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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  March 6, 2020 9:00am-11:00am EST

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what really drove this and the fed had good process in place in the last couple and a half years but i didn't see that this time. we just got to do this and the explanation was lacking compared to previous moves. i think they have to explain what they're doing a little bit more i noticed a difference this time and hope that comes back >> thank you so very much. thank you, everybody >> you're welcome. >> you're in for, we'll see what happens today but make sure you join us next week. "squawk box" -- "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. markets are going to try to hang onto their gains for the week as dow futures down about 700 coronavirus cases now number 100,000 around the world, as investors ask what more can central banks do europe's down more than 3% ten-year yield did touch 69 basis points, oil down 4% as russia's balking on additional
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cuts so futures are pointing to further declines despite the jobs growth today, smashing expectations for february. the economy added 273,000 jobs during the month, versus the expected 175 unemployment rate 3.5. wall street looking to close out a turbulent week, the ten-year did tumble below 70 basis points for the first time ever, as investors look for safety amid fears. revisions on the jobs number not bad but people are calling it the least important jobs number in a long time >> i don't want to go there. i'm going to say the opposite. when you come in with a head of steam, at least you got some possibilities that we're not going to go immediately into the recession because there were -- you don't hire and then lay them off the next day the 53,000 jobs in food services and drinking places, that's an extraordinary number are we going to fire all those people interesting. >> not right away. >> not right away. >> but there seems to be a growing belief that we are going to have a recession.
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>> right but i'm saying this makes it so it's -- >> because of what has been a drastic shutdown in what we talked about every day here for the last two weeks >> we're a service economy and it's service that's under attack, not manufacturing. china was manufacturing. here, travel and leisure, dining out, buying houses >> it would be nice to have imagined a world without corona and this number would have been proof for the rally that we had had up until recently. >> right you would sell gold and interest rates would be soaring obviously buying gold interest rates going down, almost as if these trade bonds all the time, almost as if bonds are manipulate how do you manipulate the u.s. treasury >> you wouldn't think you could on the two-year but the moves are so dramatic, there are some people talking about the idea there's some macro funds doing something out there. >> doesn't it feel like -- >> i don't know. i don't know
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>> -- everything is trading and bonds weren't that bad so to speak, meaning interest rates so bizarre were higher and the number is down 27 and i workout and i come back and the s&p is down 79 and i say to myself, did anything really happen >> does that force those 0.72 force the fed's hand in some way? >> they want the triple whammy, want to make money on the two, they want to make money on the ten and the fed funds, they being funds that say i can take advantage of this. i'll take advantage of the fear. i'll profit here >> that's a shocking move. getting the equity market. >> what that says is there's going to be a shutdown in the economy and how long can we last unless you put money in the hands of people. there are lots of businesses that are handed out and also businesses, i look at this versus 2008, the balance sheets are incredible now, no one is going to care about that but they should
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>> then what is going on with high yield and investment grade cdx spreads? higher of the year people said that was the scariest part of yesterday was the feeling of credit as opposed to stocks. >> right, we probably can't see exactly what's going to be hurt except for the obvious, which is the airlines, the cruise ships >> if you're a high levered entity related to the travel and leisure industry, you've got serious trouble. >> yes i'd hang myself with my tie except for i don't have one. joke >> there are deals that people are concerned with as well, will they call forced majour on the deals. >> is this time for xerox to lever up that makes sense the fees sore great, david, the banks need 'em don't you ever think that the fees aren't great there. >> fees would be significant hp would be buying back an enormous amount of stock if they don't do it. >> no fees >> that's sort of separate from what we're talking about >> greed is separate
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>> fear seems to be taking the lead >> well we have a little greed we could have a little more mallacy on wall street the company that makes these, this is a really important thing. >> by the way, enrique laures said anecdotally increase in pc sales because people are staying at home, upgrade to have the right video capability on their pcs at home if we move to more people working from home >> opt is up back, it facilitates. the needle in the haystack stock market is difficult. >> we've been talking about facebook for example as a tool people would use at home needham cuts numbers because in their view, when you're half of global display advertising, it's an easy thing for companies to cut back on. >> look, i think there's a lot of decisions that are made assuming this is the bubonic
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plague i don't think that by the way, plague years really good, william dafoe, like robinson crusoe, very good, puts this in perspective. you want perspective, you have to go back to books that were written that are amazing you can't look at this stuff -- i have 17 different viral experts all saying different things i go to the "journal of the plague" here and get a little perspective. >> that is the problem, jim. there seems to be no consistency although a handful of people reading the primary material coming out of china. >> good stuff out of china >> they're not particularly sanguine >> there's nothing to be sanguine about look, i'm just saying it seems to be, again, we're not experts, the older and the not well >> but there are some people who are not in that cohort who are getting sick, very sick, and some dying as well >> there's no doubt about it
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>> this is not the flu this is not the flu. >> let's say it's 350,000 people in america worst case that i've heard, all right? it's terrible. we'll get through it it's terrible. >> i've heard much larger cases. people think 40% to 70% of the u.s. population. >> i mean die. >> well do the numbers >> i just did the numbers. let's move on. >> yeah, as we've been saying, it's not the number of people themselves who are getting sick, it's the measures people are taking to avoid spread >> right >> states of emergency in three states, california, maryland, washington schools are closed in seattle. 2,700 in quarantine in new york city alone >> and look, let me just distinguish my friend, david i am not minimizing this >> no, you have not been all along. >> maybe you're right. >> nobody knows exactly. the people going to the primary material that is really the only
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one available from china and looking at it tell me that it's not a pretty picture >> no, it's not but remember, only 300 people in the shanghai region last night? >> but china has done things we can't do in this country >> totalitarian state. it can protect itself. >> not permitting people to leave their homes except for an hour a day, whatever it might be it's not simply something that we seem prepared to do in this country to truly stem what might be a nationwide, worldwide outside. talking about a virus that has gone over the globe in three months >> "journal of the plague" here, perspective. if you're working at jpmorgan and watch your stock go down 30 points and then you watch your leader have a heart procedure, do you say i want to double down on my position >> i know. people look at the banks, they look at the energy complex >> exxon had a eeting, people hated it >> they say these things are going to be, are so cheap at
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this point, eventually this will pass and i will happy that i took a position at this point. >> they're going to get this cheaper. do you think carnival cruise, i don't like it when you call it cruise i don't like it when i take a cruise that stock, let's look at that, that stock is at 27. yield is 7 any faith in that? royal caribbean, any faith >> those are at the heart of the storm here >> those are big companies and there's 2,000 people per workers and from all different countries, that work on these cruise ships they are fabulous generators of jobs >> right >> guys, as you're talking, the president's making some comments as he is signing the $8.3 billion supplemental that passed the senate yesterday, 96-1 he says expects the markets to bounce back, says the dow hasn't been that bad, says he'll have dinner with the brazilian leader
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at mar-a-lago this weekend, not going to the cdc in atlanta today as previously planned and reiterates the fed should cut rates which is a big topic of discussion today goldman out with what they could do if they get to the zero lower. negative rates are going to happen they don't think there's support for it >> i hope not. >> i hope not. that's a sign of tremendous weakness which we don't want >> very, very difficult for your banking system >> yes and very difficult for savers and the people being attacked by this are also the people trying to save. so i'm not included in that, but we want as a manhattan project to beat this, because it's going to take manhattan project. we know it this thing is mutating, all the things you don't want to hear. you need a manhattan project you know what, david a second ago, i thought i reached my coffee but i reached for my 70% isopropyl alcohol wipes by mistake
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thank heavens they got a lid on them they are in a troubled position but we had washington say we are going to get the greatest minds and solve this i would like that. i've had scientists -- >> others say we really want to act as china z we need to shut down things and there's an unwillingness to do that given the economic ramifications of doing so >> the american way has never been totalitarian and the american way is ingenuity. >> there are lots of people getting on planes going all over the place. still people >> i think the schools should be shut, who am i >> the vir lus will potentially spread as a result of that >> what we do in this country is we take advantage of great minds, the ingenuity and win wars, and this is a war. and we win them and we will win. we will win. >> who are you speaking for there? >> united states of america. >> are you, do you have some sort of official title that i'm
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unaware of are you mustering the troops here maybe you should >> hey, my dad was a citizen, he went to war. what was he? he wasn't a soldier until he was a soldier. i'd like to think we can all play a role in trying to figure out what would do it >> wash your hands if you in the slightest way are sick, don't go out >> the countries if you focus on a war, the countries that we beat were totalitarian countries with ingenuity why can't we do it again all i'm saying i have every single biotech guy i talked to, had them all on "mad money." by the way, happy 15th, david. >> happy 15th, jim >> "mad money's" 15th anniversary today and jim is going to ring the bell >> i had sam gamo on yesterday they feel they can get the lines together >> does that mean in some way it
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will be faster than the year, year and a half we continue to hear truly expected for a real vaccine for this virus >> it's not the beubonic plague. we may miss a year we may miss a year you saw dr. fauci say to the president, stop being so optimistic about the vaccine this is a man who helped solve aids which was supposed to kill millions killed way too many, but we beat it >> fauci was on the "today" show this morning, said there were some missteps in getting tests out early, due to technical issues but that's being remedied as the cdc gets to work on a heightened level the president last night on fox, this town hall talked about how the coronavirus may impact the economy. >> we were set to hit 30,000 on the dow. this is a number that nobody ever even came close to, and already we have the number, down 10% or 11%, still the highest it's been by far it might have an impact.
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at the same time i have to say people are staying in the united states, spending their money in the u.s., and i like that. it could have a very long-term plan we hope that doesn't happen but we have plans for every single possibility and i think that's what we have to do we hope it doesn't last too long >> we're going to talk to larry kudlow about the jobs number and also about what stimulus is warranted, ex-fed in this country. >> i thought jason firma's piece this morning, adviser to president obama in the op-ed section of the "wall street journal" is good you have to put money in people's pockets a lot of the people who are going to lose their jobs again the job number is very good, are people who work at institutions that are thinly capitalized, and they work hard and they need something to tide them over until they get back on their feet, find another job, in another area of the economy. does that make me a part of the administration >> well, i am trying to connect the dots and understand what's
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going on in the financial markets and the virus itself, the likelihood of a recertification. you heard jeff gunlach yesterday, someone always worth listening to >> right look, i think you can be -- i'm not saying he is crying wolf i'm not saying he's chicken little it's good to know the negative case and let's try to avoid the negative case, not just say it has to be. i mean, we keep coming back -- when i was a little boy, you couldn't go outside. why? because of polio, and then salk solved polio you're supposed to get polio, not solve it, and that's positive >> you're looking for -- >> american scientist. >> looking for a jonas salk so come around and make it happen >> you bet i do. it happened before, a guy named fauci. >> and it will happen again, it might take a year and a half >> but ingenuity would l trump totalitarian any day of the week >> that is not an argument that's going on here
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>> total tarianism >> i'm not saying. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and count down to the opening bell we will get to amd, costco, starbucks, twitter, and jpmorgan in a moment. at leaf blowers. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today.
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with the come back to "squawk on the street. welcome back we begin our final trading day ten minutes from now co costco reported. >> astonishing number. you have to use costco and amd as a mesh uf of the decline. amd had a fabulous meeting costco has been able to weather pretty much any storm. so strong there was a question about the balance sheet and whether it allowed them the current interest rate environment to think about a buy-back capital structure how many companies are in that great shape? they have a special dividend talk about a company that is
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crushing it all over the globe including shanghai >> including in china, where they had obviously very strong sales until the virus. >> right >> they're also a beneficiary here of everybody coming out and buying a lot of things >> double digit. their biggest problem? stocking all of the merchandise that they need, double-digit all over the place they had people working around the clock. they have a tremendous structure of dedicated people almost as dedicated, david, as cliff mason from "mad money" our writer and mark hoffman who green lighted "mad money," our ceo, chairman, all here because it's our 15th and regina gilgan, our unbelievable executive producer. >> you have an incredible team i like to pick my people from occasionally >> you steal people. >> i appreciate that you let me have >> that is your m.o. >> you know me you steal all of my ceo guests and i occasionally take a member of your great staff to help me do my job. >> approach my wife, who is here, lisa
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>> she is here, lisa as well and brian stihl. great group here today >> i am very lucky to have an amazing team and be at an amazing network. i don't want to belabor that on a day people will lose money but i'm proud of regina, cliff, mark hoffm hoffman, lisa detwiler puts up with me. >> we're proud of you and the work you've done for so long if t is amazing to watch you come in here every day and continuing your darned day >> today is just another day get it this is let's get it done day. >> today is just another day, all right. stick around we have a lot more "squawk on the street," of course this gentleman to my right will be ringing the opening bell to celebrate that 15 years of "mad money" and don't forget, we'll open and it doesn't look good, at least if you're long this market right now things can change. stay with us it all starts with an invitation. to feel exhilaration. the invitation to lexus sales event
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." live from the financial capital of the world, 15 years of "mad money," jim will ring the opening bell in just about six minutes. the president, meantime, has signed the $8.3 billion coronavirus emergency spending package and made some comments as well. let's take a listen. >> and something some of you are coming along, i assume, is that right? [ inaudible >> okay, so we're signing the 8.3 billion. i asked for 2.5 and i got 8.3.
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i'll take it so here we are, 8.3 billion, doing very well, but it's an unforeseen problem, came out of nowhere, but we're taking care of it. we have big news on the ship, and a lot of things are happening on the ship. people are being tested right now, and i just spoke to the governor of california, gavin newsom, we had a good conversation we're both working on the ship together it's close to 5,000 people, so big ship we're doing testing on those people okay could i have those other papers i have to sign, please
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these are additional relative to various things. do you have anything to say to the press? >> i just want to make it clear in terms of tests, we have provided all the tests in the state of washington and the state of california that they've asked for. the production and shipping of tests that we talked about all week is completely on schedule, all of the cdc tests, the tests that are available to test up to 75,000 people, cdc has shipped to america's public health labs,
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those are out, that ivt, the private contractor working with cdc to ship to the private sector and hospitals has already shipped enough tests for 700,000 tests, and the remaining lots are arriving at cdc this morning for quality control and should get out as we forecast this weekend, and that next week, we'll keep ramping up production, so as many as 4 million tests next week are going to be driving forward. so everything is on schedule for the tests. >> mr. president, why aren't you going to cdc today >> he's actually -- >> we may go they thought there was a problem at cdc with somebody that had the virus. it turned out negative, so we're seeing if we can do it, but yesterday afternoon, we were informed that there was a person sick may have been with the virus and they found out it was a negative test. they tested the person fully and
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it was a negative test so i may be going. we'll see if they can turn it around we may be going. here, steve, this is for you, after covering me so well. [ laughter ] first time i've ever done that to a reporter. >> reporter: how big of a hit to the economy are you expecting? >> the job numbers were incredible, we picked up close to 80,000 new jobs from last report you add that up, it's over 350,000 jobs job numbers came out a little while ago and they were shocking to the people that were analyzing. >> do you expect more gyrations? >> a lot of people are staying here, doingtheir business here traveling here and they'll be going to resorts here, and you know, the places where so far people come but americans staying home and spending instead of other countries
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maybe that's one of the reasons the job numbers sore good. a lot of travel inside the usa >> reporter: do you think congress or your administration needs to take more action to minimize the risk of recession >> all we can do is what we do we get a lot of word, you've done that for a long time but people are staying here and spending their money here as opposed to going to europe and other places >> that is the president signing an $8.3 billion measure to help tackle the coronavirus outbreak, which has now killed 12 people in the united states, and infected more than 200 of course, the number of cases around the world exceeded 100 tun f ,000 for the first time. jim is at the balcony today as "mad money" rings the bell with 15 years to celebrate. jim, congratulations >> thank you, carl thank you very much. when we started, i was taller
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than everyone. [ cheers and applause >> let it ring >> tell me when! [ bell ringing ] [ bell ringing ] [ cheers and applause >> thank you thank you, everyone. thank you, team. thank you, regina. >> no hugging. >> no hugging, i'm sorry, you're absolutely right sorry, i had a little joy. no joy allowed, forgot that. gentlemen, david >> yes >> i would have thought in my honor, you would wear a tie. >> i forgot. >> you forgot. >> friday i don't wear ties. >> i am proud of both teams, not just one team.
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but i love you guys. thank you very much. >> the cam camera, you can get the set in the back. >> fantastic >> all right, jim, we are so proud of you me and david especially and everything that you have done for investors around the world, with this concept that you created 15 years ago at the nasdaq, by the way it's the biopharma and health care industries town 750 to start the day, david. ten-year did crack below 70 basis points record low 69.2 basis points and that's going to be the focus today. we have three s&pers in the green. >> when we cross the 1% threshold a couple of days ago people thought they'd never seen anything like that they said that, jeff ubben, long time activist investor talking about how it's thrown the ability to be a value investor into real question 0.70 or 0.693 which is our low,
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0.692 even more so, the question becomes does this pressure the feds to potentially act to catch up to the bond market? the two-year also of course has been setting new records as well on the positive as you know, carl, and dieia no olick wi dial adjust over time, one bright spot but there is some question here about manipulation in the bond market. sounds hard to believe but the liquidity may not be what you expect it is, according to what i'm hearing and there are certainly those who benefit from that as for the impact on stock, we have the s&p down over 2.6% right now and as you just said, carl, it's hard to find any green on my screen at this point. >> indeed. got the vix once again approaching 48, which is going to be a focus as well today. interesting, there's been a few calls out, jpmorgan says the effects of covid-19 are going to be large in their words but
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temporary, and that once it subsides, the fiscal and monetary response, david, will last it's not going to get yanked back at the last minute and as a result they are overweighting equities and underweighting bonds. >> there is this belief that again, of course, and as we all hope, this will pass and pass relatively quickly and we will be left with a landscape that looks very different in terms of rates even lower than we'd ever anticipated. hard to imagine if you had an economy that's adding as many jobs as we just reported this morning, you would have rates anywhere near where they are, but this is in anticipation of what we know is going to be a potentially severe slowdown overall in activity, carl, i think there's another question, when you have a recession, which seems more likely, certainly than it did even a week, two weeks, three weeks ago, you know, what do you find out, its that he old warren buffett line, when the tide goes in, you find out who is actually swimming naked, and so what do you
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uncover that you were not aware of and what impact does that have i think is a key question many people in the financial markets are asking and worrying about. not that we'll have a financial crisis necessarily, anything like we did in 2008, but there is sort of concern, you know, that we will find some real weak spots that we're not anticipating at this point >> bay crest has done some work this morning if we close down more than 2.8%, you're looking at a pattern that you have not seen since '87, five consecutive daily moves of 2.8 or more. hasn't happened since october of '87, even in the tech bubble, jim, even if 'n '08 never saw fe consecutive days with those moves. >> 1987, remember the week before black monday was one of the worst weeks ever, there was no liquidity and no liquidity because of portfolio insurance the market had been up, sold at 29p in march of that year, went
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down to 13pe david you mentioned ma nip place, but inability of institutions to be able to handle sell orders at the heart because remember, there was no recession. whatsoever >> 1987. >> 1987 carl is talking about the last time we had something like this. to me, people have now become 60% of the people are now index people there are stocks right now i would buy. i know that that's what i say with great trepidation you don't know what money will be like. as warren buffett said the dow was at 8,000, it could go lower, but there were some buys >> what were interest rates in 1987 >> 7 >> what was the market structure like >> i was in cash for '87 because of karen cramer, which was remarkable moment for me, but we then -- we were short j&j, how stupid that was, we ended up
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making 100% and right now i look at things like costco which i talked about and you know what do i want to start buying costco okay i'm willing. you can't get in to costco look at what lisa sue has done with advanced micro. the stock is up. >> jpmorgan ups, bj's wholesale to focus list. pockets of anticipated strength. >> absolutely. let answ's not give up hope. >> the virus volatility continues to weigh on the street the president said last night he hopes it won't have a long-term economic impact but said they have "plans for every single possibility" who better to talk about that and the jobs number than the national economic council director larry kudlow, who joins us from washington larry, good morning. good to see you. >> thank you, carl appreciate it very much. >> let's start with the jobs number it's a good one as we know, 273. we've been talking to the desk this morning about how relevant it is, given what we appear to be heading into.
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what do you think? >> well, i think it's very relevant look, this is a gigantic number and 273, by the way, plus 85,000 jobs in the prior two months in an upward revision, so the total is 358,000, and that's a gigantic number. so my point here is that we have argued, i believe the economy is fundamentally sound, even getting stronger through the winter months, excluding the virus problem, talk about it in a moment, but we're coming in with a strong economic growth base across the board. jobs in employment and wages and even some improvement in manufacturing, tremendous improvement in housing let's not forget low interest rates will be a positive going forward. all's i'm saying is, carl, we know the future growth is going to slow down, certainly in
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certain sectors. we get that, but coming in with a strong base like this, gives i think, should give us much more confidence about what the future holds in relation to the human tragedy side, which of course is the coronavirus. i've argued and i will continue to argue economic problems are going to be temporary and short-lived. virus is not going to last forever. human side, a lot of difficulties there i get that, i understand that, but still we have a strong economic base and to be honest with you, pro growth supply side policies of president trump are working. >> well, let me ask you, first of all, larry, thank you so much for coming on again. always being faithful. there was a piece by jason fuhrman. you know him and i know him and he's a smart fellow saying congress should send you $1,000 and $500 for each child, $350
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billion panic or intelligent >> well look, jason is a long time friend and a very smart fella. i don't agree with his point of view i don't think we should just be throwing money and throwing cash in these short term rebates kind of models that have never really worked in the past, and by the way, we don't even know -- let me come back to this can we possibly do this, jimmy, fact by fact, day by day because we don't know what the magnitude of the economy might be in terms of a slowdown. we don't actually know what the magnitude of the virus is going to be, although frankly, so far it looks relatively contained, and we don't think most people -- i mean the vast majority of americans are not at risk for this virus, but in terms of what my friend, jason fuhrman said, look, nec and
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treasury, steve mnuchin and i and staff have been talking about this, and we would prefer a targeted approach, a rather micro approach, if you understand let's think about individuals who might lose paychecks because they have to stay home, if they get the virus, let's think about small businesses, might get hurt by this. perhaps we would look at some sectors. i know you all talked about airlines we met with the airline executives a couple days ago in the oval we would like to be targeted and timely, jimmy, not the gigantic macro economic fix i think that's the issue, and we really have to wait for more information, almost on a day-by-day basis, before we can take action. one quick fast point, jim. i don't mean to filibuster here, but john taylor was on from stanford university earlier on your network, and he made a very good point let's not forget, we have
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automatic stabilizers in the budget, okay if the unemployment rate should go up, and right now, it's still 3.5%, 50 or low, but if it duds does go up, unemployment insurance, food stamps, welfare related programs are automatic you don't have to go for additional appropriation, so i just don't want to panic on the economy, which looks sound i don't want to panic on the virus, which, frankly, most americans are not at risk and i don't want to panic on policy measures let's try to be calm and not overreact. >> and larry, it's david i certainly understand that, but you know, it depends who you talk to as you point out of course, it's very difficult to know everything at this point. there are so many open-ended questions but when i speak to people who are reviewing the primary data and material that's available from china, where of course the outbreak has been by far the worst they're not
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sanguine on the u.s. response at this point they tell me if we wanted to contain the virus, we would need to do what china has done. we seem unwilling to do that for any number of reasons, including the impact it would have on our economy. does the administration take that into account? are there things you're unwilling to do that perhaps should be done to contain the virus? many people say larry it's hard to say whether it is in any way contained or whether we are not all at risk. >> i'm not sure where you're going on that. immediately in january, president trump automatically put on travel bans with respect to china, and then we instituted quarantine quarantines for americans coming back from china and foreign
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nationals. we have screening procedures we know there's problems in northern italy and south korea and we know this is spreading in europe we get that, so that's why we're setting up screening procedures. we have a travel advisory for a lot of these places. so look, we took -- the president jumped out fast and took very bold steps as i said in some cases overriding the advice of some of his advisers my reading if you disagree, david, i respect that the numbers coming out of china appear to be easing, quite substantially easing >> yes >> the ratio of people who are catching the virus and the volume has come way down in fact, everything's come way down there is also reports from china and again, the numbers out of china, we always have to question that, i understand, lord knows, but i'm just saying, it looks like people are returning to work. it looks like factories are starting to reopen we've had people like tim cook
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and starbucks and others say that i don't want to bet the ranch on it all i'm saying is the numbers we have look to be improving in chi china. most of the problem now the accelerations are outside of china and we're keeping a close watch on that. we have some issues here with respect to the cruise ship and the nursing home and all that. we're doing everything we can do we got the test kits out in huge size millions of people will be tested folks should not run around grabbing these masks because that should be for the professional health care people. the masks themselves don't work for individuals and here is the other thing. i talked to tony fauci, extremely capable guy. if you get it, if you get it, 80% come out of it with no problem. pre-existing conditions, yeah,
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very cautious. elderly people we had problems with some senior assistance homes. those things you have to exercise common sense, stay away as much as you can for most people, if you're healthy, you should go to work go about your business that's our advice. even regarding transportation which may be hit, the airlines, they are calm about it but in trouble in some of their numbers. look, domestic flights for the most part is in good shape if you stay away from the travel warning countries, international flight likewise. i don't want to downplay anything, worry about the effect on human beings for heaven's sake but i'm just saying, let's not overreact. >> i hear that, larry but a lot of the -- >> we should stay at work. stay at work >> health professionals i speak,
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to scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner would say different things in particular about seattle and about the government response that needs to actually take place and how we need to be a lot more formidable in our response, and statements like the ones you just made are actually encouraging people to do things that they shouldn't and will actually cause the spread of the virus as opposed to it stopping >> i don't -- look, scott gottlieb is a brilliant guy and a friend of mine with respect to seattle, all right, that would be a place you would avoid for now, and gavin newsom, governor newsom declaring california emergency state, especially northern california, i understand that. avoid it exercise common sense. but the rest of the country is not suffering from those kinds of breakouts, at least not yet i don't want to suggest it might not occur in the future. we're just trying to do this a day at a time, a fact at a time,
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if you will, and really, the overriding numbers most americans are not at risk, and as i say, 80% of americans, if you get the infection, are going to come out just fine. some people have it and don't even know it because they get through it in a week or two and i guess one last point, we had the biotech and pharma companies in with the president and the cabinet room a couple days ago they're talking about therapies, medicine, coming out this spring or early summer, so these are all positive developments. i don't want to reduce the importance of this story but i'm just saying with common sense backed up by some of the statistics, i would say if you're healthy, if you're on the younger side, particularly, you should go about your business, and not be afraid. so others may disagree and i understand that and i'm
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respectful of their views but that's the way i see it. >> larry, i know that i feel personally schools should close. my school district just closed, i get that i want to ask you something. you and i were partners we used to try to think as big as possible i want to ask you, wouldn't you right now agree with me that if you could have a manhattan project for this, give $1 billion to the brilliant people in our country and say solve this, that's better than the to to totalitarian way the chinese are sochlg the solving their problems >> yes, jim. absolutely i'm going to take some water, my mouth is dry we're going long and i love to go long with you but i need a little water >> larry, we have ingenious people but are they getting together and doing the things -- they're talking. how about we put them in a place and solve this, larry? >> you're spot-on, jimmy, both the thought, the action, and the
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spirit we have the pharma and biotech companies in, wednesday or tuesday, i don't recall. it's been a long week. but they talked among themselves, they're coordinating and cooperating among themselves, some remarkable developments are happening, from the private sector, you're right, not the government, it's the private sector therapies will be available late this spring/summer, medicine, in other words. that's terrific. they're beginning the experimental stages of the vaccine testing, that's going to take longer, perhaps a year, year and a half, but to your point, this is being done not by state edict, as in china, not by closing down every city in the country, which china did at least temporarily, maybe they had to, i don't know, i don't want to go there but it's being done by the american private sector, with our technology, which is the best in the world, and again, the president laid
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down immediately travel restrictions, travel bans and quarantines to deal with the worst part of this thing, and try to keep it as contained as best as possible i just think the private sector is going to solve this disease as they have, jimmy, in the past, as you well that is what americans do. this is true not just for this coronavirus. this is true for all manners of technology breakthroughs, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, 5g infrastructures and the like we are the world's leading technology we are a free country that believes in free enterprise. president trump in the davos, called it the american model of enterprise you can boil it down to tax cuts and deregulation sure. terrific stuff better trade deals there is an export boom coming once the virus dies down later in the year. but most of all we believe success and entrepreneurship should be rewarded
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not penalized. that's what drives these incentives for these red companies. >> larry, it won't surprise you to know there's been some frustration with comments you've made largely on our air. one that the virus was almost air tight in terms of containment. the other was that americans you said should consider buying the dip in stocks. that was 9% ago. are you going to refrain from making comments like that in the future >> i don't know. are you asking me a question on that >> i guess i'll say it again should americans buy it now? >> yes i don't do timing but i will say this because of my belief that the american economy is sound -- it is my view, i am an optimist i think when you have these corrections in the market, i
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don't know what we're down, the latest quote is it got down to 13% correction from the peak i'm not sure where it is exactly now. yes, i would say as i will repeat my view, carl, long term investors should think seriously about buying these dips. that is my view. i will repeat that if i'm not mistaken, on your network pretty distinguished investor named warren buffet said the same thing. i think other cool heads are saying that. i want to be calm about this i'll repeat that it's not a timing call i'm not a tactical guy jimmy cramer is, you know, the best, the stock encyclopedia >> thank you >> i would say long run investors, absolutely. and, carl, regarding the containment issue i will still argue to you that this is contained. it can't be air tight but we are, you know, you look at the numbers here and i know there are things in front of us, you
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know, by itself more testing is going to uncover more cases. >> yes. >> but in a relative sense relative to our population, relative to ordinary flus, i don't want to downgrade this thing. this can be human tragedy for individuals who suffer or lord knows who die, said that from day one. i think it is relatively contained. yes i do i'll stay with that view >> larry, it's much more serious than the flu as you know and it is a virus spread all over the globe in the space of about three months it is certainly something that seems to avoid containment to some extent. my question, though, is about the economy. >> to some extent. again, i want to stay with this. what the president said, what the vice president said, what our top experts say from cdc and elsewhere, really, these are the career health guys who are very good at this all right?
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national infection risk is low average americans go about their business because the infection risk is low. there are exceptions >> right >> guidelines. as i say, elderly people, yes. you know, nursing homes, assisted living homes. i understand that. you have to exercise common sense. washing your hands 15 times a day, you know, using kleenex when you cough and sneeze. just common sense stuff. but they've been covered -- >> of course >> 80% of the people who get this infection come out just fine, so i -- i don't know what adjective you want to use but i still think it's -- we have this pretty well in hand. >> finally, larry, economic activity certainly has slowed. do you think the likelihood of a recession has increased dramatically >> david, where has it slowed? >> well, i can judge from the way that corporations are not sending people to go to
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meetings, conferences are being canceled all over the place, that people are not going to school, not potentially going out as much as they might. >> corporate travel restrictions >> corporate travel restrictions things of that nature will have and take a toll over time. >> all right i accept that. i accept all of those points but look you just had a remarkable jobs number with revisions about 350,000. unemployment is 3.5% you're actually seeing pick-ups in wages from this report. manufacturing, construction, housing has been in a boom low interest rates by the way will help a good deal over time. i don't deny what you said and i know events are being canceled and i wish they wouldn't be because i think there may be over reaction in certain cases as i said, i still think healthy people should go about their
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business so i don't want to say the future to use donald rumsfeld's phrase, we have known unknowns that is the future, the contagion future and matters related to that. i think economic growth in the next quarter will slow as a result of this i acknowledge we have seen some modest disturbances in supply chain deliveries i acknowledge that though in general isms look okay i think we are in a very healthy economic position. we are going to see a slowdown you are right about airline travel and conferences and related matters, but i don't think this is recessionary and i don't think this is going to be catastrophic i think, you know, strong economies recover. and look, unlike the financial
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crisis and related matters, this one is not forever this is going to run out of steam. this is not going to go on forever. especially important we get these remedies and therapies coming up. that's the report from the biotech guys so, yes. economic slowdown, yes we expect that more cases of contagion? yes. we expect that but i think people should not over react >> larry, we appreciate your time as always especially on days like today. we'll talk to you soon, larry kudlow, national economic council director >> thanks, carl. >> there is a reason why he is on the cover of "business week" with the title "the optimist" jim. >> he is and always has been and there is room for optimism room for it. i think a lot of questions david raised are front and center with why the interest rates are where they are and what we hear on the ground which is that there are too many things being canceled for us to be able to be not
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sanguine but not to be concerned. i don't want to use the term worried because no one was ever able to create anything positive out of worry we do have things, we want to try everything at hand we want longer term. a three part thing i've been calling for more money to be sent to public health, sent to try to solve this, more than necessarily economic but i understand it doesn't have to be one or the other >> big anniversary show tonight. >> you know what i think it is about the viewers as always. i'd like to celebrate but we can do that some other time. we got things to do. >> congratulations >> thank you >> we're so proud of you "mad money" celebrating 15 years. splunk and ellevest tonight. let's get to bob pisani. s&p down 100 handles see what's moving on the floor, bob. >> new lows. we close right here for the year, just want to show you the sectors. the usual banks, energies, semis
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down notably even the home sector down a little gold moving to the upside. we have the usual coronavirus stocks on the weak side so the airlines are weak. the hotels areweak we noted live nation yesterday new 52-week low. even starbucks down. home depot even down today that's been hit. interesting. we have big laggards for the week oil, gas, department stores, hotels and airlines all on the weak side. but there have been some gainers. we've been noting this costco, clorox, kimberly-clark, walmart, church and dwight, household products all on the upside mr. kudlow ever the optimism people on the street are -- there are people on the street still optimistic they talk about big fiscal stimulus coming. that might make a difference and of course china going back to work and the china stock market doing really well also a big help the china s&p 500, two-year high yesterday. that was very widely passed around on a lot of the trading desks. that certainly is important here we're waiting to see if that is going to happen. unfortunately, while china markets are a two-year high not
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so here. we were looking to see we were going to hold those lows at the end of february that we had. that is not going to be happening. the s&p 500, csi, two-year highs here took a look at the s&p 500 we've broken below the lows there. 2932 right now 2954 was the old close there we're below that right now we'll see if we can hold that going into the close guys, back to you. >> thank you very much for that. good friday morning, everybody welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen and david faber at post 9 of the new york stock exchange obviously a sell-off in place once again after yesterday's sell-off down almost 2.7% vix up 49. you got the ten year which did hit 66 basis points and now economic data crossing the tape. wholesale inventories with rick santelli rick >> yes our january final read on inventories is down 0.4 so down 0.2 turns into down 0.4 and becomes the worst level on a month over month drop in wholesale inventories since september of last year
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on the other hand as you look at the sales side, very robust number the previous month, up 0.5% to minus 0.2. i want to put this out there we were briefly trading 41 basis noints a two-year note yield and the fed did have a cut of 50 basis points which is exactly how much at 41 basis points the two year note yield was down for the week sara, back to you. >> thanks. let's get to steve liesman for more on today's data live from the shadow open market committee meeting in new york where there are a lot of fed speakers for today. >> we're listening for any comments none just yet. we'll bring them when they happen this morning's strong jobs report is good news.
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the virus effects are not yet showing up in the economic data but economists say it is not a question of if but where and when it appears. oxford economics writing in a report saying, quote, over 40% of consumer spending is linked to social situations and at risk for people avoiding crowds some of the spending may be permanently lost others joined in calling for a large government stimulus plan to offset potential losses goldman sachs this week introducing a coronavirus activity tracker which is going to follow movie ticket sales, o hotel occupancy rates, and sporting attendance. it declined a bit at the end of february but remains at a high level. also reasonably good news, it is also tracking prices for hotels, air fares, and theater tickets hasn't shown much yet but there has been a decline in ticket prices expected to decline with falling demand even this week, week-old data may be too old after a slew of increased infections across the nation and canceled conferences as well.
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a few places to look for the virus effect in future jobs report self-employed unfortunately could be the first to be let go or not get employment as employers right sized their businesses transportation, leisure, hospitality, even education where they could have some problems with foreign students most economists continue to forecast the fairly modest half point hit to u.s. gdp this year and argue about how much comes back next year from both a supply shock from china and likely temporary business and consumer spending declines in the u.s. but it is hard to look at the behavior of stocks and think investors are fearing a much steeper drop than just a half point in gdp >> you know, steve, specifically on the business spending outlook and employment outlook we've seen businesses act pretty conservatively right now to tell employees to stay at home or cancel meetings or do testsfor at home. >> yes, right. >> does that necessarily translate into a big drop in
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capx in business spending later in the year, in hiring plans how have we seen those trends in the past in terms of what it takes for businesses to just freeze up? >> well, what happens is you see a shock coming along and businesses try not to make drastic decisions. they try not to say, you know what we'll fire a whole bunch of people but not hiring somebody is an easier decision to make. so reducing the addition of employees would probably be the first, not doing business with an outside contractor would be an initial decision that could be made, a sort of painless one at least for the employer though very hurtful for the contractor or the employee but it doesn't affect the full-time employment of those onboard particularly by the way sarah i think they'll be animated by the idea it has been a very tight job market, hard to get people they'll be reluctant to let people go and see if they will ride it through with the existing, at the edges, again, you wouldn't necessarily cancel
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an investment project. you might delay it several months that gets to the debate that i think the market is having, the economists are having, which is what is the bounceback looking like if you have a couple months of dead issue anss that does -- debt issue that doesn't happen, does it happen in the second or third quarter or wait until next year what is the magnitude of that? i think it is relative to the downturn we have >> right steve, to the friction costs you're referring to regarding hiring and firing, i think small business owners, anybody who works for a living understands that what are easier cuts today we got needham cutting numbers on facebook because they say advertising is an easy cut my second question would be when would we see an impact on claims after 216 this week? >> i was surprised it didn't show up last week but i would suspect in the coming weeks. last week was the week ending february 29th. i think we'll date the first impacts to that week and the
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first week of march when it got serious when personally i got a call that a conference i was going to go to on monday was canceled and others did as well. i think it's just starting to happen here and i think that's when you're going to begin to see the first data and it really won't be until april that's why, carl, people like goldman sachs are starting these consumer -- they're trying to get as much real time information as they possibly can. >> aggregates, all different kinds of spending patterns interesting report this week steve thanks >> a pleasure. >> steve liesman we are getting news on oil as everyone is watching the opec meeting. brian sullivan is on the cnbc newsline >> hey, carl thanks very much just people over in vienna and austria and everybody is in agreement russia and saudi arabia are really having a tough time coming to some kind of a deal remember yesterday opec did something very unusual
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they sort of preannounced a proposal/deal to cut 1.5 million barrels a day additional from their current output cut the problem is, carl, that russia had not signed off on that deal. remember, russia is not a member of opec but they are kind of a defacto team member. they get together and huddle up and say yes we blessed the deal. opec did the deal without consulting russia. people i'm talking to on both sides there and here say that is a big problem. russia is not happy. specifically one vladimir putin as well. if they do not come to some kind of a deal as we said yesterday on the air, we could see oil in the day in the high 30s. you look at the price of oil down 5.5% to 6%, guys. and i didn't think it works for many of the oil stocks but look today. occidental, continental resources down 7, 8, 9, 10% today. anything with debt is getting bludgeoned today >> viewers understand why russia
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appears to have a higher tolerance for lower prices what is it about them and the saudis that's different? >> the saudis can produce, carl, it is a great question, about three bucks a barrel they're profitable at about $3 a barrel because they've been doing this forever and the way that they operate. russia has a much higher cost. so russia needs higher prices. the problem is russia wants both things they want higher prices but they also want to be able to keep their output steady. in other words, you want higher prices you make the cut we're going to keep doing what we're doing. the problem is russia is really the second or third largest global producer. probably the second now that saudi has pulled back a bit behind the united states what they do matters a lot they want their cake and they want to eat it, too. and i think with the new saudi energy minister, one of the sons of the king, remember, i think he's taken a hard line here and wants to say, you know what, russia you get in line. we're all going to take a piece of this hit.
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>> nobody is getting higher prices right now both wti and brent crude are down more than 7%. brent of course the international benchmark at $46 a barrel brian, thank you >> thank you the national economic council director larry kudlow joining "squawk on the street" moments ago. here is what he had to say regarding the coronavirus impact on the economy >> economic problems are going to be temporary and short lived. the virus is not going to last forever. the human side, a lot of difficulties there i get that i understand that. but, still we have a strong economic base and, to be honest with you, our pro growth supply side policies and president trump are working. >> joining us now is chief investment strategist jim thornton and chief economist diane swonk. the rhetoric from the administration doesn't appear to be matching up with the market's message. is that problematic, jim >> well, you know, the administration could be wrong
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like any of us, sara i think none of us reamey know what's going to happen i'm not sure it is problematic they have a different view i think they're still being as aggressive as they can be with policy support i'm not sure what else they'd really do. so i'm not that worried about that opinion but, you know, we're going to find out here because to steve's point we're entering the period now where the data has got to show and there's certainly a lot of fear about what it'll show and it's going to weaken but the thing you got to look at as an investor does it weaken more than our worst fears you know, that's the debate here now. you know, i do think you look at the how strong the labor market is, how tight the labor market is, how much our company is going to want to layoff people if this is more of a temporary event, a situation where maybe claim numbers may go up not that much and that could be good news
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that would defray even if the economy weakens, if it is not as disastrous as people feel, i think there is still some hope that we could get through this none of us know. i think it is encouraging that china sort of seems to be running its course after a couple months and its stock market is responding to that and maybe that's a pattern that we can all look forward to here in the united states after a period of time. >> i'm not sure we can compare it to the united states though because what they did, quarantining millions and millions of people to stop the spread is just not do-able here in this country, jim you really think investors are paying attention to that trajectory >> i think that they had no warning when this started, sara, at all, and it erupted before anyone even knew what it was we've had warning. i also wonder, i don't know if people brought this up what would this crisis look like 30 years ago when we didn't have
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the technology we have you know, we have a more service based economy rather than manufacturing and most people can work from home if they're staying home they can continue to produce their job as well as if they're at place. not only that, but if people are staying home, doesn't mean they can't buy stuff. they could be on amazon prime and have those delivery trucks coming regularly so this idea that just because people maybe stay home more means we'll have a dramatic drop-off in overall demand i'm not sure that's accurate, either i'm sure we're going to get some no doubt about it. but again, i come back to, is it as bad as feared that's what we have to come down to i think technology allows us to video conference even if we're not there. it allows us to continue to do our job even if we're not there. it allows us to continue to buy even if we're in our house >> jim, everything you are saying points to a drop in the services you use when you
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travel right? i mean, i can understand -- go ahead. >> i was going to say, carl, i totally agree with that. we're obviously going to have a reduction in economic growth we're obviously going to have, you know, it is evident. you can see in the travelers as you say and there is no doubt about it but my point is we also -- the market that's putting bond yields at 65 basis points and the stock market down 15% is weighing that against what they fear and it isn't an issue whether we'll slow down. we are it's an issue of whether the slowdown is as bad as the market fears. that's debatable >> so we definitely want to hear from you, diane, on this question, which is the question of the day the labor market was booming in february does that help cushion any blow that we get from coronavirus does it reduce the odds, say, of recession? >> it does help cushion the blow that's really important. a lot of that momentum came in
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leisure and hospitality which was ramping up in the first two months of the year the problem is i was at the same conference that steve got canceled i was going to be on the panel with steve he was going to be interviewing me that is over and what i've seen several conferences here in chicago canceled in the last few days and was in a hotel where they told the workers they would no longer have the jobs they thought they had for them. so it's already starting to hit. the major conference centers we are one of them here in chicago. the lay offensive are real for hourly workers who do not have sick days to also if they're out sick to be able to have that cushion. what we really want to do, the good news is we had this momentum going into it we want to bridge this troubled waters of the coronavirus with some fiscal stimulus that helps us to not allow the losses we see mutate into a financial crisis for companies that all of a sudden are short of cash flow, can't get access they once did to credit markets and for small, middle sized businesses and
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consumers. i think that is what we need to see so we come out of this on the other side less scathed and able to heal after the coronavirus hits we have a much more service based economy than china does. there is a great piece on this i think we're much more vulnerable in that way also plants, all you need is one person in a plant to show positive for coronavirus and you shut a plant down. one of the things we're looking at with many of our clients is, in fact, what is their key people they need to have backup for during the crisis to sustain business but on the flip side of it how do we deal with bridging this crisis, making sure your suppliers are solvent, and dealing with supply disruptions even in the united states as well as abroad >> do you look toward china and south korea and italy and other countries that have been more advanced where this has happened first as any sort of template for what could happen to this economy, diane >> well, the problem is they keep adding on so it is, what is not a health
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pandemic yet classified is what i call an economic pandemic and the global effect of all these things happening simultaneously is compounding the impact and the fallout for the united states, which is later to the game but as you mentioned, we cannot do the kinds of extremes china did to contain the virus and that creates its own subset of problems. what we'd like to do is keep the well-being of people there is a fine line between prudence and panic and kms are trying to be prudent -- companies are trying to be prudent by not allowing employees to be exposed to the virus. also, the state law is if they make someone show up for work where someone ends up being sick they are liable in many ways for workman's comp so there are financial incentives for companies to pull back in the midst of this. i think that is very important yes we can work at home but if we're not working at home we know the online economy just cann cannot begin to compensate for what we lose by not going out to a movie theater or sporting
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event. those kinds of losses don't get recouped and so we need to be in a really good spot at the other side of this to be able to take off again with stimulus. >> jim and diane, thank you both for joining us on this jobs day. >> thanks. >> the dow down 670 points don't miss a cnbc special report tonight markets in turmoil 7:00 p.m. eastern time. >> we are getting a bounce in travel related names dom chu has more on that >> absolutely. some of the negativy around the past few days one place you are seeing incrementally less pessimism, maybe not optimism, but in the cruise line operators. norwegian cruise lines, carnival, royal caribbean all getting a bit of a bounce today as people maybe perhaps covered their short term short interest positions or take some fundamental dips into going long and buying some of those also on the airline side of things southwest a bit of a stand out. it's down but still out performing the rest of the market united airlines, alaska air, american airlines, delta, the majors all bouncing. david, if you are looking for a
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little bit of a silver lining today in a sea of red check out the green in travel and leisure. back over to you >> been a while since we've seen those stocks in the green. thank you. as interest rates tumble the number of home owners who can save money by refinancing is certainly growing. diana olick is crunching the numbers. >> reporter: it's a huge jump in just a few weeks the average rate on the 30-year fixed fell to a record low of 3.29% on freddie mac's weekly average this week. so there are now almost 13 million borrowers who could save money by refinancing loans that is save at least 75 basis points on their current rate all according to black knight and that is a record refinanceable population up by 1.7 million people in just the last week and 60% jump year to date. how much can they save the average borrower, $277 a month on a 30-year fixed loan. if all the borrowes did that it would be a collective
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$3.5 billion in payments quite an economic stimulus if rates fell just four basis points from here another 1.7 million borrowers would fall into that pool of potential savings. the phones are of course ringing off the hook at lenders like quicken which had record volume days this week while most borrowers are doing straight finances to lower rates, some doing cash out re-phis, home owners have a record tapable equity in their home above the 20% threshold. $6.2 trillion worth collectively at the end of last year. back to you guys >> so, diana, i get the refi activity obviously a no brainer what about for buying new homes? do the record low mortgage rates actually spur home buying? are people going to want to go out and look for homes what has the past told us about consumer behavior and whether that shuts down as well? >> well, that is the big question we saw mortgage applications to refinance soar last week
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we did not see mortgage applications to purchase a home loan go up they went down 3% for the week you have buyers out there, a lot of demand. they are weighing now their fears about the economy. and the virus against that low mortgage rate. yes it is going to give them purchasing power but in the housing market right now the biggest problem is a lack of homes for sale and higher prices. it is really that buyers are up against. in the past when we have trouble in the economy buyers pull back. that is because this is likely their single largest investment and they might not want to jump in if concerned about the future of their job >> diana, thank you. let's get our etf spotlight. mike santoli is taking a look at the drop in energy during the market volatility and i think incorporating some utilities, too. >> essentially everything in the market right now is a yield story. it's a rate story. it is what yields are saying at these levels about global growth and commodities and things like that take a look at utilities versus energy because it shows you the divergent effects this is having energy, clearly dealing with
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over supply, opec seems behind and all the rest of it until you have the conditions under which yields would start to rise again, you're not going to have value stocks work. you're not going to global cyclicals, even the consumer stocks to a degree so i do think commodity stocks is where you're seeing that. utilities, the world is hunting right now for a stable yield they've looked expensive for a long time. kind of doesn't matter right now. to me the market is being separated into yield victims and yield beneficiaries and unclear how long it is going to last every chart you want to look at of bond prices looks like they've gone completely parabolic and it is a momentum move and nothing more and maybe getting to a crescendo but it looked that way for a while now. >> i wanted to bring up the credit market. it is related to the energy story. >> completely. >> what are you seeing and how big a warning sign is it flashing >> it is a building warning sign but it's not necessarily at an acute level just yet it is really interesting because it reminds me of the fourth quarter of 2018 in some ways
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where really it was a stock market led move. and then credit appetite started to wane and you started to see stress in the system >> what does that mean, that it is not recessionary? do credit markets always lead to recession or was that just during the financial crisis? >> they tended to get worse before a recession i do think right now it is starting to build. the stress is starting to build. the spreads look like they're precarious but most of it is because treasury yields are rushing lower by so much it is not necessarily a buyer's rebellion of riskier corporate debt but energy is a big, big chunk of the high yield pool a smaller chunk of the stock market than it used to be. so i do think this is where we're looking right now. because suddenly interrupted cash flows for companies is what knocks the credit markets for a loop and so i see it all part of a similar story which is, you know, the vix at 40. treasury yields at two-thirds of
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1% at and widening out all telling you stress is building it is interesting that it mostly was led this time by the sharp drop in the stock market >> right as opposed to -- i mean, the bond market and the credit markets overall were showing signs of strain, the bear stearns hedge funds. >> it was over a year. >> we hit new highs. >> yeah. >> and later in -- >> october of 2007 >> right in october >> but some would say the difference there is that was the source of the problem. >> it was the source there was no doubt it was the source of the problem. >> in other words the difference now is it is more of a coincidence, indicator because that is not the stress point >> i am just reaffirming what he is saying, not disagreeing with him. there is no need to correct me >> i'm not correcting you. >> it is hard to tease out the leads and lags it is all seeming to kind of come together into one trend but it's not as if we have solvency issues in the financial system that's the difference between
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now and 2008 it's like the banks themselves are fine >> they're fine. >> they're going to cover their dividends. it is not even a question. it is much more about a nonfinancial company side. by the way, where there is record levels of debt but easy to service because you could just roll it over, you know, year after year. >> right on a rate basis it should be easier to roll over but the rating agencies now have to take into account the lenders' willingness to roll and forgive. >> right and it is still the same question that the stock market is dealing with, which is, is this a brief interruption and a pause or a long-term impairment of profits and cash flows? you know, when there is such a wide spectrum of probabilities of, you know, not so bad and really bad, that's why you get the market going up to now 3% every day. it's -- the market is -- stock market is hunting for people with conviction about where we're going. it has to go further to find those people who are going to buy or sell at a given level
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because there is such a wide range of possible outcomes >> yes mike, thank you. we were looking at bank stocks briefly there. they are continuing that slide despite the emergency rate cut we got earlier in the week we have the ceo of kew and let's start off with the bond market we've been talking about it a bit. did you ever think you'd see a move in the ten year like the last four days tom doesn't appear to be hearing us he's got an ear pod in >> it is a good question, david. the financials in particular have been slammed. >> tom, did i hear thru? >> you do. i'm sorry. yes. i didn't realize that question was for me but this is quite dramatic in terms of what we've seen happen in the fixed income market and that certainly is what i think is driving the bank stocks at the moment >> what are your expectations
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then in terms of the banking industry, which we just have been discussing here is nothing like it was 12 years ago but, nonetheless, just this move over all, what are the implications >> so here's what it is. we haven't changed any estimates for the current environment because we wouldn't know what to change them to what we've done is we've picked two scenarios that we've modeled out. the first scenario is where we see three rate cuts of which we've already gotten two so we've gotten 50 of the 75 basis points and a one-year -- one year 10% treasury. we've already traded through that the second scenario was five rate increases where you get basically the fed funds rate down zero to 25 basis points and a 50 basis point ten year. if that condition persists into next year, we have modeled -- we would be by 27%. the stocks are down over 20% already this year. so the market is already taking a lot of that into account
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it's precisely about what can these banks earn if interest rates head toward zero and the yield carve is flat? >> you think there is, i don't know, increasing likelihood of recession being also priced into the bank stocks at this point? >> in that second scenario we have a recession scenario the second half of the year. i'll very much agree with what david said earlier which is that dodd/frank, the good news of dodd/frank is the industry has a tremendous amount of liquidity, tremendous amount of capital, and we're starting from a point where essentially nonperforming loans are zero in the industry right now. so this is not a banking crisis. and then i also think a lot, and this is more severe than what we saw last august, but last august when the last time the bank stocks rolled over like this, all of the talk was about negative rates and i know that the german bond has gone to a record level of negative rates that would be a highly
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problematic situation for the u.s. banking industry if that happened because the industry was not built for negative rates. so i think investors want to know how far this is going to go >> yeah, what do you think we're a lot close tower negatr rates than we've ever been is it a real possibility we might get there? >> my opinion is i read that employment report and i think back to where we were weeks ago before the virus showed up the u.s. economy actually looked like it was picking up steam i also read all these reports about prior times when this happened and the word temporary keeps coming up. i did listen carefully to your interview with larry the reality is my instinct is that there is certainly an addition to the personal cost. there will certainly be an economic cost of this virus. but the foundation of the u.s. economy is still really good the u.s. banking system is still the best in the world. i think changing the parameters
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around that would have big implications so if we can get back to a point that is reasonably similar to where we were eight weeks ago, i think we can get through this. >> yeah. we'll talk to you in a moment, tom, but goldman does say today negative interest rates appear to be off the table due to the unanimous opposition of participants do you buy that? >> well, i'm glad they're saying it because remember what negative interest rates are. the german central bank just came out with a study last september. 60% of the banks in germany charged depositors to leave money in the bank. over 20% of the banks charged consumers to leave money in the bank our nation has never done that before if that transition is going to happen, there are a lot of unintended consequences from that and like i said earlier, six, eight weeks ago, the underlying tenets of the economy would not
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have suggested that was necessary. so i think what's happened is we've got asituation with the virus that's going to continue to keep getting worse. a lot of planning around it. what has to happen is can't wait to get to the other side of this where maybe we can get some more stability. the underlying tones are pretty good but i am not a fan of negative interest rates because we don't even have to guess what it'll do we can look at europe and see what it's done >> yeah. well, as you're speaking we wach watched it well off the low at this time and the market overall rebounding a bit with the s&p down less than 2%. tom, thank you >> thank you good luck. meantime, personal protection equipment is in demand medicom is ramping up production at its locations across the globe manufacturing masks and gloves and gowns we'll go to one of their facilities today in augusta, georgia. hi, kate rogers. >> reporter: that's right. demand for personal protective
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equipment, gloves, gowns, surgical masks just like these are on the rise all across the globe and medicom is ramping up production in augusta, georgia in response. the company currently has a staff of 70. they are now in production from 6:00 a.m. am through midnight in response to the coronavirus. medicom also produces in china, france, taiwan where products there have been requisitioned by the local government for use in those countries. medicom's coo says production demands are more challenging than in the past given that so much of the global supply comes from china and the virus has really slowed export capacity. >> it's coming from north america. that is a good thing but we have a few components coming from china. they are not on an export ban because they are not finished products but the demand is so big that there is disruption in
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the supply chain there is a huge cost increase. >> now medicom is looking to add about 30 workers in the next few months, planning to also move to about 24-hour production it is going to be a tall order in this historically tight labor market employment here in georgia is at record highs but the need for the face masks is also really great the world health organization said demand has increased sixfold since the coronavirus first broke out. it's also important to note they do manufacture these surgical masks here they make the n95 respirators in france they obviously cannot leave the country. they are made according to eu guidelines they may look at making n95 respirators here in the future but that means bringing in new manufacturing equipment, getting employees up to speed. it will be a process but is one they may have to consider in the future as demand continues to increase back over to you >> kate rogers, thank you. time now for a cnbc news
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update sue herera back at headquarters. good morning, sue. >> good morning, everyone. here is what's happening at this hour in kabul, afghanistan gunmen have killed at least 29 people and wounded dozens more at a remembrance ceremony for a shiite leader. several prominent political leaders escaped unhurt including a top contender in last year's presidential election. the taliban deny any involvement. so far no one has claimed responsibility for the attack. tunisian government officials say two suicide bombers blew themselves up near the u.s. embassy in the capital city of tunis. five police officers and a civilian were injured. one is in critical condition japan has imposed a 14-day quarantine on all visitors from south korea and china in a move to halt the spread of the coronavirus. south korea has responded with quarantine requirements for travelers from japan israel has closed off entry points into the wafrj city of
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bethlehem -- west bank city of bethlehem. palestinians have declared a state of emergency which has closed all schools there you're up to date. that is the news update this hour carl, back downtown to you >> all right thank you very much. we are about an hour into the trading session. stocks sliding despite the jobs number today which did smash expectations for the month of february goldman reiterates its case for zero profit growth for s&p companies this year and also the case for negative rates appear to be off the table. goldman's chief economist joins us today at post 9 welcome. good to see you. >> good to be here >> let's tackle the jobs number first. how much of a cushion is it even though it is a february number >> i think it is a very unimportant jobs number. i don't think it is going to have any impact on how people think about it we also knew the economy was in decent shape going into this and it provides some further evidence but i don't think it tells you whether this is going
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to be a temporary setback or extend deeper. we don't know that based on what the jobs numbers are or any of the other numbers earlier. >> what does it do to expectations for march >> i think in terms of the march fomc meeting -- >> i meant the jobs number >> i think the jobs number is probably going to be significantly weaker in march. that is partly just because 273,000 is above the trend and partly because by march you might start to see some weakness in some of the areas that are hit by pullback by consumers high face to face interaction. leisure and hospitality is a good example that was up about 50,000 in this report and is quite a strong number i expect some weakness there >> do you buy the fact that it shows we are on such a strong footing that any slowdown we face as a result of coronavirus won't be as deep or severe as maybe, i don't know, some of the markets are worried about? >> i think it just doesn't give you a whole lot of information
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about the extent of the slowdown it is, you're right it is better than the alternative if we had found that somehow even in february there was already a very weak number, the narrative then would have been the economy was already softening and now it is being hit by this. i think the truth is that this is just a more stale report than you normally get so we should put a lot less weight on it than i normally would >> the case for negative rates appears to be off the table. what was the case and why is it off the table? >> well, that was a statement about the federal reserve's views as ex-pressed in congressional testimony and fomc minutes that there is no support for negative rates as the next step beyond a return to zero or near zero. the next step if they need to go to zero and they need to provide additional stimulus is going to be much more qe and 4 guidance than negative rates. is it impossiblethat at some point down the road they might reconsider this?
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no it is not impossible that could happen. but it is just not something that is going to be on the agenda any time soon it's pretty clear what the playbook is likely to be if they do need to provide more support than moving to near zero and that is mainly qe. >> we got the beige book this week and, you know, anecdotally, corona was in there. when would you expect it to present itself empirically and to what number most importantly? >> i would expect some weakness in, you know, areas like -- >> retail sales? >> areas of retail sales, maybe kind of sports and entertainment and, you know, restaurants, those are areas to look. we, you know, have looked at some of the very high frequency numbers both in the u.s. and elsewhere. so far we've seen a lot of weakness in asia especially in china. in the u.s. it's not really vicible vicible -- visible in the weekly numbers. those cover up from about a week
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ago. >> where do you think the market is forecasting as far as economic weakness? 13% or so off the record high? the ten year's sharp fall in terms of yields. what is that telling us about where expectations are >> i think on the economy there is an expectation of a contraction. not necessarily a recessionary one. but in the short term, you know, probably some contraction in global growth. we have a sequential contraction in global gdp in our numbers second quarter we don't have quite negative so that stops short of the conventional cry tearon for recession but it is not too far away as i said on a different one of your programs earlier in the week so i think that is fairly close to market expectations as far as i can tell and then on the monetary policy side, you can see it markets pricing something fairly close to zero for the funds rate by the end of 2020
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not quite there. but certainly moved a lot further in that direction. our own view is also there is likely to be more easing we have, you know, a couple more rate cuts and certainly they're going to be responsive to the information and could go further. >> if he were here i would ask him how is it you could have zero profit growth this year which is goldman's projection and yet a year end target of 3400 i don't know how you can address that why would that make sense? >> i think it depends whether the economy comes back in the later half of the year if this is more of a first half issue, second half sees recovery, then i think you're also going to have better market performance. if you go back to last year, last year we had zero profit growth and obviously a very strong equity market. so these things don't always, you know, totally correspond to one another. but i think a lot of it is just going to depend on how the economy does in the second half of the year rather than the
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annual average profit number that is probably less important. >> well, what are you watching most closely then? is it the typical things or are there other things that perhaps you are keeping an eye on more closely than you otherwise would given this unusual uncertain period we seem to be in? >> well, of course we've all turned into amateur epidemiologists and try to figure out what the case load is likely to look like both how many cases, how quickly cases are going to grow, what the testing regime is like, you look at different countries around the world, and some seem to be doing a much more aggressive testing program than others. in asia it's very aggressive in some places, korea is a good example. so we obviously look at these things and otherwise as far as the economic indicators are concerned, we're much more focused, on much shorter term indicators, daily and weekly, very noisy numbers, but much more informative than for
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example this employment report which at the moment is very stale. >> very quickly, you know with the magnitude of the moves in the market it has been extraordinary. are we at the point yet where the weakness in the market will itself spill over into the economy in terms of the wealth effect >> we certainly always think that financial conditions are important to watch our financial conditions index, you know, has tightened significantly over the last couple of weeks. so if that continues, then eventually that is going to mean a sort of, you know, multiplier effect and an added negative i would say that this period of weakness in financial conditions comes after a long period of strength 2019 was very strong the early part of 2018 was very strong so by our estimates we're not at this point getting a large negative impact from financial conditions based on where we are at the moment in markets but it is something to watch you know, things are changing quickly. it's not just in the equity
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market but obviously also in the credit markets where we've seen some stress in recent days in particular >> our thanks to you as always thank you. >> thank you >> watching the dow here we've cut our losses in half down now only 400 points there are the biggest lag erds energy exxon a down day to the tune of 6.3% dow, boeing, united technology, jpmorgan chase we have a number of positive movers right now walgreens and disney more "squawk on the street" when weomrit ck ce ghba ight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo.
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>> markets still reeling after the fed's emergency rate cut will other central banks follow suit get one top economist's take more "squawk on the street" coming up. there has never been a better time
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>> the world health organization just now holding a briefing where the director general said to the business community in helping fight the spread of the coronavirus, quote, we need you. he said the w.h.o. is working with the world economic forum and has spoken with more than 200 ceos about how to protect staff and customers. this as case counts worldwide have now topped 100,000. with more than 3,400 dead. outside china numbers are highest in south korea, iran, italy, and germany they're climbing in the u.s. as well to now more than 230 as the country expands its testing capacity particular hot spots in the seattle area and northern california larry kudlow the president's chief economic adviser saying an hour to you david on "squawk on the street" that people should exercise common sense and avoid those places for now sara >> meg, thank you. we're ending a turbulent trading week for the markets on monday and wednesday we saw the dow surge. on tuesday and thursday stocks were deep in the red with the dow dropping nearly 970 points
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yesterday. what does all this volatility mean for your 401(k) and other investments? we're joined by the "new york times" pulitzer prize winning columnist jim stewart author of "deep state, trump, the fbi, and the rule of law. you've been writing about the market for decades now >> i have. >> are people looking at their 401(k)s after another tumultuous week thinking this is starting to look scary? >> my first piece of advice is don't look at your 401(k). just ignore it but i realize the lure of looking there is hard to resist. my most important advice is when you look at it, if the dow, the s&p is plunging you should be thinking about only one thing. and that is, is this a time to buy? most people immediately think oh, my god i should have sold and maybe i could get in is it too late to sell no selling is not what you should be thinking about. buying the same thing with the big surges the impulse is to think i better get in there and be part
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of the rally no, no that is when you think about selling. now i wouldn't be selling this stuff because it isn't hitting new highs or anything like that. but in the big declines, yes it is time to think about buying and my disciplined approach is ignore the virus ignore the news. look only at the numbers when the market is down 10% it's time to buy. then you don't do anything again until it goes down 10% again simple, disciplined, by the number no emotion no getting caught up >> doesn't depend on how long you have until retirement? if you're toward the end of that working age, you've seen the financial crisis that was painful you don't want to ride something like that out again. not saying that's what this is >> i've said this many times every individual investor in the stock market should be long term if you're not long term, then you shouldn't be in there. if for some reason you haven't followed this advice over the yearson need to raise cash okay. maybe. in some of these rallies you should think about doing it but
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i hope there aren't many people like that. if you do not have ten years of life expectancy or don't expect to have the money in for ten years then you should not be in a high equity percentage that's kind of basic investing >> is it the calculus extending to those who are in bonds? if you're sitting on a huge appreciation in fixed income, is it time to sell? >> i don't trade bonds in any sort of sense. bonds are part of a rebalancing strategy and a fixed income and i think that's always okay you don't have to wait for a big, big move in the market to do that. you can fine tune that but if your strategy is 70/30 with then, you know, what you would be doing probably now is buying stocks and selling bonds. so the fact there has been a coincidental huge rally in the bond market is very beneficial you'll be selling bonds high and buying stocks low. >> low we think they are low? >> i'm not saying at a bottom.
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by the way, forget trying to hit the bottom and know where it is going to be. we have got to live with uncertainty, which is it is a very uncomfortable feeling that's part of life and of course we don't know if they're going to go even lower they very well might we just don't know that's why if they do go lower you lower, you want to rebalance. >> we are coming back, dow down 357. we were down almost 900 points earlier. these wild swings. on the fixed income question, you have the fed cutting an emergency 50 basis points. does that sort of make people go into riskier assets who should not be in risky assets just because of the yields? >> you know, the theory is, of course, that riskier assets will be priced more attractively. so that is a corollary but i think we have to keep in mind the fed has to do what is in the best interest of the
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economy from a monetary standpoint it's just now how is this affecting investors but will it stimulate the economy, provide capital at a time when, you know, banks will be pulling in the reins a little bit they're not listening to the hectoring from the white house they're not panicking. you know, they're -- i have confidence in them they're acting in a prudent manner however you want to look at it, it's good they have loosened monetary policy at a time like this >> we heard kudlow this morning. whether or not he was grateful they didn't cut amid all the badgering late last year even further and save some bullets for a time like this >> exactly i hope they have been absolutely ignoring this kind of political clamor going on and stuck to their basic economics. yes, fortunately, we have a little bit of a cushion. it is possible to cut. but it's not big
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i mean, there has been a lot of talk that monetary policy can only do so much in a crisis like this this is the other point i really want to stress for long-term investors. the virus is going to be curtailed at some point. i do not believe this is a pandemic of 1918 even that eventually went away the numbers are a lot better in china. there is, you know, good times over the horizon when this horrible virus has receded you're going to want to be in your regular investment positions when that happens. i don't know when it's going to happen i wouldn't try to predict it, but the near certainty that that better day is going to come. >> even if there's a sanders presidency >> now we're not talking about the virus. >> no. by the way, a week ago, i could have said that and we all would go, oh, yeah, it's a less likely occurrence now you could trail out in the fall
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and have followed up with some things in the if political arena. >> a lot of people were saying if it were a sanders or biden rally, and i'm sure there were some political calculations. right now this is a very virus-driven market. once it is contained, we're not there yet, but we will get there, that the political things will be front and center again >> jim stewart, we know you'll be us through that thank you. >> let's send it over to chicago and join rick santelli for "the santelli exchange. rick >> good morning, david we had some data today so we're going to do a 3d data, death, dour, on the day, we all know it's old data, yesterday's mashed potatoes. however, after saying that, there whether it was mr. paulson or other guests, i believe the footing we remember on before the coronavirus volatility hit was solid, more solid than we'd
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imagined i liked the numbers. it didn't depict we were running out. as for ten-year note yields, this chart starts in 2018. i'm just trying to get a handle. when you go guns hot, making new all-time extremes the never before on a historical chart, it really is a place we can look at this if you look at the last big move from 323 to 195, subtract them, you come up with a distance, that's 178 basis points. so, you know, we could look at it as waves but many times you look at these moves and you say the next electric will be 1.66 expansion. that may be true but you're way in negative territory. if we look at the more traditional ways, take the 62 or 38, you come up with 0.85 and 1.28 we've blown by both of them.
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however, right around 1.30, that was a huge, huge, huge level and it worked if you got short below that on the 85, we want to pay attention, especially if we come back to that the last is the dollar here's dollar impacts charts this one is from 2015 to shows this does disappear just like the bond chart there's also a nice extreme at 90 finally, if we just look at the year to date, how many times was i talking about watch 96, 39 first of the year, traded through it, you got some power we want to see how long that lasts. carl, back to you. >> rick, than you very much. jpmorgan ceo jamie diamond is recovering after emergency heart surgery yesterday. doctors repair kwhad's known as an acute aortic dissection in a memo to employees, the bank said the procedure was successful and diamond was alert and recovering well. he went to the hospital early while experiencing chest pains
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while getting ready for work the co-presidents daniel pinto and gordon smith will run the bank it's our understanding jamie is already on the phone, making calls. his ability to recover from all kinds of medical emergencies is pretty amazing >> well, he beat throat cancer a number of years ago. he was fine with that. the expectation is he'll be back and we won't even be talk about his success for a number of years to come, but these kinds of health concerns do raise that question, of course, about succession >> he's kind of become the de facto spokesman for the industry and in many ways for corporate america with his duties at the business roundtable. no question that kind of headline shakes investors beyond banks. jpmorgan is the worst performer in the dow >> sara, what's coming up on
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"the closing bell" what a week it has been. >> just crazy. >> guys will be wrapping it up for us later today >> this time friday, stocks rallied to the close, didn't finish higher but was well off the lows that was a positive session. we're all over the market in the final hour and cutting our losses with the s&p down 1.75% deutsche bank's chief investment will tell us why he no longer sees a v-shaped recovery for stocks we'll talk to the chief strategist as well >> stocks are positive for the week once again. quk le icould hold 2954. "sawaly"s back in a moment you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse.
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