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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 5, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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turmoil, another 1,000 point it's about what 5% down from drop for the dow watch this on the app as well pb here i think you could go on the premise that that might be the low for the short-term but it has to prove its the 7:00 p.m. eastern time check it out we're back after this. case. >> and fridays are not great. >> they substitute haven't been tell us how much you have, good all year. >> we are out of time. and how long you need it to last. we'll estimate how much you could spend. don't forget to watch the then you can decide how you'll spend it. special tonight 7:00 p.m thanks for watching "closing schwab manages the complexity with automated, bell." >> "fast money" starts right tax-smart withdrawals. that you can start, now. the clocks don't agree stop or adjust at any time with no penalties. another big selloff rocking wall and you pay no advisory fee. schwab intelligent income. street, fierce of economic slowdown sending stocks schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. spiraling, the dow dropping 970 point for a loss of 3.6% every s&p 500 sector finished deep in the red. and more incredibly the move in bonds. the 10-year yield at one point hitting 0.899% remember, it was 3% two years ago. the drop leaving many investors on edged edge that the bond market may be predicting
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recession. the dow down lost 2,400 points in three weeks and 1.2% away from wiping out all of last year's gains most other indexes already have. your team of "fast money" traders to want steve grasso brian kelly, karen finerman and guy adami. i'm brian sullivan guy, i don't like to use this word but is part of this market, investors, panicking >> no. again, panic is the wrong word we are within 7 or 8% of all-time high. if people sold stocks given where we were is that panic? the speed things are moving is scary. i don't suggest it's panic i don't think you've seen panic. and frankly the job isn't to stoke the flames of the panics it's not the job to assuage concerns it's our job to tell you what we nifrpg is going on with the vix at this level
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given the fact that people are not traveling, not going to games, schools closing, that's a fact now we talked about it last night. that's having a huge effect on the economy and the subsequent kwekt effect on the market i'll say this again, i think steve agrees, 2850 or it's only human to find inspiration in nature. thereabouts in the s&p is big level. that's 7% from where we are. and also find answers. that to me makes sense. >> we will get to the numbers, our search to transform... waste into renewable natural gas the technical stuff going on but led chevron to partner with california bioenergy. i want to go back to the idea, karen. and i wasn't suggesting in any working to provide an alternative source of power... way to stoke it. ...for a cleaner way forward. in fact be, the on opposite what i'm thinking karen is you don't want to buy generally until things flush out do you feel like we are or are getting close to being flushed out? >> i don't know. but since i am a long-term investor, i do feel like i have to be dipping my toe in the water, have to buy stuff it's down a lot. you know, this is the part where you are so scared to own everything and the gut is to sell everything. what i did do today was sell all right. welcome back
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another brutal selloff hitting puts that's my protection that's my insurance. stock investments as coronvirus and yet i feel like, wow, with fears grow to economic fears the vix up here, it was 41, 2, but there is one name that's been bucking the trend in a big late in the day, that that does way. of course video conferencing stock zoom surging hirer feel panicky to me i mean, think about this, we are more companies cut non-essential almost exactly where we were two travel and face to mace days ago at this time. and yet if we had seen flat meetings zoom up 85% this year. yesterday, flat today and ended if you tuned into "options action" a couple weeks back you up here, that would have a very different feel than what's happened in the last 48 hours. saw tony zhang call the breakout that's a difficult market to he is back to explain how you trade in can use options to get in on the but i feel the risks are just as much to the downside as they are stock on the next leg higher to the upside. >> still tony. >> thanks, brian i want to do a >> some koort natured surprise. look back on the zoom trade we >> still laid out on "options action" a >> actually as we go lower and lower i think the risk of upside few weeks ago. a bullish earnings play. smock is actually -- >> i think the problem is qb to because of the high implied volatility we were using a call your point is it panicky do you diagonal here to play a bullish feel panicky view going into earnings i think people are getting i was buying the march 105 calls panicked over the virus. i think that it's -- i'm not a scientist but it feels overdone for about $8 and selling the on the panicky side of the february 28th weekly options, worries about the virus. as far as the marketplace, we 107 calls for $2.15. here we spent about $5 parking
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were down 15% to that 285 a lot 85 risking 6% of the level, smacked it on a dime. underlying stock price for the that was the low from october. bullish view into earnings so that's the low you have to the goal was to allow the february 28th weakly options to look at. if we break that, then all hell expire worthless that's that's what we saw. could break loose in the overall on february 28th zoom was below market then you see panic the 107 level. the problem is you haven't seen and we were able to let those a great flush yet. to karen's point you're down a call expire worthless and sent out a tweet the following monday to turn the long 105 call into a thousand. >> this was not a flush day. >> that's the problem. vertical by selling the march you get a flush day, you're down 130 calls against it we collected roughly 4.50 on a thousand points and then you rally a thousand points. that call option so that's confusing investors. which brought our net trade on because no one understands what this particular trade down to changed in a 24-hour period. just $1.5. and this is the way markets do our whole richg oh risk on this trade was only 1% of the act while you're trying to underlying stock price zoom reported earnings yesterday research a bottom. and blew it out of the water i don't think we're there yet. 15 cents on earnings versus the but i do think people are getting overpanicky about stuff 7 cents expected, 188 million in they shouldn't be. >> some of the giant swings revenue versus 176 as of today, what we saw was are -- and we've been talking about it for months. that if you did not catch the the "wall street journal" had a tweet to turn this into a article about it, look of vertical, your march 105 calls liquidity you would have been able to sell some of the up swings on the those for roughly $17 which
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turned out to be a $293% gain a upside you have etf mismatches. >> these are leveraged accounts that the average person has no on your investment which is pretty good on a 25% hablt to come in contact with. move on the underlying stob. but if you were able to make i rarely come in contact with that adjustment, you are looking them but what happens is they wind up at almost an 1,100% gain on this exacerbating the move. particular trade because of -- they get triggered by stops on because of the fact that we the upside on the intraday high. reduced the cost of the trade down to, sr. 1.35. they get triggered sell stops on i think this is a prime example of how to utilize options to a low on the intraday low and play a bullish view into earnings while risking a small that cusicks the most. amount of capital doing so >> i wouldn't characterize >> all right what's going gone on the last tony zhang of "options action. few weeks. thank you very much. we appreciate that you're not doing this i think. well for more "options action" but i wouldn't want to kaerkz of course tune in tomorrow night this as levered products 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, much more on the creating volatility in the seeing era sell i don't have market there is an economic impact the asian markets are about to op how should you set up? going on here that's not to find out when we get the age j minimize the health impact but because people are trades coming up in a few uncertain, cancelling schools minutes. we also have the cramer cam on and not flying, that is a real "mad money," jim's take where to economic deflationary shock. put your money as well we don't know how long that's of course coming up at the top going to take. of the hour, live at the nasdaq and part of the reason why in my and ba rhtft ts.ckig aerhi ♪ view the market is so jittery is because of the uncertainty.
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>> yeah. >> how do i price that >> announcer: "options action" what price do i put upon a is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade. three-week stop of travel? what about a six-week stop of travel nobody knows. >> that's where we've been wrong. i was coverage in the show ♪ notice i didn't say coronvirus fierce i said recessionary fears. ♪ people on twitter saying the virus is small and survivable. that's very true, thankfully the markets are not down because ♪ of coronvirus. the markets are down because of the economy. and the economy is being looked hey frank, our worker's comp insurance is expiring, should we at shakily because of the virus. just renew it? yeah, sure. hey there, small i wanted to say that, because i think people misinterpret it business owner. pie insurance here with some sweet advice to stop you from overpaying on 33 billion chinese tourists brought in in terms of dollars worker's comp. try pie instead and save up to 30%. thirty 2018 chinese tourism is down by 95% percent? really? get a quote in do the numbers that's what we are talking 3 minutes at wow, about. >> and none of us try to that is easy. so, need another discount the health portion. our job is to talk about the reminder? no, no no, i'm good. financial impact and subsequent uh, yes please. oh. ho impact on markets. to b.k.'s point, i'm not making ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp it up when i say i was supposed insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at to be at a conference in chicago no matter where you are, xfinity mobile gives you
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at the end of the month of march. that conference has been cancelled. that means i don't wet get on the plane. that's a lot of people now sporting events, museums, cinemas, you can start doing the math in your head. fewer and fewer people are going out. whether that's justified or not i can't say. but it's absolutely real the market should. by the way, we have talked about this, in my opinion, the market was on extraordinarily shaky ground before we ever heard of the coronvirus and i think to your point, this was just a trigger to get us to where we are now >> but if you really think about it, though, when you start to look -- nobody can quantify how many quarters it's going to take to get back to it. but the pushback i have is every time you see a coronvirus headline, the market does shake the most reliable wireless network out. it's a sort of chicken or the to connect you with those who matter most. egg type thing "fast money." when you look at what the that's because it's the network that gives you the best coverage economic impact is on the travel and more flexible data industry and airline, hotels. >> lets look at that you can share, mix with unlimited
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and switch at any time. the long -- >> this is where there may be if you'll save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. you know what. let's go plus, get $300 off when you buy let's talk about american a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. airlines i'm not picking on american but they are theamican airlines sto xfinity mobile. click, call or visit a store today. 40% crazy in one month one month. but we'll get people on the tweet. i was on an american flight yesterday and it was packed. >> packed. >> true. because the market is saying in a month it won't be. or that flight won't exist because they're cutting capacity so one of two things is going to be spectacularly wrong do you believe the economy in a month, karen, will be down 20, 30%? because that's what the market is predicting. >> no, i i don't i think the airlines -- we talked about this a couple days ago -- have a unique business all right. the markets are about to ep up model not good in this for the day in asia. environment where you have heavy lets find out the setup. fixed cost own the planes, you have the labor. those are big costs, right, that infrastructure sheri kang joining us with more
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oil is down, i understand jet from hong kong. fuel is cheaper. but when you have the >> hi there, brian contraction in the model like of course asia kicking things off in a defensive mode. that that's worse than, you know, people not going to a new zealand the first out of the retailer gate to down 1.7% as we speak. that's worse. >> yeah, american lost -- american airlines lost -- and australia futures looking very united if you you are on the damaged as well, down more than radio you can't ee the graphic 2% on the spy futures as well. guy, lost 13% today on t of and of course, when it comes to this particular market, gold 35% declines coming into today. stocks could potentially come to >> delta airlines down 7.5% the rescue because investors went for the today. something safer, gold and that and we're coming into a time we'll know more over the next few weeks. don't discount the fact that a can translate into some resilience in gold stocks as lot of schools are going on spring break this is typically a time of year well but of course we are eyeing the when people travel as families japanese yen carefully lets see what happens there. trading at 106.16. dollars sinking and investors i suspect families aren't traveling like they have in the are going for the safer past lets just see. again i'm not trying to stoke currency and the dollar is down more than 2% against the japanese yen so the flames. >> all the stim sometime in the far this year. in the meantime, though, as we markets this is a systemic are waiting for the chinese selling i have only seen a hand of of times during flash crash market to come online, in about when we saw it during the financial crisis 2.5 hours to go from now here, but this is a systemic selling i
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have never witnessed and chinese stocks actually made up for all the coronvirus related systemic buying that i have never witnessed in my almost 30 stocks or losses, i should say, years on wall street. you know, so far this year >> this is why we've been talking about the idea. earlier this week. >> i know you want to get in the that can actually set a different tone for asia. irony of the thing is everyone keeps thinking about the next leg down is going to be when we brian. >> sheri kang in hong kong see thousands of more cases that giving us a look at the open we didn't know about thank you very much. what's your take on the asian markets here karen. >> the thing i find interesting, the irony is when we see the if you look at asian markets thousands more, that death rate they've had a sharp fall and then a huge rally. shrink that's where we see the if you overlay where the bottom in the market when we see so many more cases coronvirus case is, the growth, >> because the market, b.k. is once the growth slowed down and loor looking out to that like became more linear and then actually slowed even more, so potential threat. you had fewer and fewer cases >> i think what the market, to me -- this is classic every day, the market sort of -- their market looked through that deflationary spiral behavior so give you example, we're and really rallied hard. talking about the airlines i'm supposed to fly in the i don't know if that -- that means we will as well. middle of april. i haven't bought my ticket yet because obviously they are throwing everything they can every day i check it, the price there. but, like we said earlier, this goes down, keeps going down. is a president who has really, if everybody keeps doing that, that's the deflationary spiral you know, pegged his entire sort and that's what the market is of success on how the market trying to price in so how does this end does, how the economy is doing the upside to karen's point, the i wouldn't be surprised at all
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risk here is you have a to see us throeing more than 50 president who is scorecard is the stock market so eventually there is going to basis points. >> and the china a shares, the be something coming from the white house. it has to be a health solution, etf is ashr pach they could one not a financial solution big gap down and rocketed but we'll get that eventually. skyward. look like they said to break but again nobody knows when. out. if you think about what's going and until then you continue the on in there, whether you believe it or not, the factories are deflationary spiral. >> one thing we learned about ramping up people are going back to work. the american consumer is that she and he are exceptionally investors are trying hight ahead of that. resilient and when things pass i think if there is any place in and they will. >> i agree. >> they go back. the world besides gold you want cruise lines, down 50% to be involved i think you look at the a shares i understand they're sort of the in this. >> amazing they are the epicenter and the stock market not thing that you want to think about right now. goes higher. >> baba is remarkable quickly. okay but i remember there have been other situations, and you look it's traded remarkably well. at it. in three years are people remembering this i think karen is onto something they're going to still book cruises. there, breye >> not crazy are they not and then r.c.l. and c.c.l might all right up next, your final trades look cheap. >> that's not a crazy thought at >> not crazy all right up next, your final all. >> thanks. trades >> not crazy all right up next, your final >> appreciate it. >> very good trades >> not crazy no what happens in the interim all right up next, your final trades in >> not crazy all right up next, your final trades an >> not crazy all right up next, your final
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i mean, i love to look at value. trades at outback, steak & lobster is back. i'm not looking at cruise lines yet zwloo not yet. >> not yet. >> what's it going to take. >> rcl down 50 petros year to date i hear you and karen what karen mentioned about the airlines, before we even got into coronvirus headlines, the cruise line had a bunch of headwinds thrown at it as well that could take longer than the other trade. but i agree with you and karen, at some point it's a buy it's down. it's getting extremely close, now 50% off. >> at some point -- unless they go out of business you are buying the equity at some point maybe that's not here. karen says no. >> i don't know. >> thank you for the compliment. that's not crazy that's a compliment from karen all right the breakdown in yields raising new concerns. in the credit market as if we didn't have enough to worry. let's bring in steve liesman to oh no! it's gone! phew! it's back, with lobster mac & cheese. talk about this where the health it's gone again! it's back, with shrimp now! crisis, semi market crisis now steak & lobster starting at only $16.99. bleeding to credit problems i and if you want outback at home, order now!
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mean it's a natural extension of what's going on if you think outback steakhouse. about it, brian. fears of recession, fears of decline in revenue, fears of decline in sales and profits raises questions in this world of hialeah leveraged companies with a lot of debt out there look, going into this every appearance is they were in pretty good shape. there was a lot of debt out there. when yowhat do you see?itical issues facing our world, but the economy was doing well we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. the coverage ratios were pretty good some of the debt -- some of the we see harnessing natural gas debts or covenants written were unleashing the promise of clean energy. on the iffy or light side. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. but we talked to all three major at emerson, when issues become inspiration, credit rating agencies and they all for lack of better focusing core strengths to create a better world term have the hair standing up isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. on the back of their neck. there will be more s&p -- s&p told me the pace of downgrades emerson. consider it solved. will quicken fitch has yet to downgrade with a nation-leading $150 billion commitment anyone because of the koefrpz. only 27 companies at the s&p of to infrastructure, the 4,000 corporates have been we're creating state of the art, 21st century transportation hubs,
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downgraded because of he constructing new bridges, cornera. it's samsenite and saber some of the weaker airlines. bringing high-speed internet to every corner of the state, when you get to the sovereign space you want to look at and committing to low-cost clean energy. countries, for example, that get with infrastructure built for the future, the predominant of revenue to the companies of tomorrow can thrive here today. service debt from tourism. you want to look at commodity see your future at countries and companies. those are the ones you know what's going on in the debt of the oil patch. >> noticed some action, some midstreamers were able to sell with the dow punching 1,000 debt or raise debt i want to bring up one points i'm breaking down the instrument too because you are volatile tape. always looking for the litmus at and making senz it and the stock up 123% in a year. the time bk, investor seen we i'm talking to generac. are bank lone etf. if our audience wants to look at one thing going forward for a litmus test. >> big kun coming up tomorrow look at that, the bkln morning. don't miss larry cudd low first my opinion, i think you want to look at that on squawk on the street tomorrow porng talking about the economy. it's full of investment grade and mid-speculative grade. by the way, a jobs report at we haven't seen the trickle-through yet. 8:00 o'clock we may be at the beginning >> everybody is on watch right -- 8:30 tomorrow morning and now. look this is not the financial nobody seems to care
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crisis at this point and there we'll talk with larry about all is not the expect it becomes that that's going on. but the idea that there will be time for the final trade steve kick it off. >> snapchat the final trade, it downgrades, and investors need was the final trade last night to be careful. if a yield on the corporate bond in the seas of red there was one looks too good to be true, it probably is. stock rhymes with app chat if a dividend yield on a stock buy. >> bk. >> i think in this environment, looks too good to be true, there is a reason for that which can the case for gold and bitcoin probably be found in the balance couldn't be better sheet of the corporation. you look at potentially currency >> steve, you are talking to both central bankers rating devaluations, competitive devaluations you want to own agencies prior to this we had weakness in gold and you want to own europe when i look at the european bitcoin. >> yes. banks, the charts of the >> karen. >> the scariest thing to do is european banks they look awful, sell puts when you own on the cliff of death. i'll sell today and tomorrow is anybody concerned that if you didn't like them at 14 perhaps in tips europe into a with the vix you can't be a deeper recession and the european banks have an issue. buyer at 42. >> the goldman sachs upgraded >> most certainly. i will tell you also going into this fed officials were already, fire eye higher today feye. before this, complaining about >> may be the only thing that the high levels of corporate debt in the u.s. and app chat higher today. let me give the other side of great show as usual. this which makes the short in in we'll see you tomorrow night market a bit of a wild card. "mad money" thimrar ar rht now cme
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which is yields- spreads have my mission is simple, to make you money risen for high grade yields of speck active credit but interest i'm here to level the playing rates are also down. field for all investors. that helps with the cash flow. there is always a bull market the other thing is there could somewhere, and i promise to help be bailouts, the imf and world you find it. "mad money" starts now bank came forward and said we put out the welcome mat for countries having trouble that's an important issue that hey, i'm cramer. something that looks like it may go down it's possible it could welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica be helped by a bailout other people want to make europe is another issue unto friends. i'm just trying to save you some itself. >> the high-yield market here money. my job is to entertain, but more any big deals pending? importantly, to educate and i haven't seen much activity in teach. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc the last few days. >> i think you haven't seen or tweet m anything because there is nothing to see i have read enormous number of debt research reports recently i think i saw something where it said there had been no deals or one deal in the last several weeks. i have to check. i will let you noy but there aren't deals out there. which raises another question, which is of liquidity. there will be some companies that have to roll over the debt. and they were structured in a way, that the credit markets are
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open, no problem rolling that could be a problem if any come to roll and they can't roll because the liquidity is dried up this is a potential problem in the speculative grade credits, not in the investment grade. when i look at the walls which are what comes due when. investment grade is a couple years down the road. they have been smart over the period of low rates, done what we called termed out which is extended the debt and refinanced lower on the investment grade. >> steve, and it's easy to take pot shots i'm not here to do that but i want to ask the question hopefully notco convoluted, steve mentioned something hasn't seen in his career where you have the thousand points upside, thousand pointsdownside over a mart of days i would suggest it's complacent isi built up over the last ten years as manifested in the volatility index, because in my opinion, the federal reserve has been the back stop and people have gotten lazy in terms of risk thinking the fed has our back now you have a vix that went
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from 14 to 40. and people are paying the price. does the fed -- do you think they acknowledge that maybe they've added to the complacency of what's been an extraordinarily complacent market. >> i think there is concern about that eric rosengren, the boston fed president spoke about this he was opposed to the rate cuts we went through because of that reason he was one of the guys before the market got spooked who flagged wework as a problem as an issue out there he was concerned about that. there are those who are concerned. i will tell you their operational standpoint in the face of this is what's called can i get music, macroprugh contention to make it palatable, the idea of doing it from a supervisory standpoint, get the banks for holding too much speculative stuff on the books so you don't have to adjust monetary policy to keep the economy from going into a bubble that could burst that's been their idea since the financial crisis will it work we haven't been through this yet. we perhaps -- and unfortunately we might find out on the
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backside. >> steve, second time at the nasdaq today i believe you were on this morning. >> so much fun here. and going over to the george washington bridge is maybe one of my favorite things. >> couple times a day. >> does sarcasm translate? does it work on tv i don't know i want to make sure. >> thank you very much, steve. appreciate that. look look at the hyg the j and k, anything else you are watching, b.bk. >> the bkln is really interesting. because steve talked about the fact that the fed is concerned about the banks. my view is i don't think we have a problem with u.s. banks. all the fire trucks are right outside the banks with the hoses ready to go in case of fire. that's not where the risk is the risk is in the the leverage loan on investment manager balance sheets the risks are in foreign investors that have invested in these things, searching for yield. so i wouldn't worry about u.s. banks what so far. i would be worried about all the other stuff, the leveraged loans and those type things. even in the oil patch those things
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that's where you see if this health crisis turns into and morphs into something else, again, i don't know if it' happening. i'm not saying it is but that's what investors have to watch and see if it starts to. >> this is sounding grow tevfik but there are financial predators out there that have outcomes that they would like to see. and if you are looking to. >> wax one. >> this is not to say people are out there saying -- but think all the instruments. used to be if you wanted to short the stock now you don't like a short, you short it, short the etfs you are in and buy the triple short dom i there is all the instruments you can use. >> remember that body blow, knock him out. >> problem is what steve said where he left off thinking about there could be a bailout which turns the scenario on its head. >> and then boom. >> keeps people held at bay whoa you see these are transitory hopefully transitory issues you might see a bogey taking on a
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lot. >> we got to get could we have a 2,000 point up day on the dow. >> absolutely. absolutely. >> markets in turmoil. >> markets in a different way? in. >> in a different way. copping up check out costco on the move after latest earnings they've been the main retailer at the center of this, people rushing to buy a hundred rolls of toilet paper for some reason. we're talking more about costco and dive into numbers there. another rough day we talked about for oil and energy any opportunity here maybe we'll hit that as well be sure to check out app download it today. 'rba aerhis. >> announcer: the cnbc program sponsored by invesco qqq
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lrts welcome back to "fast money" tonight. another wild day on wall street. escalating economic fearsing down the dow more than 900 points added one point more than 1,000 points we didn't finish on the low. if you want to find a silver lining we finished down 969 on the it would now an earnings alert right now and one name probably more closely tied to the action on
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the retail side that's costco. courtney reagan at hq with more on their numbers. >> costco beating on prove it and revenue for the quarter. comparable sales up 9% including gasoline also above analyst estimates that's the quarter ending february 16path process kaskto gave full month sales. and they noted up tick for the last week of february associatewood the coronvirus and consumer purchasing. costco estimates that that added that surge in purchasing added 3 percentage points to make it 12.1% for the monthly comp growth for the full company for the full month of february now, cfo richard gallanty giving more detail moments ago on the earnings call. take a listen. >> we're getting deliveries daily. but still not enough given the increased levels of demand on certain key items.
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bits been a little crazy in terms of outsize shopping frequency and sales levels and not only in the united states. >> he went on to talk about how they are going to have to do some limits. but it's going to vary by store and region and giving shout out to the team members working through that because it's an evolving scenario. now they said the membership fees came in higher than what estimates were for the request e-commerce sales grew 28% and the timing of the week later thanksgiving bumped up e-commerce sales for the quarter by 11% and that's with the outages we are the reported around thanksgiving and black friday ultimately the thanksgiving timing still helped prop up the total comp sales again for the quarter by half a% and they are seeing strong sales in the next quarter because of everything going on with the coronvirus barak back do you. >> courtney, thank you very much karen obviously costco sees sales boom in some ways.
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but is it stealing forward. >> costco is fantastic doing well in any market up, down, flat extraordinary, the execution is always spot on but for other names -- i wouldn't be buying a 3 m because they make masks or color ox. because we might look through the -- microsoft cloud growth slowed down a quarter or two, we'll look through that. but i think we would also look through a chlorox or 3 m because ultimately it goes back down and it's expensive to gear up quickly, fulfill demand that sky rockets. >> i find it -- first of all, costco we have been on this for a while. valuation is going to matter at a sen point. this is trading close though 34 times next year's numbers. the numbers are fantastic. i get all that margins slightly disappointing, not a big deal with that said i find it fascinating that people are stocking up on toilet paper. either they're beyond meat
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eaters or know something i don't know either case is not particularly god. i think you are pulling forward. listen, 325, the all-time high you enjoyed the run up in the stock. there is nothing wrong with taking profits costco. >> putting a bow on it look at the membership fee that's the annuity in the stock that rebounded quickly off the two hundred day moving average. >> there is a group of stocks people are buying as a coronvirus portfolio small biotech. be careful more "fast money" coming up on the big day for the markets. here's what's ahead after the break. >> it's one of the biggest sectors in the market. and what's happening in tech could be sending a broader signal for where stocks are going. how concerned should you be? and an options bet paying off big for one of our traders where he sees stock of zoom video going now. we have that and a whole lot more when "fast money" returns screening at her house.
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all right welcome become stocks once again sounding the alarm today about economic concerns the dow down at one point more than 1,000 points, finished the day down 969 the nasdaq was the relatively outperformer, falling, quote, only 3.1%. the dow is actually up 1% for a 12-month period. another day like today will wipe out all of last year's gains as well now this extreme volatility probably has you wondering where we are headed affection. how is it possible basically what's going on? mark newton of newton advisers at the plasma with the hope i guess to figure out what's going on where we go. >> thanks. we're trying to understand the era of volatility.
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where do we stand and what's the damage that's been done? you look at s&p filberly and a couple things come to mind you recognize initially when rerally inned february highs the momentum was lower on the new highs. oochlt of the broader based equal waited indices was not at new highs. we saw the shift to defensive trading. we saw the overconcentration of a lot of stocks spoots the s&p then all of a sudden treasury yields broke and s&p broke with did. down to 285 which is about 50% of the entire move up since 2018 we have tried to stable ieds it's been a tentative rally. s&p down almost a a hundred. but yet we didn't get under yesterday's lows put that in perspective. the bottom line is my thinking we get to 3180 at a maximum but any rally into april is likely something to sell into given momentum starting to really roll over if you look at longer term chars charts put if perspective. here is the rally since '09 we
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haven't done damage yet in the longer term trend but the line that held four or pfeifer times since 2009 this area is down near 2,500 that's a long way away initially what investors want to look at do we get under the lows last week. 2855 if so, then yes interests fear right now we have oversold conditions on a short-term basis but we can't rule out a move down there over the next couple months particularly if coronvirus accelerates and our country and others let's look at one group i think is important that's important tech actually peaked out in january. markets moved to new highs tech on equal weighted bases did not. this is the s&p equal weighted technology index versus the s&p itself it shows you how tech as a broad-base equal weighted group is doing not just the fang, not the just the microsoft and google but all of them. this started to break down last week this is a short-term negative.
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tech at 22%. yields pulling back. that's affecting financials. the broader trend is intact for tech if we see this give way i have bigger concern about tech and the entire market starting to really roll over for now it's intact but we see the short-term weakness. with that in mind will let's look at the stock i like here. with all of this cornera a lot of russ doing netflix and chilling in the months to come this is a stock i like netflix held up remarkably well. stock got broke out of the longer term triangle pattern, stalling out a bit but it's acting very, very well. so outside of buying apple and facebook, i don't care about those as much. but this stock makes good sense from how consumers could be positioned and technically makes sense as well. >> mark newton come on back and join us at the desk. thank you. now steve mark flagged important levels in the s&p 500. do you agree are you watching the levels? >> so i am and i agree
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because i flagged that 2855 level last thursday. and that was the level that stuck out to me because dwas the october 3rd low. if you look at the october 3rd low through the prism that's the level we had to hold to mark, if we break that level, the 285 5 level, i don't know necessarily -- the way i look at it through your lens, it's 2855, 3180 to the upside playing in there for a trading level, how much of a chance do you see us breaking the 2855 and heading ultimately -- because this is where panic sets in -- to the 2350 level that's panic this is trading, this is volatility what are the odds of breaking the 2855 level. >> at least 50% because we haven't seen the stalkt in treasury yields and that's a driver of financials to the downside groups like transportation are rolling over as well we have seen a decent bounce off the lows
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but yet volume was lacking yesterday up day had the lowest volume on the spy since prior monday it hasn't been a great breadth move as we saw technology has been breaking down of late that's a concern if you don't have financials and technology that's 40% of the market much you need evidence of the groups stabilizing, i think before you can see any real rally. we need to see stabilization no need to be the hero and pick the bottom momentum rolled over on a weekly basis and i'm watching that. >> the weighting have really changed, changing how the market trades and we learned it the good way a number of years now learning the hard way mark thank you. speaking of sectors that don't really matter that machine much, energy stocks hitth hard on the selloff. we break down what might be next for the group, only 4.5% of the mechanic used to be 15 processor. later on there is something interesting happening in china stocks that has one ever our
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traders scratching his head and wondering, is there opportunity overseas, because maybe they're ahead of it? we want to talk about that when "fast money" returns the barkins are empty nesters now. so it doesn't make a whole lot of financial sense for them to stay in this great big house. but, well, this is home. it's where they raised their three boys. could they downsize? sure. will they? not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. planning for the future is about more than just money. let equitable be your guide.
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lets all right and along with stocks. oil fell as well losing another 1.5% today. now down 25% this year hovering around the lows for more than a year ago and oil stocks have led, doing far worse because of the debt load the stocks walloped and economic slowdown fierce. you have too much supply, too much demand. guy adami we could be looking at a situation where there is three million barrels day of excess supply that's 240 million barrels over a matter of a couple of different weeks. the last time we saw that kind of supply oil was at $25 a barrel would you buy any of the oil stocks. >> we've said if you want to play some of the levered names for trades they are interesting oxy. and obviously that was a terrible call yesterday down 4% today. but i will tell you the last year 1/2 we've been saying stay away from the big cap integrated names. and now on top of everything
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with in whole esg thing, now -- you talk about the exogenous risk that's the one. exxon trading at levels we haven't even in 13 years you know the exact date probably it's ng. it's not good. you say it's valuation -- well that's the reason to own it incorrectly literally the last $25. >> would bk buy bp. >> bk sold short oil on the headlines -- opec came out said they want to cut 19.5 million barrels a day. >> that's a lot but not a deal yet. >> i know but oil rallied and failed you get what would be good news bad price action that's a market that bk wants to short. >> there is nothing that seems to be able to rally the commodity. we have seen the cuts. the cuts are useless when you look at saudi aramco. i had a belief you are looking at the top of the energy market there. even though a small sale, why do they want to give up the goods if they believe there is greener pastures ahead
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i think guy touches on something we have been talking about the esg investing has taken the legs out of the chemical trade, the whole entire fossil fuel trade. and there is something going on. if oil can't rally, and oil breaks the $42 level which has been support back to 2016, you're looking at a world of hurt for a lot of the companies. and to wrap it all up, there is going to be a lot of debt levels these guys are carrying they're unable to continue on. >> not everybody. >> doesn't matter what they've got. >> i can tell you every company's net debt to ebidta level from up here i sent out a screen thought, it's down 17%. high cost, high debt, bakken. >> new orleans gas. >> still down. all the companies. >> i'm talking about exxon 7% dividend yield. >> and and down 28 how many days to lose that. >> i'm not debating.
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i-era i'm creasele yan but you can't buy for the dividend they're down 28% the one areas one should be refineders where you see the input costs come down. that should be a tailwind. value roe down. >> what about the midstreamers, pipeline companies i know there are some midstreamers like i said earlier able to raise debt one big one going on right now i can't say who. there is a market for some -- we're moving a lot of liquids. >> you're being traded as a planning et over all the names. >> that's my point. >> that provides the opportunity. >> when everyone dumping everything. >> do you think esg investing is going away or getting bigger my answer is it's getting bigger the names unfortunately there is a lot of great companies within the sector i think they're being thrown out. >> who is a great company. >> i like the refiners i like eog some of the e and p companies. there is a host of e and p
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companies that are takeout candidates who takes them out. >> big are ones when he they build wind minimums i'm not kidding. are you look forgive a green shoot in the sea of red. this stock did well, almost doubling this year there are some things up this sn
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