tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 3, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EST
♪ >> markets bullish on u.s. election day. almost 100 million americans of already voted. euro area finance ministers discuss covid-19. italy lays out fresh plans to stop the spread. and the corporate scum in thick and fast. an optimistic picture despite the pandemic. s&p says the virus is an inflection point. good morning and happy u.s. election day. this is bloomberg surveillance.
i'm francine lacqua. we track the markets and policy. we look at state-by-state, the difference between joe biden and donald trump to figure out what will happen overnight. what is clear is we are getting quite a lot of volatility. volatility spurred on because there is concern there will be civil unrest if certain votes are not counted. there is concern out there in the press we could see civil unrest if the candidates of whoever does not win actually sees people go out in the streets. stock climbing globally for a is americanbut it presidential election day so currency traders are taking the brunt off for the increased volatility. i spoke with one senior banker yesterday who said in terms of the trading floor, they will have pretty much full staff overnight to see what happens. when i asked about havens, it is difficult, he said, what would constitute a haven. a bit ofee the vix,
elevation earlier on. the pound dollar. , for the moment we are looking at some of the currencies. let's get the first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. u.s., as wellthe as nearly 100 million early pallets voters have already voted on election day. some towns in new hampshire have a tradition of owning at mid night. it was a big win for joe biden in the town, getting all five votes. millfield to the south was a victory for president trump with 16 of the 21 votes. twitter says it will not let election candidates claim victory themselves. a winner to be cited. sources say that two national news outlets state officialso, post-e go viral and accounts with a lot of followers. tweets that do not follow the
guidelines. a shooting in vienna last night has killed three people and injured around 15. police shot one of the gunmen police shot one of the gunmen. he was acting alone or with others. despicable terror attack with the interior minister saying the shooter was a supporter of islamic state. here in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson says there is no alternative to imposing a lockdown. he is revealing plans for whole rooto ouo be tested to boot t the disease. france has reported a record in daily cases. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquint take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much.
president trump democratic nominee joe biden conclude that last-minute blitz of campaigning in critical states. almost 100 million americans have already cast their ballots. biden currently leads naturally in the polls -- nationally in the polls. later in the program, we will discuss the election means for investors but let's focus on america's relationship with its allies. our first guest was british ambassador to the u.s. for four advisore is now senior to chatham house. -- is it aok at given that joe biden wins this. if you look at the dynamics of the electoral college, it could be a different outcome. >> good morning. thanks for having me on.
are we betting on a biden victory, i would say most people watching this closely in britain is a lot of people. quite nervous about the actual results because although the national poll gives joe biden a pretty healthy lead and has been constant for many months, the fact remains that in some of those battleground states it is quite tight. there are issues about whether those will be counted. there are issues potentially about voters being discouraged coming up on voting day. said, if you look at the favorability ratings, you look at the polling, you look at the battleground states, it ought to be a biden victory that i don't know anybody in the united kingdom watching closely that is taking that. we are all waiting to see what happens. francine: what are the swing states that you are looking for? and what happens if we don't
have a clear outcome. do you worry about civil unrest in the u.s.? peter: on your first question, we would love to have an early result. we will be watching carefully what happens in florida which will be as usual very close. e likely to give us a result in the early hours of tomorrow morning. texas would be an extraordinary when. probably not quick to happen. it has become a tossup. arizona, which tends to give an early result. the are the really key states in the three midwest states that trump won somewhat unexcited, michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. pennsylvania the most in porton what and no one really expects to get a result on that until later in the week, seems to me, but i am no expert on that. i think we are watching for the interesting ones, the ones that will give us an early result. i think that will be the most interesting.
the second half of your question -- francine: all right, let me ask you again, when you look at some of the things we should be worried about, civil unrest, does that change the dynamic between the u.k. and the u.s. depending on who was at the white house? if there is a biden presidency, does it mean boris johnson will likely have to wait for a trade deal? unrest, we share the same concerns that many people in america do. we worry to see people boarding up their shops. we worry about people taken the law into their own hands to supervise other people's voting. we are a bit concerned and there has been some pretty inflammatory talk on the trump side. let's hope that is misplaced and not a real threat. on the other question, on what does it mean to the united thatom, it is no secret boris johnson has felt a certain
affinity with the donald trump. there are similarities. their approach to politics, their approach to desire for applause and so on. i think they have got on extremely well. it is not the case the relationship between vice president biden and boris johnson. i think in terms of trade and brexit and so on, yes, from the point of view of the current british government, they would be pleased to have a president another four years who says he loves brexit and who has said that he would like to give the united kingdom a free-trade agreement. i'm one of those that haven't saying that a free-trade agreement between the u.k. and u.s. will not change the price of brent. it will not make a difference to the trade. it will not make difference to gdp. i'm more worried we might have the united kingdom leaving the european union with no deal which means our trade with other countries will be less advantageous. when you ambassador, look at the policy of joe biden
on foreign policy, on how he would deal with climate change, what would actually change between the u.s. and china if he becomes president? that: what would happen is a president biden would put the united states back at the heart of the paris accords and the international negotiations on climate change. president trump took america out of it and it had it had in effect until 2021. that can be changed. with china, i think one of the things that president trump has done is to pull the cord on a lot of people saying china has had a good run. china has had a good terms of trade. we treated it as a developing country with all sorts of advantages in terms of how would could trade, but actually it is not a developing country. it is beginning to be the lunch of working people in many different countries. i think that has become a pretty bipartisan issue in europe, which believed strongly in free-trade. it has become an issue in
america. my guess is that a president biden would also take a pretty firm line with china but would probably not do so in the unilateral way and he won't be doing a policy of let's have lots of tariffs because that raises the prices for american consumers. i think he will want to work with allies on ways of engaging with china rather than doing it all by himself. when you look at some of the things that could change under joe biden's administration, is it energy, technology? is it something else domestically? policy, i suspect, will be a bit different. we had biden saying whatever trump says, they are not going to ban fracking. need too said we transition away from fossil fuels, which i think is a
responsible approach to take, although it does not go down well and some of those key battleground states which are strong on fossil fuels. coal, oil and gas. i think that would be very welcome. more generally, my guess is that a president biden will be saying to himself we are not going to just reset the calendar as it four years of donald trump never happened. we are going to have to address all of the issues that have left tens of millions of americans feeling abandoned, left behind, ignored, and what are we going to do to address those concerns? that is partly policy towards china, partly about stimulus, recovery and partly about how you address the covid issue. beating up very hard on the president with his approach towards covid. america along with britain has been suffering pretty badly and governments have been slow with some measures they need to be taking. i think that will be a high priority.
i thought that a president biden would want to address the concerns of many of the people who voted for donald trump and who would want to vote for himself or whoever democrat it is next time around in this very difficult situation where so many middle-class incomes have been stagnant for the last decade or so and people feel pretty unhappy. foreign policy, there are number of issues that will be a bit different. russia will be closer. we talked about china. i think on the middle east, you will see president biden will be different. he will be firmer on saudi arabia on human rights issue. he might want to stand up to some of the issues going on in turkey, a country he knows well but he has been worried about some of the things happening in terms of freedom of speech and human rights in turkey. in different parts of the world, i think there will be a different approach and many of them, he would be in line with president trump. he will not be talked about
taking america out of nato which will be a very reassuring change of emphasis for the europeans. francine: thank you so much for joining us today, former u.k. ambassador to the u.s. coming up, plenty more on the u.s. election. it is voting day today. we will start have coverage throughout the day, and starting at midnight london time, we wrap it up. we will have the latest of all the market action as well. coming up, investors, how are they positioned as we head into election day? we will focus on the outcomes, including the possibility of a disputed result means for investors. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine>> almost 100 million hd so far. 100 million voted already, and more are going to vote today. >> they vote for biden is a vote to eradicate your oil industry. >> my message is simple. the power to change the country is in your hands. tomorrow, we can put it into a president who fans the flames of hate all across this country. >> i am running against a very sleepy guy. we cannot let the sleepy guy fool us because he happens to be a corrupt politician. >> time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. >> this election comes down to a very simple choice. do you want to be ruled by the corrupt and selfless political maniacs you are dealing with? or do you want to be ruled by the american people? focus on whats
the election means for the markets. wall street opens for its election day session with futures pointing to a positive start to trading. markets probably position for a biden win, but investors are alert to the possibility polls can be wrong again or we could see disruption with contested results. joining us is john norman, from j.p. morgan. perfect day to speak to you. first of all, what exactly are we looking at, because at the national level, joe biden is pretty far ahead of donald trump but if you look at the electrical map, electoral map, it could be pretty tight. john: i think we are looking at election and that favors a democratic sweep but it is definitely not fully convincing and conclusive because the margins have been narrowing somewhat in the national polls. some of these senate races are not as wide in terms of favoring the democrat as people would like to see if they are biased towards a sweet. there's always a wildcard risk over the next 48 hours.
francine: what happens to markets? what exactly is the market pricing in right now? a blueiden presidency or wave with the democratic majority in the senate? john: i think the markets are generally pricing in a sweep. that is one you can rationalize the fact that clients are long risking the market even if they are not long in size. there has been some outperformance over the past come of days in some of the market very exposed to sweeps like small-cap stocks. there's at least a view that biden will be the president even if he's not backed by a democratic senate. that is one of the reasons why asian assets have been waiting for several weeks. certainly, clients are invested for the idea of a biden win. they are little less completely invested in the idea of a democratic sweep, but that is
the positions are suggesting right now. francine: how are you expecting the evening to pan out? once the polls close in the u.s. -- i have been reading a number of press articles saying we could initially csee a red sweep because votes in person are counted more quickly and then we get the million votes that are leaning towards democrats. is this a scenario markets should be aware of? john: i think clients are generally aware of how fluid the aftermath of the election can be. we refer to this as election day, traditionally, a lot of folks have been referring to this as election week. i don't think people expect any finality in the next 24 hours. they recognize there are votesences in in person and postal votes. there is important states like pennsylvania that are not going to start counting the postal votes until election day. this could go on for 2, 3, maybe
more days. that is one of the reasons why even if clients have a bias towards a certain outcome like a sweep, they realize there are uncertainties. they realize the shape of the race will evolve as the different states deliver their results. and they are more likely to position more fully only after something is made official. there is going to be followthrough. if you get a sweep outcome, clients have been keeping some exposure and reserve, feeling like a situation will oscillate over the next couple of days. francine: what happens if we don't actually have an election resolved this week, the next two weeks? do markets just selloff because we are expecting social unrest or can you find havens in this kind of scenario? i don't think they selloff instinctively because there is no official result. it could be a number of days,
and number of weeks before we get an official result. you can distinguish between an unofficial result in highly suggestive result. a result highly suggestive a suite emerges in the next couple of days, yet those results are not official because some votes are being challenged in particular states. i think as long as the margins are big enough in a range of swing states, i think the markets will trade with what the in official news is. really, the more problematic scenario is where even the unofficial result are highly unclear whether or not this will be a biden victory versus a trump victory, and whether or not this will be a sweep versus a non-sweep. i think some of the traditional havens are the ones to go with. you want to be in some of these non-dollar assets like the japanese yen. i think because the treasury market has sold off this month, you could see a move lower in treasury yields, a rally and
treasuries which may be people had given up on as a haven trade. there are some options here. i favor the yen, i favor treasuries. francine: thank you so much. john normand from j.p. morgan stays with us. we will look at some of the emerging market and focus on currencies. with the u.s. election on the horizon, what do the results mean for european assets? we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london. it is u.s. election day. the stock markets climbing for a second day along with u.s. futures hours before the american presidential election. currency traders bracing for a bit of volatility. looking at treasuries slipping along with the gauge of the dollar. the measure of expected swings in china's currency rising to the highest and more than nine years. traders hedging against the volatile yuan after the u.s. election. i'm also looking at sterling jumping as the vote in the u.s. and its aftermath looms. next, europe's finance ministers discuss covid-19. this is bloomberg. ♪
word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: it is election day in the u.s. the latest polls show joe biden is leaving president trump nationally as well as in key states. the button campaign says the surge in early voting will help the democrats, but trumps up a team argues that voters heading to the ballot box can easily wipe out the early advantage. opec plus is inching closer to its january output hike. russia is keeping its curve for the next three months. as oil markets we can. planned to add almost 2 million barrels a day may not be such a good idea. australia's central banks cutting its key rate as yield curve targets and its bank lending facility. it is also announcing a new bond buying program worth 100 billion aussie dollars. that is as it seeks to ensure a rapid recovery from the pandemic
, and australia's first recession in almost 30 years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? thank you so much. covid cases are surging across europe. france reported daily infections that are record. in britain, boris johnson said there is no alternative to a lockdown on unveiled plans for whole cities to be tested. running us from brussels is maria tadeo. great to have you on the program. will they sound about the economy and the spread of infection? -- how downbeat will they sound about the economy and the spread of infection? anything they sound like christine lagarde did last week, they will sound very downbeat. the european economy is tilted
to the downside and there is no visibility in terms of the virus going forward, and the restrictions are becoming much more structural for the european economy. there are two issues that will probably dominate the debate. they have to do with the extent of the economic damage. they were hoping to see a rebound in the third quarter that would extend to the final quarter of the year, but that is now going to happen. the tension is whether or not we do see a double-dip recession taking hold in europe. the other issue has to do with stimulus. the idea that perhaps all we need to do is implement what we have already, the recovery, the european budget, the talks are blocked by the european parliament, or whether we need more firepower to be included in that recovery fund. there are two issues with regard to the economic damage already being done. the economic damage that could be done in the future if lockdowns continue across europe, it also how to deal with those two issues going forward, considering this is a crisis
that will probably be extended and now full into 2021. francine: maria tadeo in brussels covering that for us. let's get back to john normand from j.p.morgan. the concern is that it is going to be difficult unless we get massive fiscal stimulus in europe, for us to get out of this economic doldrums because of a second wave of infections and the lockdown. what does it mean for where you want to put your money? john: my preference would still be either in the u.s. markets or the east asian market. the u.s. market because i am biased toward a sweet, and i think that as a catalyst is important for helping the u.s. recover some of the outperformance he used to have prior to a couple months ago. i'm also biased with asia because they seem to have been much better at preventing a second wave from materializing. so in terms of getting more
stimulus soon, who is better at managing covid, it seems east asia, those are the markets i would prefer right now. the only european market you might prefer in a relative sense versus other parts of the word could be credit. will bee -- the ecb implementing policy changes at the december meeting. it could mean a faster pace of asset purchases. i thinkards credit, and that puts the markets in a unique position. i think that's enough to make the equity markets outperform the non-european markets, that is important in a credit context. francine: if you look at some of the other european equity markets, are you concerned that the ecb does not have enough tools or firepower to fix whatever is coming our way? think that should always be a concern because i think everyone realizes that rates are
at such a low level in europe, that leads to a reluctance to cut the policy rate further toward negative territory. the corporate bond markets in europe are not nearly as large relative to the size of the economy as they are in the states, so that the impact of those sorts of measures is less than it would be in the u.s. i would not say they are out of ammunition, i would just say the bullets don't fly very far. this ended the fiscal measures, they have to be the ones that are going to drive the recovery. the good news is the europeans seem to be quick about extending some of the worker and corporate support programs that they premiered in the spring. that is good news, but if you are looking for what is going to be the catalyst for europe to outperform, i think it has to be some easing of the lockdowns and return to growth. it is still too early in the virus cycle to think about europe outperforming just because the ecb seems willing to ease or just because some of the fiscal policies are operating in the background. i think we will see a rollover
in the case count, and some reasonable expectation that restrictions and activity could ease in the next month or six weeks. francine: give me a sense of, when you look at some of the currencies you are most worried about -- and we talked about volatility because of the u.s. election, what do you do with emerging-market currencies? break themnk you into probably two or three buckets. there is a high conviction bullish category, which is east asia, and these are some of the things we talked about in terms of asia's ability to manage -- on growth and corporate earnings and that drives performance. there is a second basket of currencies that have reasonably high real interest rates, moderate and domestic imbalances, and those will be go-to if the inflation story gets back on track. that could be mexico and russia. and there is that third bucket
of no-go currencies where it is not really clear how the balance around fiscal policy and indebtedness are going to be managed. i don't believe whatever happens in u.s. politics is enough of a swing factor in the direction of those currencies. those are still ones to avoid, turkish, african currencies. i think the message here is there is a pecking order in e.m.'s that clients want to be exposed to and should be helpful with versus a list of cheaper currencies where the domestic fundamentals are -- a selloff,f there is is that all asset classes at once hackett what do you do with havens echo if you look at swissie, yen, gold, is there any value to be played there? john: i think there is a selloff
in markets for -- if there is a selloff in markets for whatever reason, whether it is covid cases in europe or the u.s., or lockdown restrictions, or disappointment in the election outcome, i do think there will be a two or three-tier market. behink credit is going to much more stable than it usually is. as stable as it was in the face of equity drawdowns, with his you have central bank asset purchases geared toward credit -- ems, if you are geared currencies are the most exposed as well because of the lack of sovereign scored for a number of these. haven is always a tricky question because given the low level of rates, there is a degree to which bonds can rally. u.s. treasuries could rally a bit more in november than they could in september because we
are starting from a slightly higher level of rates, but i think maybe 10 or 15 basis is the maximum there. swiss and yen are still traditional safe haven currencies that work well on a forward-looking basis, simply because the main reason that they benefit is the services those countries enjoy and the use of swiss and yen as funding currencies. nothing about the structural drive with safe havens has changed, and that is why those are holding. it is 9:40 am in london and i have not asked you about pound or the bank of england or brexit. what is your take on whether we have a brexit deal, like we seem to be inching closer and finding an agreement on fisheries, and what does it mean for negative rates in the u.k., the second lockdown? john: i assume there will be a
deal because there seems to be mutual incentives towards that. but the bigger question, is it a meaningful deal that has meaningful -- immaterial deal? -- will it be a material deal? my guess is that it will not. when you think about construction, with british businesses, and you overlay that currently with the stress being imposed by lockdown? thet is a done deal that bank of england is going to ease more, i think they will go for asset purchases over negative -- ofbecause of the mega the negative side effects from asset purchases. the bank of england is in a similar position to the ecb in that the corporate markets are not as large as corporate markets are in the u.s. already -- the re is a lot ofe
stimulus from that stimulus will move to pound, slightly lower because there is a monetary policy divide between the bank of england and other central banks. but i cannot see the bullish case for sterling even under that never deal scenario. i think it will be an underperformer because of where the monetary policy is, because of the uncertainties of how the economy is going to cope in 21 under a limited brexit deal. you so much,nk john normand from j.p.morgan. he stays with us and we will have plenty more throughout the day on the u.s. election and on the euro group presidency. he is head of cross asset fundamental strategy at j.p.morgan. up next, jack dorsey keeps his job at twitter. we will bring you that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london. some of the tech stocks we are watching -- jack dorsey is twitterepin his job at management. tech, twitter, but also what a new president means, if joe biden gets to the white house, for technology stocks. alex, great to speak with you today. what did we learn about twitter management yesterday? >> >> there had been a review of
jack dorsey's leadership since it tookvist fund, and stake at the start of the year, but now they have given a vote of confidence. there has been a caveat because it risks being something of a stay of execution. changes, not least in the term lengths for board members, and also have asked for accession plans being put in place. it seems as though that might provide some scope and push for further changes at board level which would then of course make it easier to push for replacement of dorsey at some dayt down the line should -- francine: how much of a difference will it make if we have president biden in the white house? does that mean we will get more
regulation, possibly a breakup over these technology giants? >> can you repeat that? francine: i think we are having technical difficulties. what i was asking is if there was a democratic president in the white house, are we going to see a breakup of a lot of these technology stocks? alex: it is far from a sure thing. the difficulty is that the proposals by the house subcommittee last month largely seem to come from the democratic side of the caucus, and that -- there were objections from the republicans. with democratic control of the senate, which is a possibility, i think that would be the element which would make a break more likely, but it still has a long way to go. i think it would be partly dependent of what e-minis from the doj and the ftc
investigations into google and facebook because if they manage to make some progress, then these sort of appetites for legislative change, which would really be about forcing some sort of breakup, it could be diminished. california is the home state. she is friends with some of the top executives of these companies. -- if extent to which they prove to be the winners, come this time tomorrow or next week, whenever it might be, that will be an important factor. francine: alex, thank you so much, bloomberg opinion columnist alex webb, covering technology for us. this is what the markets are a dayahead of the -- ahead of voting. today is u.s. election day in
the u.s., and at the moment stocks are rallying for a second day, along with u.s. futures before the presidential election. forency traders bracing some increased volatility. i'm not seeing vix elevated for the moment, but we will look at what happens the rest of the day. treasuries slipping, and i want to show you the defensive shares. they seem to have lagged. currency markets looking for signals that will have some post -pole swings come and then banks leading up thanks to p&p perry baugh, dollar dropping. come bed biden headed into the home stretch for the white house race -- trump and biden headed into the home stretch for the white house race. all of the latest from the campaign trail next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mr. biden: almost 100 million have voted so far. 100 million voted already and more are going to vote today. pres. trump: a vote for biden is a vote to eradicate your auto industries. mr. biden: my message is simple. the power to change the country is in your hands. end a presidency that offends the flan -- the ofes -- that fans the flames hate across this country. it is time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. pres. trump: this election comes down to a very simple choice. do you want to be ruled by the corrupt and selfless political maniacs that you're dealing with, or do you want to be ruled by the american people? francine: millions of americans
head to the polls today, but with a massive turnout expected and an avalanche of mail-in ballots, there is the potential to end in anything from an early landslide to a drawn out brawl. joining us now is kathleen hunter, u.s. politics editor. what are the swing states you will be watching for, and how many of them could be called early? kathleen: i think that pennsylvania really tops that, shaping up to be the biggest prize tonight. candidates spending a lot of time there, there has already been litigation related to ballots in pennsylvania, so they have a high number of electoral votes and that is one to watch. another want to watch closely will be florida, which is the site of the bush-gore drawn out dispute in 2020 years ago. in 2000 20 years ago. that also is a popular state that carries an electoral vote. i would say north carolina,
arizona, nevada potentially, the battleground is quite large. michigan of course, wisconsin. a lot of states could be decisive. why does joe biden think the early voting surge gives him an insight -- inside track, and how is president trump back? kathleen: there is some indication that the number -- we don't know how people with early ballots voted, but we do know affiliated party is, and we have seen early ballot requests from democrats. thatve not seen evidence mail-in ballots are rife with voter fraud. in many states, those ballots will not be counted until later. when you kathleen,
look at the argument that it could take days to count the results, days or even weeks, or a month, at this point, how worried are different sides that this will also lead to social unrest? kathleen: i think that is a big concern and something that differentiates this election from certainly any i can remember, that we are seeing in urban centers like new york and washington, businesses being boarded up following the unrest that we saw over the summer with the police brutality protests, and i think there is a sense that this election could be different that way. we could see one or both sides coming to the streets to protest the result or protest how the results are being handled, and i think that is going to be something we have to watch closely in the coming days. hopefully it doesn't materialize, but there are some indications that it very well could. francine: thank you so much for your time today. bloomberg u.s. politics editor kathleen hunter. don't miss our full coverage of the election starting at
midnight in london, although before midnight we will also have coverage of the markets and some of the polls out there. we will be live across d.c. and with the markets as well. this election still a bit different in europe. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me out of new york and we are looking at stocks rallying for a second day. u.s. futures also up before the american presidential election. currency traders bracing for increased volatility. this is bloomberg. ♪
mood on election day. almost 100 million americans have voted already, and turnout is expected to challenge historic records. euro area finance ministers discuss covid-19. to angela merkel urges people to follow the world. paints an optimistic picture at despite the pandemic as an infection point. this is uber surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. it is exciting. today is a big day. we look at the dynamics in all of the swing states. two things we need to focus on. first of all, if there is a policyresidency, crucial differences -- i would point to energy, tech, and stimulus. on the other hand, we need to look at what is right for international audience. it is not about the national