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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 11, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EST

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probably judge this that this is no longer a contested election. >> some clarity around the election and some clarity with a divided government, which i think is a great outcome for markets. >> i think the vaccine, in a way, should be seen as a global fiscal stimulus. >> everything is going to be lower and flatter for longer. >> just a lot of cash on the sidelines that needs to be put to work. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
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bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. earlier this morning, mr. macron in his military, earlier london at whitehall, the british military, prince charles, i believe, in attendance there, and jon, you have to wonder who shows up with president trump today on veterans day in america -- that is a mystery. jonathan: we mark veterans day in the united kingdom as remembrance day, the 11th day on the 11th month. we will see the president today, and that is important. whether we hear from the president, two different things, and we would like to hear from the president to see where he stands on the contested election. it has been building up, particularly over the last couple of days. tom: we're going to go to market right now. , one, lisaexplain abramowicz is not with us today, an important day off for her come up in the catskills trying
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to find the proper word for the fourth thursday of november. dow futures up. look at the vix, under 24. jonathan: this market is balled up. jp morgan calling it market nirvana. goldman sachs, the roaring redux. 2700 for the s&p for year-end target. year-end 2021, 43 hundred. and that is the store this morning. the belief that 2021 is full of the good stuff and we just need to work through the next couple of months. tom: david cost of of goldman sachs says maybe catching it was one like alicia levine, to me, the important note is not up 21% productive but a 2022, as well. jonathan: and the vaccine being
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the more important development for this economy, as opposed to anything politically speaking. and that is keene talk. we will not understand the outlook until early january, until we work our way through the georgia runoffs, and we understand who runs that senate. tom: mr. pence is rumored to be in florida. we will stay in washington through the election. kevin cirilli is covering that. listing the guard moments ago -- the christine lagarde says duration of ecb stimulus matters, as well as level. christine lagarde, of course, head of our european central bank. i love that idea, duration over level. jonathan: i need a bit of context. duration of the bonds they are buying or the time that they buy bonds for? this ecb is going to be the market for a long time, tom.
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they will reinvest those maturing bonds on the balance sheet for a long, long time. right now on the equity markets, alicia levine with bny mellon, really good at dovetailing quantitative into the fundamental outlook on the market. alicia levine, get quantitative for me right now looking at something like price to cash flow, price to revenues, price to earnings. teaching ready to launch higher or are you still cautious? >> i actually am very optimistic. we had two major name changing events. we had the election, which probability-wise is going to produce a less activist government than the market probably would have been comfortable with in the form of split government, and even if the georgia race produces a 50/50 senate, you still have some conservative democrats that
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may not go whole hog for the whole progressive agenda. and then there is the vaccine. it is not so much that it may be available by the end of the year, it is what we knew, but it is the efficacy, which means people will be more likely to take it and you can get some sort of immunity faster. because if the efficacy holds up, therefore the chart on the s&p looks great, looks like it is about to power higher. it is tested. out thisthem working way towards 3600. looks like it is going to move higher. but one word of caution is if you look at the qqq's, it is making lower tides. so if i am going to be the skunk at the party, it is the qqq chart does not look as solid as the s&p does. and to the extent that these large cap tech stocks are producing so much of the price
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action in the s&p, you have to watch that, as well. jonathan: nasdaq peaked in early september. many people are asking how much risk there is at the index level if big tex gets in trouble. big tech did really well with the shutdown. big tech has done will without a vaccine. can it continue to do really well with a vaccine? >> right, so we think in the next couple of months, technically, the cyclicals and the value will outperform on a relative basis. but you still need tech to hang in there on some level. you cannot have one of those terrible days were nasdaq is down 4%, 5%, because the s&p will not be able to make progress then because tech is overrated so much on the index thever-weighted so much on index level. it just has to perform a little bit. , this is ard tactical trade because the fed
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is staying -- saying easing and raids are staying low, and even if the 10-year gets to 2%, which is really hard to imagine -- yields are still negative until they 10-year gilts to 2%. theou have a lot of room in trumpcare for the market moving higher. you cannot have tech follow out of bed, you cannot. because you will never get the index moving. jonathan: stick with me. i want to get to the european bond market quickly and pick up what is happening. 10-year yield just rolled over, down about five basis points. lagardeident christine speaking right now, alluding to her view that the pandemic emergency purchase program at the ecb is likely to remain the main ecb tool, along with -- this is important, that asset
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purchase program has a huge amount of bucks popped -- flexibility. get the governing council to stick with her and stick with that through 2021 and not just go back to the old ways, keep that flexibility, gives them a lot of comfort on the peripheral side of things. you take that headline and drop it into the periphery, and you bonds.italian tom: she is saying we will take in less pristine papers, so it is price up, yield down, right? tom: they will have the ability if they so wish to maintain that flexibility to lean into the periphery a little bit more, tom, and maybe not buy as many bunds. in march, they said we are not here to close spreads. that headline tells you everything we need to know. they are here to close spreads.
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they know, and this is a delicate dance playing out in europe much more cleanly than in the united states, they know that on the fiscal side, there still work to do, and they know to get the work done, they will have to issue a lot more debt. they're keeping interest rate cuts a whole lot lower. alicia levine is still with us. this is the story, isn't it? central banks are not going to remove themselves from the game in 2021. things have changed. it used to be the case that when things got bad, they would step in, and when things got better, they would step away again. >> it is also fuel for the market. the discussion of the average inflation targeting was precisely for the moment we are in today, when the expectations of growth pick up a notch, the expectation for inflation picks up a notch. and the announcement over the summer and september were precisely for this moment,
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saying to the market, we are going to stay put, and we're going to let growth take hold, and we need to heal the labor market. it was for moments like what we are in today. up, asn: great to catch always. alicia levine of bny mellon. tom, we have got a question. that consensus is so strong, looking at 2021. to reiterate, the roaring 1920's, market nirvana, everything is great. let's look at what is in front of our face, next couple of months, difficult. lisawhat are you, missing or something, giving me the gloom of lisa? jonathan: it is two different time frames and is important tom: but how many days ago was the world coming to an end? we are reacting to the news.
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what comes after the vaccine euphoria wears off? my answer is we are just closer to a vaccine. when the vaccine euphoria wears off. and there are many other vaccines to come. jonathan: yeah, and what happens once we get the vaccine? you will get that sudden rush of demand, the inflationary impulse coming back to the market, and then what does trend growth look like? i do not think trend growth adjusts that much. i think it will be lower, which is what a lot of people anticipate. we will need to adjust for the whole cycle. tom: another thing is trend growth of em. i have been taken by adxy. across the pacific rim, they're usually optimistic about em finally getting its act together. it is a fact, they are doing much better. jonathan: em looking good, and china at the epicenter appeared coming up, julie norman on the
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situation in washington, d.c. from london and new york this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: president-elect joe biden calls president trump plus refusal to accept the results of the election and embarrassment. the president will not allow his administration to cooperate in the transition of power, and biden is not getting the intelligence briefings that president-elects normally would receive. biden says the president's actions will not help his legacy. and president trump is quickly remaking the budget on leadership in the wake of the election. a day after he fired mark esper by tweet, two senior pentagon officials stepped down, and so did esper's former chief of staff. trump allies are taking acting roles. critic says it signals turmoil
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in military leadership. coronavirus is roaring back after a couple of months of the disease being essentially a rural problem. metropolitan areas are now averaging a daily record number of cases. that has meant rising cases in and around denver, detroit, and chicago. the virus is mounting a comeback around boston, newark, new jersey. bloomberg learned that airbnb's long-awaited filing for an ipo has slipped to next week. they planned to file on thursday, but it decided on the delay to keep from being overshadowed by the u.s. election. airbnb is planning to raise as much as $3 billion on its debut on the nasdaq. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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pres.-elect biden: vice president-elect harris and i,
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will do everything to ease the burden of health care on you and your family. i promise you that. i said i will protect your health care like i protect my own family. jonathan: president-elect joe biden there. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz is out today. we will talk politics and work through these markets. equal weight s&p on monday was phenomenal. small caps surging, nasdaq rolling off. s&p up 29 today, .8% up. updaq slip speculative bit, 154, advancing 1.3%. fx market, a dovish tone from christine lagarde. for the bondding market, italian 10-year yields lower, german 10-year gilts still lower. 51 basis negative.
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tom: equity market up .8%. nasdaq almost normal today, up 1.3%. we will see if that can sustain through the day and through the week, as whelp lots to talk about. bond markets closed here on remembrance day, veterans day, as well. but it is a good time to speak of the political moment. julie norman is at university studied,ondon, expert, and thought about conflict resolution. what is your prescription for the resolution and the conflict at this election? what is the path forward? >> we are seeing almost two different realities playing out. i think the biden team is playing it right by just moving ahead with the transition right now. they are not fueling the fire we are hearing from trump and from the tweets. but at the same time, we hear a lot of trump alleys, from bar
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r, from pompeo, they are still entertaining the allegations of voter fraud. so moving forward, it is a critical time for really getting our message to ensure that there is not an increasing threat to american security and democracy at this transition moment. away,ong ago and far senator goldwater of arizona was involved, minority leader of the 1974.john rhodes, since they got together and walked up to nixon and said it is over. who is going to walk up to president trump and say it is over? >> that is the big question right now, because we have seen mixed messaging from the gop. we have seen some more moderate romney, georgett w. bush, come out very publicly and congratulate biden and harris, really condemning the allegations of voter fraud. but at the same time, we still
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see a lot of support for trump right now within both the congress as well as within the white house and really some remarks from some aides run trump. yesterday, the post reported them saying what harm is there in humoring trump at this time, he is just making noise. but from a conflict perspective, it really is reckless. let people know that votes will be cast and biden will assume the presidency. this is just bringing tension and animosity and really making it possible that people will doubt future elections and doubt the electoral process, which could be long-term and difficult to repair jonathan: professor, they are taking their process most people are taking right now, essentially that this is president donald trump and we have heard this kind of thing before, let it go, yes, it is reckless, we do not agree, but
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ultimately, there are no risks that can materialize in the short-term. you brought up a long-term risk, and that is the democracy in the united states and the voting process and the legitimacy of it, an important issue that goes way beyond 2020 and 2021. can you help me understand the short-term risk factors that might materialize -- what are they? >> absolutely. at a transition time for all states, it is a time when states are a bit more vulnerable than usual to both internal threats and also external threats. and the u.s. has always had a very smooth transition of power, so it has not become an issue. i do not see it necessarily coming one now, but the u.s. is looking more vulnerable when a transition seems chaotic or unstable, as it currently does. it is also problematic when an incoming administration does not have access to the resources, the agencies, and especially the
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intelligence briefings. we even heard in the 9/11 commission report that the delays of george w. bush getting the intelligence briefing and the security briefings earlier on might have made the u.s. more vulnerable to those attacks in 2001. it does not mean anything is imminent, but it just means that transitions and smooth transitions help us on a security and intelligence front, and not having that makes us further vulnerable. julie, thank you so much. here on surveillance on radio and television, we do look at politics and international relations across all the market moves. it is a veryet, interesting equity market, particularly with those research reports appear jonathan: yeah come on the bond market specifically, tried to do two things at one here, anchor a
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program and read a speech from christine lagarde. doing it in english, fortunately come on the ecb website. talking about financing conditions for people, companies, and households, and it is a really interesting speech about the duration of policy supports, and i think what christine lagarde is trying to achieve this morning is set us up for 2021 and beyond, and perhaps at the next meeting of the ecb, it will not be as wille case of boost qe, it be about how long we're going to be in this game for. tom: mr. macron at the arc de triomphe this morning. i am looking at the money market screen on the bloomberg, negative interest rates on the 10-year and the france. how do the people of a nation work with negative interest rates? jonathan: with great difficulty, and i remember a conversation we unicredit aember of
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couple weeks back and is stuck with me. will we be able to engineer a recovery in the euro zone that leads to higher interest rates? we failed last time. in his response was we will likely fail this time. i am paraphrasing. my words, not his. but that is what he alluded to. the story is in europe, even when we get through this mess, trend growth will be so low that the ecb will not be able to go up in interest rates, anywhere near where they were 10, 15 years ago. tom: yesterday talking with mr. kaplan, it was not about the weekend after thanksgiving, but it was about him talking about two quarters in america and then improvement. is that tone the same in europe? i do not think so. jonathan: with lockdowns and the u.k., france, and germany, and other countries come as well? not part of the conversation in europe. from london and new york this money, good morning. tom keene with something extra to say.
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tom: have you heard from lisa? i have not. jonathan: i just got an email. tom: i did not get any mail, no love. jonathan: she is getting messages about how she is storing oil in her home, and she has been watching ellen partridge. there you go. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on bloomberg tv and radio. here is the price action. after a historic rotation monday and tuesday, but that a sector level and a regional level, we unwind some of that a little bit. if we look at the nasdaq, that is where the outperformance is. we advance 1.2%. the s&p 500 up .8%. the big tech story coming back a little bit in the united states. in china, pretty ugly. check that out on bloomberg or bloomberg.com. europe is where the underperformance is. i want to finish in europe on the bond board and get to the european bond market. take a look at italy following the ecb speech from christine lagarde. we are down five basis points on
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the italian 10 year to .75%. the ecb president not setting us up for the december meeting, but 2021 and beyond. the ecb in and around the game for a long time with loose monetary policy. tom: over the last 10 minutes? stronger on euroyen. euro on dollar 1.1765. thomas costerg joins us. he has been very cautious on the economy but you have to dovetail that into market performance. you have had a very articulate view on aggregate demand. what does that mean for the stock market? thomas: two things about the stock market. one is the economy and the second one is monetary policy. i must say we are in a world where monetary policy -- rates will stay low for a while and we
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may see more asset purchases, bonds, not equities, but still more liquidity going into the market. that is helping valuations. that is a fact. tom: as we mentioned 20 minutes ago, 10 minutes ago, the reality of a sustained at zero bound or a sustained negative interest rate. away from the fancy guys like you, what does it mean for the people of europe to see the product negative interest rates? thomas: the mood has shifted a bit on negative rates. i will note europe did not move further down into negatives after the coronavirus crisis. ,hey did more asset purchases more long-term loans to banks, but negative rates stayed where they are. there seems to be pushed back against negative rates in the global central banking community. we keep in mind sweden.
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moves away from negative rates and back to zero. in england they have been thinking about negative rates but it seems there are to negative rates. i must say the winds have shifted less in favor of negative rates globally and more to asset purchases and how to provide space to countries they can spend money in the economy to help support economies and go through the dark times of the coronavirus. jonathan: is that a change in the theory or has the vaccine development in the last couple of days change the approach, reduce the urgency? thomas: the thing is the debt is here. you have to carry the steps. i think rates will have to stay low for long. i do not think the vaccine, we were expecting a vaccine in 2021. maybe it comes earlier than expected, but big picture it
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will take time for the vaccine to be deployed. we still have many hurdles. most of europe is going into lockdowns. may soon seee lockdowns at the state level. i am watching new york city closely. the situation is quite different. i do not think they will let down the guard. i think they will continue to provide accommodation for the foreseeable future even if we have a vaccine and even if a vaccine is good news in 2021. jonathan: they have gone above and beyond what they did 10 years ago. the federal reserve and the credit market, the ecb within the credit market a number of years ago. rates are not going up for a long time. do we have centrally planned credit markets? is that what they are? if i'm an investor looking at what is on the horizon hoping things get better, is the
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outcome the same? credit spreads remain tight because these guys step back in and buy? thomas: i would argue we are in a soft mmt environment where there is pressure on central banks to keep rates low. we are not yet in the textbook mmt. in the textbook mmt approach the central bank completely loses independence for you plug them into the treasury, that is where the game changer would be. i do not think we are in that regime yet. we might be headed down that route, but it is more a question of several years rather than several months. if we go to the textbook version of modern monetary theory, that i think we have a shift in terms of the inflation picture. that is what i would watch. to what degree central bank start to lose their independence and to what degree the money starts to go away from the financial system to individual bank accounts. tom: what is the distinction
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between inflation dynamics of goods and services? thomas: that is the central question. the money is staying in the financial system. that is why you have low velocity money supply. that is also helping valuations. that is a line of thinking that says the stock is not putting the money to the individual bank account, and that is where you could have a regime shift. if you start to put the money into individual bank accounts, that is where you will have an inflation surge. i do not think we are there yet. what central banks are still doing is taking money in the financial system. tom: injecting money into the financial system which means a wall of money. we have a wall of money coming from institutions. i believe it is reported by strategist that there is a wall of money looking for a warm place. what does that money do given
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the incentives of the next six months? thomas: if you look at the macro economic picture, you have two stages. the first stages the near term and it will be tough. you have covid infection still up and rising strongly, especially in the u.s., and in 2021 you should have a cyclical recovery. the economy will bounce back. as an equity investor to look at the near term challenges or 2021? my feeling is equity investors are looking at 2021. on top of that, we have almost an assurance from central banks they are going to stay behind the curve. stillcentral banks believe in the trickle-down effect from asset prices to the real economy, even though the jury is still out on whether that works. the jury is definitely still out on that. we are talking about central banks. the federal reserve and the ecb.
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the bank of japan, too. i want to jump in with a call from socgen on turkey. socgen looking for a 400 basis point rate hike the next meeting. 1025 is the rate right now. another 400 basis point height. looking for a move on dollar lire. looking for that to come down to 692. it is a big move. tom: i have not done the math on what the lira does but your math is right. they will overshoot the requirement, which is modeled a 12% or 13%. they go to 14 so they do not have to do it two days later. jonathan: thomas costerg, come back into the conversation. how idiosyncratic is the turkey story and how many other ems are going through a similar theme? right there it the question comes back -- right.
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the question comes back to confidence. we in different markets are likely we have deep financial systems and people trust the financial systems. it may be less the case in turkey. rates do not mean you have to go out and be blinded about where you go and put your money. that is the key take away. he careful where you put your money. jonathan: thank you, great to catch up. thomas costerg talking about central bank rate calls. turkey,her still in according to socgen, looking for a hundred basis point height in the next meeting, a week tomorrow. headlines from angela merkel as well, we must prepare for a tough winter despite the vaccine prospect. the second virus wave is likely stronger than the first. that is the reality for your. the hope on the horizon. the reality on the ground, tough winter still ahead.
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tom: when i was coming in this morning, i cannot convey the reality that right now it is a pandemic. we have a contested election. all that is going on in the united kingdom. angela merkel speaking as well. we are underestimating -- we do economics, finance, we are a medical channel right now because things have shifted. hours, you spent the last couple of weeks and united kingdom and the continent, way ahead. this pandemic is very close to what it was like in march. jonathan: here is the question for a market participant. we have a huge hope on the horizon. we hope it develops an advantageous world. let's get to what is in front of us. how much bad news are you willing to ignore in the next several months if you are long cyclicals in the back half of 2021? tom: a lot, because corporations
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will adjust. that is the great lesson. we do the running joke about triple levers. the history of this job, and i was weaned on this in 19731974 in school and wondering out into the economy of 1975. the history of this is simple. corporations adjust. the bloomberg will adjust idea that lisa abramowicz is off today. jonathan: i am adjusting to the fact you are still in the 70's. i thought it was a little bit earlier than that. tom: jeff showed me the record album and said these guys were great. it was are you speed wagon. .o one knew who they were -- reo speed wagon. jonathan: we will play a song as we go to commercial break. lisa abramowicz is back tomorrow. looking forward to having lisa back. the last couple of days have
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been tough. you can be off tomorrow, off the day after. tom: i we use my vacation days so i can understand. jonathan: futures up 7%. this is -- futures up .7%. this is bloomberg. former federal prosecutors say attorney general william barr may make president happy with his election probe but they say it is unlikely to change the result. far has set a high threshold of the libraries -- of -- thearities for the pro may undercut support for joe biden. mike pompeo is not acting like a lame-duck secretary of state kerry in a speech at the ronald reagan institute he called the chinese communist party a whoset, leninist monster role is antithetical to human freedom.
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warnednt-elect biden has boris johnson not to compromise in northern ireland while pursuing brexit. joe biden real formed his support for the deal that put an end to the violence in northern ireland. official,to a british boris johnson promised the u.k. would uphold the agreement. the federal reserve expected to join the club of central banks to step up to fight climate change. the network for greening the financial system requires members to sign up for the paris kleiman accord. president trump withdrew the u.s. from the packed, but president-elect has pledged to rejoin. deutsche bank says working remotely is a privilege you have to pay for. the german lender is proposing a 5% tax for those who work from home and regular basis. deutsche bank says that could raise $40 billion a year in the u.s. and could help support low
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income and essential workers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i always respected all of my pandemic hasut the given me such a greater
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appreciation for the people i'm blessed to work with. business, we are getting things done. marsalis, twoon reasons we have played that clip. beer on "the open" we will catching up with kathy jones of charles schwab which may or may not result in kathy playing a little tune on her piano. look out for that. tom: i am so glad you bring that up. we do these things. let's make this clear. we are completely unrehearsed. jonathan and i -- jonathan: i do not think you need to be tell anyone this is unrehearsed. tom: i do not know what lisa is doing. she is 42 feet behind me hermetically sealed away. that wonderful moment was picked up by schwab international with some content they have.
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we thank her for playing better than the two of us will ever dream about playing. today?u have jonathan: kathy jones of charles schwab. piano special. i am stepping away. tom: goodbye. matters because that is what it is about. his father was election. there is no other way to put it, anluding starting out at older age, 12 years old on his instrument. i think of harris at the carlisle studying under marcella's years and years ago and it brought out a generation of people who reinvented jazz and drove it forward into the modern age. david rubenstein, peer-to-peer conversations. mr. rubenstein digresses away from the politics in the moment with the gentleman from lincoln center.
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what did you learn in speaking to winton marsalis? david: i learned his father had died, and his father was an incredible jazz pianist and alsoced four sons who were jazz musicians. , but hes the best-known was a classical musician as well. he want to bring me award for classical music the same year he won big grammy award for jazz. jazz is probably the most american type of music we have. invented in this country. personified by so many people in this country. hip hop was also invented here, but jazz is the most american form of music. which way would he like jazz to go? we talk of the death of opera. we talk of philanthropists
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trying to save classical music. which way does he suggest jazz will go? david: he thinks jazz needs to be better known and it is an acquired taste. he and other musicians are not able to perform as much because of covid. he did come back from a tour recently, but it was unusual. usually musicians are not able to perform right now because they're not live audiences. it is a sad situation for the performing artists in our country because a lot of them do not get income unless they perform. it is hard for them to perform. it is unusual situation because he is so well-known and doing so many different things. he worries about other jazz musicians and musicians who cannot perform. tom: tell us about the sanctity of copyright. i know blackstone has been involved. jazz musicians survive on copyright. the copyright rates in europe are much more artist friendly. does he feel people can get paid into the future? david: we did not quite address
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that, but we did talk about something important related to ist, which is that jazz something that changes a lot. when you are a jazz musician, you have copyrighted music but lot, you change what was written. it is a music form that evolves. it is not as easy to copyright in some respects. on the other hand, i feel that jazz music is probably not as well-known in all parts of the country as it is in new orleans or chicago or new york. it is incredibly popular outside united states as well. i want to point out he has dealt with racism, as all jazz musicians who are black have done, and even though he is famous, he does talk about the fact he still feels discriminated against, and he felt it growing up in the segregated south. although he is a famous
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musician, he is not escape the racism people of his race have suffered. tom: goldman sachs went exceptionally positive on 2021 and 2022. there is the noise of a vaccine. the small matter of an election we are contesting right now. does david rubenstein have an optimism like some of the strategists looking forward to school years? david: the vaccine news is positive and i think at some point in 2021, we will begin to get vaccinated sufficiently to enable us to go back to work. i think the election will get resolved in the not too distant future in some way. it is interesting to me, president trump is still contesting it, but i've often thought the best job in the united states is being a former president. you do not have to get blamed for anything and you can do whatever you want. if you're a former president and you could run again, that is a better job. if i were he i would say i might
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be a former president, i might run again. he might look at it that way. i hope this will be resolved in the not too distant future. tom: david rubenstein, thank you so much. peer-to-peer conversations. wynton marsalis in the future of jazz. look for that tonight at 9:00 on bloomberg. looking forward to that conversation. a data check of optimism, but a data check of normality. joe biden talks about normalcy. we have normalcy in the market. let me do the percentages. it matters today. spx up .7%, the dow up .5%, and the nasdaq up 1% on futures. that is called a normal day. we have not seen that in a good number of days. maybe that signal something on a veterans day with the bond market closed. the last quote i have on 10-year gilts is a .9753, getting closer
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to 1%. -- 10 year yields. the last curve steepening we had two79 basis points on the 10 spread. the dollar is stronger. i think of david bloom, formerly of hsbc, and others who have talked about resilient dollar. we had weaker dollar. the clarity of it all is simple. strong yen against weaker dollar. your again 1.2405. yen 120 405. ferro on on jonathan midmorning matters, jonathan will be talking about the important speech of christine lagarde which he took from french. i've not looked at that speech because jonathan's french is a little better. jonathan: pretty good.
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bon.c'est jonathan: they pulled me back in. you have another 40 seconds. you will get through this. you've got this. tom: can we just get my walker? ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile,
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london for our audience worldwide, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. 30 minutes from the opening belt with equity futures up 25 on the s&p. we begin with the big issue, the elusive rotation, or another head fake. >> rotation into value has started. >> tech stocks are getting hit. >> a little bit of unwinding going on. >> rotation into the stocks and names that have suffered from the lockdown. >> we've been waiting for the big value move. >> there's a possibility this will be further in the near term. >> we need to see inflation expectations holding up your >> interest rates rising, yield curve steepening. >> some expect the curve steepening. >> there will definitely be internal rotation. >> we will also see cyclical rotation switch back. >> the second half

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