? kevin: i think from the policy standpoint, yesterday was a significant step forward, that secretary mnuchin was able to get to an agreement with leader mcconnell. they have taken two points that i would add. first and foremost, a tiered approach in terms of targeting economic relief to individuals who need it, in terms of more stimulus in mid-august. the second item is these tax credits for businesses, particularly those who are able to hold onto employees who otherwise might have to be furloughed by the end of the year. tom: you sound like a beltway guy. it is the 23rd or 24th and we get through the weekend. i don't even know what date monday is. come on, kevin. the clock is ticking. kevin: hopefully they can exit
you better than dr. fauci throwing the baseball last night -- they can execute better than dr. fauci throwing the baseball last night. they want to get this done by next friday, but in terms of the conversation with democrats, there likely will be some more political theater. i keep making this comparison, but it bears repeating, this is what washington does best. any time there is a government shutdown, they go right up to the deadline and then kick the can down the road. that could be the situation right now. before the august recess, there doesn't seem to be much urgency to get it done right around then. they could extend and work into recess, and that is something i have heard from lower-level staffers who, quite frankly, are also adjusting plans in preparation that that might happen. jonathan: the president standing there, facing the camera alone, trying to take back control. is this changing the direction of travel?
the polls out in the last one to four hours, biden topping the president in michigan, pennsylvania, minnesota. in florida, the president, 38%. joe biden, 51%. is it making a difference? kevin: it is resetting the palate. i spoke with a senior were republican strategist who advises the reelection campaign. what this source told me was whether it is the president now embracing the use of masks or yesterday announcing that they will have a more pared down convention in florida, that is all an example of the president trying to reset from what has been a very turbulent political past few months for his administration. whether or not it is going to have a long-term effect, we just don't know. but this is a resetting this week for president trump.
lisa: when it is a reset for president trump, does that mean there's going to be more unity or less unity among republicans as they try to come up with some agreement and get reelected themselves? kevin: i think from the standpoint of unity, republicans are just as unified as democrats on economic issues. while the president yesterday backing off of the short from the payroll tax cut, he also essentially is embracing much more government spending than the conservative ideological base of his party would like to see. they have to iron this out, but as they have had to shut down and states have had to look at the data of the influx of cases come up they have come to the realization that more economic stimulus is not just needed. it was needed yesterday. jonathan: in ambassador bolton's book, i think you referred to
secretary mnuchin -- i think he referred to secretary mnuchin as a panda hugger. i think he would not say that about secretary pompeo. what happens going into the weekend? kevin: this is a largely expected move for xi jinping, to close the u.s. consulate in chengdu. it could have been more significant if they had close to consulate in hong kong, but from a back-and-forth perspective, what happened with the u.s. deciding to close the consulate in houston, this was a back-and-forth. yesterday, pompeo delivering a blistering critique of u.s.-china relations over the last 50 years at president nixon's presence will library. remember that historic trip that president nixon took in 1962, trying to suggest that engaging china what allow them to move into democratic way of thinking
and cultural thinking. secretary pompeo continuing as he has for more than a year in saying that that has been a colossal failure, and that a new type of dealing with china is needed. jonathan: kevin, great to catch up. enjoy the weekend. kevin called it blistering. here are the words from secretary pompeo. destined toisn't tyrannize inside and outside china forever unless we allow it." there is a message they are not just for the chinese communist party. it is for allies. i just wonder whether it is too late. tom: as you mentioned earlier, the tour of the secretary, the profound imagery of him giving this speech esther day at the nixon library is really, i just can't say enough about the symbolism of that. jonathan: good morning to you while. equity futures rebounding from this morning's losses.
jonathan: from new york state, this is bloomberg surveillance. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down .33%. the underperformance is coming from the nasdaq. negative followthrough from big tex. in the bond market, yields higher by a single basis points. the euro, better pmi out of the euro zone. are we expecting a similar theme in the united states? the answer to that is not right now. a shift in the last several weeks, where economists are starting to look for a loss of momentum in the data. in the high-frequency stuff, we sought in jobless claims, will we see it in the payrolls report?
tom: what we will do right now -- usually betsey stevenson darkens the door on jobs day and we're worried about what happens at 8:30. we can speak to one of our leading policy analyst, betsey stevenson writing for bloomberg opinion and her work formerly with the department of labor. good morning. on thes direct questions immediacy of where we are. i want to go to your twitter feed.
broadly and we always frame this as just the problem of the person experiencing it. if we frame is a broader problem for the economy, surely the collective will will be there to do something about it. the u.s. -- lisa: the u.s. census has released a survey saying more than 4 million americans were not in work over the last month because they had a child not in school. on the others of that, we have childcare centers closing in a quick rate because they cannot stay in business because they cannot care for people's children. what are you hoping to see to bridge this gap and how big of a hit could it be on the economy if we do not have something to remedy the situation. dr. stevenson: the permanent closures are the things i most worried about because we will not reopen. we will not get a vaccine and a brand-new childcare center pops open. we have to keep the businesses going. we need to make sure we are helping them with the investment they need for their infrastructure to make childcare safe during the pandemic, then we will have to make sure those parents are not at work because they are staying home with the kid have a way to get back into the labor market. our labor market -- you think about the labor market as a highway, we have lots of off ramps for parents, particular
women come and we do not have many on ramps. we will have to be hitting this from every front, subsidizing childcare like crazy and helping the parents get back to work and making sure the kids are getting the early childhood education. we often start talking directly about who needs childcare in september versus who does not. i hear a lot of talk about what should open and what should not. we are not prioritizing the kids and families who need it most it is time for us to start prioritizing. we will not be able to do it for everybody. let's figure out who will be hurt the most. jonathan: is not clear the collective will in washington to address these issues is not there. another huge issue, the enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire. thehere any evidence enhanced benefits being offered are holding back labor supply? dr. stevenson: i do not think
that is the right question. we have a glut of labor supply. we have a bunch of people who want jobs who cannot get them. if you create a disincentive for some people to take the jobs, that makes it easier for people who want them to take them. we do not have any evidence these advanced benefits are changing the number of people employed. that is the real question. i do not think if we continue to offer enhanced benefits, with unemployment as high as it is, with permanent layoffs happening every single day, i do not think our problem is we are paying the unemployed too much. paying the unemployed is what is keeping the economy going because that is what is keeping demand stimulated enough to keep food on people's tables. lifthan: it gave a massive to consumption. betsey, the job number on wall street is getting so difficult to read.
continuing claims suggested might be ok. initial jobless claims suggest a stall. the high frequency says things are not great. how do you view things? dr. stevenson: i think the claims data has been hard to interpret. they did not predict the last jobs report and i do not think they will necessarily tell us about this one. what i have seen his ongoing permanent layoffs. these are not businesses temporarily shutting down saying we have to stay safer a month, these are businesses looking ahead at the revenue stream and saying i cannot afford this payroll over the next year. they are letting people go with no intention of bringing them back. layoffs, permanent these are the people who have a much harder time finding work again and that is what i worry the most about. if you look back to what the reference week was, we are talking about a jobs report, we are talking about the week that included july 12. i thought a lot during the week
what is going on the week, and what i saw was new shutdowns in the southwest, and i did not see a lot of new reopening spirit companies that were going to reopen, it had mostly happened by june. i think we will see a negative number. i do not think it will be a big negative number, but i do not think we will see enough people brought back from temporary layoffs to offset the large numbers of people being permanently laid off right now. lisa: this raises a really important question. is this a deceleration of the recovery or is this a reversal? is this a double-dip? what you're talking about is the scope of the second order of layoffs enough to throw us into a double-dip recession? dr. stevenson: i do not think of this is a double-dip recession. the data is confusing because temporary layoffs are not a real
recession. the real recession comes when andle stop spending money we need to shed businesses, we need to shed workers because we are not earning enough money in. i do not think we have fully seen the scope of our current recession. what concerns me the most is i have not seen any real recovery. what i saw was some businesses trying to reopen. those businesses that reopened seem to not be thriving. i do not think that is necessarily a double-dip, but i do not think we are at the bottom. tom: professor, one final question. lisa from new york emails in and professorou ask the about the impact of tiktok on america? myself feeln: i like sarah cooper on tiktok my children do seem to like it.
i am no expert in media consumption for children. jonathan: i think you just revealed your politics for people who do not know already. betsey stevenson of bloomberg. data for a couple of weeks time. we saw that stall. the estimate now 1.9 million. we have very few contributors to that medium estimate. , -500,000.tom koster that was his estimate july 23. tom: i am fascinated the conversation you and i will have on monday. i cannot imagine what the different houses will do to recalibrate as we go to august 7. it is the hardest call i've ever seen. jonathan: one of the more complex payrolls call in quite a wild pure lisa: it is not the actual number, it is the idea of
permanent layoffs that will not come back so easily and the wage tier. initially it was the lower wage jobs getting cut, now we are seeing the higher wage jobs. this goes to the concept of what does business look like on the other side of the pandemic? jonathan: the phrase we hate. right sizing the business. it makes it sound good. it is not. it is firings. it is permanent layoffs. tom: our editor-in-chief was great about this years ago. it is called firings. i do not know which way that will cut your certainly the airlines -- which way that will cut your certainly the airlines leading the way. majornder what the businesses will do. jonathan: we are down .4% on the s&p 500. underperforming since a
massive day on monday. negative follow-through for nasdaq futures. in the fx market, euro-dollar enjoying a 1.1614. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first -- karina: with the first word news, i am karina mitchell. there's a settlement in the case involving goldman sachs and malaysia's wealth fund. malaysia would drop criminal charges in exchange for $3.9 billion in reparations. meanwhile china threatened to retaliate for the u.s. closing its consulate in houston and now it has done so. the u.s. has been told to shut its consulate in a south city. it is a key u.s. post for developments. beijing says the move is a legitimate and necessary response to u.s. actions. it is getting more difficult to
get a clear picture of the coronavirus pandemic in the u.s. the problem is testing shortcomings. health officials warned new infections may be significantly undercounted. cases may benew reported each day, the reality is around 200,000. resorts in the caribbean are reopening to tourism but not americans. tropical vacation spots are giving americans the cold shoulder. authorities are afraid they will spread the coronavirus. the bahamas will begin barring commercial flights in passenger ships from the u.s.. there is a new convert to the ranks of the five richest people in the world. it is the chairman of india's reliance industries. according to the bloomberg billionaires index, he has a net worth of $77.4 billion. the stock is up 135% since
integrity about meeting the needs of the american people, defeating the virus as we honor our heroes and put money into the pockets of the american people. jonathan: nancy pelosi. we predicted it. the tensions between democrats and republicans trying to pass the next stimulus bill. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. i will step away getting ready to count you down to the opening bell. looking forward to catching up with mohamed el-erian. tom: it'll be interesting to talk about the game theory of the moment on many different levels. this is a joy. dash are people that through the government and people that do government. has spent decades serving the united states of america on the side of treasury. he is the guy who gets the fancy people ready for the big
meetings, providing international policy and international financial policy. we are thrilled mark sobel could join us this morning. there are so many different ways to go. i want to talk to you about the permanence of our foreign policy given the new unrest in washington with deficits. are we going to have a changed policy? mark: thank you. i am definitely honored to be here. i think november will be very whether weo seeing stay on a more bilateral track or a more multilateral in our outward orientation and building alliances to achieve our objectives, which clearly is going to be needed if the
world's economic power is more diffuse throughout various continents. upset and the the unrest. you are our one voice over spanning decades of how we speak to the rest of the world on combined financial and political matters. how do we show up at the next g7 , g8, g9, g20 meeting? what will be our strategy? know, i am somebody who spent my life working on finance issues, not so much in the leader track. side,k on the finance people have much in common, they know how to talk to each other. i think the central bankers work closely together. i think the central bank response to the crisis has been
outstanding. i give them credit. on the fiscal side, you saw the united states, we always see gridlock and yet we managed to come up with three bills so far. another bill is absolutely essential. germany of and in its restrictive fiscal policies. abandoned-- germany its restrictive fiscal policies. there are national responses. more national than we had in the global financial crisis. one argument i is always made is emerging markets do not have the safety backups we have, they do not have huge government debt markets. i think we need to work harder with the imf and the world bank to tackle some of the debt issues these countries will face . tourism revenues, remittances, huge economic hit, while they
need to spend more on health and the like. we need to step up support. the key g20 initiative this time has been the debt service suspension initiative. it has been disappointing. lisa: that is exactly where we wanted to go. given your experience with the international monetary fund and the reluctance in the developed world to give to the font to cut the total debt load for emerging markets, how important is it for the global recovery, for developed markets to recover, for the emerging world to get its feet together and get a sense they do have a backstop amid a deteriorating situation? is howne key factor developed countries perform and to what extent can they take off? that will be key. another issue is providing
financial assistance to these countries. debt service suspension is one way. interestingly enough, that is only for low income countries. emerging markets, the same logic applies to them. there does not seem to be anything in place there. i think the crisis will push a lot of low income countries and emerging markets into severe debt stress through no fault of their own. it will nonetheless be a hit. that will require some creative thinking on how to restructure and deal with debt. question, io tom's inward ande u.s. is being bilateral, the u.s. and china aren't loggerheads, u.s. and china are the world two
biggest economies. china is the biggest official bilateral creditor. how can the u.s. and china work realm inand no other the economic and financial area to provide global leadership so we can tackle some of these challenges? tom: too short a visit. we will have to do this again soon. thank you so much. great re-appreciated. -- greatly appreciate it. lisa, i want to go back to what you said. the bond market acting quite odd this week. do we buy the dip in high-yield bonds? lisa: by the dip? you're talking about a two basis point move upward in yield as being a dip? this is barely a dip. we do have investors saying there is an incredible opportunity because spreads can contract more given the fed backstop. i wonder, especially if we see
this decelerating in economy going into a deepening recession , all of a sudden there is not just liquidity risk, you have a solvency risk and it is increasing for companies that had no revenue and yes they have plenty of debt. there's only so long you can keep the lights on if you do not have any income. i am glad you mentioned greg peters. i thought mr. peters was brilliant in an interview. the other high point was you behave yourself with sam kennedy of the boston red sox. i got no rude yankees garbage. lisa: i cannot help myself. s.go to the met's tom: i know. you do not want to mention that on air. you have a hard line to steve cohen to get those box seats. lisa: we will see who the owner ends up being for the mets at
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our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. we begin with the big issue. the stimulus bill in washington stalling with unemployment benefits expiring and the economy losing momentum mitch mcconnell now aiming for monday. senate majority has assembled a framework for care s 2. the administration has requested additional time to review the fine details, but we will be laying down the proposal early next week. we have an agreement in principle on the shape of the package. jonathan: democratic leader chuck schumer providing pressure to senate republicans, saying "one of the reasons we are up against a cliff is because republicans have gathered. there is no plan." let's catch up with kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief