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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 28, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> markets don't like uncertainty and binary risks which are impossible to hedge. i think buying some treasuries for safe haven makes sense here. >> i don't think we are going backwards. we are going to level off in terms of the recovery. >> i would say we are six months into this. another year and a half, i think we were really start to pull ourselves out of it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. what an interesting tuesday come on the way to a fed meeting
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tomorrow. we will have our fed coverage as usual. then onto an exceptionally busy end of the week. there's no question about it, you wonder where this stimulus debate will be in washington by the end of the week and into the sunday talk shows. jonathan: 98 days until the election, you would think washington, d.c. would get it together. just as the economy starts to roll over, as that recovery starts to plateau, the collective will to do a whole lot more fades. that is the story, and it is always the story you when you exit the immediate crisis, the collective will fades. tom: lawrence kudlow still talking about a v-shaped recovery. i am looking at the 3m and 16%, 20%s, unemployment. where is the recovery? jonathan: as of q3, there's your v. after that you rollover. that is what everyone is
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expecting, even with the reopening. everyone expected that mechanical lift as you go from shut down to reopen pretty much every economist expected it to fade as we got deeper into the summer. the big concern is we are seeing it fade now and we are not seeing enough from what do upset -- thent for the income stoc income shock. this pandemic and this episode is going to go on way into 2021. it will continue to weigh on growth. we will have an extended time below capacity. you need a band-aid from fiscal policy makers, and we keep doing it three months, four months. it is not enough. tom: we bring in now lisa abramowicz after a sabbatical to rejoin us on a tuesday. this firstlways see in the bond market. while you were off on your sabbatical, there were some options. i never talk options, folks. toa: people are looking
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extend their maturities out for the next 20, 30 at&t sold $11 billion in order to push out some of the maturities of debt due in 2040. what i am interested in, going back to the idea of the stimulus debate, you are going to get more targeted stimulus programs going forward around the world as congress members and policymakers lose the momentum, lose the sense of urgency. from an investing standpoint, how much does this lead to increasing default and companies that have relied on the stimulus to stay afloat and will no longer be able to do this going forward? tom: it is going to be fascinating to see. i look for david westin with important conversation, "balance , andwer" at 12:00 noon then onto kevin cirilli. let's jumpstart this discussion with the experience of tobias levkovich at citigroup.
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he knows the granularity, the corporations, and the bigger view at citigroup on the stock market. have you changed your view in the last number of days? tobias: not in the last number of days. we have thought the market was a with someof itself bumps along the way. come back to some degree due to the powell put. the bond market is actually sending two different messages. if you look at the u.s. tenured yield, you would say it is disbelieving in the recovery. but if you look at the 10 year breakevens, they continue to move higher. are you seeing that in the equity space? i'm looking at revenue shortfalls at 3m, at mcdonald's. are you just taking that into your 2021 cake? tobias: we are. we are looking for earnings this
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and 150the 125 range, next year. institutions suggested that 75% that 164 is too high. are carrying. they are jumping and even if they don't necessarily like it, but they feel they have to be in it to win it. jonathan: what do you think of the argument that because we have narrow brent, this is a fragile rally? tobias: not entirely. there are some large cap tech names clearly leading the market in the sense that people what that secular growth with bulletproof balance sheet's and free cash flow generation. but for example, the second quarter, 126 names in the 500 beat the s&p 500 by more than 10%. missed and what i would
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call the narrative out there. tom: big tech earnings jonathan: jonathan: -- big tech earnings this thursday. . big tech earnings this thursday. work fromthink the home construct has generated some business trends that have really accelerated trends that -- thatng before area were going before. the online versus in-store shopping trend was going for years, but we have accelerated it area all of these things were already very much moving along. all we have really done is supercharge the speed. lisa: one of the big stories has been the weaker dollar versus its competitor currencies area since 2018, how does this factor into your strategy? tobias: it is actually quite important. if i look at budget deficits as a percent of gdp, it is a pretty
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good indicator for many years now. suggesting dollar weakness already, prior even to the pandemic. people ran for the safety of treasuries believing they would have significant support systems . as we were starting to reopen the economy, even with these awful bumps in terms of outbreaks, it is unlikely we are going to shut down the economy the same way we did arch, april and may. . to be expensive from economic it is -- it is too expensive from an economic perspective area it is unlikely you will see that kind of shutdown. you may see sporadic ones or regionally focused ones, but not entire countries. in that sense, you are looking at an environment where the dollar doesn't have to be a safe haven. when that pulls back, historically emerging markets outperform the u.s.
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historically, certain groups, even they have large international sales, actually don't do as well. there are other ones that do particularly well that are commodity oriented. aspects to the dollar that are quite important. lisa: is this the playbook you are going to come of the idea that we have a weaker dollar going forward given the parameters that you just laid out come of the people should be going into emerging markets and staying away from the multinationals? tobias: not necessarily. semiconductors, pharma. they are multinational. they have large exposure to international sales, but they do poorly when the dollar weakens, which is not consistent with the intuitive development of what it does. you will actually translate to higher revenues in the u.s.
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everyone is entitled to their misperceptions, but we actually look at how stocks trade. tom: your thoughts on the big banks? they are an area that investors have disliked for a while yet initially it was the shape of the yield curve, concerns about credit loss visions, but they are willing to trade up some other cyclicals around that area we wonder if this will lead to more disturbing and investor mindsets area may be the concern in trends turns more toward fintech area i think the stoxx themselves look area attractive lee valued right now on the back. there still is business activity out there. areit card businesses generally doing well.
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it is kind of hard to get a sense that things are awful in banks. there's some concern about the elections maybe, the democrats taking the senate as well as the white house, and maybe there will be some more bank bashing. but these are more speculation than anything real at this point. jonathan: great to catch up with you. tobias levkovich of citi. getting some headlines from chuck schumer, saying, "eva chin protection is not part of the "eviction ran -- protection is not part of the gop plan. we are pretty far apart on stimulus talks." that spread between democrats and republicans, it is about $2 trillion. we talked about the size issue. you can find an agreement on size, but if you are really battling on concepts and philosophical ideas, it means we have got some hard to do. tom: it is like shared values
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tuesday, where they all play off of each other in the media. i am really wondering where are we a day and a half from now, with the fed meeting at all of that? jonathan: i agree, it is the blame game. you will see the democrats go to democrat tv, republicans go to republican tv, and each blame each other. critical of democrats dragging their feet. in this moment, we have had months to calibrate the appropriate response to this and put the details together, and republicans drag their feet, and it does not look good down in washington. tom: we are trying to do it like brexit. jonathan: well, let me give you some serious advice. take no clues from the brexit debate on how to formulate a lessee in washington -- how to formulate policy in washington. it is ridiculous, and you know it is. tom: it is the election season. jonathan: is this good politics
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for anyone? it gets your constituency up. senator cruz in texas has a constituency. he is speaking to it. jonathan: coming up, chris uger of cowen. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm british. the battle is on over what the next coronavirus stimulus relief bill will look ash i medical -- i'm riddick -- i'm ritika gupta. nextattle is on a variety coronavirus stimulus release bill will look like. the coronavirus is reaching a plateau and some of the hardest hit u.s. states as health officials impose measures like closing bars and requiring masks. florida reported that he was new
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cases in almost three weeks. texas had the lowest total in two weeks. now states wonder whether they can keep infection rates down until a vaccine arrives. china is buying american imports, but not enough to hit deal,rms of the trade based on cap relations from chinese customs data. ofna has bought about 23% the purchase targets for 2020. purchases of farm products have stepped up the last two months. nissan has issued an outlook for a bigger than expected loss for the fiscal year. post $4.5 billion in operating losses, and also plan to skip its operating dividend -- to skip its dividend. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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sen. schumer: senate republicans have presented us with a halfhearted, half-baked proposal. the republican plan is to
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little, too late. the republican plan is weak when our problems need a much stronger brew. jonathan: the words of u.s. senate minority leader chuck schumer in washington, d.c. that's where the focus is right now. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. from new york, one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell, here is your price action. equities shaping up as follows, down by 0.4% on the s&p 500. yields come in its ingle basis point to 0.61%. down 0.3%. the drama is down in washington right now. some calm on wall street. the expectation is still that they get this done, and this was in evitable, that these two sides would clash at some point. we are seeing that play out big time this morning. tom: the stimulus is going to be many trillions of dollars. there will also be a lot of detail.
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cowen,rueger is at and he has a reputation for exquisite layout of the detailed. i am sure he will do it again in august. chris, what is the detail your most focused on as we stagger to some kind of agreement? chris: good morning. thanks for having back. i think the big question here, the crux of this phase for bill is going to be the expiring $600 weekly uninsurance payments each ended this weekend. the house democrats want to extend that for six months at $600. the republican plan from last night would take that $600 down to $200 through september, and then basically kick it to the states for the states to figure out how to cap edit 70% of previous wages. i think there's no real surprise from the bid ask where we are.
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the house democrats put up over $3 trillion over two months ago, and i think it will be one of ,he great political what-ifs why president trump and the republicans didn't embrace a $3 trillion stimulus two months ago, whereas now we are steering off a fiscal cliff for over 20 million americans and we are probably somewhere in the 1,000,000,000,002 $1.5 trillion -- the $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion ballpark. lisa: is there any argument you think is legitimate against having a $600 unemployment benefit continue for the next couple of months? chris: the real pushback has been from a number of white house advisors and senate republicans. phase three in march almost all apart over the $600 weekly
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supplemental. various studies have shown that as much as five out of six folks raisetting effectively a from their previous salary from january. this is really the key controversy with the bill. republicans will get the liability shield. democrats will get some chunk of money to go to states and municipalities. the $600 unemployment fiscal cliff is the real question. jonathan: is an interim bill at this point dead on arrival? do you see any prospects for that down in washington? chris: it could happen, the old saying is whenever washington finds itself on the edge of a fiscal cliff, they tend to build or land. so perhaps doing an extension of the $600 weekly payments may be through september, because he
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will have another cliff when the fiscal year begins on october 1. you will have to pass some kind of bill to keep the government from shutting down, so maybe tying it to that, but that is going to come under intense pressure from a number of fiscal hawks who have all of the sudden returned to washington after two years of hibernation. jonathan: how does being a fiscal hawk poll right now in america among some of these constituencies? i think itk --chris: is going to be one of the great political what-ifs on that package over $3 trillion that the house democrats sponsored and passed over two months ago. i think it is quite regional. candidly, the senate republicans who are most vocal on this are not running for reelection.
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they have staggered terms. so that maybe answers your question. want to double down on this idea of what political benefit is there to going against some sort of big fiscal stimulus. at this point, how is the idea of ongoing enhanced unemployment benefit: among republicans -- benefit polling among repo begins? -- among republicans? chris: there is a real belief among senate republicans that this extension of the $600 is keeping the economy back, meaning that people would rather stay-at-home and collect the $600 on top of their state payments as opposed to going back into the workforce and looking for jobs. tom: what are you going to look for today, in the next 24 hours in washington? the whole cable media frenzy, the newspaper frenzy, etc., what
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is chris krueger most focused on? chris: it is a bit of a crazed week here. you have the ongoing funeral of the late john lewis, the big tech hearing tomorrow. you have the fed as well. i don't expect much on phase four today. the primary negotiators are pretty much the same from phase three, with the exception of now mark meadows, the white house chief of staff, is sort of a cohead with the treasury secretary. but then the actor we have seen before, mcconnell, pelosi, schumer. so at some point, i suspect we will have a meeting at the white house which will probably productively go sideways. you want to keep those five folks in a room injecting the president into these talks. we have seen that the last couple of times, and inevitably
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it causes a negative tape. that could also be a positive. we will see how it unfolds. i would say that this has a lack of urgency that the previous negotiations had, and i think some of that is because we are not opening limit down every morning anymore. jonathan: we need to market to do the hard work. it is depressing. chris, thank you, sir. tom, it is depressing because it is kind of true. it is just absolutely pathetic. the only thing holding this labor market back right now is the pandemic. if you and i wanted to go for a meal friday night like we used to, go inside a restaurant with the air-conditioning, guess what? we can't. it is the virus holding back the labor market, not the $600 enhanced and implement benefits. thathilosophical argument the economy is constrained when large pipes of it that's large
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parts of it or not reopening, that is not the enhanced unappointed benefit. that is the pandemic. tom: we will see on august 7, the jobs report. jonathan: coming up, lara rhame, fs investments chief u.s. economist. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ save hundreds on your wireless bill
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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour away from the cash open. shaping up as follows. equity futures bouncing off the lows. we have seen euro strength, a lot of it over the last couple of weeks through much of this month. some weakness this morning. euro-dollar back to 1.1722. we had salve on treasury yields. yield on the 10 year. you mentioned that payrolls report. i wonder how many people realize that payrolls report comes just as congress breaks up for recess once again. tom: you wonder if there'll be a vote.
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my basic take is they will probably delay it until the end. lara rhame knows that. she is at fs investments. we will recalibrate off of a strong note. do we see a lift off. give us an update. do you see a q3 left off? lara: i think we have achieved lived off. the real problem is traction. that is what we have lost in july. we all knew that the pandemic could cause reopening and the reactivation of the economy to be setback, but we are seeing now. it is painful. talked to charles earlier from philadelphia. he looked for inflation. it did not happen. 2020we have the staggering
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and 2021 with uncommonly low inflation? lara: there is no doubt this is a big inflationary pulse hitting the economy. we have a lot of people on the fed. i think the big news -- jonathan: a bit of a connection problem. hold on one second as we try to reestablish that. is: i think what lara talking about is important with inflation backdrop. the fed is considered to formalize an approach that has been shaping up last 12 months. their tolerance for higher inflation is a lot higher. do they formalize that with an average inflation target which would live the overall inflation target, or is that why we are starting to see inflation expectations pickup, or is that also playing a role in the big move we have seen in the gold price? tom: i would go to j.p. morgan's
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note. i thought michael feroli -- everyone would see the high-frequency and the less than high-frequency data. we are starving for data as lara rhame was talking about. we are starving for discovery of what this unique economy looks like. jonathan: let's head back to lara. we have reestablish the connection. the tolerance for higher inflation. do you expect that to be formalize this week or in september? lara: no. in september is when it will be formalized. the fed is clearly laying the groundwork for keeping it low for a long time. you and i will hopefully be here in two years talking about interest rates still at historic lows. when we are talking about inflation, this review of the framework is important because they are trying to integrate framework for inflation credibility when we are facing a
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huge deflationary impulse. that is where they are trying to cling to this credibility and cement that credibility at a time when we are facing the opposite problem. jonathan: we will wrap up the problem. lara rhame, fs investments chief economist. onking ahead to all of this wednesday. it'll be the conversation in the news conference with chairman powell. the next moves on forward guidance. every economist you speak to on wall street thinks this meeting is too early to make any announcement on forward guidance and any big moves. tom: totally agree. it is about a lack of data. in the years we've been doing this, the dearth of data, we need fresh data to tell us what is going on. what i see is the anecdotal stuff from people on the ground. hogle, the lieutenant governor was great. they are not talking 9% or 10%
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unemployment, they are talking high double-digit unemployment. lisa: is catastrophic. you go state by state and city by city and look around, there are empty office hours all over the place. there was a story in the new york times about what will happen to the economic ecosystem in some of the cities. the unemployment rate, you talk about a deflationary shock on so many levels. how do you offset that? tom: this is one of the great unifying features in that the same thing has happened in england. the prime minister is trying to rekindle the economies of the united kingdom. jonathan: lisa's points on cities stands. many people reflect on this as a great acceleration. it is not about how the pandemic has change the direction of travel, it is about how it has accelerated it. how many people do we know who only coming to the office once, twice, maybe never a week. loads of people.
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now we are making that transition. the management team to have held out from allowing people to do that have been forced into making that decision. it will be difficult to get those people to come back five times a week. to lisa's point on the city economy, it will completely transform it. we have already seen it with tower blocks in the united states in midtown manhattan. the rents were the premium where people want to live close to the office, now they do not have to. tom: this goes to the headline of 20 minutes ago. he is pointing out the eviction debate and the eviction debate and the lack of rent goes right into the landlord debate. there has been some discussion. there has been a discussion about the collapse of real estate and how that sequences. to me the major thing is the calendar. the calendar and stimulus, yes. the real calendar is march, and we were focused on may. jonathan: that it become august.
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the companies are not waiting. you saw google, 2021. tom: we are not out a couple months. i do not see that, except maybe the red sox are out a couple months trying to get ready. jonathan: you are looking ahead to 2022 when the red sox get it together again. -- what the situation we have witnessed his company starting to make permanent long-term decisions. we have talked about these two phases in a crisis. phase one is survival. phase two is when you look around and you make long-term permanent decisions and we are starting to see them pile up over last couple of weeks. there is a permanency, and for a long time we consider this a temporary event. it will take a while to get out of the mess. lisa: a lot of people are looking at the federal reserve and the stimulus package. there is a big question about whether we may see a negative number for the jobs data for the month of july.
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this is what betsy stephenson of university of michigan was saying last week. she is expecting us to have a net loss in jobs over july due to to the resurgence of the virus and the re-shuttering of the businesses and tourist industries and restaurants and retailers, but also the permanent changes. jonathan: let's bring in michael mckee and talk about the jobs report in august. i think this has to be the most unpredictable payrolls report in a while. what are you reading at the moment? michael: the latest data suggests we are going to see some job losses. not only do we see the jobless claims numbers rising, but the census bureau has been conducting a survey of the labor -- we, and it has shown are also seeing slowdowns and many of the other alternative indicators that we watch. it does appear the economy has stalled, and that would -- the
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fed knows this. they are following the same data. i am not sure it will have the same impact on them, but it would land in a thud in washington. tom: what is the angle you're looking for this time around? michael: we do not expect the fed to change any policy but they might hint they are going to. there is a feeling they will do something in the area of forward guidance, either in this meeting or september. jay powell and the fed may come out and say we will tied to a state-dependent as opposed to date dependent. where the economy is or where unemployment or inflation is before they would raise rates. the only question is when they would announce that and if he is going to hint at it on wednesday or whether they will come out and say something. no policy change for a long time.
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the other aspect is i'm sure he will be asked what happens if they do not come up with a deal in washington. what happens to the economy? we will see how strong he wants to be. lisa: as we talk about the permanent job losses and how much salaries are going down as people cut wages in addition to cutting staff, how much are we seeing that? michael: we saw a lot of it when people lost their jobs at the lower end, that is where the impact has been. the people who make the least are hurting the most. those who are able to work from home or have gone back into the office have pretty much maintain their salaries. there is a theory that over the longer run if you're working from home, maybe they do not have to pay u.s. much, particularly if you're working from a remote home, and we all know people in this business working out the hamptons. jonathan: do not say this too loudly. what are you up to? michael: that might change over the longer run but that is a more socioeconomic study.
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at this point it is how you get money to the people who need it at the bottom end who have lost their income or seen their hours cut way back. jonathan: always great to catch up with you. looking forward to the payrolls report in a couple of weeks. i think it is so unpredictable and what we are seeing in this market given the amount of churn underneath the headline numbers in the labor market. tom: i will go to high-frequency data. it has never been more important than now. you saw planes reverse last thursday. to see that when we cap, two weeks out. no one has priced that in. let's give you a look at the price action. equity futures lower by 11 points. that bid picks up in the treasury market. south, .6%. the u.s. 10 year on the back foot just a little bit, down .4
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percent. gold lower. euro-dollar back to 1.1732. up next on the fx market, adam cole of rbc. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. mitch mcconnell -- his new coronavirus relief proposal. the number of senate republicans are opposed to the $1 trillion reducinghat calls for enhanced on employment benefits and sending $1200 checks to most americans. nancy pelosi called the republican plan pathetic. still she said she will try to find common ground. a combative hearing when attorney general william barr testifies before the democratic-controlled house judiciary committee. in a prepared statement, william barr says the president has not try to in justice department business. it will also argue the president was the victim of wrongdoing by the obama administration and by anti-trump forces on the fbi.
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it is an unusual restriction for presidential campaign. joe biden staff has been forbidden from trading individual stocks without the approval of the campaign's counsel. that is according to email obtained by news. new york state health officials will investigate a hamptons byrity concert opened goldman sachs ceo david solomon. solomon performed as a dj. andrew cuomo said he was appalled by what he called egregious social distancing violations seen in videos of the event. trump is playing defense in areas a republican incumbent should be able to count on. he is bending advertising money to spend -- to states he won in 2016. advertising is going to those once friendly states. joe biden is hoping to flip those to the democratic side. global news 24 hours a day, on
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air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> right now there is a collapse in business investment. not only is that bad today, but it sets the tone going on into the future.
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if you have a continued business collapse in investment, you will never get employment back up to where we were pre-covid. jonathan: catherine mann of citi weighing in on this economy. the interview coming up the next hour of bloomberg tv. looking up to catching up with libby cantrill, pimco public policy had on bloomberg tv with the countdown to the open. tom: you will probably have some good quotes already from the politicians. i am sure many others including republicans will be coming on the damage done last night and the story moving forward into tuesday, wednesday, and thursday. part of that is the global litmus paper of the system. marketse of rbc capital rights a hyper detailed note on many currencies. we get a nice overview from mr. cole. let's start with the u.s. dollar. i get the idea it is technically
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breaking down, but boy is there a pitched battle about dollar resiliency and finally tradable dollar weakness. which is it? adam: if you look at our expectations in dollar index terms, than the dollar goes down. i would hesitate characterizing that is a tremendously dollar bearish call on our part. it is a reflection of the fact that you have a series of idiosyncratic stories and other currencies pushing them up, most specifically the yen, to a lesser degree the euro. the dollar is default on the others of that. not that we have a concern on the policy outlook in the u.s.. we are less worried about imbalances in the u.s. than we are in other economies. it is the dollar losing as a default position on the side of a couple of relative trend stories. tom: we have to revisit your yen
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call. very strong yen. give us a call from this new 106 to 105 level and why the yen strengthens. dollar-yenam: i had at 95 at the end of the year. what that reflects his dollar-yen has been a range bound story for the last four months. what i think you see is to investment investors in japan are selling dollar-yen and investors outside japan are buying dollar-yen. flow going forward is the domestic flow from japan, where investors are increasingly putting hedges onto their foreign investment positions because it costs almost nothing do that. that flow endures when you get those shoots in hedging behavior in japan, they tend to go on for
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several quarters. they tend to persist. the flow on the part of outside japan is much more fleeting. as we break out of that range as we appear to be doing now, the flow endures is a persistent selling from within japan
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assets. that will generate euro positive flow. it is not as compelling a story as it is in the yen, but our bias is euro-dollar goes little higher from here. tom: adam cole, greatly appreciated. we will move it into the hour where we are headed. where we are headed is jonathan ferro and the open on bloomberg television. i will be with paul sweeney on bloomberg radio. lots of talk around this nascent discussion between republicans and democrats over phase four or five or is it six? lisa: it will be. that is where we are headed, round after round. republicans broken up into many different bills gives you a sense of how much agreement there is in the republican party. tom: i do not know if anyone actually reads the documents. maybe kevin cirilli is the only one who does. there it is, subject to amendment as they say. what you see in the bond market? i see a bond market with full
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faith and credit actually stable. lisa: one thing i find interesting is the idea at&t sold $11 billion of debt yesterday, trying to push out the maturities for decades to,. if you look at the amount of corporate debt maturing in 15 or more years, that has almost doubled in the past five years to more than $2 trillion with yields going to record lows. if you have the capability as a big company to push out your return for another two decades at low borrowing costs, why not do it? they all are. tom: i am bringing up the apple paper. you can do this on the bloomberg pretty easily. i can scroll through and look for that apple piece of year and a half ago that was issued swiss francs. i do not think it is a negative yield, but it is right there as well. the testimony of mr. cook and technology. that is tomorrow in washington. incredible washington calendar.
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one of the themes of our david westin with professor summers, former treasury secretary. they will have a few things to speak about. futures at -11. stay with us. this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪
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♪ from new york city for
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our viewers worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. with 30 minutes until the opening bell, good morning. equity futures down eight on the s&p 500. republican leadership unveiling a $1 trillion stimulus plan widely considered to be dead on arrival. looking to negotiate with themselves and democrats simultaneously. mitch mcconnell making his move. mcconnell: we have one move in the pandemic and one move in the recovery. the american people need more help. comprehensive,be and they needed to be carefully tailored to this crossroads. senate what this majority has assembled. jonathan: as for that senate majority, we are already seeing signs of a fracture majority. ted cruz telling reporters there is significant resistance

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