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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 23, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EST

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>> the nightmare scenario would be if the unemployment rate begins to go higher. >> equity volatility and uncertainty remains elevated. >> in the very short-term term, we are very much due for a rough time. >> if we take a long-term perspective, we have a pretty supportive market. >> we are going to have a big year, 6% growth. >> the fed has been quite clear they expect the federal government to hopefully provide more income support. >> they really want congress to do with job, and that is not happening -- to do its job, and that is not happening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." and keep her being with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. -- thisan important our is an important hour. will join us later, carmen and vincent reinhart. morning,at we see this the only thing that matters. dollar out to new weakness. jonathan: dxy taking out the lows of early september. that is the dollar index, heavily weighted towards this goal currency. the euro-dollar nicely through $1.19. another monday with a cyclical tilt. small caps outperform big tech, largely off of some positive vaccine news. haddownside surprises we've in the economic data over the last week, we need to pay attention to that. i'm excited to hear what david
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has to say about that. tom: let's frame that right now. i look at the 5-5-year forwards. the answer is i've got disinflation in the united kingdom, a little bit of a rolling over of disinflation trend in the united states, and is some noland right now. kind of: the wrong upside surprise. that is the labor market still, with a lot of slack and a lot of work to do. tom: we mentioned earlier the biden adminstration transitioning over to a slow down q1 and the recession word floating around. i don't want to overplay that too much. we are going to talk to rosenberg hear about the linkage of yield, interest rates, and all of that. give us the brief this morning. how tight is that spread of credit debt versus full faith and credit? lisa: if you look at investment
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grade credit, you are looking at the tightest spread since august, getting close to the tightest of the year. investors are more willing to lend to companies, even riskier ones, if they believe there is a vaccine that will bring the economy back to some sort of normal. we debate what that is, but faster growth ahead. when you talk about this inflationary trends and low yields, with treasuries having their best week last week since august, is the question of what is the consequent of all of this debt on markets and growth going forward. that will be a drag on growth. how does that factor into inflation? david: how about the idea -- tom: how about the idea of stimulus? what do you see in your reading? jonathan: if you want to negotiate, you've got to negotiate clearly with an objective to get a deal. otherwise, what is the point? you can't ask someone to put aside their differences and negotiate on your terms. that's not how it worked.
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if this is going to be a republican senate be on january, you have to deal with a republican senate, and this republican senate doesn't want a deal beyond $500 billion. if you know this economy needs fiscal stimulus, $500 billion is the number to get it done quickly. tom: a lot of talk this weekend about 2020. i thought politico had a particularly good article about all of the difficulties republicans face two years out. for years atrg, merrill lynch, held the high ground on price target change. he was absolutely brilliant and hugely read, moving on to good work in canada and now rosenberg research, their chief economist and strategist. toid rosenberg, i want you filter disinflation into what yield does. is it just about demand for paper, price up forcing yields down? david: look, i think there's a
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whole variety of things that go into bond yield determination. the expectations on the fed and real rates, inflation expectations. i am in the camp that thinks we are probably in a range. i am amazed of people who think the 10-year is going to go back to 2%. i don't think that is going to happen. think there is still going to be globally a downward pull on treasury yields because i think inflation expectations, given the size of the outlook, are going to come down over time. if you take a look at the world, take a look at the average aaa yield, it is barely above zero. in the u.s., you've got at least in the0 basis points, so land of the blind, the one i'd king. one-eyed man is
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jonathan: it is about the post-covid world and defining what is normal. many people seem to think that post-covid with a vaccine, treasury yields have no business south of 1%. are you pushing back against that? david: i am pushing back against that. what is your expectation of what the fed is going to be doing? forecast of the 10 year yield has to be some expectation of what short-term is going to be doing over a certain horizon. the fed has already told you that they are not going to start to raise rates into inflation gets above 2%, and for us to return to full employment. that is going to take a long time as well. on top of that, there is no doubt we are going to get a couple of quarters of pent-up demand once the vaccine is broadly distributed. that is going to happen.
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we are going to get a couple of quarters of pent-up demand, and then what does the world post-covid look like after that? fromver got the inflation 2009 to 2019, despite all the stimulus, despite the fed. the reality is that the same thing, the fundamental secular developments, have nothing to do with covid, that brought us to low interest rates and low growth. age and demographics, how has that changed? you are going to have the reinhardts on. i hope they will talk about how this massive -- how these massive covid deaths are going to be a constraint for years to come. how do you get inflation out of that? 30d yields may go up 25, basis points, and then come right back down again because the same fundamental is -- fundamental forces that brought us down in the last cycle are
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going to be the same forces that drive yields back down toward zero in the next number of years. lisa: this is fascinating to me, at a time when a growing number of strategists expect the federal reserve to increase their long dated bond purchases if they are meeting left -- long dated bond purchases at their meeting next month. thathould the fed be doing if you are right and yields are going to remain low because the economy is just not going to grow that quickly? david: that is just another form of what they used to call operation twist. is going what the fed to go that route that quickly. it is on its 10 year treasury note yield that has broken out in a range, really in the top end of the range in terms of the stock market that has gone up from the lows. that is basically the
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threat that will always be there. if bond yields become unhinged, the fed will come in hard and becauseer-term yields that would be a form of financial market tightening that was cause mortgage rates to go up. it would then detract from the positives in the economy, which has been housing. i think that is an ongoing threat, just to know that the fed can come in. it is like you were talking about credit spreads before. existsowing that threat is what has caused investors comfort to go in and add on risk in corporate credit. it is very similar at the long end of the curve, where you might be comfortable taking on duration risk knowing that the fed can do this at any point in time. whether they do it or not, who knows? but that is still out there. that helps out the long end of the curve. tom: you mentioned the reinhardts, and we are thrilled
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they are with us later in the hour. pretty gloomy assessment. you are not a gloomy guy. if you equity markets do get reinhardt caution and gloom? look, we had the worst recession since the 1930's. ofhad a one-month drawdown 35% in the stock market, and then we bounced right back. ton you go back on, data april -- back on, data, the markets already started to rally. i think that mantra of don't fight the fed, there is no alternative, all these things i used to roll my eyes at, it seems to have worked in terms of creating confidence in sentiment. it is a confidence letter market, a sentiment led market. when we take a look at the pe multiple on 2022 estimates, it
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is 18. i remember when i started, and 18 multiple and trailing would have been unbelievably expensive. in 18 multiple on two-year forward earnings, the market is still cheap area that is the mentality of the marketplace. you have the fed saying we will pump the system with liquidity, and so long as you have this belief that the vaccines will return us to the old normal, which is not my view, than the stock market may well continue to surprise on the upside. i am not bullish on the market, but that is the narrative that won the day over the past 6, 7 months. jonathan: the old, old normal a few crises ago. fantastic to have you with us on the program. david rosenberg there of rosenberg research. last week, we talked about an equity market pricing in this story of hope. point --n rosenberg's
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-- twod rosenberg point, thiserg's market may look like the same market for a while. tom: right now, the emotion is on this horrific pandemic, but it could really go for quite some time. jonathan: up next on this program, isaac built and ski -- isaac boltanksy, compass point research. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. another promising development in the fight to end the coronavirus pandemic. a vaccine developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented a majority of people in a large trial from getting the disease. it stopped an average of 70% from falling ill. that is below the high bar set by pfizer, turner, but
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effectiveness did rise to above 90% for one of two testing regimes. joe biden plans to name long-term advisor anthony blinken secretary of state. he served as national security advisor and deputy secretary of state. jake sullivan is likely to be named national security advisor. in the u.k., chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak says he will increase spending this week, trying to shore up the economy in the midst of a resurgence of coronavirus. the focus of the spending would be on the pandemic. plans to assemble key components for google service at the factory. it's facility was unveiled too much fanfare in 2018, but it succumbed to delays and switched directions several times after
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local officials cut subsidies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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timefrankly do think it is -- well, it is past time to start a transition, to at least cooperate with the transition.
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i would rather have a president that has more than one day to prepare, should joe biden end up winning this. end upn: should he winning this. that was the diplomatic way of approaching this. from new york and london this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this monday morning. we advance the cyclical tilt once again on a monday off the positive vaccine news, this time from astrazeneca and oxford university. you will hear about that more from prime minister boris johnson. euro-dollar $1.19. in the equity market, up 19, collet 20. there's a lift in treasury yields, up about three basis points in about an hour and 30 minutes. we get pmi in the united states. what is it looking at given the
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downside to prices we've had so far? tom: i'm not a fan of pmi data, but i do take your point that right now, pmi data is important. right now, isaac boltansky with us. you heard the senator from minnesota trying to manage the story forward. , if we were to have meetings of a biden adminstration transitioning, and republicans in the senate, what moves the needle are disaffected republicans. are they out there. isaac: i think that there are undoubtedly republicans who truly believe that the president should avail himself fully of the legal system in front of him. is i believe the reality right now, the president is seeking salvation through litigation, and they're just has been no sign whatsoever that any
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of those attempts will shift the outcome in a single state, let alone the entire electoral college. but we have seen over the weekend is a slow but steady stream of republicans saying either that the president-elect should begin getting these security briefings, or just out right that president-elect biden won the election. lisa: there seems to be a little uncertainty about whether -- there seems to be little uncertainty about whether joe biden will become the president come but there is a question about cooperation to get any sort of deal done not only in the lame-duck session, but also come january. how much has joe biden's theform been threatened by complete dissonance from washington, d.c. over who even won the election at this point? d.c. --ac: isaac: --
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isaac: d.c.'s people and process, which makes this transition period so important. it is about getting the people in place. right now we have a process due to the general services administration, the federal agencies that has responsibility for effectively starting the transition process, not certifying bidens victory yet. there are really nitty-gritty things here that impact this. first and foremost is you are struggling to get some of the fbi background checks done on some of these people, so the big picture for me is this is slowing what needed to be an exceptionally seamless transition, given that we are facing a global pandemic and economic suffering. so i have to ask myself the question, how much will washington trip on its shoelaces? because it is not just this transition. it is also secretary mnuchin's decision with the senate. jonathan: i think at this
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moment, it is probably the longest transition in a long time -- the hardest transition in a long time. we are about to go a massive vaccination effort, and i wonder what that looks like. when you speak to people in washington, have you got clarity on what that looks like or needs to happen between now and january 20 to make that as soon as possible -- as smooth as possible? isaac: there is undoubtedly optimism regarding what is going on on the vaccine front. we have seen now three different kinds about the science and the has driven that, but distributing these vaccines in a timely and efficient manner is going to be a herculean effort, even when you have all parts of washington rolling together, and right now we don't. parts of washington simply aren't rowing at all, and i am itply concerned about how
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will actually impact the role of the vaccine. there needs to be more clarity and more concrete steps in getting personnel in place and ramped. tom: i am looking for a catalyst to get off the needle here. article ond a great the senate race of 2022. let me cut to the gentleman from ohio. is portman somebody who is going to unilaterally say to mcconnell, enough, let's go? or does he not have the power to do that? it is almost concerning to be talking about 2022, but those races in the senate will drive what i believe will be majority mcconnell's thinking. he wants to be the majority leader for the remainder of his term. tom: we are running out of time. is it going to be december thinking?
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isaac: i think there is going to be a brief period of legislating. you are going at progress on tops of cabinet positions, i.e. brief window for legislating on fiscal stimulus, maybe even ero, but ultimately the fiscal hawks return, dead l ock returns. jonathan: is that popular with the electric? is fiscal conservative and popular -- with the electorate? popular? conservatism im: i think you see -- isaac: think you see the overall shift hawks return, as long as we can get a narrow, targeted fiscal stimulus done, he was -- targeted fiscal stimulus done, it is easier to
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fall into that fiscal hawk branch. jonathan: thank you. the echo of coming out of the last crisis is pretty loud, thinking about what the future might hold here in the coming months and years with a split government on the fiscal front. tom: we've had times where this is broken. people have gone through and protested, really railed against the majority, and i wonder, how does that happen this time around? not only a majority in the senate, the house, and mr. biden setting his tone, i think the uncertainties here are way more because we are all fascinated by the transition. jonathan:jonathan: i agree, but don't you think this pandemic has changed the conversation? tom: absolutely. jonathan: 500 billion dollars is now considered conservative. tom: and i keep going back to hospitalizations. those numbers are grim. no other way to look at it. jonathan: coming up, world bank
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.hief economist that is coming up shortly here on bloomberg, live on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.
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jonathan: live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." a little bit of cyclical appetite, little bit of vaccine optimism. the equity market has a lift. up i-20. by 20.cine -- up the russell outperforms. the rustle up .9%. here is the bond market story. a downside surprise on retail sales. upside surprise on jobless claims. yields lower. this morning we push higher. what are the limits of these moves? that is a question for us going forward. given the amount of debt, our tolerance for higher interest rates, how much of that has been reduced? by three basis points on the 10 year. key levels and key data to keep in mind.
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august 26 was the post-pandemic high in the oil market. we are within one dollar of that in wti, $42.85. august 31 was the low for the dollar index, we took out that level this morning. 1.19, just through short of that at .18 98. the pound advancing as well. and go dollar weakness back to levels of summer. can we hold them? can we push through? liftno question about the with brent pushing through. this is a joy. we have always prided ourselves in bringing you the best in economics. in the summer, when everyone writes the best in economics can be 1, 2, five essays, books and articles. this year was easy. carmen reinhart and vincent reinhart wrote a tour de force for foreign affairs magazine and
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made headlines in economics community with the pandemic depression. we are thrilled the world bank chief economist could join us, ,nd vincent -- and mr. reinhart chief economist. congratulations on putting together this essay. how did you piece it together? carmen, did you say vincent, we have to write this, or vincent, did you tell carmen we have to do this? you start. how did you generate this important essay? carmen: vincent and i have been writing together for a long time. wrote for thee kansas city fed, for the jackson next 10ference what the years after the global financial crisis look like. it was taking stock of the .ftermath of major shocks
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this certainly classifies as a major shock. leavekinds of events lasting consequences. tom: right. theme where is the we came together. tom: let us drive the story forward. i cannot say enough about a full read of this article in foreign affairs. how do we escape this depression, and if we have a global depression, his large stimulus the only answer? vincent: the sad thing is this is the third time we wrote this article. for 2008, for the european crisis, and one more time for this pandemic depression. what you need? you have to follow larry summers's advice. targeted, temporary, timely fiscal stimulus.
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they did it in march with the cares act. they can do it again. jonathan: can you build on something for us. confusing a mechanical bounce with the recovery. is that what we have been doing? carmen: yes. recoveryefinition of is you at least have the same level of income, the same level of gdp you had before the crisis started. that took quite a number of years, five years in the u.s. from the global financial crisis and longer for europe. snapback,t, we see a we see growth rates come back because the declines were so sharp. that is rebound. recovery is when you are at least as well-off as you were before. that will take some years.
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jonathan: in your mind, do you think this is a political decision to make the call to say look at the recovery, confusion with the mechanical bounce come and say we do not need more stimulus, or do you think it is a failure of the understanding of economics we continue to make? carmen: there is no simple answer. it has elements of both. we have seen it in history. premature declaration of victory has always been a recurring theme. the first signs of recovery, the green shoots. this time we do not learn much from the over 2009, where2008 to growth forecasts had to be marked down repeatedly. lisa: vincent, can you build on
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that with the idea we are heading into a winter where we have a virus that is expanding, worsening, spreading, even though people are getting more concerned about the dead, about adding with more physical support. you think -- with more fiscal support. you think we are heading toward a double-dip recession that will hamper growth that is currently not being modeled for? vincent: the rebound has enough strength. impetus butcal there is considerable monetary accommodation. households have a lot of savings so they have the wherewithal to spend. it is not as much a risk of double-dip. it is a risk we extend the rebound that it takes longer to get to recovery, and the longer it takes to recover level of activity, the more likely unfortunate things happen. ballenger sheets -- balance
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sheets get strained, there are more business failures, people lose more skills and exit the labor market. i am worried about the permanent scarring associated with taking too long to get to recovery. usually you get fed on market economies. lisa: what does that mean in terms of emerging markets insolvencies, the idea emerging market prices a lot of people have been talking about, including yourself. do you think if we do get this period of scarring, you get the wave of insolvencies in the developing world that we have not seen? carmen: before we say we have inactivity,e pickup even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailties in the low income economies and several emerging markets. argentina, lebanon, venezuela,
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ecuador, now zambia. this is a longer list than we had in years. not everything happen simultaneously, but i think the -- especiallyor vulnerable are lower income --ntries, but not limited to a very poor and tracked it -- a very protracted period of financial fragility in the banking side and the possibility come in the worst cases, outright sovereign debt crisis. be still requiring restructuring, still requiring coming to the imf programs and so on. tom: carmen reinhart and vincent reinhart with us on their important article on the
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pandemic depression and foreign affairs. without question my essay of the summer. carmen reinhart, question for you, and it is delicate. thee completely misjudge ,ercent of gdp of stimulus aid income replacement, that will be required? thewe completely misjudging 2% to 3% of gdp will not get it done and the statistic is much more towards 5% or 6% of gdp? it is not entirely a misjudgment. it is also the reality of capacity. if you are speaking about the emerging world, the private capital flows have significantly retrenched. it is the multilateral, it is the imf, it is the world bank,
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it is the developing bank. the firepower there is very limited. it is not the federal reserve. boj or the ecb. these institutions have constraints in how much they can deliver. it is not entirely about misjudging the seriousness of what is needed, but also having the capacity for well over 100 countries to deliver that kind of shot in the arm. jonathan: we caught up with david rosenberg around 40 minutes ago and he wanted your view on how higher debt loads could constrain demand, could constrain potential gdp? given how much debt we have added to the bubble economy in the last nine months -- have you started doing work on that? carmen: i've been doing a lot of
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is, for the i think advanced economies, the more immediate issues, which i think have to do with private debt. , big shot in the arm source of stimulus has been forbearance. delaying payments for households and firms. when those programs expire, to those debts continue to be for the advanced economies as opposed to lower incomes and emerging-market -- the more immediate issue is the private debt. , especially for the corporate sector, the small and medium businesses, that is already a source of concern. tom: vincent reinhart, final
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question to you. your market forecast, your economic forecast for q1 and q2 of next year? advise the biden administration this morning. vincent: we keep slowing from where we have been. obviously you do not repeat 33%. we have in the first quarter of a soft patch because of the absence of stimulus. on the assumption that washington, d.c. get something together, then closer to 5% in the middle part of the year. what i hope we get is something like the cares act of targeted and temporary and timely impetus rather than the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009, which was timely, but had
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a very long spend outbreak. now was not the time to do infrastructure. we needed over the longer haul, but right now we need to get income into the hands of people. jonathan: we have to leave it there. carmen reinhart and vincent reinhart. thank you very much. tom keene, i think it is clear, the prospect for a policy error is big right now, looking at the trajectory of things and where the policy conversation is. tom: this has been a great monday conversation. not only the academics of carmen reinhart and vincent reinhart. just the market academics. we are here where we knew we would be, which is evidence of a slow down, and it is a clear and present reality. a clear split between manufacturing and services. manufacturing is better. pointing out a little
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bit of a lift in some of the pmi's off of the back of the hope around the vaccine. tom: i go to the disinflation discussion with david rosenberg. -- as theimply service sector ebbs you get a disinflation and service sector. does that come back to the u.s. at 3% or are we finding a new reduced level? that is a huge guesstimate by the people we speak to. jonathan: we got the rosenberg gas, that was a downed -- the rosenberg guess, and that was a downside surprise. lisa: we got the best performance for treasuries last week since august. that comes as we get better and better vaccine news. i want to come back to something you and tom were talking about, which is the debt overhang. deutsche bank ran the numbers. by $20eased global debt trillion over the past year. what does that do the long-term growth?
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$20 trillion. that according to deutsche bank. 270 $7 trillion of global debt by the end of 2020. jonathan: that number sounds insane. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro with some insane numbers about a drop in my inbox. ferro canrch so jon get to his other properties. jonathan: we do it for you in about 15 minutes. this is bloomberg. ritika: another vaccine has shown promise in the fight against the coronavirus. the shot developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented a majority of people from getting the disease. it stops 70% of participants from falling ill. that has led -- that is less
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than maxine's from pfizer and moderna. effectiveness rose to percent after two -- one of president trump most loyal supporters says it is time for the president to move on. stephen schwartz says the outcome of the election is certain and he is ready to help president-elect biden. united airlines is expanding coronavirus testing for 10 locations from houston. amongst them, aruba, the bahamas, and peru. all of the locations require testing. passengers will have the option to take a mailing test. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is such a critical moment for a smooth, normal transition process to happen. what is happening is anything but normal. i think this economy is in a precarious point. , keyjared bernstein advisor to the president-elect on economics. dr. bernsteine would be in for a position within the biden administration. we will see how that unfolds in the coming days. right now with breaking news from dow jones, where the trump administration may consider a packed against china economic
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coercion is someone steeping the transitions of washington. michael mckee is our economics and policy correspondent. working on the transition from eisenhower to kennedy, mckee has been adept at understanding the back-and-forth in washington. the trump administration seems to be aggressively affecting economic and political policy into the lame-duck. is that a surprise? michael: it is not a surprise. the president telegraphed that is what would happen. the process is more straightforward than it has been in the past. a lot of other administrations have tried to flip people into jobs and make policy changes at the end of their term. the exception was george w. bush , when the obama administration came in, he told his cabinet not to do anything. it is not a surprise, but it does make it more difficult for the incoming president, especially if you go as far as
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trump in trying to reverse policy. tom: separate executive orders, holding up the book and doing what mr. trump does, from state department policy or treasury policy. how does the biden administration respond to executive orders versus what they would respond to, cabinet level policy. michael: executive orders can be reversed. that is not a real issue. the incoming biden administration is preparing a host of reversals cured -- preparing a host of reversals. places like the environment protection agency are trying to change not only the rules on pollution levels, but the rules on how you change the rules to make it more difficult to roll things back. that will be the challenge for the administration. if they get the senate, then democrat can use an obscure law the trump administration used at the beginning that enables you rulesl out -- rollback passed within 90 days.
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if they do not, those will stay in place. lisa: in the meantime, as there is this political drama unfolding in washington, we have this pandemic raging and people losing their jobs, people not going to restaurants. we see this in the soft data and high-frequency data. you have a sense of how close we are to a double-dip recession based on the high-frequency data and the fact the economic surprise index for the united june, is the lowest since when we had the real acceleration of the pandemic? michael: we are getting closer. jp morgan has suggested a first quarter contraction. most of wall street, if you look at the yield curve, has not priced something like that in. yield curves come down, but still fail -- stillwell elevated over where it was at the beginning of the year. the other aspect is we lost so many jobs and business in the beginning, now even though
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things are shutting down again, the damage is not as great. the economy is definitely slowing. it is a question of how far it goes and whether it does going to contraction, whether people feel they can hold out because of the good vaccine news and whether we get some additional stimulus before joe biden takes office on january 20. if we have to wait that long, the odds increase you might have some sort of contraction. lisa: this is important. a lot of people came out several months ago saying we absolutely calded another round of fis injection to support the economy. now, mr. saying we are surprised, the balance sheet of most consumers seems to be better than we expected. based on all of the people we speak with, do you think the re-think in the economic field is we do not necessarily need that big of a support package and more in line with republican skinny bill then it is with the
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$2 trillion democratic bill? michael: most economists would be somewhere in between. the republicans in their $500 billion skinny bill do not put any money in for states and localities. democrat see that is very important. a lot of economists do as well because we've already seen layoffs in the state and local employment, and there'll be more if they cannot fill their budget by the end of the year. the other questions are on things that are less important, do you do something like suspending or eliminating student loans, that sort of thing? that is probably more optional. the basics of the package will be getting money to people who are unemployed and helping out states and localities. there also fighting over the legal liability question that republicans want. democrats might be willing to compromise on that. tom: i assume this is a two hour workday through the week with the thanksgiving week and the
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fit not too active -- and the fed not too active. what will you research as you stagger into december and the questions you will ask it the december 16 meeting? michael: we will want to see what happens with the economic data. on wednesday you will book me for the two our show because we have about 20 different economic indicators given the holiday. then we will want to see what is happening with the markets when we get closer to the fed beating on december 16 -- the fed meeting at the 16th of december. if they are still where they are now with financial conditions relatively loose, they do not have to do anything even though the markets are suggesting maybe -- that is the big question. to they start buying up the longer end. we will know more as we get closer. michael: michael mckee -- tom: michael mckee, thank you so
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much. there is a headline out in one l. abramowitz was way out in front. careful. be very lyric swan is a firm that specializes in analysis of pharmacology and analysis of health. they are looking at the astrazeneca language, and as you alluded to this morning, the word embellish has come up. i do not want to cast aspersions, but that headline, you think that will echo through the day? lisa: the release was confusing. they had a 70% efficacy number, which raises the question why wasn't it 90%? and then they had a second efficacy number of 90%. it was confusing. confusing is bad in an era of so much disinformation. there is a question about what this actually shows. there is another round of 62%
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efficacy. it is important we get credibility. efficacy, thethe bigger question is how you roll this out with enough doses? given the fact there is a six-week spread to get immunity with two shots, getting everybody rounded up. your question, do you cap to everyone on your forehead if they actually get it? tom: we have to get the reports from the team to understand the strong word "embellish," but there it is. we will drive forward the conversation as we do at bloomberg. we will look at politics and we have recently looked at health and pharmacology. we look forward to that, with astrazeneca and their president. that will be a more than timely conversation at the 10:00 hour. up 124.-- dow futures
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i will call a churn with a lift of the market. brent crude, a 46 print. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪
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york for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the content of the open" starts right now. the big issue, the virus versus the vaccine. hospitalizations accelerating in the united states. new infections prompting tighter restrictions. cutting capacity 25%. los angeles shut down its outdoor dining once again, limiting america's most populous county to delivery and pick up. urging americans to stay diligent ahead of the holiday. dr. fauci: we are in a difficult situation at all levels. i would hope the people pushing back on the recommendations for mitigation measures look at the numbers. the numbers are improving for vaccine. astrazeneca becoming the third developer to report promising results this month alone. optimism rising. the hopes of beginning vaccinations in less tre

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