tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 20, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EST
unts. she even beats her insurance price. good for you kate, good for you. goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. >> we are in a much worse place today then we were in the first half of october. >> you are not going to get a continuation of this straight upward movement. there will be a pullback. >> we are very much due for a tough time. >> the fed has been quite clear that they expect the federal government to hopefully provide more income support. >> all they really want is for congress to do its job, and that is not happening. >> even in supposedly the good places where there is reflation, central bank are worried. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. q there of jeffrey
ofto see geoffrey yu there bny mellon in our opening. with the new slow out of washington, how to get ready for ferro, do you think the secretary of treasury will be watching mr. powell's press conference? jonathan: i hope they speak before the press conference. these two need to get on the same side. it is not good to wake up ever to see the chairman of the federal reserve and treasury secretary on different pages on an emergency program that, let's be clear, has really helped keep financial conditions loose at a really tough time for the u.s. economy. i am surprised, maybe even shocked, that the market is where it is this morning based on the spat between those two individuals. tom: there are distractions in washington, but maybe it was beneath the radar off of
president trump's efforts to -- tolection 2020 lisa: move election 2020. it devolves to a market that looks like the fourth week of is taking myferro vacation days. lisa: how do you price the future with a present that is very much dynamic? this has been the conundrum, and frankly, we have priced in all the good news from the vaccine to the point that when we get an additional bout of good news like we got this morning from pfizer, seeking emergency authorization today to possibly start giving these vaccinations as soon as next month, the market doesn't respond. what it doesn't know is the scarring and effects of the near-term pandemic getting worse and what that might mean. tom: i don't get it. the summer this year, you're going from like four to like lake-- from lake four to
five, i'm walking vet bill somewhere, and jon is in italy somewhere. jonathan: things are locking down. it is different in that schools are still open. that is a different approach in the united kingdom compared to the united states, especially in new york city. europe is still about that fiscal stimulus plan at the eu level, which still hasn't been rolled out, and i don't think has had enough attention paid to it. tom: i agree. jonathan: hungary and poland aren't coming along for the ride, and they are ultimately going nowhere. weekat the bundesbank this , totally under the radar this week, saying we don't know if we want to do green debt. frro is going to do this -- ferro is going to do better on his property this morning, "the open."
look for that. the vix is impressive, seriously. 22.53, showing the optionality. if i had a wall, i would do better. jonathan: we can get you a wall. ferroikely -- like the wall. i can go on debt. it would be great. with a walker. that's why i don't do it. let's get started on radio and tv right now with james paulsen, with leuthold weeden group. he writes brilliant, smart notes, where there will be one phrase where you go, how did he think that up? option floor. we have an option floor within your bull market. what is an option floor? jim: i think we do. i kind of think the market, the overall stock market today, because of the vaccines, is a
little bit like a covered call, -- youu can be abl bull bn be a bowl, but if not -- not, if they if put a floor under this market and only selloff so much before it is going to bring buyers in, just looking at the present discount of value for 2021, the vaccine announcement, even though it isn't even here, and the sense that you know it is coming, i think gives you upside without as much downside as you had before the announcement, much like a covered call. jonathan: i think a lot of people share that view with you right now. i think many people are just uncomfortable being short going into what could be transformational, which make me wonder what it would take to see some real capitulation. what would it take? jim: i do think there's
2021 andss about bearishness in the short-term, and you almost wonder if it might work out the other way around. what if the market just runs right through this period where everyone is highly worried, and then maybe it stalls once we get to the spring or summer? in other words, it is sort of buy on the fear and sell on the trumpets when they come. i kind of wonder about that a little bit just because there is so much short-term bearishness and longer-term bullishness right now. lisa: is there anything the short-term that would affect your view longer-term, not necessarily with being a bull, but in terms of what you want to buy? certainly the pandemic, if the cases keeps urging and death rates go up, that is the biggest risk. there's no doubt about that. that could take the economy down if we have to do a complete shut
down again. i think the odds of that are low. one of the reasons i think the economy may do better than people think is you can't shut down what you have already shut down. we are shutting down restaurants, hotels, airlines, gyms that are already mostly shut down across most of the country. 75% of the economy or more is probably pretty impervious to this. they are already at home, whether we shut down tomorrow or not. i am little less worried about the economic fallout in the short-term than most people are overall, and i think that once those vaccines hit year, we are going to have a big year, 6% growth. what i don't know is how far ahead are we already pricing a lot of that in. tom: this is so important, this conversation we are having. i want to bring it to minnesota. you and i grew up where 3m was sure money. minnesota mining and manufacturing was minting money
because they always adapted and adjusted. there's that belief that corporations will adapt and adjust. is that more underpricing here? 's it all of corporate america basic equity stance is that equities will adapt to the cards they are dealt in the gloom? james: i totally agree with that. i think the pandemic has been a great demonstration of the adaptability of capitalism this country. where andnk back on how we have adapted what companies are doing to make things safer and to be able to a deadly pandemic in a fairly stated fashion in most cases, companies have adapted, not only that, they are finding new ways. we have food trucks in
minneapolis that have open restaurants during the pandemic, while other restaurants are closing. so i do think we find new ways. imagine what this pen to make would have been like 20 years ago had we not had the technology that we have, so that 75% of the economy can keep working from home. tom: do you perceive british companies as malleable, as jim paulsen and i perceive american corporations? do they adapt and adjust to things like brexit? jonathan: they are adjusting. never mind brexit. transformational side of capitalism has been pushed to one side as a result of this pandemic. when we come out of this comedy using we will have lost some dynamism in the american economy , and the european economy -- of this, do you think we will have lost some dynamism in the american economy, and the
european economy more so? james: i don't think so. with the opportunity of low rates that they have today, and we look a lot of borrowings they are taking down, but that is like a big injection of capital that they are going to use. they are sitting on a lot of liquidity, and i think as we get closer to this thing ending, they are going to be going, ok, we've got to up our staffs. we've got to go ahead and rebuild inventories. we are going to look again at our capital spending programs long-term. i think we are going to adapt and be quite dynamic after this pandemic. we are going to find a new way to deal with retail then we did before. we are going to find many new solutions after this pandemic. jonathan: i hope so. i really do. there.lsen, stay well
i can hear lisa screaming zombie on the sidelines. [laughter] lisa: there was a story on the bloomberg terminal showing that 20% at this point of large u.s. companies are considered zombies. basically, they cannot cover their interest payments their current earnings. that to me is shocking. yes, this is perhaps just a byproduct of the pandemic, but what does that do to long-term growth? why are we keeping these companies alive? jonathan: let me tell you, i don't think you can embrace the transformational aspect of capitalism during a pandemic. i think he would end up with a kind of economy that will not do well once you have a vaccine. i get it, around e-commerce and retail and all of those good things. when you're in the restaurant business, you still want the services around the city to be working and effective, and you still want that labor force to be ready to go. tom: this is why america has the
most liberal bankruptcy law in the world. we will fold our way out of this, like we have done in every other crisis back in the early 19th century. jonathan: coming up on this program, julie norman of the ever city college london. -- of the university college london. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. pfizer and biontech are asking u.s. regulators for emergency use authorization for the coronavirus vaccine. if the fda says ok i'm of the vaccine could be available next month for high-risk populations. earlier this week, the drugmakers reported that clinical trial data showed the shot was not if i percent effective in preventing the disease. inther legal step back president trump's bid to overturn joe biden's electoral victory. to a hand recount
completed wednesday, biden won georgia by more than 12,000 votes. president trump is now reaching out directly to michigan lawmakers to try to overturn the state's vote. the president will meet with republican leaders of the state legislature today. some trump allies have urged him to persuade legislatures in states he is contesting to overrule voters and give him the state's electoral college vote. one of america's top chocolate upending the new york market. hershey is taking an unusual step, directly sourcing a large amount of cocoa through the u.s. exchange instead of buying beans and the physical market. hershey saved millions in that deal, but sent delivery futures in december 2 a record level over the next contract. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.
keep them available, and that is pretty much where i am. jonathan: rafael bostick, the atlanta fed president come on little bit of tension we wake up treasury ande the federal reserve. from london and new york this morning, good morning. let's get you some price action. . a quiet morning, a quiet week in the grand scheme of things. unchanged on the s&p coming into friday. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1864. in the bond market, not much to her about here -- not much to talk about here. we are unchanged on the morning. tom: this is one of the great tools we use every day. this was invented 30 years ago. it is absolutely definitive. we have on the screens in front of us a global first-order condition headline dump. the latest headline i have on
michigan and the president is the michigan secretary of state, lawmakers have not confirmed their meeting with the president today. i am not sure what the actual fact is, but that is the latest headline i have away from expected last evening as well. julie norman is at university college of london, and of course, she has studied the t of our tumul political system. going back to rutherford b hayes, a completely different election. what is the comparison you see now as this president speaks to state legislators and two election officials? julie: i think it is pretty unprecedented, obviously in any recent times. as you noted, pretty far back in history as the latest we have seen anything like this. this so far is just an invitation. we haven't heard of a confirmed
meeting yet, but the fact the president is reaching out, putting pressure on state legislators, presumably to have sway over the pickup electors, maybe -- over the pick of electors, may be contrary to the popular vote, would be unprecedented and spark uproar that we have not seen yet. that would be a tipping point. tom: we are honored at bloomberg to have a legal team that is outstanding. julie, do you see that the judiciary system intrudes into this action and process of the president, or are they really removed from this specific discussion? julie: right now, i think we see the judiciary has seen that all of the attempts to push this election into the judiciary system have not gone anywhere. the courts have maintained their integrity and pushed back, and
most of them had no substantiation behind them. we don't see anything taking root even at the state level. that would push things up to the supreme court. right now, i think the judiciary is staying independent, and rightly so. jonathan: do you have a deadline in mind of when this just stops? politically speaking, it could carry on with these theories for a long time, but what is the deadline to actually go through the process of taking it through the courts? we will see going into december 14 when the electors actually and cast their ballots, and if those ballots are cast in a way that aligns with the popular vote, i don't see the courts necessarily getting involved in any way. if at that point there are still questions, challenges, that is the point that i think there would be any kind of judiciary intervention, but i think that is quite unlikely at this point.
we see trump doing a lot of what he is doing to delay the process, to cast doubt on the legitimacy, but to actually move it into the courts with any kind of outcome would be quite a lot. lisa: there has been silenced by a lot of republican leaders, by almost all of them. i am wondering what this means for the republican domain going forward. does this mean there is going to be in adherence to a trumpism well beyond the trump presidency? julie: it certainly looks that way, doesn't it? what we have seen is that the republican officials who have spoken out against trump have been mostly those in nonelected positions, and nearly all its officials in election positions seemed quite concerned still about not alienating trump as a person, but more over recognizing there is still a lot of support for his messaging among the gop, and that is just not a risk they are willing to
take just yet. tom: what are you going to study this weekend? with all of this turmoil, you are the pro here. what are you going to focus on this weekend? julie: what i am actually looking at, a lot of my work takes place overseas and in places like the middle east, in deeply divided societies. me and some of my colleagues are trying to understand what drives divisions and some of those places, and what we can apply from those to the united states right now, and also what prevents conflict in those places and might prevent conflict and smooth the transition in the u.s. right now. jonathan: that is quite a comparison. before we let you go, is that just hyperbole, or do you think that is a comparison worth pursuing? julie: i definitely wouldn't say it is a direct comparison, but more what we look at in terms of indicators for deepening othering, aversion to other
political parties, all of these things that over the long-term term, create societal divisions. those are trends we are seeing in the u.s. right now. i definitely do not take an alarmist approach. but i do see these deepening social divisions that our reflect it up some other places i have worked, and i think a lot of people in the u.s. are concerned about that right now. jonathan: do you see that in other western democracies as well? julie: we do. right now, even in the u.k., and europe, there is some of that. i would say the u.s. really is at a different point. sense of lot of the that in europe has lessened in but we seethe u.k., two different kinds of america that are not that far apart on issues, but have these divisions that are becoming deeper rather than bridged.
jonathan: a conversation we would love to continue another time. ,ulie n -- julie norman university college london professor come on the divisions that have been there for a long time. tom: she said that with great humidity. all it comes down -- with great humility. all it comes down to is are we becoming like sudan, and any other countries. jonathan: which is ridiculous. lisa: and that's not what she was saying. she was saying what lessons can be drawn from that. tom: i agree, i am the one doing hyperbole. i get that. jonathan: i get. tom: lisa doesn't get it. but the issue here is you look at the newspapers, the bloomberg.com, and it is original in america right now. that is a fact. is upan: torsten slok next. i wonder what he has to say on that? apollo management's chief
jonathan: from london and new york, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action. the news flow impressive, the price action a bit of a snooze. the s&p 500 down .1%. the nasdaq low but firmer, the russell software. the division between the two. that is where the story has been. over the last month the nasdaq up 8%. double the return of the small caps. this morning the small caps a little bit softer. caps, the cyclicals have done nicely. the bond market has not come along for the ride. we talk about that many times this week. i think it is worth repeating. 10 67read between two and basis points. that is exactly where we are right now. points, 30's at
1.54. you might've had the cyclical move. the rotation is the cyclical equities. not the move in the bond market quite the same way. if you want the trade to work, you need the bond market to come with it. you need the real yield with us as we moved to one of jonathan properties. that is a greater negative real yield through the week. i do not want to make too much of that, but is worth noting as we go to ferro's property this afternoon. apollo management, in a weak moment, took one of the best economists in the street and dragged him over to the dark side of asset management, economic analysis. they stole torsten slok from deutsche bank. we are thrilled first in slot can join us. slok are thrilled torsten can join us.
how is it different being an economist for a massive global bank versus being an economist for asset managers? torsten: the data and the analysis is identical. trying to think about what markets are doing and where they are going. the analysis ends up being 100% the same. in that sense the job we all have of trying to think about where is the economy going and where financial markets going is the same for all of us. lisa: you are at a cross-section at an interesting we have robert kaplan coming out saying he could expect a contraction in q4 because of the worsening pandemic, and then jim polson who just said he expects a 5% expansion in q4. a bullish attitude and markets versus the bearishness of economists. where you come out in this divide that seems to be growing? torsten: what is important to watch as the high-frequency data.
yesterday, as you talk about yesterday -- more people are becoming unemployed. there is something going on in the economic data. the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the employment rate for november would begin to go higher. we are still waiting for the vaccine. there is time before the vaccine comes. we have more conversation of whether there'll be a second generation of vaccine. there are question marks around how vaccine will be deployed. the short answer to your question is in the short-term, it is very difficult -- is very different -- normally you have a lot of certainty about the short-term and not much about the long term. here we have a much better idea of what things will look like in 2021 then we have the next two months. jonathan: i underestimated the resilience of the u.s. economy and how quickly it would bounce back and many other people did as well. are we repeating that as we work
away through winter? torsten: it is the case the u.s. economy is more resilient than any other economy. we have more competition across all markets than any other country in the world. in that sense the dynamism of the u.s. economy is not being impacted dramatically at the moment. that being said, the cyclical movements around that structural issue continue to be riskier in the short-term and that is why high-frequency indicators of mobility has to go down. we have some rollovers. even new york city data has started to show more weakness in the last few weeks. we are little bit worried about where the high-frequency data is taking us. jonathan: let's talk about the policy prescription. often on programs like this you talk about speed and size. let's talk about composition. where you would target the stimulus. where does it need to go? torsten: it is highly unusual,
as you also just spoke about, that you have the federal reserve and the central bank asking for aggressive action. as you know, i used to work at the imf, and the main lesson is the central bank should be telling to spend less money. now you have in europe and the u.s. the central bankers almost pleading to spend more money. please cut taxes. it is an unusual signal and tells you housing of get the messages from the federal reserve at the moment. it comes from the fact we are still 10 million jobs below where we were in february. in that sense the holes in the economy is still deep and that is why the need for physical expansion -- for fiscal expansion is so significant. is serviceas moved sector inflation has become service sector disinflation.
what are you advising apollo management? does it sustain? does it become more disinflationary? or do we assume a reversion to the 3% level? torsten: this is a really important point because the shop to the economy with this pandemic came to the service sector, restaurants, retail. we saw significant declines in prices and employment in the service sector. that is now revamping so that is why we are seeing a reversal. over the last 20 years, if you separate cpi, it has basically been zero the last 20 years. all of the inflation has come from the service sector. that is why the unusual situation with the service sector being a driver of inflation to the downside, not to the upside come is something important for the inflation outlook that we've had this compositional shift where the service sector is playing more cyclical role. tom: are you framing the
american economy as a return to previous trend or are we establishing a new level of trend that will be a lesser level? torsten: in trillions of dollars we are still $1.3 trillion in terms of how far away we are good from getting back to the trend we've had pre-pandemic if you want to fill the whole that is been traded in the last two to three quarters, then we need something like $4 trillion. this gives you an idea of the cometude of fiscal need into question is do we want to get back up to the trend line or do we want to fill up the hole completely. how quickly do we want unemployment back to the 3.5% we had in february? all of this will depend on the speed of vaccine and depend on this issue we also talk about, if we will get another stimulus or not. the idea that before the end of this year or sometime in the beginning of the new year. lisa: as we try to plug this
hole by borrowing money, there's a question of the overhang of debt. the unbelievable expansion of debt globally over the past nine months to plug this hole, what that will do to debt going forward. i'm speaking to our conversation about zombie companies. 20% of the large u.s. companies considered zombies. what does that do to long-term growth in the united states? do you think it is adequately priced in. torsten: what has been repeatedly set for several years is if we have a bigger share of companies that are ultimately more unproductive and using resources, using workers, then you do run the risk that it begins to have macro economic expectations. beyond that comes the other answer to your question. if you have a significant increase in the amount of u.s. treasuries outstanding, what should you be watching? you should be watching for risks of talking about downgrades to the sovereign of the u.s..
u.s. sovereigns already on negative watch. you should also be looking more broadly at demand and supply in the treasury market. so far everything is fine, but when you look at sniffing actions from the federal reserve , there is important questions about demand and supply and treasuries we need to think about over the coming months. jonathan: what are you optimistic about next year? torsten: i am optimistic about the vaccine and i think it will work. this is an unusual situation where there is more clarity about 2021 than the rest of 2020. that is making it difficult when you sit with your spreadsheet and try to put together your forecast for the global economy. it makes it quite complicated to think about will markets trade on the bad news in the near term or will markets look through that and focus on the vaccine next year? that is why there is still arrest things will be a bit bumpy and that few months before we have the final answer on the
vaccine, whether this is something that will help everyone or be as helpful as we are all hoping. jonathan: wonderful to catch up and great to see you in the new seed. torsten slok, now of apollo management. we are hearing a little bit more from the federal reserve. this is from the chicago fed president speaking on cnbc in the last couple of minutes. he said "the emergency facilities have been very helpful." he calls the treasury decision on the fed programs "disappointing." the tension is starting to build as the day progresses. tom: mr. mnuchin scheduled to be on the death star, maybe we will see that coming up this morning. we will see where we are friday into the weekend. it is a movable thing. the president has tweeted at least eight times this morning about the themes he is focused on. nothing to state about it. nevertheless we can state the president has greeted the beautiful day in washington. jonathan: there is an uncomfortable calm in the markets.
inative about two-point tent the s&p 500 -- negative about .2 in the s&p. if i told you yesterday when we are talking about high-yield and the price incentive standing on the sidelines, if i told you this would play out the next 24 hours, where would you expect the market to be? lisa: i would expect there to be more of a disruption. there is a question of whether this could get expanded next year. joe biden could potentially increase this program the federal reserve, reinstating it. there is a question of how useful it might be. there's a conversation about whether the fed should be involved in credit markets at all. the idea it could be stripped from them, and that dissidents with two heads of major agencies, that is what i think would be alarming to markets. jonathan: lisa complained when they stepped in.
complaining -- lisa: i think there is a debate. carry on. jonathan: i know which side of the debate you're on, we all do. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am stepping away. tom: i am just doing fleets out on twitter. jonathan: how is that going? tom: i am on instagram. i am instagram husband on twitter. jonathan: instagram on twitter? lisa: what is going up -- what is going on? atheyan: up next, james of aberdeen standard investment. this is bloomberg. ritika: if the fda gives the green light the coronavirus vaccine from pfizer could be used in the u.s. next month on high-risk populations. the drugmakers say they will file today for an emergency use authorization. earlier this week they said a file -- a final analysis of clinical trial data showed the
shot was 95% effective at preventing the disease. anotherp campaign lost one. a federal judge refused to block georgia from certifying its election result. a hand recount shows joe biden one in georgia by more than 12,000 votes. earlier the judge throughout the -- a trump campaign call the bluff on its own suit in michigan, falsely claiming it had stopped the states about certification. tope is a split between the two u.s. economic policymakers. secretary steven mnuchin called on jerome powell to return money for several fed funding program that relied on treasuries backing. minutes later the fed set out its own message, in purging -- encouraging all of the lending be kept in place. bloomberg companies do not need loans, they need grant money from congress. congress is getting closer to the $1.5 trillion spending bill that would avert government
withdrawing support now would be like closing of textbook during the war. santander speaking to bloomberg. later would be cheap -- later we will be speaking to chet nayak -- chetan aya. the winter of our discontent comments earlier this morning this will be an important conversation. one of mr. pharaohs -- one of mr. ferro's many properties. we welcome you to a narrow conversation. we take a wonderful gas to usually talks bigger and broader and note they say one single thing and we go narrow. we do that with james athey of aberdeen standard investment looking at broader investments. , in your important comments on china and the idea
of china with negative interest rates. is china becoming europe-like? good morning. i guess you're referring to the chinese euro bond issue? it gets technical and complicated and confusing for non-bond investors or non-geeks, but what you are buying his european interest rate risk with chinese credit risk thrown onto the top. while it may feel like from a logical perspective you should be able to equate euro currency a eurocgp with denominated chinese euro bond issue, what we have seen in emerging markets more broadly and what we see here is that is not necessarily the case because the interest rate outlook in europe is vastly different to that in china. tom: you never have to apologize iness in the bond market.
i am bad and lisa is worse. china is not italy. china is not the u.s.. china go shopping in europe to do debt in a euro denomination. am i right that selected maturities had a negative interest rate? that is the price up? that is massive demand, isn't it? james: exactly. if your european investor your home currency is euros. you cannot escape the fact that you face a negative interest rate environment. all sorts of issues from around the world. if you do so on an unhedged basis, it is not a fair comparison. when he start to hedge away that risk, interest parity says you start to hedge away the outlook. if someone around the world starts to issue in the european bond market and you see them as a credit worthy issuer and they come somewhere attractive to europe-based credit worthy issuer's, that is something you will look to invest in as a
logical extension of your home interest rate environment. lisa: one reason i was excited when i saw we were going to speak with you today is you have had a realistic outlook on credit worthiness at a time of uncertainty economically for corporations globally. i am wondering your response to this morning's news about a growing rift between the treasury department and the federal reserve over the extra money that went toward buying corporate bonds and municipal bonds. it raises the question and a key question. how much of a backstop have these fed programs been to credit prompting the low yields we have seen today? james: thanks for using the world -- the word realistic rather than something more pejorative, possibly miserable. tom: early in the week is when she goes pejorative. james: caught her on a good day then. when i studied economics, economics was the study of the
efficient allocation of scarce resources. i would like to believe money is still a scarce resource and governments must choose where to put their resources. to me it seems there was a lot of money backing those programs, which had gone unused, and there is a lot of economic need within the u.s. economy rather than within u.s. financial markets. to make that choice and say there is nearly $600 billion we could deploy in the domestic economy without going through political rigmarole that might be a more appropriate, more efficient allocation of those resources. i think that is a reasonable thing if we get into sticky situations further down the line. treasury can choose to appropriate funds to back those programs. this does not preclude that occurring. how much of those programs backstop markets to this point? i would say they've been incredibly effective. nobody wants to fight the fed. don't fight the fed has been
blindly following the fed for many investors. i that they have been married -- i think they've been very effective. tom: thank you for being with us, particular those comments i negative you are issuance with china. he is with aberdeen. it is an extraordinary friday. if we did not have all of the washington stuff going on and election 2020, it would still be extraordinary. it is not just about the politics. lisa: now. does the cross current -- no. it is the crosscurrents. it is stunning. tom: i cannot believe he got that line in. lisa: you can say it. i think you do have the economic reality, you have the political noise, and it is interesting to me on the election front, georgia coming out, the election will be certified with joe biden being the winner of that state at 10:00. we are hearing that being reported by cnn. markets have moved on.
i find this interesting. washington, d.c., the beltway has not, but markets are moving on they are looking to policy and looking to the end of the pandemic next year. tom: it is interesting to see. it is fascinating. you see something obscure like what james eighth the -- james about -- like what james athey's is talking about. we talk of crosscurrents and the way we cross current in the shop is it is all jonathan ferro from 9:00 on. jonathan, what you have at 9:00? ahya of: i have chetan morgan stanley. evan brown ofave ubs. conviction call is a weaker dollar through 2021. we have to talk about that. if we get synchronized global growth and the idea behind risk appetite, i can get behind the
weaker dollar with you. the vaccine is a bit more fuel for the idea. tom: i was not being serious about that. tottenham, manchester city, what you think? jonathan: they gave. i think city is in a bit of trouble if they do not beat tottenham tomorrow. defense?he tots have a jonathan: i love how educated you've become on this. they have a great strikeforce. arsenalws more about than anyone. lisa: the gunners? i am looking at my screen, i am looking at markets. but carry-on. radio, we have a breaking news banner in red for arsenal. that is how much we accommodate lisa. seriously folks, jon ferro and
london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. down about .2%. we begin with the big issue. a new stimulus dispute brewing on capitol hill. steven mnuchin and jay powell clashing over the fate of some of the fed's emergency support programs. the treasury secretary preparing to let several of those facilities require -- expire, requesting chair powell return some of the funds, telling bloomberg "the economy has responded strongly but there are still areas of the economy that need more support. that is why i'm encouraging congress to reallocate this money." the fed quickly responding, saying "we prefer a full suite of emergency facilities established on the pandemic continue to serve as a backdrop for our still strange and vulnerable economy." all of this coming amidst increasing infections and re