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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 10, 2020 8:00am-9:01am EST

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>> markets will probably judge that this is no longer a contested election. >> some clarity around the election and some clarity with a divided government, which i is a great outcome for markets. >> the virus and economic growth is more important than the gyrations in dc. > the balance is tilting slightly towards excepting a little more risk. >> everything is going to be lower and flatter for longer. >> it is going to get worse before it gets better. a lot of regions may see double dips. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone.
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onwelcome all of you bloomberg radio across this nation and bloomberg television. extraordinary market action yesterday, truly historic. we will get to that in just a moment with someone who has a wonderful test but -- a wonderful tapestry of the history of the market. first we've got to get to the news flow. are we still doing election 2020, or have we moved on from that? jonathan: i think it may come back on the agenda, but today is as yesterday once again, just a little flavor of monday's price action. you will find it in names like amc entertainment, and the airlines. you will find it at the index level. the relative performance of the russell versus the nasdaq continues. you could drive a truck through it this morning. russell futures are up by about 1.6%. nasdaq futures are negative on the session.
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cyclicality starting to come back into this market. you've got to ask yourself where the risk is in this market, and the risk for many people in this market is where people thought was safe just a few months back. that is the treasury market, big tech, and that is what the vaccine news did. it just turned risk upside down. tom: right now i am going to rounded up, 0.9 5% on the 10 year yield. that is a lower-priced higher yield. lisa: that is how it works. i am confused by the narrative. it is not a neat narrative at all. . what i am struck by his suddenly, it is the cheapest it has ever been for companies close to default to borrow money right now, even though we have a high unemployment rate, even though we don't know anything on fiscal support, even though we don't really have a verdict on the presidential election, or who is going to control the senate. the narrative does not make sense to me. tom: the narrative is a jumble.
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overnight, and you will hear this through the newsday, not just the firing of the secretary of defense. kevin cirilli widely expects other firings this week, even today. overnight, attorney general barr with an original treatment of federal use of the department of justice in this election process. we saw a major resignation from doj on this. this is not a small matter. jonathan: no it's not, but it is not on the agenda of financial market participants. i find it quite amazing. i think most people disbelieve the president will work through the process and republicans are allowing him to do just that. what is going to be key for me is whether these key states will certify these results, and how quickly they do that. at the moment, a lot of people are getting them breathing room. at some point as we approach december 8, that gets a little more critical. tom: the gentleman from england
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get into the distinction of the matter, and this is important, the idea of certification of the elections. we haven't had that yet. attorney general barr getting out in front of the process before certification. futures red and green on the screen. dow futures go up 199. erro identifies that spread between the russell 2000 and the nasdaq. has seen --l sam stovall has seen all of this before. he is with cfra. just your single summary of how unusual was yesterday. sam: very unusual. we were up more than 5% at one point on the day, and then we closed up 1.2% on the s&p 500. when you look to closing percent changes, it is just simply a
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blip. we had five times this year that were even substantially stronger. up 9.4% in, we were a single day. so i would say it would certainly add excitement to one's portfolio, but certainly adding a lot in terms of asset value right now. jonathan: yesterday was a catch-up trade. we can all agree on that. where people thought the states have become a massive risk, you reprice the last 24 hours, done. or is it? was yesterday the catch-up trade or the beginning of a durable trend? that is really difficult to identify, but do you have a call on that? to: i think when you look the individual days, you are absolutely correct. thehad basically 75% of near 150 sub industries in the s&p 1500 in positive territory,
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so it was pretty broadly diversified. the s&p 500 was up post 5% in a single day. mid-caps were up 3% versus the large caps, a little more than 1%. i think because investors are saying we've got 10 companies around the world that are in phase three trial of a covid-19 virus vaccine, even if pfizer's stumbles a little bit, we still have nine more we can work with. so wall street is looking beyond the valley, looking beyond the spike right now and saying six to 12 months from now, things will be growing. the real question is by how much will analysts be elevating their 2021 estimates. lisa: we all have to look beyond this valley just to stay upright, frankly, because this pandemic hasn't been that fun. that said, you have to start worrying about valuations. we will start reaching a new normal before new record highs,
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predicated on the idea that interest rates will stay low. at one point -- at what point will be offset that narrative to say we need to reset valuations? valuations got too high for where rates may be. sam: good point. if you look on an absolute basis, basically everything looks expensive. 22.4&p 500 is trading at times the next 12 months earnings, which is a 35% premium to its average over the last 20 years. every sector except financials and health care are trading at double-digit premiums. on a relative basis, however, only consumer discretionary and energy are trading at double-digit premiums to the markets. so i guess it really depends on whether we are going to be seeing rotation or an actual retreat. right now from a technical perspective, i think we have to see interest rates go above 1% in order for us to see a
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technical rotation from a bearish trend to a neutral trend, and then i think we need to see interest rates rise more dramatically for investors to really get scared and think that inflation is right around the corner. lisa: we now have a 10 year yield near session highs at 95 basis points, so about five basis points away from that 1% mark. there's also a question of whether this rotation means losses for big tech or just underperformance. what is your take on that? sam: right now we are going for losses or underperformance. near-term losses, but more longer-term underperformance. when you look at the s&p 500 growth minus value on a rolling 12 month basis, we hit an all-time high in august and again in september, meaning that, going back to 1975, the 12 month percent change for growth stocks minus that for value was
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at about 35%, higher than where we were during the tech bubble of the late 1990's. so it just seemed it was a matter of time before we saw some sort of rotation away from growth and towards value, which we are in the very early phases of right now. jonathan: this raises a really important question. let me build on what lisa just asked. how much risk is there at the index level for passive investors just sitting and holding the s&p 500, given the weightings of these huge tech names? is there a lot of risk at the index level because of the weightings? sam: i guess so. you mentioned technology with microsoft and apple, but the new got facebook and the two share classes of google in the queue medications services. you have amazon and visa in the
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consumer discretionary's. it is not just one sector. it is spread around, so it is a large-cap index, and therefore the behemoths do tend to drive the action, but interesting, back in 2008, you would have said pretty much the same thing, yet the equal weight 500 tends to fall more precipitously in the early phases of bear markets or corrections. so it is interesting, but they do offer ballast because of their size, because of their market share, etc. jonathan: sam, great to get your thoughts on this market. what a move we have had. what a week already. places, the move continues. netflix negative. we talked about emc entertainment come positive. jp morgan, a huge day money. -- a huge day monday. we add a little more to that move. tom: amazon down as well, but
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amazon down because of the nasdaq weaker, or because of the eu regulation issues? i would suggest is more of you describe as the pullback in the nasdaq. jonathan: what i am trying to do, and i am really trying to understand, yesterday we had a massive squeeze. we need to think about the squeeze. are we going to generate the kind of recovery that leads to higher rates and acknowledges banks? or will we see more of the same post covid? tom: i would watch all of the markets, particularly the fixed income market. that brings up a really important point. you mentioned offsides. can you explain offsides in soccer? do we need a beverage of our choice? jonathan: not in the 25 seconds i have. i would need a serious drink to get through that conversation. tom: you put the flag out like
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this. there's a blue line in hockey. jonathan: there are no flags. tom: there is a blue line in hockey. where is the blue line in soccer? jonathan: it is a little bit different. it is about where the last man is. tom: the market was offsides. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro on "bloomberg surveillance." i was talking about a different kind of offsides. the s&p 500, -10 points. , the eli, david ricks lilly ceo, joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump's attorney general william barr will let the justice department investigate potential voting irregularities in the presidential election. barr has acknowledged there is no conclusive evidence, and he
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warned against what he called far-fetched claims. the head of the department's election claims branch resigned. the u.s. is set to hit record hospitalizations for the coronavirus this week. midwestare soaring in states such as illinois and michigan. in texas, el paso has more people hospitalized with the virus than 29 states. in the u.k., the house of to removected a plan the most controversial parts of the internal market bill. prime minister boris johnson immediately vowed to push ahead with the legislation that gives ministers the power to rewrite parts of the brexit deal johnson signed with the eu. european union has filed antitrust charges against amazon. that accelerates an investigation on the massive online platform. they say amazon's rules should not favor its own offers or
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those of-- offers over retailers using amazon's services for distribution. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mr. biden: i will spare no effort to turn this pandemic around once we are sworn in on january 20, to get our schools
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back to -- to get our kids back to school safely their economy running at full speed again, and to get a vaccine manufactured and distributed as quickly as possible to as many americans as possible. jonathan: president-elect joe biden following the news announced yesterday. some advancements on the science, and this market ran away with that news. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action of this morning. just a little flavor, a sprinkle of what we got yesterday. the underperformance of the nasdaq, the outperformance of the small caps. once again, treasuries just a little bit softer after yesterday's massive selloff, up another couple of basis points on the 10 year to about 0.95%. euro-dollar,on in $1.1809. we have a forum at the ecb later this week that is worth keeping an eye on. tom: let's dispense with the
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formalities right now and get to david ricks, eli lilly chairman and ceo. i think there's massive confusion over all of these fancy words, particularly around vaccine, around antibody treatment. we conflate bacterial and virus therapies on top of each other. differ fromaccine the antibody treatment you announced yesterday? david: thanks for having me on. exciting news last night with the emergency use authorization in the u.s. for our monoclonal neutralizing antibody, which is a therapy that you are to be given in this approval if you have newer onset disease, so a positive test and symptoms, and particularly if you fall into a high risk group. then you can take this therapy, and in our studies, reduce the probability you go to the hospital pretty dramatically, by
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70%. that is an important step, another tool now to help manage this disease, just when we need it most. when your body is infected with a virus, it amounts a variety of immune responses. one of them is we create antibodies, which have been much talked about in these antibody testing's. . these antibodies lock up the virus and dispose of it. we took antibodies from surviving patients early in the pandemic, isolated the most potent one, and now we make it synthetically and give it is medicine. tom: this is really important. can you just suggest that this bacterial like antibody therapy, almost like a bit serial -- a bacterial antibiotic, could be a substitute for a true vaccine? david: we are studying what we call passive immunization when
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you are trying to prevent spread. we are looking at spread within nursing home facilities. it is similar to vaccination in a way. when you get a vaccine, we introduce a killed or modified version of a part of a virus, and your body recognizes that it is foreign and mounts its own antibody response. hear what we are doing is giving you the antibody response of someone else prior to getting sick. it is a very interesting approach, and if we look at other viruses like ebola even, this is a setting where these antibodies made the biggest difference. in the u.s. and around the world, nursing home patients are at the highest risk, so this would be an important positive event, and we should have that data in the coming weeks. to build on what tom is discussing, we are trying to answer the question as to whether we need a multipronged approach, not just the advancement we heard from pfizer yesterday, but he also complemented by what we are doing -- by what you are doing
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at well. one thing is how difficult it is to store, at really freezing cold temperatures. can you speak to the developer and some that side and how difficult it will be to distribute some thing like that widely? david: for the messenger rna vaccine, they are fragile molecules, so they need to be held at a very low temperature. that will likely not be a major barrier once this is broadly available in developed markets with advanced medical systems. where it becomes a problem is ande refrigeration capacities in developing countries is going to be much tougher. that is what we have two of the leading 10 vaccines using this technology. eight aren't, and likely won't have those refrigeration constraints. i believe some of those will
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work as well. we will likely end up with multiple shots on goal with vaccines. none of them will work 100% of the time. we will still need medicines like our antibody therapy to help those that will still get sick, hopefully at a much lower rate as we approach something like herd immunity, but you will still have endemic disease, and we will need therapies. there's many examples where this is true, including common respiratory viruses where we vaccines and antibodies that can go together. we had two important developments in the fight against covid-19. i think the future is looking brighter, for sure. lisa: there are some practical concerns as all of the pharmaceutical companies try to ramp up production. i am wondering, supply chain issues especially as the pandemic worsens, the idea that all of these different companies are trying to go for the same thing and probably sourcing some
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of the same substances, as well as using some of the same staffers. how well can you ramp up production of the antibody therapies to meet demand in the next couple of months? david: i wouldn't worry so much about the competition phase where we are competing ideas. i think once it is clear there are winners, we will see the industry come together to make products at scale. that has already occurred in the antibody space. we have teamed up with engine in and companiesgen to build out the supply base. i don't think we are wasting the material by competing that way. of course, the antibodies are complicated to make, one of the most come to katie medicines we make. we -- one of the most complicated medicines we make. here we are trading about -- here we are talking about treating millions. it will constrain that system,
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and we will have scarcity. that is why the fda really asked doctors to you is it in the highest risk patients -- to use it in the highest risk patients. jonathan: serious issues. we have about 30 seconds left. i would love for you to do me a favor on the lighter note. can you explain the offsides rule to tom keene in about 20 seconds? tom: you're talking about in football? of course. offsides is when the offensive player is in front of the defensive player prior to the ball being struck. once the ball is struck, he can run a friend. it is different from hockey, where the blue line is what matters. tom: thank you. that is very good. this is the support of eli lilly to our olympic committee, which they have been committed to for many years. i think a blue line would solve it. you don't have to make it manchester city blue, just a nice chelsea blue line and it would work out. jonathan: there you go. tom: david ricks and his kids
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would like that. jonathan: we've got to get dave back to talk about sports. therapeutics. do you understand it just a little bit more now? from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action. negative, having a little but of a problem in the last 24 hours. down 1.4%. in relative terms, really underperforming the small caps in america. you see that against the russell, up 2%. yesterday it was about banks. banks are bid again today. the curve is deeper. 10'spread between 2's and getting wider. yields up on the long end. the curve steeper. i will finish on the fx market. dollar weakness is the story of
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the last week. this morning more nuance. it is pound sterling where you find a bit of strength. cable trading with a 1.32 handle. tom: i am watching the 10 year .95., going through to me that it's a big deal. up three basis points on the u.s. 10 year yield. economics, but with everything else folded in. michael gapen of barclays. we spoke to david ricks and i we speak -- now we move to indiana university and michael gapen. when everything is said and done, there is all this hoopla and then there is the american economy. does any of this touch the american economy and the groom labor economy we forecast forward? michael: it does, but it does probably more this year the next year. david gave a great interview
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with a lot of optimism about how we might treat covid going forward and get to a population unity as he spoke about treatment as well as vaccines. that is still largely a 2021 mentioned. with the news on pfizer there is distribution issues. the news is positive but it is not likely to be influential to the labor market in the next three to six months. it is more a one to two year story. it feeds a constructive narrative, but it still means the economy and the labor market needs help in the meantime to bridge that better scenario. it may take at least a year or more to get the population immunity. frame your calculation of the stimulus needed if we are subpar. michael: i think we can get by with something in the range the
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senate is talking about if it is targeted to where most economists think is needed, which is replacing salary income for those who are still unemployed and affected by work outages, as well as eight to state and local governments. the employment report last week was solid except state and local payrolls, which were down 130,000 on the month. we will have to see if that is a trend. if it is a trend it signals budget pressures are becoming acute. to $750$500 billion billion is enough to bridge the large parts of the economy into the early part of next year, when vaccines may be getting more traction in terms of their effects. more is probably better than last. i agree with chair powell on that front. i think more would be better ess, but i think we can
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get by with something in terms of the size the senate is talking about. lisa: the news about pfizer's vaccine was unambiguously good and what it raises is that we might emerge from the pandemic with less scarring to the labor market. how much of a game changer was the idea we could get a vaccine sooner than later and it would be this effective? michael: for us, we had already been assuming we would get an approved vaccine by the end of the year and tens of millions of americans and europeans would all be getting vaccinated by the middle of next year. it confirms that timeline. to your point, the real news in terms of the potential upside with that 90% effectiveness. if that bears out of the subsequent data, then it is a much more effective vaccine. there is scarring going on in labor markets. the share of long-term
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unemployed continues to rise. i would say it would help to minimize scarring. right now the number of long-term unemployed is still half what it was coming out of 2008 to 2009. it was a problem, but it is less acute than following the global financial crisis, and a vaccine could help minimize that going forward. jonathan: let's go with a better 2021 and think about the fed's new framework and how powerful you think that reaction function shift will be as things pick up in the back half of next year. put that to work. how powerful do you think that will be? -- in termsht now of the outlook and how to think about things, i think number one is medical advancement, two is fiscal policy, and three is the fed. thesek the fed needs other policy components to gain traction. we need an effective vaccine.
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we need stimulus to provide a bridge. accommodative stance and willingness to overshoot or at least want to generate and overshoot, that reaction function gains a lot of traction. thee do not get fiscal at vaccine turns out to be not effective, not sure the fed has ammunition. this is the big question for january and the georgia runoff. is your outlook predicated on what happens in one state with the senate runoffs? michael: not so much. we only assume five hundred billion dollars in additional federal spending. we went into the election thinking the senate was a coin toss so we were not penciling in $2 trillion and $3 trillion spending packages. if the democrats do take both senate seats, we have upside relative to our estimates, but i think that is a fairly low likelihood outcome.
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for us i think that is not as critical. for other parts of the progressive agenda it would be more critical, but i would not say that as a primary concern in how we see the economy going forward. i still think it is about the vaccine. ?o get something out of fiscal i think that happens either way regardless of the georgia senate. i think we know the fed reaction function. tom: what is the true unemployment rate? michael: probably a few percentage points higher. accurate6 is a more reflection of where the labor market stands, taking into account participation rates are several percent below where they were in pre-pandemic time. great, but i would give a nod to something more like 7% to 8% or 9%. obviously what we want the unemployment rate to get back down below 4% but we also need
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participation higher prior to where it was before the pandemic. i would look more to u6 than u3. lisa: i remember when we looked at the virus counts, when the pandemic would seem to be worsening people would get nervous and say it would affect the labor market. now people are saying it does not matter because we will have a cure and it will be great. how much does it matter since we are having a worsening pandemic and the prospect for more restrictive policy in the u.s. how could that shape the next months economically? michael: i think it does matter. i hope we have not given the implication it does not matter for labor markets. the assumption most of us are making is that although covid , it is unlikely states will resort to widespread lockdowns like we have last spring. the data has shown you can get close to lockdown mitigation effects if we do things like
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testing and tracing, wear masks, and have restraints on high-risk activities like restaurants, bars, and indoor activities. that is our assumption we are not going back to locking down economies and halting manufacturing production and not producing autos. that is the key we are making. it will have a dampening effect. there is no question about that. you can see what is happening in utah. that is likely to get replicated where restrictions increase. that will provide a break on activity. right now momentum is strong into the economy and so i think it will provide a break on activity but it does not change the direction of where we are going. that is the bet we are making right now. jonathan: great to catch up. barclays chief u.s. economist. let's work quickly.
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lisa, you raise an important point. mainly on adherence to these restrictions over the next several months. i was listening to the news conference with boris johnson yesterday and he responded to the new vaccine improvement and you could hear the cautious tone in his voice. more about the next several months and the bleep some parts of the population would say vaccine on the horizon on that we do not have to do this anymore. that is the concern going deeper into winter. lisa: you can hear all the policymakers trying to thread this needle. the idea we want to give people hope, but not too much. we are all sick of it. to reality is nobody wants keep social distancing and wearing masks. you can feel it when you go on the street, in new york. people are not always wearing masks. generally they are, but they are closer together, there is a feeling of letting up the pressure and that could lead to a pretty rough winter. jonathan: apply this to markets,
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i think there is a psychological bias to buy stops and have the rotation -- to buy stocks. i was talking to guy johnson. the bias to buy. everyone wants this over. the bias around the rotation. psychologically, it is what everyone wants to see works. tom: talking to the lieutenant governor of new york, you see the emergency in western new york. what michael gapen just said is absolutely profound. we do not know where the unemployment rate is. we have a 6.9% statistic and the u6 is 12.1%. i do not know where the unemployment rate is, but this america forine for president-elect biden and president trump, that cap is enormous -- that gap is enormous. jonathan: the headlines we talk about on the first friday are every month or not the headlines
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a lot of americans are living with. i will be running away to another property in a few minutes time. from london and new york, "the open" coming up shortly on bloomberg tv. radio, much tv and more on bloomberg surveillance. s&p 500 futures down 14. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. mitch mcconnell has given president trump cover for challenging election returns. mitch mcconnell says the president is within his rights and has no obligation to accept projections based on vote counts that joe biden one. mitch mcconnell and other republican leaders have not congratulated joe biden since news media call the election in his favor. obamacare returns to the supreme court. justices will hear arguments over whether the affordable care
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act is constitutional. conservatives argue it is not. they say the entire law was rendered unconstitutional when congress illuminated the pandemic -- the penalty -- eliminated the penalty on those remain uninsured. if the supreme court agrees, more than 20 million americans could be left uninsured. u.s. regulators could give the boeing 737 max the ok to resume commercial service as soon as next week. the faa is finalizing the review. hasng's best-selling jet been grounded since march of 2019 following two fatal crashes. peru the president has been surprisingly booted from office. the countries congress overwhelmingly voted to impeach him over allegations of corruption. he said he will not challenge the vote through legal channels. the head of the congress will become the interim president. peru is recovering from one of the world deepest recessions.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> with this particular vaccine, no corners work product. we followed this tried-and-true
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methodology and has worked so well for us in the past and continues to deliver superior and safe products. we undertook the manufacturing in parallel. tom: john burkhardt of pfizer. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. we have been doing a lot, maybe the most ever come on the pandemic, the virus, the antibody treatments to comp. we finish strong. lisa abramowicz and tom keene with deborah fuller from the university of washington school of medicine and microbiology. one of the great things with deborah fuller's when she wanders down to the undergraduates, comes out of the rarefied air of the fuller lab at washington state and speaks to the fundamentals of microbiology. that is a got course and one of our great extreme program on microbiology.
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explain the difference yesterday between a vaccine and an antibody treatment. they are in two separate worlds, aren't they? deborah: they are. vaccines are designed to protect you from infection and the , theodies are designed antibodies are designed to treat existing infection. that is the key difference between the two. tom: is the antibody treatment a path to get to the vaccine, and if so, when we get to the vaccine? deborah: what is important about the antibody treatments is it provides insight into what a vaccine might need to do. antibody treatments are able to help mitigate disease with people already infected. they are based on the types of immune response we are designing our vaccines to induce. the success with these antibody treatments provided insight and optimism that a vaccine that
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induces the same type of immune responses would also be effective. love thati -- lisa: i tom asks about the bacterial versus the viral response. based on the news out of pfizer, how close are we to the end of this pandemic? deborah: that is a great question. release of their preliminary data at 90% efficacy , that is really promising. that means they should be in a position to get emergency use authorization before the end of this year and you may see the limited rollout of their vaccine in december and then they would --in a position to complete this is preliminary data. they will continue to monitor the events. assuming the efficacy holds up -- it may go down, but even if it goes down and the efficacy stays above the 50% mark, which
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i would expect it would given their preliminary data, we could see a more widespread rollout of the vaccine by early spring. mean that byis early spring we could start not wearing masks and people could start traveling in life gets back to normal? deborah: that is not true. what will happen is it will take time to distribute this vaccine. it will require a widespread vaccination campaign. we are going to take time to be able to get enough people immunized where we will start to get the levels of immunity that can slow the pandemic down. during that time we will have to continue to practice social distancing and wear our masks. -- you will sure see other vaccines in late
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stages of development also rollout. iszer's announcement promising to those vaccines because they are designed to induce the same type of responses in their early data suggests they should be able to achieve similar immunity. it will take edema vaccines to immunize billions of people -- it will take a team of vaccines to immunize billions of people worldwide and we will need that time to continue to wear masks and social distance. we see the light at the end of the tunnel. tom: a social question away from your esteemed medical skills. vaccine, will we tell people buy a wristband or tattoo that we have it? lisa: on your forehead. tom: how does that work? deborah: just like other vaccines we take in the population, it becomes part of our medical record. be not onlytion can shared with public health officials in every state in the
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community and they can begin to document the rate of vaccination in communities worldwide. greatly appreciated. university of washington. lisa, i thought today our work on the pandemic was extraordinary. our team maybe had the best day ever. just killed it. lisa: this is the story of the day. if we can end the pandemic we can go back to amc, which is absolutely on fire. that is what you are seeing in the stock market with rotation continuing. there is a question, how much daylight is there between now and the reality of the pandemic and the end? tom: what we got out of all of these interviews is the market is way out in front, society is in front, and it is sometime in 2021 to be polite. red and green on the screen. bank stocks doing well. some of the action from yesterday. i have to go to the 10 year yield. it had a spike yesterday.
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i can tell you at 10:22 yesterday the 10 year got up to .97%. other than that, we are up to new yield with a higher guilt and lower bond prices. lisa: we are getting close to the 1% threshold. 1% 10 year treasury yield is not still theld, but highest levels we have seen since march. i find it interesting how much this might be what is fueling the risk off the in the nasdaq. if you start getting higher yields you cannot justify the sky high valuations and some of the stocks that have been perceived as a haven and how much will that be the driving narrative in the weeks to come. tom: i would like to talk to chris verrone about this and see how much of the cyclical pop we saw yesterday was just a bounce off the proverbial bottom and where do we go from that? an eventful day.
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help me with the data check. i am watching the yen. 105.31. stasis but nevertheless weaker. what are you watching? lisa: the dollar has been the story. today is a much more nuanced story. it has been dollar weakness. we are not seeing that today. are we getting risk on or risk off? people are nuanced, which makes me wonder how much people get stopped out of their positions and how much are people rethinking the reflation trade as having legs, and that is what we will be seeing. tom: dow jones industrial aboute futures 29.210, 800 points from the momentary print to the 30,000. it is a fun day for michael and myself. the president of the dallas fed, robert kaplan, we will have a number of important interviews. michael mckee will do a smarter
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interview than me. he will do that for bloomberg. i will be joined by robert kaplan of the council on foreign relations for a longer, broader interview. stay with us through the day. midmorning with jonathan ferro, next. ♪
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jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. s&p 500 futures negative but russell future still flying. we begin with the big issue. a rotation for the ages. >> boosted up. >> sector rotation as a result of this vaccine news. >> from defensive to cyclicals. >> more comfortable about the reopening trade. >> cyclical sectors bid more seriously. >> we have a perfect storm around some clarity. >> we are at the beginning of the move from growth to value. >> continued investment into some of these more value names. >> there'll be some internal rotation over the next couple of days. >> the vaccine news help spirit >> i expect some of these out performers to

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