tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg October 19, 2020 10:00pm-12:00am EDT
ma's group said it has won the green light in the hong kong exchange, it could be the biggest share sale in history. indy is to sweeten the sale terms of a struggling flag carrier by allowing buyers to decide how much they're willing to invest. let's look at what's going on with the markets. lower down toving the big five technology companies. the nikkei is down by about .3%. foreigners a lot of have been buying japanese equities. looking at the euro, we've had a bit of strength but that's reflected by move up of about
point 46% overnight. political posturing is taking place with -- taking place between london and brussels. checking in with some of the other little asset -- of the other asset classes. gold pulling back in tandem with , .10% lower. tom: let's get you the first word news and an update on the continued spread of covid-19. have surged past 40 million and show no signs of slowing. u.s. infection rates rising in 48 states while europe is inosing tighter restrictions london, paris, and other cities under strict curves with ireland enacting some of the toughest restrictions yet seen. the world health organization says failure to control
quarantine rules has led to the resurgence. i stocks hit a six month low amid fears continuing street protests will drive investors away and further hurt the weakening economy. the benchmark index closed at its lowest level since april 16 as demonstrators bow to keep up pressure for constitutional reform and curbs on the monarchy. the index has lost more than 5% of its value since protesters took to the streets of bangkok. u.k. rejected a move by the european union to revise stalled brexit talks, saying there is no basis for resumption without compromise. brussels said it is prepared to intensify work on the final agreement. demanded a more fundamental change of approach from the e.u.. boris johnson has warned an accord is unlikely and says the u.k. should prepare for no deal split.
president trump's reelection campaign is taking on the debate commission ahead of its face-off with joe later this week. ruleenging the essential changes, among which is the muting of microphones to prevent interruption. the president campaign manager says the commissions pro biden antics have turned debate season into a fiasco. those were the first word headlines. talk -- top democrats walking a tight rope. kathleen hays is here with the latest. nancy pelosi's deadline for later tuesday. is it a case of the talks being the darkest before the dawn? kathleen: it's definitely bleak.
many saying there's no way to get a deal passed before the election if a deal is passed at all. treasury secretary mnuchin and how speaker pelosi did talk on the phone, they can't get past some key sticking points, and let's put that right upfront payment let's remind everybody, what is the big deal? beside the fact that the democrats packages 2.2 trillion dollars and the republicans broadly don't want anything above $1 trillion, if that. a two state and local governments, that's about a half billion dollars. republican saying you have to backup the municipalities, though states and governors offices so they don't have to lay people off. republican say there's already enough there. they want to bailout pension plans in some states, so that the big deal. tax credits for lower income families, democrats think they need more and republican sink there is already enough there. liability protection for businesses is something
republicans have been pushing for hard since the whole thing started. they want protection for companies to not be sued because workers were in the office flipping hamburgers, whatever they were doing, because to --ise it's going democrat satan makes it too hard for any worker to prove negligence and pushback against these thoughtless employers. beyond that, the repeal of the tax credit for business losses, this is a little more complicated. it has to do with changing the law that is in place in 2017, the democrats want to get rid of this, that allows the companies or any individual to take the tax losses in one year and use them to offset taxes in another year. republican say we just can't do that, in many accounts agree it would give wealthy people a break.
on the other hand, a lot of wealthy people lost money in the pandemic, too. pelosi says they continue to narrow their differences. mark meadows, white house chief of staff said again, nancy pelosi must be reasonable so president trump can be reasonable and then they can agree to the finish line. tom: you talked about the fact sparse. chances look what can we expect in terms of what happens two-state u.s. time? are they able to lay a foundation for future potential deal? in two weeks come the political winds may change so greatly that if you don't get something done now, who knows what's going to happen? for sure people so it may be february or march if joe biden becomes president and president trump is not reelected. a lot of people say people can't
wait that long. saying president trump the politics are important here, particularly for nancy pelosi. he said nancy pelosi at this moment does not want to do anything to affect the election, meaning getting joe biden to the white house, and i think it will affect the election negatively for her. a lot of people are saying pass that bill in the house, move it onto the senate and put the ball in mitch mcconnell's court. let the republicans voted down and see what their political fallout is. meanwhile, mitch mcconnell and most republicans are backing only a limited spending, they have a more positive view of the economy. o'connell has said most republicans will oppose any virus relief package that is too big. meanwhile, republicans are trying to pass to smaller bills in the next couple of days. one would use leftover money from the paycheck protection program to send out more
stimulus checks, and also their own stimulus bill which is much smaller, maybe $1 trillion at best. trump says, however, that he can get the republicans to get on board with this if nancy pelosi can get on board with steve mnuchin. i think a lot of people think -- republicans are respect -- stressing less confidence in trump than they have in the past. her meadow saying if pelosi and the white house can get an agreement, mitch mcconnell will bring it to the floor. even getting that done and getting a bill to the floor, many people would see a some kind of progress rather than just keeping it tied up in talks. the clock is ticking and people need those checks. that's what most people are saying. tom: just a lot of political posturing at this point come as you say. kathleen hays with the latest on
surprise for short-term rates to drop below zero. , ining us is adam margolis want to start with the u.s. dollar, no surprise there, we just been breaking down stimulus discussion negotiations at continue as a painful spectacle. you had a bearish view on the u.s. dollar for some time. it has played out, you've called it correctly. if you want to be positioning in other part of the g10 space, where do you look? adam: good morning, tom. i think we've been pretty consistent in terms of our bearish stance on the dollar. clearly in the last couple of weeks the market has come around to the view that the rising probability of a blue wave adds more risk to the u.s. dollar outlook. there are couple of bigger picture points that continue to underpin the view. one is the idea that the fed is there will be a
period of low rates for a while. and global growth expectations remaining firm, and that supports our view. we have to acknowledge it is an evolving picture. when we see signs of a second covid wave in europe, inevitably that brings a lot more to weigh risk for the euro. that's one reason we been rotating our focus more recently toward asia in the last few weeks. on the yuan, as you bring looking at highs matching almost 2019 levels if not slightly stronger than 2019 levels. sandere a line in the where the pboc and officials have to step in, or do you think they're comfortable to see it go beyond 6.6, for example?
adam: it's not just an election play, we have seen the yuan rallying strongly post first debate and the trump covid diagnose it -- diagnosis. towardket coming around a blue wave. we think that makes sense on the idea that a biden administration might result in a less combative trade policy, including potentially some relief on tariffs. and don't forget the economy is coming out the back of its strongest quarter since it started trading offshore in 2010. even with this recent gentle reminder that we had last weekend about the changes in reserve rules going forward, that was the reminder that currency appreciation can be a one-way bet. we have to say that what we seen in the last few weeks, or the last few days in terms of the
fixing by the pboc is not necessarily sending in a clear signal to the market about being concerned. general tend to be more worried about unruly moves, so that makes us think that probably the next leg higher in the yuan is likely to be a grind rather than explosive price action we've seen in the last quarter. as a group we continue to be very constructive in china and e.m. asia. tom: you touched on the blue wave, the fact that some making provisions for that. what is the historical guide here for the currency markets and how they interpret some of the election volatility in the closing stages of a race like this? it's a great question, and i think this time may be a little bit different.
in terms of how the market is going to play it. one of the things the market has obviously been worried about is the fear of a contested or delayed election result. interestingly, what we can say is that currency markets are beginning to price out that outcome. we look at currency options market, the size of the moves expected from the day of the election and subsequent days of reducing, i think that is pretty consistent with what some of the .ebsites are suggesting while i would say the market is becoming increasingly confident of this idea with the blue wave, that it would trigger another leg of dollar weakness. when we think back to 2016, that creates a little bit of nervousness in terms of the way people are interpreting the data. tom: that's understandable, given what we saw then. keeping people on their toes.
so do you rotate out of the u.s.? have a look at chinese bonds, the yield premium over those from elsewhere. is that one of the destinations that you give your clients an option to go to? adam: absolutely. that's been a very significant theme across our franchise here in the last two or three months. we think that makes a lot of sense, given the current low level of developed market yield. we continue to see a lot of interest in chinese fixed income. the combination of the carrier advantage and the relatively low level of volatility as part of that story. we think that's a trend that is likely to continue. i think in a global context, or beginning to see interest in china out of places like the
smartphone division. approval for the hong kong leg of the make guild listing following a similar move by china. the green light for the share sale and is now considering approval for the shanghai part of the offering. it's set to be the world's biggest ipo. at pioneereporting natural resources is in talks to buy an energy company as consolidation continues in the oil industry. mexico is said to be discussing around $4 billion. but it does have $3 billion in debt. that's not the only story making headlines as consolidation is
not confined to this one in the energy sector. tom: another mega oil deal is , conocophillips says it is reviewing its strategy after its $9.7 billion takeover of concho resources, making it among the top u.s. oil producers with a reserved space of 23 billion barrels. the ceo told bloomberg about his plans. >> we been talking about the need for consolidation in the business for quite some time. to put it together to offer investors a different way to think about the space. transformative acquisition with concho resources. it brings in a bunch of -- 23 billion barrels into the company.
it's about the assets, it's about the superstar balance sheet managing the volatility we see in the business. it's about how you allocate capital for value, not for growth. it's the distributions were able to give back to the shareholder. it's about the sustainable business. is an energy transition coming for our plant. >> can you give me some insight into how competitive it was? there's only a handful of shell companies worth buying. give me some perspective on that. >> this is putting to super quality companies together to create something that's really special in the space. we said this repeatedly in the it needs to be below our $50 cost threshold. that's the kind of resource that
gives us huge position in the permian basin. it's a great complement to our existing unconventional position. now a super large position in the permian basin along with our position in california. were one of the largest unconventional producers in the business today. about you just talk to me what investors are telling you about this deal and why it makes sense? why would i want to put money to work in your company, given all the headwinds that the sector faces, and how does it change that calculation? >> the shareholder value proposition that we put forward, we're going to grow the top line of the company on 70% of our cash flow. 30% of that will go back to the shareholder.
a growing, stable dividend that we offer, you look at that free cash flow yield with the dividend yield, we think were putting a value proposition out we canhat competes and do that through the cycle because of the strong balance sheet that we have. can't predict what the prices will be, but we know we are investing in low-cost resources and we can be resilient with that. great assets,g great balance sheets together, and that's what makes it different. these are great quality companies coming together to form an even better company going forward. goes --hing that decline rates, basically how quickly the well loses momentum, the lower the better. i'mguys are around 14% if
correct. concho has a higher decline rate. how will you manage it, and how do you think about that? >> that goes to the capital intensity. how much capital do you have to back in? we have one of the lowest decline rates because of our global, diverse portfolio. also with the legacy assets around the world. littlened rates are a below 10% per year. this moves it up to ride at 12% over the next decade. ryan lance speaking to alex get -- alix steel. here's what it looks like in tokyo, reflecting what's happening globally speaking, moved to the downside there. the nikkei to 25, .3% lower even though we have a move to buy japanese equities.
♪ a.m. in hong kong and shanghai. i'm karina mitchell with the first word headlines. sources in washington say democrats and republicans are narrowing their differences on a new stimulus package with nancy pelosi hoping to have an idea on whether a bill might pass on tuesday. she is due to have more talks with steve mnuchin and mitch mcconnell who says the senate may vote in the coming hours. democrats say a sniffing gap remains. the imf says it is more optimistic about growth prospects for arab states but
onces -- mountingoutput is shrinking, 6% this year. less than the 7% forecast in july. the improvement is fueled by an upward revision for saudi arabia. build theaid nokia to first cellular network on the moon. they plan to create technology that allows remote control of vehicles and permit real-time streaming of high definition video. nokia says it will take -- it will create sustainable presence on the lunar surface. the system will be integrated into a lunar lander, which will self configure on the moon. president trump says he will remove sudan from the u.s. list of state sponsors of terror after the african nation promised to make a long sought after payment to american terror victims and their families. pay --ill play -- will
iran, north korea and syria are the last on the list. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. tom: let's check in on the markets now. broadly, it is risk off in asia. you have what is happening in terms of the covid situation in europe. in the u.s., you have ongoing stimulus discussions. here, we had the loan prime rate on hold. up veryis nudging modest gains. lackluster, e central he. -- essentially. rish was pointing out that foreign investors have been taking heart in terms of what is going on in japan.
out theei has wiped losses for 2020. it is down by 3/10 of a percent. futures in the u.s. despite those ongoing discussions, up by 3/10 of a percent. maybe investors feeling modestly more optimistic. potentially some kind of agreement on stimulus. down 2.3% on the back of this deal around into wanting to spin off its business. alibaba is in focus. getting more detail on the ant group financial deal. ipo crossing a few important hurdles. up close to 7.5%. rishaad: picking up what you were talking about with ant group winning the green light
from the hong kong exchange for its massive listing in the territory, paving the way for its biggest ipo. sales ant group such as ant group -- sales such as ant group 's offering. with discuss this and more lun.is are you buying into this ipo and if so, why? francis: definitely. everybody is looking forward to it. it is the ipo of the year. it is not of the decade because it will be the largest ipo in the world's history. 35 billionking about u.s. dollars. i think [indiscernible] heard, the institution investors, those
buying something like 30 to 50 billion hong kong dollars are willing to pay a premium to get a confirmed allocation. -- the market right now is you have to pay at least 6% extra to get the confirmed allocation. market, is to the think it will be the deal of the decade. rishaad: that is quite a claim. how do you value this company ultimately? if we look at ant group financial, it is both a financial institution plus it is a tech company. we have this huge gap. we have a chart that shows is the gap between discretionary stocks and those which are china
financials. a huge gap between them. where does it fit in? is it somewhere in between? i think you have to look at ant as the future of banking. a commercial bank [indiscernible] because they are overcharging consumers. right now, when you make any transfer, the banks will charge -- from $20 if you're in a high-risk group, they will charge you even more. that is how commercial banks make their money. for internet companies like ant, they do not charge you anything. they charge you a nominal fee of maybe $100.
and then, you do not have to wait for the bank [indiscernible] future, banks will have to learn to compete with internet financial institutions like ant. otherwise, they will go out of business. [indiscernible] tom: that is the bull case. what about the regulatory challenges? i am not just talking but the challenges emanating from the united states but also the domestic ones as well. francis: the problem with internet stock is it is an open market. it is unregulated. anybody can get into it. you were to open a commercial bank, it is very
difficult to get a license. the internet payment system, you do not even need to get a license. anybody can participate. the trick is, you build up work in shares so that you can railroad up the weaker competitors. then you can dominate the market. this is happening in the appleet and anyway from to amazon to facebook to netflix. is trying to do is destroy the competition, to make it the only one in the market. would you still want to buy into this if the united states put ant group on its entity list? now, ant'sght
business in the u.s. is minimal. for all these chinese internet tiktok, isonly one, big in the u.s. the rest have very little business in the u.s. and you should think chinese internet companies. chinese company rather than global companies. they operate differently from apple, amazon, facebook, etc. they are basically chinese companies working inside china and they make the bulk of profit, maybe 99% from china. sanctions ant, it will not hurt that much. tothe long run, if ant wants expand internationally, they will run into trouble. tom: always appreciate your securities.om geo
on in the aviation industry. delta airlines continuing to reopen operations between the united states and europe. exploring the new normal of flying and what it means for the crucial business travel market. >> it was quite a change in our plan for the year. we just finished an all-time record. not just for the u.s. industry but within the global industry. revenues and profits and customer satisfaction, all the things we want to pride ourselves in. when the pandemic hit, we went from that to less than 5% of our revenues within 30 days. finished just reporting or third-quarter results. we are 20% back. second quarter, we were 10% back. third quarter, 20% back. expectingrter, we are
to be somewhere between 30 to 35% back. slow, steady improvement. people are getting more comfortable -- more confident with air travel. one of the travel -- one of the problems -- one of the problems we have with air travel industry is the other aspects of the journey. the businesses are not open. the restaurant are not consistent. the quarantine measures are pretty significant in many parts of the country and certainly the world. the world has not really opened up to travel in a meaningful way , certainly not air travel. as it does, we are going to be well-positioned. >> how hard is it to keep reassessing that environment when we are looking at the u.k., france, parts of europe having to double down on lockdowns? how confident are you that by 2021, there will be some sort of normality echo >> i do not know
that 2021 will be completely normal. yearis probably the first of the new normal as people like to say. when we look at this winter, i think you're going to continue to see more of the same. i think people are itching to get out. transportation, people more broadly are continuing to move certainly in the u.s. stats. been watching the we watch the world status every single day in every market around the world. it is quite troubling when you see the surge. really it has been over the last six weeks in europe. when we think about the u.s., we have more states where the virus is growing than where it is contained. bettersouth, we are at a spot than other parts of the u.s., but the virus moves. it is one of the challenges we have in anticipating getting ahead of the virus.
unfortunately for our business, it means people not traveling. >> you have taken dramatic steps. blocking the middle aisle. what does this new normal you mentioned look like? does the business traveler come back? that was really an area you double down on? travel is key to our business model. i do think it is going to come back. i do not know that it is going to come back entirely. i think video technologies are certainly going to be a complement to business travel. it will be some distance trips -- some trips that will not need to be taken. to beot think it is going a substitute in any meaningful way. i have been around this business for a long time to -- a long time. every time we go through a period of crisis whether it was 9/11, global recessions, any kind of economic bump, the first
thing people are quick to say is business travel is not going to return. that it is going to be substituted. you can go back in time when email first started. now it is digital technology that is going to replace it. the human spirit is not going to let technology get in its path. i think people are going to want to be together. our mission is to connect the world. the world right now feels very isolated. it feels very distant from itself. in some ways to me it is reaffirming the purpose we have in what we do. bastian speaking with caroline hyde. goldman sachs is poised to pay teaming in dollars in the department of justice's probe. this deal could be announced within days. we are talking about a long-awaited packed with the u.s. department of justice. they have reached that pact.
it is part of an international action, which will let the parent company avoid a u.s. conviction. payment to the justice department is in line with the prior reserves. sachs at $153 billion of cash on its balance sheet. this is $2 billion of it. tom: they should be easily able to digest that payment. singapore as well planning to levy a financial penalty according to sources. new delhi is ready to sweeten the deal for the sale of air india. that as the company attempts to divest its stake in the state own carrier. an investor will be able to decide how much debt to take on. that should make it a more attractive acquisition. let's bring in our new delhi bureau chief. what is the reason behind the change in position? >> essentially, the government
is struggling to [indiscernible] revive plans earlier this year. partly the reason is $3 billion debt the government made it mandatory for the new buyer to pick up. this was basically debt the government had taken on to buy new planes for the carrier. this seems to be the biggest hurdle. given the fact that the government is a massive target. it is now footing the bill by allowing -- [indiscernible] buyers theyal to are open to discussing the debt.
rishaad: this has been going on for years. it has been difficult for any administration to flog this airline off. now?rucial is it does it take on a new imperative given the state of indian government finances? >> they have got a 2 trillion ruby target for this year. that is finally riding on two companies they want to sell. the other one is air india. air india is struggling because of the debt. not anot as if it is attractive proposition. [indiscernible] rights inlending
airports like heathrow and jfk. --se are advantage [indiscernible] pandemic and the amount of debt are two things that have held it back. that is the reason why the government has not been able to sell it. if you look at the government's finances, it is imperative they get this company off their books and get out of the business of funding airlines. rishaad: thank you so much for that. are having a look at working from home or not as the case may be. we are looking at morgan stanley's asia staff. we will have more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: morgan stanley reporting 10 to 12% of its u.s. staff are back in the office. that is a much smaller amount than have returned to its offices in asia and europe. the bank says it is going to continue to be flexible as the pandemic lingers. where are we with this and why the return to work in europe in particular when the pandemic
shows signs of a second or third wave? -- new york,rk, to cases have temporarily plateaued. there was a concerning trend at the start of the month and you have to realize the u.s. -- in the u.s. states, covid continues to be a problem. saying he stanley ceo is hopeful there will be a covid-19 vaccine readily available by mid 2020. before then, he expects to see more people at work. right now, it is at 10 to 12% in the u.s. offices. 30%.rope, it is about in asia, they are seeing the highest level of return. about 40% of workers are back. flexibility and work arrangements will be the name of the game for at least as long as the coronavirus lingers shared -- coronavirus lingers. during masks on the trading
floor and throughout offices, masks have become normal. it is the law in new york city to have a mask when you are in public. about 25% of staff globally be back by the end of the year and steadily increasing from there. bloomberg caught up with him at an industry conference. he says quote, i doubt we will be back to exactly where we were pre-covid. again, he is expecting a steady but slow increase back toward normal but not really a return to a normal next year. tom: that is james gorman. how much alignment is there amongst wall street banks and executives on this issue? do echo thosets of jamie dimon who had initially been the most vocal of all his
peers and encouraging wall street workers to go back to work. there were a couple outbreaks on trading floors that created a setback. that has been an issue. if you look to citigroup and wells fargo, they said last week on their quarterly earnings call that workers will not be returning en masse anytime soon. firmly gorman saying he believes the opposite is important for mental and, development, and all that. and that they are going to allow for flexibility. you also have jamie dimon saying there are big benefits to having people back in the office. earlier this month, he conceded the path back to normal is going to be a very long path. back to you. tom: might be a slow grind. a quick check of your latest business flash headlines. south korea's two top carmakers
are taking a combined hit of almost $3 billion due to costs related to last year's settlement of a u.s. class action suit over engine defects. hyundai is setting a 51 $.8 , the --to with kia the lawsuit alleged a defect that could cause powertrains to catch fire. midmarket carmaker renault is aiming to shake up the luxuries seen by turning at alpine mark into a rival for ferrari. the 65-year-old sports car brand was revived after two decades of being dormant and has sold barely a thousand of its model this year. the ceo things alpine has a big future and has already rebranded the renault formula one team as alpine from next year. this is what it looks
the dual listing could be the biggest share sale in history. rishaad: goldman sachs has reached a deal with the u.s. overthrow in the missing money scandal. sources telling us it will pay $2 billion to pay -- to avoid a criminal conviction. markets asia under quite a bit of pressure with the stimulus in question. both sides at odds over the scope of an agreement. the msci index down. china trading lower for a fifth day. china stock valuations looking stretched. trading near the most expensive valuation. lpr's on hold.ts 7.6.ury still above rishaad: let's have a look at
the markets. been -- we have had days of weakness. of protestsackdrop on the streets. are authorities [indiscernible] they are continuing daily since the government imposed emergency rule last week. it looks as though we will get indian stocks little bit weaker at the start of the trading day. that would be broadly in line with what is going on. it is a time we have seen global funds move into indian bonds. the yield pretty much unchanged. that is where we are with a look at the possibility of a positive start or should i say negative start to the indian trading session. let's have a look at the first word news. goldman sachs has reached a long-awaited deal with the u.s. justice department.
sources telling us the bank will pay $2 billion to avoid a criminal conviction in the u.s. and the agreement may be announced within days. back in july, goldman resolved a related inquiry in which a resolve to pay 2.5 billion. infections rising in 48 states while europe is imposing tighter restrictions on daily life. london, paris and other big cities under strict curves and ireland and acting some of the tif -- some of the toughest restriction seen. the world health organization has said fill your tour control quarantine roles has led to the resurgence. protests --treet the benchmark index did close at its lows level since april 16 as demonstrators about to keep up the pressure for constitutional reform. 5% index has lost more than
of its value since these protesters took to the streets of bangkok. president trump's reelection campaign is taking on the debate commission ahead of his face-off with joe biden. it is challenging the topics and potential rule changes. including the meeting of microphones. campaign manager saying the commission's quote, pro-biden antics have turned the debate season into a fiasco. that is a look at the first word headlines. haslinda: speaking of the u.s., u.s. futures edging higher as investors hold out some hope of a deal on stimulus in washington. asian stocks are slipping after a weak session on wall street. presidentuest things trump may agree to the bill. cis bring in the ceo of office. good to have you with us. betweentruggling
pessimism and optimism and only daily basis. themarket has factored in stimulus. it is just about the timing and how big it is. >> less -- yes. the mood seems to be we do not want to get onto far but there are days when people are negative about life. if you look at the tactics, the timing is difficult. it has got to be done. the economy needs it. whether it is president trump pushing are the senate giving in, i think a deal will be done. haslinda: will it be a game changer for risk assets if we see the stimulus? gary: i think we are going to need to get past two things. we'll need something in the order of one to $2 trillion in the fiscal packet. secondly, we need certainty about the election. i think if we get both of those and i would have thought we
would be in that position by the end of the year. i think we could see risk assets going higher. at the end of the day, he will do not want to be sitting on cash. they have acutely cash because they feared risk would rise in the fourth quarter. they will want to put that cash to work when long-term interest rates are at such low levels. haslinda: it is also coming at a time when uncertainties are resurfacing. had av -- we have a resurgence of virus cases in the u.k. and u.s. will that be an important factor for the markets? months,ter six or seven it is getting less sensitized to this and therefore thinking, what is going to be the other side of the rather than the damage that has been done. we also know that policymakers will react if this second round causes material damage to the economy. --t time around, we will not
we were not sure of the policies. we now know what the policies will be for spending. i think the markets can find their way through it and remain on a positive track. look at ant's financial coming to the market. this is huge. it could be the world's biggest ipo. what kind of a message is that out of china? gary: i think it is a positive one. i think there are a couple things that hopefully puts it to bear. firstly that hong kong was going to be a difficulty longer-term because people have turned away from the financial center. that clearly is not the case. secondly, that everyone has been focused on the u.s. for its tech industry and the assumption that ipo's had to happen in the u.s. market. they are not and they are happening in china. china has shown it can produce
world-class companies in that tech sector. very helpful for the chinese markets and helpful for hong kong. we have the trade rivalries and the trade war. you also have this argument about stimulus and the other worry, which is the election coming up. how does that dovetail into what you recommend for clients? we have seen in asian markets and u.s. markets erase the losses for the year. you look at specific ones? assets.ook at chinese are you looking at bond differentials or yield premiums? aspects havere two been looking into the future. premiumsyou want yield shared the chinese bond market provides yield premium. -- wrist premiums we see the spread narrowing
between china and the u.s.. people will look for the other side of the virus when things get back to something close to something called normal. we will look to buy assets that have underperformed. that means japan and also means at some stage places like europe, which have performed poorly for much of this year. also means i think china holds on to the gains we have seen and can make further progress. one of the few economies to emerge from 2020 with gdp up and not down. rishaad: i have been wondering about this with what central banks have done. we are testing the limits of monetary policy. quite a lot of that is by their own admission. the fed for instance looking at their inflation averaging. have they become relevant for the time being at least? gary: i think the time being. i think they are all taking a pause.
we will stand behind those governments. see an i mean we will extension of fiscal policy. particularly if we got a vaccine and countries wanted to provide a significant stimulus to get their economy going to it will spend money's -- spend money. will be anre expansion of quantitative easing in order to force long-term interest rates down. next stage fiscal policy. i think the third stage would require central banks to be active in quantitative easing. haslinda: i want to turn your attention to the u.k. boris johnson playing a game of chicken. how do you see this playing out? a game ofope it is chicken and he is going to give in at the end. there are concerns he may keep pushing and pushing until europe gives ain.
we hope it is -- gives in. hope both sides find a compromise. if not, u.k. is facing a difficult 2021. haslinda: u.k. assets still at risk. at what stage would you consider buying them up? gary: i think we would only buy them if we had clarity about how they are going to leave the e.u. there are number of markets around the world that have not done well this week -- this year. if you are buying for recovery after the covid crisis, i think people would steer away from the u.k. until there is clarity as to how they leave the e.u. and how much damage has been done to the economy. wondering, how do you hedge against all of the risks you see in the market right now? gary: are two hedges in our portfolio is the long-duration
kid long dated u.s. government treasuries and secondly, gold shared gold has been quiet, but -- gold has been quiet. we know gold could be up 10 to 15%. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. we are going to take a break. still to come, opec and its allies warning of a precarious outlook for oil. we will get the insights from sge. that is later this hour. haslinda: plus, hong kong is set to be a part of what could be the world's biggest ever ipo. t group ma's and wins approval. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg markets. ant group reportedly winning the green light from the hong kong exchange, paving the way for what could be the world's biggest initial public offering. forre still waiting shanghai to approve this. i suppose they are not going to say no, are they? >> at this point, it seems like it is a fairly procedural thing that ant is waiting for. our sources have said they are expecting the securities watchdog in china to accept their ipo registration sales for shanghai within a few days. also, we were told yesterday they had their hearing with the hong kong stock exchange and the company is expecting a formal approval as soon as today. is,inda: the big question when can we expect ant to list?
>> right now, they have a pretty brief window before the u.s. election. obviously, if they list before that, they can avoid market turbulence. the company has said they do not have a specific timeline they are going to stick to. they can do the roadshow as early as eating the approval from the hong kong stock exchange. investors are expecting the roadshow will be fairly short because it is so high-profile and investors are already quite familiar with the company. the numbers involved are quite mind-boggling, but there is more to the significance of this than just the numbers, right louis? -- right lulu? lulu: the numbers keep going up. the latest we are hearing is the company could reach a valuation of at least $280 million.
it would make it the world's largest ipo. there is more at stake in terms of the financial markets because this is such a nature ipo for hong kong -- such a signature ipo for hong kong. can think of it as shooting pangs creation to boost -- of that as xi jinping's creation. pushing the hong kong dollar demand to a record. it's do a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. intel has confirmed it is to sell its emory unit to sk hynix for $9 billion. since taking over last year, the ceo has been looking to sell parts of intel that are not focused on its main business of making processors for pcas. -- for pc's. intel has already sold a smart
phone modem. korea's two top carmakers are taking a combined hit of them was $3 billion due to costs related to lester settlement of a class action suit. kia with the rest. third-quarter earnings will be announced next week. could cause powertrains to catch fire. midmarket carmaker renault is aiming to shakeup the luxury car seen by turning at alpine marquis to a rival for for ari. revivedts car brand was . it has sold a thousand models of its model this year. the ceo things alpine has a big future and has already rebranded the renault formula one team as alpine for next year. amc entertainment and other theater stock surge after the governor of new york state said
some locations would be allowed to reopen. in enjoyed its biggest gain five months. the coronavirus crippled the sector. andrew cuomo said cinemas can reopen at 25% capacity from friday apart from new york city itself and other virus hotspots. still to come, time for a morning call. a look at some of the top analyst recommendations. this is bloomberg. ♪
with a winter surge in virus cases. the chinese financial hub of shanghai back in the office. they have not been any local cases reported since june. top developer expecting a similar rebound once a vaccine comes out. in a virtual panel at the milken institute global conference. >> to see that people are back at work, a lot of people wear masks but largely, life has gone back to normal. the firstliest times, two quarters of this year, we installeding -- we infrared cameras to check temperature, body temperature of every person coming into the building to we do not even do that anymore because china now has almost zero virus. it is not required anymore.
you can see that working life has definitely gone back to normal. i think that is very important. once people feel safe -- it is not that hard to get back to how ordinary life is. i know outside of china, outside of asia, people really wonder whether this is going to be a transformational change. would people ever go back to work to the old ways? people are so used to working online. this is not the case in china. there are people just everywhere. >> i would love to talk more about working from home and whether or not we see this hybrid approach. you are saying people want to come back to work. >> people want to go back to work and i do not know how change ifit is a people wanted to stay in secondary cities or stay outside
the city. just pre-covid, there were times we talked about how people wanted to work in a much more close environment, less square footage per capita like we work, like the shared offices. that was just the debate or the discussion we had pre-covid. i do not see how a virus slowdown this process of people want to work together because encourages-- that communication and innovation. young people just want to be together, to work together. i do not see how a few months or even a year staying more at home would change that fundamental human desire to be together. >> what are you seeing in terms of the tertiary or secondary cities when it comes to asia specifically echo >> it has not
really showed that much of a difference. secondary, tier two cities in china have never been able to catch up with a tier one cities, even with a massive population in china and with an incredible new infrastructure in these here two cities. still, i think talent and companies are largely attracted to tier one cities. in america, that might be different, but in china, that is the case. i also wanted to add one point. what we have seen in china over this october golden week, one week national holiday is there was so much pent-up demand in travel. hotels are fully bugged. restaurants are fully booked. -- are fully booked. restaurants are fully booked. the bus inot move on shanghai without pushing people around. demandas such a pent-up because people were so frustrated, lucked out for a few months.
they were desperate to get out. i expect that is going to be the case for london and new york. as soon as the vaccine comes out, people feel free to interact with people. haslinda: time now for morning cause. let's get over to sophie who has been tracking some notable views. expectede pboc as keeping borrowing costs unchanged. what is the outlook going into 2021? sophie: i want to bring up a contrarian call we have from julian edmonds prichard over at capital economics. his forecast is for a 30 basis point rise in 2021. that is going from the views of the likes intelligence who say the pboc is getting rates lower. pboc'ee a shift in the
focuss the heavy lifting to support the economy is mostly with fiscal policy. if we do see rates climb higher, that could mean profitability for chinese banks. rishaad: having a look at chinese banks, they really lagged behind. at least they are getting some optimistic calls on their earnings. who is making those calls? behind when it comes to valuation. with profitability looking to improve, cicc saying they see a banking stocks getting at least 60% unhealthy earnings to be reported in the last -- the next two quarters. today, we are seeing that rally in chinese financial stocks.
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♪ rishaad: just coming up to 9:00 in the morning in mumbai. live pictures coming through. 1% onfty off by half of its futures contract. lots of stocks to be keeping an island. we are going to look at some of these equities. we had gains through a second straight session on monday. banking stocks responsible for more of that. earnings naturally in focus. having a look at stocks such as
hdf see life. reported their quarterly numbers after the close on monday. it's have a look at some of the first word headlines. sources in washington saying democrats and republicans narrowing their differences on a stimulus package with nancy pelosi hoping to have an idea with her a bill might pass by the end of tuesday. she is due to have more talks with steve mnuchin and mitch mcconnell, saying the senate may vote in the coming hours. reelectionrump's campaign taking on the debate commission. it is ahead of his face-off with joe biden later this week. donald trump has confirmed he will be taking part in that debate. they have been challenging the topics and potential room changes -- potential will changes. the president's campaign manager did say the commission's probe biden antics have turned the
session into fiasco. donald trump is taking part in the debate. there is no basis for a resumption without compromise. russell set -- brussels says it is prepared to -- a fundamental change of approach coming from the e.u. boris johnson has warned anacortes unlikely but says the u.k. should prepare for a ordeal -- for a no deal split. their placement system will be fromt any $6 billion, up 10 billion in 2016. the minutemen arsenal has been in service for 50 years. the new icbms are part of a total update of the u.s. nuclear force. a combined total of at least $1.2 trillion. those are the first word headlines.
moderna now expecting covid-19 vaccine entry results in november. that is according to the wall street journal. the ceo says the federal government could authorize emergency use of the experimental covid-19 vaccine in december if the company gets positive results in november from a large clinical trial. we have had vaccines tested at least two of them have been suspended in the last month. moderna saying it expects covid-19 vaccine results in november according to an interview done by the wall street journal with the ceo of the company. let's take a look at where we are in terms of the markets right now. asian markets under pressure at this point in time. it is all about the stimulus. so far, no sign even though trump has said he is open to the
2.2 trillion dollar. the nikkei back from lunch. still posting losses after erasing losses from the year on hopes for the global economy. we have the hang seng also under pressure. the f ttp index up by half a percent after trading lower for five consecutive days on the political uncertainty in the country. some of the movers we are tracking. self too down more than 1%. it is said to have amassed more than $20 billion in -- of a volatile third-quarter earnings season. semi conductor lower by 2%. it is buying intel's is and is to china mobile up by a 10th of 1%. out with earnings today. where oil isng right now. it is under renewed pressure after opec last meeting. saudi arabia warning of
uncertain outlook for oil demand. the energy prints calling on opec to be proactive. as you can see, oil under pressure across the board. let's have a look at stimulusoing on in the fight. janet yellen told bloomberg what needs to be done to get the american economy back on track. >> i did meet with biden and harris and brief them about financial sector issues. i am not working with the campaign. but you asked me what i think we need to do to get the economy back on track. what hits my list is dealing more effectively with the pandemic, with the health-related related issues, getting the infection level under control through contact
tracing, testing, isolation of people who have it. i think we need a much more effective effort than we have had. bewe have that, it would good not only for health but for being able to open up the economy. we have seen that in countries ranging from germany to korea to china that have been successful. and then we need support for the economy both from monetary and fiscal policy. the terry policy has already -- monetary policy has already done a huge amount. --s policy response in it fiscal policy response in the unit states has been extremely impressive. actually, it has -- it is much larger. 2008was done after the financial crisis.
fiscal support has lapsed. so far, spending has held up. unemployed workers who got that extra $600 a week through the that touly, they use stay current on their bills to support their spending. they even stashed some of it away so they have been able to get through this last couple of months and pay their bills. it is running out. i think we need to do that. state and local governments also face huge budget shortfalls. i am working on a task force with the governor of california to address the pandemic. they face a $54 billion shortfall this year. i think that is very important. meantime, steve from mizuho was on. if congress were to trash --
were to pass a $2 trillion support plan, he expects the federal reserve to buy up all of that to help things along. do you think that is an advisable step? reserve's asset purchases, they have not made their -- not made clear their plans going forward. i'm expecting them to offer more guidance. the objective is going to be to try to keep long and short interest rates at low levels to support an economic recovery. it is not their objective ever to directly try to help the federal government financed its budget deficit. that would be a very dangerous kind of support to provide. purchasesxpect asset have worked. they are holding down longer-term rates. i expect there to be ongoing
purchases. to they not geared federal deficit. rishaad: janet yellen talking to us at bloomberg. oil moving to the downside again. we have oil heading towards 40 bucks a barrel in new york. opec-plus warning of a precarious outlook for the market. this as a resurgent virus has hit consumption. exactly where we are at the moment. ministersia' energy called on the group to be proactive in the face of uncertain demand. opec-plus gathered to assess the current state of the market. certainly to discuss more on this, we are joined by the --ector of
let's have a look at what opec-plus was concentrating on in your view. >> there is too much uncertainty going on in the market right now with a slowdown in the recovery of global oil demand. we think opec will not make a firm decision. [indiscernible] rishaad: the thing is, opec-plus could have cut supply, but there are dangers inherent. they cannot be too comfortable with oil at 40 bucks a barrel given the state of their budget, their national budget. you just have to look at the example, saudi arabia and russia. >> sure. it is no more about the budget at this point. we have a second wave of fire is
happening in the europe -- in europe, -- wave of virus happening in europe and the u.s. as demand goes down, they will have to [indiscernible] it is no more about the price level here. about the direction in which -- direction which the market takes. haslinda: what do you make of the issue of compliance? some data suggesting perhaps russia has been producing more than its quota. candidateshe two which are will producing our iraq and nigeria. what would happen is before the next meeting, opec-plus would ask these two producers to compensate for the oil production they did over the last two months. that would be the first step.
[indiscernible] looking into the crystal ball, where our prices headed into next year? towe have prices going close $45 a barrel. a long winter this year. at supply and demand, we continue to see growth happening in the next 12 months. even if opec releases [indiscernible] the market will be able to absorb it. [indiscernible] rishaad: thank you so much for joining us. news coming of through from the banking industry in the middle east. where talking about emirates
nbd. it has come up with its impairment of the nine months. billion u.s.1.7 3 dollars. it means profit in that nine-month. has droppe. -- nine-month period has dropped. having a lookare at bloomberg intelligence' inaugural models india and equity portfolio -- india and equity portfolio. this is bloomberg. ♪
haslinda: a quick check of the headlines.ness flash softbank is said to have amassed more than $20 billion in its new stock trading unit despite a response from shareholders. in august, bloomberg reported softbank was targeting $10 billion although the total could rise. we are told softbank tempering its plans last month. dow jones reports pioneer natural resources is in talks to buy parsley energy. produces to operate in the permian basin of texas and new mexico. there said to be discussing a deal that --
producers have been scaling up as the coronavirus hit oil demand. i when our shipment of bhp were up 7% in the first quarter. shipped 73 metric tons through september, putting it on course to reach its yearly target. ceo mike henry says it's industrial output last month surpassed expectations. rishaad: we had the indian markets open 20 seconds ago. let's take a look at what is a flat start of the trading day. we are getting that. essentially at the moment a flat start. to tens of 1% down. -- 2/10 of 1%. we are talking about the
centex, we saw this particular benchmark have a massive set of annual gains in the 1980's and the 1990's. the last 10 years have not been that kind to this particular benchmark. seeing an average of 8% annual jump. bloomberg intelligence has used the framework that combines dramatic analysis with tactical inputs from there emerging-market scorecard. they have arrived at a 30 stock portfolio. what are they? let's discuss that with the chief equity strategist. quite constructive on india from a macro policy standpoint, even during the darkest days earlier this year. do you still remain bullish? >> thank you. yes, i do. days orom the darkest slightly darker days and today,
march, april and may, i believe there are three or four things that brighten up my perspective as i look at indian markets. firstly, it is the policy syncretism. the monetary levels of the open market operation. they were done in a very thoughtful way and they are synchronized with the transfer policy within the physical mechanism. alongside that, the political stability should not be discounted. i know there is a lot of short-term pain or focus. thectural reforms like labor reform and farming reforms getting through. there are always two sides to it, but if we take a long-term lens, we see a lot of opportunity. , 50he farming reform percent of the population. in the system%
that goes out. ultimately, the beneficiary is the farmer. laws.are about 44 labor going forward, there going to be about four. and a company that has less than 300 employees have the ability to be -- to change the labor force according to their needs. there is tremendous structural underpinning. that positions it well for seven to eight percent growth. that is what really structurally makes me positive from a macro standpoint. talk to us about the themes you like the most in india. >> there are five themes were like across emerging-market. the same themes hold true for india as well. would like digitization of the consumer.
how consumption happens. india in many ways is going to look much more like china in terms of dominant consumer platforms. that is one theme i like a light. marketsve most emerging are going to draw a firewall around their dominant exporters. there is going to be a lot of reform and incentives from the government to boost these exporters. there is a theme we like around wellness and consumption. consumption more on consumer staples. affluent consumers weaving of the value chain, which is a theme we like in addition to wellness driven by covid another thanks. we truly believe fintech has arrived, especially in india with banks that have legacy and pay problems. the cost of acquisition is becoming an issue, especially when the growth is at the bottom
of the pyramid in tier two cities. the evolution of fintech is extremely important. the theme we really like the most among all the five themes as industrials. we see two very interesting trends. one is the d conglomeration that is happening. fiscal spending is going to be the panacea for any economic recovery. they would see a lot of best teachers deleveraging. -- of the best teachers deleveraging. coming up, tesla going to be sending its first chinese made cars to europe. we are going to have more on that on the way next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ haslinda: later this month, tesla will start exporting china made cars to europe. the first outside the u.s. has the capacity of 200,000 vehicles a year and is already delivering cars locally. for more on this, our asia transport editor joins us from the lion city. what is the significance of tesla selling its model three from china into europe?
mentioned, the car is going to be shipped to more than 10 countries including jury a -- including germany and switzerland. tesla recently lowered the price of its china made model three. one of the reason it has been able to do this is the battery it is using. it is from a chinese company. it is well-suited to cars targeting the mass market, which this model three does. this is going to likely lead to a shorter wait time between ordering and delivery. for tesla in china, it shows the importance the company places on the market. we will get further insight said that later this week. analysts are already saying china could account for 40% of tesla's sales. rishaad: the car market in china before covid was languishing to some extent.
recent months, it is holding up well as the economy recovers from the coronavirus. we are the pockets of strength? -- where are the pockets of strength? >> we had figures out recently that shows sales of suvs and minivans jumped 7.4% from a year earlier. wents -- itsaid it wants -- is a bright spot in china as we are seeing auto sales in europe for the u.s. languish as the economy struggles to recover from the coronavirus outbreak. what are the dynamics we are seeing within the market within china? >> china is the world's biggest
car market. we are seeing the introduction of some new models, innovative types of cars sharing strength -- types of cars. strength of you on is helping to lower the price. earlier this year, general motors released a car that retails for less than $5,000. actually outselling tesla in the month of august. there is another local player. this weekend, it is set to launch a high end luxury car. this is going to be a very smart car. retail forted to around 40,000 u.s. dollars. you are seeing demand along the spectrum for vehicles in china right now. rishaad: thank you. katrina nicholas joining us.
talking of cars and expensive ones, the world has a new fastest car. ofposted an average speed 316 miles per hour. that is just about 508 kilometers per hour. it did that on a seven mile strip of road outside of las vegas. it managed to beat the record set last year. it is named after a lizard native to new zealand and will cost 2 million u.s. dollars for each one. haslinda: it does look pretty cool, but it 2 million bucks, i am not so sure. let's look at where we are. the focus is on stimulus. whether it is coming, whether it is not. in hong kong, the hang seng pretty much flat. we have alibaba in focus. ant group saying it has approval
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♪ yousef: this is "bloomberg daybreak: middle east." manus: nancy pelosi she and thee mnuchin are narrowing differences on a virus relief package. the time runs short by -- to reach an agreement by election day. yousef: president trump is turning anthony fauci into campaign fodder, calling the infectious diseases