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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 8, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST

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rising until we get that disorderly market functioning. >> it is going to be very hard for yields to sit there and for markets to believe the fed isn't going to move sooner. >> if the fed starts talking about to bring their asset program, i think that will be negative for with assets -- negative for risk assets. >> half of the markets once to have better jobs data, and the other half is scared because of the potential inflationary consequences. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market taking a dive on the nasdaq, off by 180, down by 1.5%. the outlook gets better.
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the data gets better. that's bad news for big tech. tom: the tape is marginally better over the last 90 minutes. the vix tells me a lot at 27. we are not at the 30 level. jonathan: the data is better, the outlook is better. through on top a $1.9 trillion plan out of d.c. lisa: although this is not stemming necessarily as much from inflation as much as real yields. real yields rising, still negative, but there's a question , how much the fed will cap any yield rises as people give any outlook to the global growth -- any outlook on the global growth outlook. jonathan: on the s&p 500, down 21 on the s&p, -0.6%. in the bond market, 1.5907%.
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in the bond market, euro with a $1.18 handle. that dollar has made a comeback. euro-dollar comes in 0.4%. lisa: how exactly does this play into the global reflation story, when you talk about how much this was underpinned by a weaker dollar? this is something we will explore throughout the day. i am interested to hear what janet yellen has to say at the imf. she will be speaking with kristalina georgieva, the imf managing director, for international women's day. it comes at a time of growing disparity for the labor force. it is interesting to see how the former head of the federal reserve has moved over to a policy role and will try to narrow some of these gaps. we are also getting some gender equality policy measures, executive orders signed by president biden. unclear how much clout to these particular measures will have come a but could underpin some
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of what, tom, you were talking about when it comes to childcare credits and provisions, because somebody women stay home because they don't have other options. the house will be laying out guidelines for voting tomorrow on this $1.9 trillion stimulus. you have been talking about the 14. hundred dollar checks per person very needed -- the $1400 checks per person. very needed, but how much will go straight into the meme stocks? how much will go into equities that have already been bolstered? jonathan: let's talk about one of those now, gamestop, up by 11.5%. what i think we forget is there is a fundamental story to this, amid all the craziness of the last month or so. and that guy's name is ryan cohen, the founder of tui. they are tapping him to lead the e-commerce shift. i think that is going to be
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interesting, how they find the q fund that shift to e-commerce in a more aggressive way -- how they find a way to fund that shift to e-commerce and a more aggressive way. tom: i will say, to see what small caps have done, particularly as lori calvasina has had a broad swath of small caps, it is difficult. jonathan: you've got small caps, and then you got the craziness. gamestop has been part of the crazy story. part of it is the story about a better outlook, better yield. tom: renminbi is at 6.5 three. pacific rim having a tough time of it. jonathan: why? dollars up. why? the outlook is better. why? because we have thrown $1.9 trillion on top of the outlook.
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the growth experiment is here, playing out before our eyes, and we will start to see the data in the coming weeks and months. tom: the great experiment goldman sachs many years ago was to say abby joseph cohen when, -- abby joseph cohen, we can hire her, and she will make a name of it. on international women's day, it is important that week speak and get the current thoughts of abby joseph cohen, their senior investment strategist. you have seen this time many times before, the angst of the ambiguity, up we go, almost the fear of economic and gdp success. how do equities react when you get a surge in gdp as we anticipate? abby: first of all, thank you for including me today in the discussion. it is an important day and an important week for women.
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is it good news or bad news for the economy to be recovering? i would say it is good news. we are seeing, of course, this very significant rotation. those stocks that have performed extremely well only because interest rates were down and low may have a problem, but there are plenty of other opportunities in the equity market as we do see a rotation towards both stocks that do better when we feel more comfortable with the pace of economic recovery, and hopefully over the next couple of years, true economic expansion. these include the small-cap names, also the value names where there's been this wide cap in things like p/e ratios and so on. we are also seeing an improvement in stocks that are rate sensitive.
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there are some companies that do better when interest rates are a little bit higher, and we of course are seeing some movement now in those sectors that do better when we come out of lockdown, and the good news on the vaccine will i think be helpful, and those areas include things like restaurants and accommodation. tom: goldman sachs has been out front on a bull call. what does the gloom crew get wrong? abby: well, the argument behind this really great outlook from david is also based on the above consensus view from our chief economist, who believes that this year, the u.s. will see gdp of close to 7%, and it is even better fourth-quarter over fourth quarter. basically, that is 7.7%, based upon four factors. number one, this very robust
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fiscal package. number two, the fed staying basically friendly. number three, the virus depressed sectors beginning to rebound. and let's remember there's an awful lot of pent-up savings in the economy. the average consumer balance sheets, looking at the median there are many exceptions, but the average is looking good. debt balances are down, savings are up. when people feel a low bit better about the outlook, they will start to ash a little bit better about the outlook, they will start to -- a little bit better about the outlook, they will start to look better. you asked about the gloom group. let's look at inflation as being a function of two different things. number one, there are some special factors happening this year.
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maybe it is the energy prices and so on. there's also that quick rebound in prices from the very depressed levels we saw in some sectors in 2020. but the second important reason that inflation may move up a bit is that we are seeing an improved economy, and i think that is great news. it is the opposite side of the coin. on one side, the economy is doing better. on the others, prices are not quite so depressed. the goldman sachs forecast on cpi does show it moving up from about a 1.1% last year to a 2.5% this year, but in 2022, we are looking at cpi's about 2%, by historical levels not a problematic level for inflation. by the way, that is the fed's target level for inflation, about 2%. jonathan: many people come on this program and try to look to history with a parallel.
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what makes this unique? abby: i think what makes it unique is that none of us, regardless of how long we have been in the markets, have seen a pandemic inspired recession and bear market, and now the recovery. what pleases us in terms of what might happen is that we are seeing policies that are aimed at providing relief. we've had a friendly federal reserve and other central banks are doing what they can as well, and now of course we have this very meaningful relief package coming in the form of fiscal policy. i think it is important not to categorize this totally as a stimulus package because it is not. it is a relief package aimed at getting us out of a hole. the next important thing to be watching is what the congress
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can pass and the president can sign with regard to really moving us forward, and that would include things like the infrastructure reform, things like addressing the issues in the labor markets, and there are some underlying problems that really must be addressed, and are not quite addressed yet even in this very large package that we expect to be signed into law later this week. jonathan: that is on the -- lisa: that is on the phone the mental side. there's also -- the fundamental side. there's also a question on the technical side of what that means for markets. this year is different because the global reflation trade has not come along with a weaker dollar. in fact, the dollar is stronger against every major currency year to date, and we are looking at the biggest selloff between the msci emerging market currency index and the dollar
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going back to last march. how does that alter your view going forward, or do you think this is the indication of a different regime where the dollar can strengthen, yields can rise, and that doesn't come along with the rest of the world improving at the same pace? abby: let's step back for just a moment. when we do currency forecast, obviously we are looking at all the same factors other people are, but one factor really has dominated since the beginning of the pandemic, and that is the safe haven nature of the u.s. dollar as the world's reserve currency. if anything, that has been somewhat enhanced over the recent past, and part because the united states has been able to take somewhat more aggressive measures than other nations in coming out, and we also are now looking a little bit better in terms of vaccination rate in selloff. what happens going forward in 2021 will be a function not just
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of us, but what happens to other nations. so far we have seen some disappointment with regard to some of the emerging economies, but one thing we should all be watching is whether an improved u.s. economic activity will help bring trade partners along with us, and that certainly would be a good news scenario. tom: jon, you mentioned that last week. one final question, if we can come on this day. you know this and i know this, that securities research led the way. whether it was abby joseph cohen when which what they did at bernstein -- abby joseph cohen , what they did at bernstein.
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how does this read over to the financial industry? abby: it is a vexing question. what we basically see in financial services is that there may be a large number of women coming in at the bottom end of that pyramid, and we'll have to do better not just in financial services, but other industries in enhancing that pipeline. for example, we see that women are well represented in the number of industries, but as you move up say to the vp level or the md level, that is where we see flattening out. by the way, while we can point to problems in the u.s., it is worth in most other countries, so they are looking to us, interestingly, to get things better. we tend to think about these professional white-collar jobs. the real problem for many women in 2020, this is not been a good year for women who are really on
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the front line, those who are heavily represented in some of this virus afflicted sectors, including restaurants and accommodation, but also in state and local governments, where women tend to be overrepresented by numbers and positions like teachers and social workers, and over the last year, state and local governments have in fact reduced jobs by something like 900,000, and that affects women much more dramatically. the labor force rate for women now is much lower than for men. if you look at adults, it is about 70% participation for men, only 57% for women, and this has long-term consequences in terms of potential scarring of the labor force, especially for women. jonathan: really important issues, and we appreciate your time coming on the program to share them. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word
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news, i'm ritika gupta. democratic lawmakers predict that president biden's 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill will sale through the house tomorrow -- will sail through the. house tomorrow. . changes are unlikely -- through the house tomorrow. changes are unlikely to make progressive democrats vote against the measure tomorrow. goldman sachs chief economist says there should be very strong demand growth. the jobless rate will fall from the current 6.2% to 4.1% by the end of the year. bloomberg has learned that gamestop is tapping the founder of tui.com -- founder of chuy.com -- of chewy.com to found -- to lead the
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e-commerce push. the move marks tesla's first major foray into the epicenter of the u.s. energy economy. prince harry and meghan markle gave their side of the rift that is developed in britain's royal family in a wide-ranging interview with oprah winfrey. they described pallas discussions about the color of their sons skin, losing protections, and the pressures that led the duchess of sussex to contemplate suicide. harry said he felt trapped and was surprised he was cut off financially. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ pres. biden: it obviously wasn't easy. it wasn't always pretty.
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but it was so desperately needed, urgently needed. everything in this package is designed to ease the suffering and meet the most urgent needs of the nation, and put us in a better position to prevail. jonathan: the president of the united states there, joe biden. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market shaping up as follows, in the united states and worldwide. the s&p 500 coming a little bit lower, off by 0.5%. the nasdaq is where the pain is once again, with yields rising two or three basis points on tens, getting close to 1.60%. euro-dollar, $1.1865. the south african rand weaker by 1%. the peso down 1%. the turkish lira down 2%. tom: the emc story i think is there and valid. what i do see is yen, 108.63.
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that is a changed landscape for europe and fermata mudguard. jonathan: couldn't agree more -- and for madame lagarde. jonathan: couldn't agree more. look back to the speech from bobby ofo netta, the recent -- from fob be ofo netta -- from fob be a -- from fabio for netta. tom: that's where i was going to go, just shocking to see some of the challenges on the pandemic in europe. right now, after an exhausting weekend, kevin cirilli, our bloomberg chief washington correspondent, with us. i really want to move forward right now. give us the timeline of the implementation of this $1.9 trillion. when is it dropped upon americans? kevin: tonight, the house of representatives is likely going to hold a procedural vote, a
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very narrow majority because of the democratic advantage in the house of representatives, so it is a very near a majority, and speaker pelosi has to keep her caucus together. as early as tomorrow, the house, after the procedural vote for final passage because of the changes that the senate made to this piece of legislation over the weekend. so the biggest unknown right now , and the biggest difference right now is that the house passed this bill with the minimum wage in it. the senate removed that, as we have covered, and now the question is whether or not speaker pelosi can keep progressives on board without the minimum wage provisions in the senate version of the bill. jonathan: it is a $1.9 trillion bill, but the piece about that seems to get the most attention is the $1400 checks. there have been some changes to that, and when they actually had bank accounts. kevin: they would hit bank
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accounts almost immediately over the next week, we can do half, two weeks. you have to or that the government already has a system set up in terms of depositing those checks. there are various thresholds in terms of who would qualify for the $1400 stimulus checks that, quite honestly, centrists were able to win in the sense that some of the provisions for those who get them, so the immediacy and the qualifications was definitely a sticking point over the weekend. jonathan: do you sense a permanent shift in washington, that this isn't just a pim to make story? -- this isn't just a pandemic story? kevin: yes, but i think there's a clear marker in terms of where progressives are headed, like senator elizabeth warren, who has advocated for increasing taxes as a source of revenue for some broader form of government programs like infrastructure, like universal pre-k, and versus
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what republicans are laying down a marker for, like senator bill haggerty, former private equity official turned ambassador to japan, who has said the united states needs to do more to attract foreign investment in order to fund some of these programs. that is really the dueling ideological lines that have formed over the last couple of weeks. attracting foreign investment away from china versus raising taxes on the wealthy. tom: i can't -- lisa: i can't let you go without talking about andrew cuomo and what we have seen over the weekend, with increasing allegations. kevin: because they will be talking about megan and harry, because that was the dominant story last night. lisa: however, i am still going to lead with the new york governor andrew cuomo, despite your penchant to speak about royalty. there is a question going forward of how much this will begin governor cuomo's powers at
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a pivotal time of distribution of the inoculations, at a time where we need leadership, and now it is been stripped. kevin: this is a very serious story, and the democrats i talk with who at one point defended governor cuomo aren't there anymore. there are two serious stories come of the allegations, as well as the alleged cover-up with regards to the nursing home data. i am hard-pressed to find too many more democrats on capitol hill who are standing by him, but he has been adamant that he is going to continue to stay in that position, and that he is not going to resign. he is very isolated from the democratic party. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. looking forward to the coverage on that particular story. chief washington correspondent, and host of "numbered sound on" on blue -- of "bloomberg sound on" on bloomberg radio. is a quote from chuck schumer.
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"unity, unity, unity." it was a bipartisan effort. they had a group of republican into the white house to talk about this bill. those went nowhere. i just wonder what the next effort looks like on this front. tom: there are two bills, one on voting rights, one on infrastructure. this is a joe biden from the 1970's, which is the way you did things back then. all i can say is if he hadn't done that, there would have just simply been a greater tension. jonathan: no and disagrees with you on that front -- no one disagrees with you on that front, but the argument is, does this suck the air out of the room on the next thing? ? do they do infrastructure? tom: they've got to do it because by the time they get to this, we are going to be into some serious primary season for
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november of 2022. jonathan: and we will have some serious economic data. tom: well said. jonathan: the economy will reopen. it is an issue if you want to spend another $2 trillion. you know what comes back into the conversation. do we need this? can we wait? lisa: although joe biden has the popular support. the polls show that people are very much behind this. you can say this has to do with the fact they are getting $1400 checks. certainly, money helps. at the same time, if there is material growth, perhaps that will build. i thing it is fascinating to think that joe biden's challenge is to convince people that government can work, that smaller government isn't necessarily better, that perhaps more government support will actually foster growth. that is his challenge. jonathan: and not even a challenge, given what we have seen over the last 12 months. a $2 trillion plus bill, another $1.9 trillion bill. it is all piling up.
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do you have a final word? tom: no, i'm just not as gloomy as everybody today. jonathan: i'm not blue the either -- i'm not gloomy either. the outlook looks better and better. tom: not gloomy. jonathan: this is
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♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio for our audience worldwide. good news is good news. good news is bad news. good news is good news for the banks, the energy companies. good news is bad news for tech. yields are higher, eating into the tech names. the waiting on the s&p 500 for tech is massive. real yields higher. good news is bad news for italy, for europe. the 10 year yield on the month up 42 basis points on treasuries. on gilts, up 27. on the italian 10 year, up 22. are things better in europe, in italy? not yet.
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on the ecb board this week, maybe the comments you need to be paying attention to, that the tightening we are seeing in the united states is warranted. in the eu, it is unwarranted. yields are higher,
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is very much the opposite. they did a building out of a quiet, conservative, traditional business. sonali basak joins us right now, our chief wall street correspondent. was there any surprise here? they already had the investment management arm. is this just a done deal moving forward? sonali: yes, it is. this is something people saw coming for a long time, but apollo is more closely linked to an insurance company, a highly regulated entity. it does cement those earnings. remember, it had accounted for almost 1/5 of apollo's earnings. tom: i look at the history of this, and the honor of speaking years ago about his developing of sunamerica, which was shockingly profitable in the heydays of annuities. i first reaction when i saw this , is this a new after leon black apollo that is going to become a more conservative apollo in terms of their financial statements? sonali: yes, in some ways,
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because they are eliminating a lot of their shares. the founders will also, like everybody else, it is one vote, one share. apollo's corporate governance will be simply hide. but it is not just about this wonky business of annuities. athene is a major owner and originator of credit access now, really around the world. you see them in talks to buy retail assets. apollo wants to own the way that credit is originated. tom: thank you so much for the brief. ms. basak will be all across bloomberg today on this important transaction for global wall street. another important transaction is in the fixed income space. it has been price down, yield up. jonathan: your yield on the 10 year, one point 60%, up three basis points. the path to do percent. subadra rich -- 22%. subadra put ash the past 22% --
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the path to do percent -- the path to 2%. subadra rajappa joins us now. what is the road to 2%? subadra: we will probably get another tranche of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in green initiatives and infrastructure spending, so i think there's going to be a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus to just of my -- to justify fund metals. i think gdp will be much higher -- justify fundamentals. i think gdp will be much higher than the boy expect. you are also looking at financial front conditions -- at financial conditions that have been somewhat accommodative, and the fed seems not too worried about rising interest rates. we think yield and the second half is probably going to moderate.
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lisa: when does this become a buying opportunity? subadra: that really depends a lot on on how the market reacts to higher yields. the fed expects rates to be well beyond 2%, but i think before that he will see demand from perhaps overseas accounts, given the fact that the yield differential between the u.s. and other countries is quite wide. there will be opportunities for for investors to take down this rise in yields. i am singing 1.75% to 2%, you might see some of the demand for 10 years at that level. lisa: you also said that so far, credit conditions have remained very loose. it is starting on the margins to
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show a different tone. you've seen outflows from credit accelerate. you seen the worst performance for investment grade credit in the u.s. going back to 2008. at what point do using this actually counts as tightening financial conditions for the federal reserve? subadra: that is a very good question. what you tend to see and past tantrums is there is a delay between the rising yields and the impact in things like corporate bond spreads and credit spreads and the dollar. corporate bond spreads have not started whitening, and if we see a trend -- started widening, and if we see a trend to that process, that will be a concern for the fed because these factors are going to emphasize financial conditions. we will have to see if this actually becomes something that
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will tighten financial conditions. jonathan: from bank of america, "we are going tactically underweight corporate investment bonds. we expect the tightening of financial conditions, ultimately forcing the fed to respond." do you envision a 1.75% to 2% u.s. 10 year without leading to that kind of event? subadra: the key risk to higher yields from here on is the fed. the fed has a lot of tools in his playbook -- in its playbook to be able to manage yields. the question is when they actually step in and respond. right now they seem to be comfortable with the trajectory because they feel it reflect the fundamentals of the economy. higher growth, higher inflation. perhaps as we see unruly behavior in the bond market, the tightening of financial conditions, they will step in, and they have a lot of tools in place. it is a key risk to whether we get to percent or not because the fed has time to prevent the
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rising yields. jonathan: subadra rajappa, thank you. i find the conversation amazing that you come over the forecast, you put all this effort in, here is socgen looking for 2%, bank of america and morgan stanley looking for 1.75%, but your key risk is a decision of the and whether they like it or not. tom: neil data had a note -- neil dutta had a note out on this. to me, it is the bear market and bonds. you'll down, price up. it is not wrapped around a recession, or wrapped around tepid economic growth. jonathan: not at all. tom: i thought abby joseph cohen had something with the reaffirmation of 7% growth. jonathan: i don't think it is the fed's job to bailout growth equity, but credit spreads wider , the fed has a problem they
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might have to respond to. tom: on this international women's day, i want the three of us to mention the one woman that really moved us forward. i was 17 years old and in over my head. aerospace engineering at the height of the apollo program, and iran into ruth rebecca strew it ash and i ran into ruth rebecca str in mathematics. she changed my life. i was as lost at 17 as you were. that is hard to believe. jonathan: i'm still lost on that subject now, tom. i want to know more about tom keene the student. tom: she is a giant. her father literally invented modern spherical geometry. this is we could nerdy stuff. but she was lights out influential for me. jonathan: very cool. coming up, we will talk to deborah fuller, university of
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washington school of medicine microbiology professor. for our audience worldwide, and ecb decision thursday, data through the week, and some big bond auctions as well. a lot of supply, tens and 30's. stay tuned for that. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: apollo global management has agreed to buy retirement services company athene holding. the all stock deal values of seen -- values athene at about $11 billion. apollo was already the biggest shareholder. the transaction is expected to more than double apollo's reported earnings from last year. senate democrats made some changes to president biden's stimulus bill, mostly to appease moderates and comply with parliamentary rules, but those changes aren't likely to keep
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the measure from sailing through the house tomorrow. it is still expected to be a tight vote. house speaker nancy pelosi can afford to have only four democrats oppose the bill and have it pass. president biden will formally create a gender policy council within the white house, part of two executive orders he intends to sign today as part of international women's day. he will also order the education department to re-examine the trump administration policies on a law which governs the way discrimination in schools is handled. the u.s. and south korea have reached a long-sought offer agreement on defense craft. seoul will pay more for u.s. troops stationed in the country. talks stalled last year when donald trump rejected a south korean proposal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> more than ever today, with the whole world affected by the pandemic, we see how much we
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need each other. everybody is affected, and that is why all of the output by governments, ministries and others has to be met with cooperation to restore our economy. jonathan: that was the former eu trade commissioner and candidate to lead the oecd. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the economy and the outlook for that economy gets better and better, and this administration throws $1.9 trillion at. the house can seal that bill, and then i gets signed. yields up to almost 1.60% on tens now. your dollar is stronger. euro-dollar breaking down to $1.1863. the peso is weaker. the rand is weaker. i know much more so for you, you are on lira watch. turkish lira weaker by almost over 2%. tom: it is still idiosyncratic,
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but can you imagine a $1.17 zero? how do you imagine that -- $1.17 euro? howdy imagine that? jonathan: i think we have -- how do you imagine that? jonathan: i thing we have expectations for growth in america shift just north of 5% to 5.5% in a matter of a couple of weeks. if you follow the economist forecasts we do at bloomberg, that median estimate has really pushed out over the last couple of weeks and could go up again. tom: we will have to see. it begins an eventful week as people start to lean towards a federal reserve meeting march 17. on international women's day, we have been flattered by our team, who's got nuts important voices. abby joseph cohen on the markets, and now deborah fuller, from the number one microbiology platform in america, known as the university of washington,
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and their school of medicine and microbiology, where she provides important research leadership. we are thrilled she could bring us up to date. there are so many looking at the clear and present. you and your leadership at washington are trying to figure out where we will be on covid two years from now, five years from now, and even out to 2031. how do we prepare for the next virus? deborah: right now we are doing great, but we are constantly battling new variance coming out . already, the manufacturers are updating their vaccines to combat the next one to come. we are in this cycle that would be similar to flu, where we have to constantly get another update , and always lingering in the background would be the potential that a new variant could emerge that could cause yet another pandemic. that is the case for flu and for coronavirus. what we are working on is really
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thinking about the future is really about developing what we would call a pan coronavirus vaccine, one that would be able to induce immune responses against parts of the virus that are very conserved, and allow us to block future variants to come and provide protection against a future pandemic. tom: are we constrained because we don't have an efficacious vaccine that can go worldwide, particularly to them polished -- two impoverished areas? do we need to get to a basic vaccine? deborah: absolutely. i've always said that the ideal pandemic vaccine is one that can be stored at room temperature and administered in a single shot, and ideally self-administered. that is really the way to effectively and rapidly distribute and get a vaccine quickly worldwide, into both
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poor and wealthy countries. that is another area we are working on. we are working on a room temperature stable nucleic acid vaccine based on dna rather than rna, and one that can be self-administered without a needle and syringe. lisa: i was going to say, so it ministered with a needle would perhaps be a different -- self-administered with a needle would perhaps be a different proposition. there's a shortened time for the discovery of how to combat a new virus to actually getting vaccines rolled out and into people's arms. how much have we shortened the vaccine rollout? deborah: substantially, with the rna vaccines, as well as the new vaccines that j&j is developing. you only need the sequence of whatever variant is emerging. traditionally, vaccines would take a were nine months to update with these -- to update. with these new technologies, we
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are looking at eight or nine weeks to be able to update and roll out a new version. lisa: how different are these vaccines from a one another, given that there have been different efficacy rates? deborah: the efficacy rates are really based on the fact that the vaccines were tested really at different times. the mrna vaccines were tested when the first variants emerged. all three vaccines were designed to combat that initial variant. so the rna vaccines, the world variant was stacked in favor of making those look better because when you have a vaccine that is not a match, you're going to get better efficacy. so j&j, by the time they got to their clinical trial, the variants had emerged. the difference really is that you can't interpret that one vaccine is better than the other. if you look at real-world
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impact, what we are seeing is all three of these vaccines have a profound impact in protecting against severe disease and death. we are close to 100% protection from death, and that is really what is important. that is what we are after with vaccines, to get to a point where we don't have to be afraid of a high mortality rate of this virus. jonathan: thanks for your time today. dr. deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine professor. you just got the feeling when that headline came out in early november that things were about to change quickly. this market just raced away with it. small caps extend, the rustle up more than 40% from the end of october -- the russel -- the russell up more than 40% from the end of october. tom: it is almost unimaginable if we continue that acceleration where we will be in 30 days. jonathan: 9.2 percent fully
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vaccinated in america, 17% of the population at least one shot, doing this at a clip of 2 million plus a day. we are racing away here. lisa: but is a real delicate job when it comes to messaging because we are also getting a race to reopening. even in new york, you are seeing an increased capacity and restaurants at a time when you do have new variants starting to spread, and health officials, tony fauci was really adamant saying it is not looking good. we don't want to get complacent with 70,000 new cases diagnosed every day. jonathan: what a lineup we've got coming up for you. on the bond market, kathy jones. on the market, amrita sen. henrietta treyz on china and everything d.c. tom: an incredibly strong lineup across all of the assets that would like to do here on radio and tv. i'm really interested in what kathy jones sees, what people are doing at schwab. jonathan: looking forward to
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that conversation. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market heading south for big tech. a monster fiscal plan down in washington. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> rates are going to keep rising until we get that disorderly market functioning. >> if the fed starts talking about pages and -- about tapering, i think that will be negative for markets. >> the market is looking for any positive data to continue to justify this march higher. >> there is a very strong correlation between the last two rounds of stimulus checks and the inversion you are seeing. >> half of the markets want to have better jobs data, and the other half of the market is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequent is -- potential inflationary consequences.

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