Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  June 30, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

3:00 pm
>> and yet oil prices and energy prices going the other way so does one have to give it feels like they should both be going up or both be going down eamon, great to have you. >> great being here. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. stocks are falling as we head into the final moments of an ugly first half of the year the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell, " i'm jon fortt. well, we've been clawing out of a hole but now the major indices are heading back down. we'll see how far in this final hour the dow is off about 284 points. the s&p down a little shy of 1%. the nasdaq faring worst of all, down 1 sp.2%. let's take a look at the top performing dow stocks in the first half chevron and merck way out ahead.
3:01 pm
the biggest decliner in 2022, disney down 40%. nike, salesforce, home depot and boeing all down sharply as well. we've gaot a great lineup of experts to explain what they're watching as we head into the second half of the year, including mohammed el-erian, bob doll, katie stockton and barbara doran. let's get straight to the market as we wrap up this first half, 58 minutes and change left over. mike santoli is here to put this rough start to the year in context. >> the first half is dying the way it lived caught between these twin concerns of stubborn inflation that will keep the fed in a hostile mode towards financial assets and concerns about a stalling economy the result here is a pretty well defined downturn we peaked right at the start of
3:02 pm
the year especially since early april it's been that steep decline these bounces have been relatively fleeting, unconvincing the last one with the mid-june low, we were down just above 3600 for an intraday low you got about 9% above that quickly and it's given most of it if not all of it back right now. one thing i'm focused on is where we've gone back to, a year and a half of gains that have been more or less unwound. this area right here is somewhat interesting, though. early november of 2020 when we got the pfizer/biontech vaccine results, that's when the market shot higher. who knows if that's going to be sort of a touch point out there. the two-year treasury yield shows you what the market is now gearing for in the way of fed expectations it's declined from about almost
3:03 pm
3.5, down below 3% it's taken basically two quarter-point fed rate increases out. the market thinks the fed will try to push rates higher into the end of the year or the next few months if it can and then probably cutting next year presume be because the economy couldn't handle it. >> we keep saying worst first half of the year the drop happens right at the beginning of january happy new year not so happy also interesting losing a full year's worth of gains in half a year it's all very nice and neat. >> it's very tidy, i agree with you. it is a little bit of a fluke that we happened to peak january 3rd. also if you talk about going back 18 months, when we bottomed in late 2018, also early 2016, had severe corrections, you were basically going back two years in terms of the levels that you bottomed at so nothing too odd
3:04 pm
about that and unwinding the gains that way. >> heck of a new year's hangover we'll see if this market is reborn on the fourth of july, thanks for more on this market let's bring in mohamed el-erian. here's my biggest question about the overall economy as we head into the second half it looks like consumers are still spending but they have been spending down their savings. inflation remains stubbornly high the cost of borrowing certain t rise is there a risk where consumers could slam the brakes more quickly than historically? >> yes, absolutely there's the risk you left out three additional things the fed is hiking aggressively into a slowing economy the fiscal impetus is now negative
3:05 pm
and exports aren't doing too well so you have the bearish components all coming together and slowing the economy much faster than we'd like it. >> does the fed have any choice, though >> no, it doesn't. it got -- it was late and it fell into the worst trap, which is you have to play catch-up, but your window for hiking rates in an orderly fashion has closed so rather than helping the economy soft land, the fed now risks actually contributing to a hard landing, and that's of its own making because it is so late >> right so let's look at the delivering alpha stock survey we asked 500 money managers about how the fed has been doing. 55% said the fed is rightly getting more aggressive in fighting inflation you just said they don't really
3:06 pm
have any choice but it sure would have been nice if they had started fighting it earlier. what do you put as the odds that the fed is going to end up with a hard landing because of the corner they sort of painted themselves into? >> unfortunately, john, it's a very high probability. the fed is a good year late. so when you are so late, you're going to have no choice but to hike aggressively. let's not forget that it also has to re-establish its damaged credibility. so i'm afraid that it's a high probability, uncomfortably high and worrisome lehigh. >> that's different than what a lot of people have been saying that i've been hearing oh, well, a recession isn't the base case scenario and here's how a soft landing could happen. it seems like nobody is saying what you're saying but does that
3:07 pm
mean that the scenario you're laying out is not priced in as far as what you say is likely to happen in the second half. are a lot of people in denial? >> as mike said, we started to price it in. the first driver of the sell-off was all about interest rate risk the fed was behind, it was going to have to hike and the market was pushing the fed to hike and the market got carried away in terms of pricing in quite a few hikes. that was phase one of the sell-off in face two, recession fears started creeping in and that is what's driving the market right now. it is much less inflation fears. it is now the mix of a recession fear and also the realization that the probability of a fed policy era is very high. >> okay. so how, then, should investors think about the second half of this year and the sign posts they should look for to see whether that worst-case scenario is panning out
3:08 pm
in my mind i've been imagining when consumers get back from these vacations that they're determined to take because, darn it, we deserve it after covid, the credit card bills come in and then they go, wait a minute, we've got to tighten up. is that a potential moment and how does that show up data if at all >> it is a potential moment. we are already picking up declining saving rates and declining cash, readily available cash to pay bills. the latest survey by "the wall street journal" shows that's down to 50% of people who feel that they have readily available cash for big bills so we are picking that up. look, john, the hope is that somehow we will get something on the supply side that will help us i don't think we can rely on the demand side. we need some good news on the supply side. now, there is some good news today alone the commodity index is down 3% we just have to stop inflation
3:09 pm
broadening and destabilizing inflation expectations. >> and we need more wealthy consumers to keep spending, i imagine, because we know that the working class, the poor with all of these must-haves like gasoline getting more expensive have less to spend on durable goods, right >> yeah, and you touch on a really important point, which is why i've been so upset the fed hadn't moved earlier the outlook that we're looking at right now is going to be another great unequalizer. it's going to hit the low-income segments of our population particularly hard. they already have used up a lot of resilience. so there's also a really important social aspect to it, jon. >> yeah, important downside scenario that we're looking very seriously at investors and everybody else should consider. mohammed, thank you. >> thank you, jon. >> still ahead, we'll talk much more about the market action and
3:10 pm
second-half ideas when we welcome jeremy siegel and bob doll. and two companies whose stocks are lower than their launch price they discuss the volatility in their shares, next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.
3:11 pm
3:12 pm
3:13 pm
let's check out today's stealth mover, universal health services, which is one of the biggest losers in the s&p 500. the hospital management company
3:14 pm
slashing its full-year earnings guidance because of a significant decline in covid cases hurting patient volumes. well, that's a positive reach at least. now let's head out to colorado where sara eisen is at the aspen ideas festival. >> i just moderated a panel today with two prominent female founders, honest company's jessica alba and bumble's whitney herd both companies went public last year in much better market conditions they had big ipo day pops and look at the stock price since, it tumbled i asked how they thought about the stock pricing during this prolonged downturn we're seeing in the market. >> covid, it's -- every issue is -- everything is rising to the top and it feels like there's a reckoning in every area and it's hard. >> yeah. i don't know what you've been
3:15 pm
doing but what i've been trying to do is i just really remember that that's not the right number to watch, right? that's not the right metric to pay attention to how is the health of your business how is the health of your team are they okay? are they hanging in there? are they feeling inexpired and motivated? how can we focus on just continuing to drive impact, right? are people finding value from the products that's ultimately over the long run what makes the stock successful and so it's life, though there's daily volatility in everything it's the big picture, it's what you're trying to get up and achieve, what you're doing in the morning. what goodness are you trying to put into the world. >> and then how much you want to play the short game verse the long game. thinking about what is your mission and are you driving that mission forward every single day. for us it's our mission and it's also innovation and it's continuing to move the needle,
3:16 pm
because if we don't do it, no one else -- there's no -- there's no one else doing it, right? and no one is going to do it quite like us. and so it's important that we continue to stay on course and not let the outside world kind of distract us from our mission. >> alba said the whole going public experience, she called it an out of body experience just because of how male dominated it has been she cited a stat between 2013 and 2020, only 18 companies went public with a female ceo or founder. so clearly there was a lot of talk about how these two women were breaking barriers what whitney said of bumble is that going public was a huge milestone because it showed that her business, which she created as a dating website for women to make the first move, to empower women, was not just like a girls thing. it became a serious business and she was able to prove that in the public markets and she
3:17 pm
thinks investors get that now, even though the stock has obviously been hit really hard since its ipo. >> both of those high-profile, inspiring founders i'm going to be a little cheeky here it seems that rich people and investors with cash on the sidelines are a lot better at seeing the big picture i wonder to what degree these companies are going to get pushed to reprice equity awards for the rank and file who had not only big hopes but big expectations that their compensation would be at a level that it's probably not going to be at based on the current levels >> we did not get into that topic. it's a good question, jon. clearly the environment is changing in terms of belt tightening and if we are facing a consumer slowdown how these growth companies are going to tackle it. it's really the first time they have been public an seen any kind of downturn and by big takeaway is these web
3:18 pm
are thinking about the big picture and doing good the whole idea of a mission-driven company, it's not just mum bobo-jumbo that we're talking about. they're thinking about how to improve the lives of women whitney has been extremely vocal on the roe v. wade decision by the supreme court. called it devastating this morning, doubled down today in our conversation and how they're approaching these issues, at the same time keeping their businesses growing and trying to prove that they can disrupt, in both cases, much better industries, procter & gamble and kimberly clark with the honest company's case. and bumble, match, and tinder where whitney used to work so they're focused on more than just shareholder capitalism, but clearly these models will be tested because we are in a difficult economic environment. >> do we have a david and goliath environment for female
3:19 pm
ceos something that's not so male metaphor >> i'll think about it but it is like that. you're on the right track. let's check the markets because as i mentioned at the beginning of the show, really on a downswing in this last hour and that has accelerated the dow now down 1.3%. that's more than 400 points. the s&p down 1.33. the nasdaq down knocking on the door of 2% up next, oil and energy stocks pulling back on this final day of the first half but it's a different story for solar stocks we will tell you what's behind that divergence. as we head to break, check out some of today's top search tickers on the 10-year yield followed by the s&p, bitcoin, tesla and the nasdaq we'll be right back.
3:20 pm
this is redefining storytelling, at the speed of now. this is tracking and publishing your content in real time. this is the system you built, captivating a global audience. this is how. airtable.
3:21 pm
3:22 pm
here's a real bright spot in today's trading, solar stocks.
3:23 pm's pippa stevens explains why these names are hot today. >> that is right, jon. solar stocks are getting some love with the invesco solar fund up 2.6% and holding on to a slight gain for the month in what's been a bleak time for the broader market looking at today's winners, those through shoals technologies, maxeon solar and jinko up sunrun is on the move. bank of america reiterated its buy rating on the storm warning saying the street is underappreciating the company's pricing power. b of a did take its target from $45 to $40 but that's still about 70% above where the stock is trading right now but despite this recent strength, many of these names are still sharply below prior highs. the group has been hit by numerous headwinds, including rising rates, policy uncertainty and supply chain issues that have forced companies to hike prices for consumers jon, some sunshine today but a
3:24 pm
cloudy outlook here over the past few months and year to date >> and of course we're all watching the forecast for the second half, pippa, thanks. up next, highlights from sara eisen's conversation with the ceos of hp and pepsi from the aspen ideas festival find out how rising recession fears are impacting their businesses when "closing bell" returns.
3:25 pm
3:26 pm
3:27 pm
3:28 pm
let's get a quick choengt mar check on the markets the dow is down 300 points it was down 400 points the s&p off by 1%, the nasdaq off by about 1.4 now let's head back out to aspen where sara eisen spoke earlier with the ceos of hp inc. and pepsico. what did you learn >> turns out they went to the same business school in spain. not at the exact same time we had a wide-ranging conversation with them both talking leadership, sustainability, diversity and more of course i also asked both of them whether they think the u.s. is heading into a recession. listen >> i don't think anybody in the world is able to say whether we are going to have a mild recession, big recession or the economy is going to recover
3:29 pm
because something that nobody suspected today will happen. what we need to do as leaders of our companies is be able to manage the company in whatever happens, and this is really what i want now. >> but are you seeing a change in the environment are you seeing it show up in the business >> what we see is the same things you see we have seen as we get in our last calls, consumer demand is weakening, inflation continues to grow. what will this bring super hard to predict. >> i know you're limited and in a quiet period but is there anything you want to say about the consumer environment >> i think obviously the huge inflation will hurt the consumer and force consumers to adopt different strategies to make their budgeted work. now to your point of recession, i think europe will probably have more impact than other parts of the world it is hard right now you think about the energy
3:30 pm
costs, you think about the food costs in europe is going to be impacted the consumer and the business. i think the u.s. has much more healthy unemployment levels and economy at this point. so to tell you the truth, we have labor challenges right in the u.s. we cannot fulfill our demand sometimes in our factories so i think the u.s. probably has more chances of navigating through this with maybe minor demand impact, but we have to slow down inflation for sure that is something that is not healthy for us long term emerging markets to my surprise, they're doing very well in terms of demand, especially latin america is a part of the world that i think is getting a lot of money from the u.s so there's a lot of money that is going down to mexico and other -- central america from people working in the u.s., high levels of employment here. >> he was very bullish on latin america. overall the conversation really
3:31 pm
centered on how to create and shift an organization to become purpose driven, even during times where we're seeing an economic slowdown like this. we talked about the environmental priorities and both of them welcomed regulation on this front to try to create more of a standard both of them also exemplified this purpose-driven leadership and that's why they get credit from places like just capital, which does the rankings on esg metrics that we follow and partner with on cnbc pepsi is number 12 overall out of 100 on the list, number one in its category, hp is 27 and third in tits industry they took how they're doing on the environment to how they're doing with their workforce and policies for employees, definitely things we talked about but also things that investors are wrondering how do we hold these companies accountable and should we value them the same way when cash flow
3:32 pm
and profits are the priority. >> very interesting observation from pepsi on remittances. sara, thanks. here's where we stand in the markets. trying to make up some ground in the last half hour of the first half of the year the dow now down just 230 points the s&p off by 0.75 of a percent and the nasdaq off just around 1% up next, jeremy siegel and bob doll discuss whether a comeback could be in the cards for the second half of the year. check out bitcoin down sharply today, falling below $19,000. now down nearly 60% for the ar soar 'lbeight back. well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now.
3:33 pm
wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding] hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened!
3:34 pm
like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪
3:35 pm
[zoom call] ...pivot... work bye. vacation hi! book with priceline. 'cause when you save more, you can “no way!” more. no wayyyy. no waaayyy! no way! [phone ringing] hm. no way! no way! priceline. every trip is a big deal.
3:36 pm
we're just about 24 minutes away from closing out the first half of the year it has not wibeen pretty. joining us now is jeremy siegel and bob doll welcome to both of you professor siegel, i really want to know whether it's guidance, earnings revisions, direction of gas prices, what's that most important signal that you're going to be watching for in the second half of the year to determine whether we're heading into a serious recession or not? >> well, i think we're in a recession. the data this morning was very bad. not on the inflation front, but on real spending and the indicators that i look at, the forecasters now say second quarter will also print a negative gdp growth number as you know, minus 1.6% in the
3:37 pm
first quarter. now, it is a technical definition, it isn't followed by the national bureau exactly. two consecutive quarters of declining real gdp generally signal a recession >> that's why i said a serious -- that, professor, is why i said a serious recession what are you watching to see if it's a really painful one or longer lasting one versus just a technical one? >> well, i mean it's a real one. whether it's going to be shallow or deep is yet to be seen. listen, we have to look at commodity prices i'm not surprised the 10-year dropped below 3. that's a really big slowdown because with inflation and the 10-year below 3, commodity prices falling everywhere. i don't think it's going to be a severe recession, jon. but i think that we are in one of the most unique, unusual
3:38 pm
recessions with unemployment 3.6% and a strong labor market, yet demand and inflation is eating away at the purchasing power of the consumer. >> right, yeah working to move backwards more slowly perhaps bob doll, what about it, is this market pricing in realistically what is likely to happen in the second half or is there still this idea priced in that earnings are going to be higher? >> the key is to answer that question and i think most of us are now of the view that earnings aren't going to be -- continue to go higher the first six months of this year. the question is how much lower to those estimates go. i'm with the professor i think it's shallow i don't think the nber will say we have a recess based on the technical first and second quarter. i think it's going to be more about bumbling along as the
3:39 pm
market is likely to do with a lot of choppiness and volatility inflation probably is coming off. commodity prices as we just talked about so giving a little less inflation, a little less earnings, maybe that means the focus in the second half is more on earnings and less on pe that doesn't mean we go straight up but i think it can be bouncier and frustrating both the bulls and the bears. >> that would be nice, bob, but how vulnerable is this market to an external shock like covid that we got in the first halftime of year are we on tenuous ground that this is shallow? >> yeah, tenuous is a good word. how long does the war last what are the ramifications of it covid, you're right. the interviews that sara did at the bottom of the hour, europe is facing a lot worse than we are here in the u.s.
3:40 pm
we'll manage our way through somehow. don't forget consumers still have $2 trillion of excess savings on their balance sheets. that will cushion the inflation problem a bit. of course we still have a pretty strong labor market, even though it's weakening somewhat. so i think we'll make our way through here a bit longer. i'm not saying no recession ever but i think we can push it off a bit here. >> professor siegel, president biden said the u.s. is going to back ukraine as long as necessary, whatever the implications for gas prices, inflation, et cetera is that priced into the market >> well, as we see those gasoline prices falling on the wholesale level and the retail level, natural gas falling, you know, jon, it might surprise us. four weeks from now we have the
3:41 pm
fed. everyone is saying 75 is a slam dunk if we continue to get the weakness that i see, it might be 50, maybe 25 you know, then i think we're near the bottom of a bear market once investors can see, hey, i can see that peak of the fed in terms of hiking. i can see that road down away. it may be a recession, but it's been mostly rates that have sent down stock prices more than profits. really profits have held up fairly well. it's been the rates. if we can see a peak in rates, i think that would stabilize the stock market. >> yeah, okay. maybe things have gotten bad enough so it's like a sunny recession scenario i like it, professor siegel, bob doll, thank you. >> thank you. up next, chart expert katie stockton looks at whether the
3:42 pm
recent rally in tech stocks is more than just an oversold bounce. that story plus mixed messages about the state of the consumer, and a countdown to u inde wtaarnings whene ke yosi the market zone
3:43 pm
as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind.
3:44 pm
so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like
3:45 pm
dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity yes, we are now in the "closing bell" market zone barbara doran is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. plus katie stockton on mega cap tech stocks and kristina partsinevelos looking ahead to
3:46 pm
micron's earnings. stocks paring some of the pain from earlier in the date but the major averages still in the red. the worst performers on the dow, disney, nike, salesforce the nasdaq is set to finish the first half down nearly 30% with netflix, alliant technology and docusign among the worst performers what has distinguished itself today and heading into the second half? >> well, certainly the market action has not been on the positive side, and i think restoration hardware news this morning was very unsettling because investors are very concerned about earnings it seems the market has discounted the fed rates we've seen pes come in from 21 spo .5 to 16, 16.5 we've seen signs of growth slowing everywhere, whether it's housing, retail, commodity prices the question is how deep is it
3:47 pm
going to be? are we heading into recession? probabilities have gone up to over 50% so it's now a concern with restoration hardware coming out this morning disappointing and cutting their numbers. oh, my gosh, this is a sign of things to come as we see many more company earnings reporting. so that is, i think, the downside the good side this morning was the pce number, we are seeing signs, small as they are, that inflation is beginning to moderate and that will probably take some time, we don't know. i don't think most people expect to see a big drop but i think that is a positive there's a lot to talk about today in terms of this market action >> yeah, barbara, you called i rh i call it devastation hardware the company slashed its outlook for revenue, now expecting negative annual sales growth versus prior flat to up 2% they are blaming slowing luxury
3:48 pm
home sales appearnd the fed's r hikes. stifel says the u.s. consumer remains resilient and saying costco, monster beverage, celsius are favorite retail names. it seems like two different economies, even more than usual for the poor, the lower middle class versus those that normally have a bit more money to spend and yet is there the risk of even those higher edged consumers at least financially reflected in these restoration hardware numbers starting to feel a pinch >> well, i think you're definitely right on the lower income we know that most of the income on lower income, under 75,000, goes to food, housing, gas, and they'll feel the pinch with higher prices. on the luxury, i think that the rh comment was about thinking that because you're seeing
3:49 pm
luxury housing down, demand down 18% right now that will spill over into them it's going to be interesting to see. with them you don't know how much was pulled forward because we know there's been so much demand that was in the hard goods, which has now switched to services so i think it's a little murkier with rh but we're not seeing as much hurt in the luxury in although stocks, holdings and bonds are down tremendously. >> how wealthy do people feel. walgreens one of the biggest drags of the day but the company did report a larger than expected drop in operating income partially because of falling demand for covid vaccines bertha coombs joins us what are the other headwinds >> the vaccines definitely a big one but the pharmacy itself.
3:50 pm
one of the things they talked about is they are trying to staff up again their pharmacies so that they can reopen for more normal hours rather than truncated hours that a lot of these pharmacies have been operating under since the pandemic and that is one of the things they are focused on to do that, you've got to pay up walmart just said it was going to pay its pharmacists $20 an hour so that's one of the headwinds that they have in terms of being able to staff up and have more volume in the pharmacy but also pay more. >> bertha, thanks. barbara, it's a good thing that we don't necessarily have to fight the pandemic in the same way that we did a couple of years ago but this also speaks to normalizing patterns and not always being able to anticipate the economic effects when those normalize. >> john, that is an excellent point. i think one of the things, investors are so pessimistic and
3:51 pm
it's hard not to be when you see day after day we have brief bear market rallies and then we're back to this we've just had a massive imbalance caused by the shutdown in march we've seen it worldwide. when we suddenly started to open up, we flooded the system with liquidity both monetarily and fiscally demand exploded, the supply chain was already disrupted and then you had demand overwhelming supply last year things were priced to perfection but it's still going to be choppy as we get back to normal times and i think we will. if you look at what's happening in the labor market, yes, there's fewer job postings but it's still 2 h-1 the layoffs are in the smaller profitless companies that need to pull in their horns, but you've still got wage growth up thank goodness from the inflation ending the consumer balance sheet, as
3:52 pm
are banks and corporations, the balance sheet is in great shape. one of your guests mentioned that $2 trillion savings number that is out there waiting to be spent. so consumer demand is maude raiding, you've seen consumer confidence numbers, but we are in good shape and that's what the fed is banking on. i think they do have a little bit more room for error than you might normally. >> that would be nice. you talk about getting back to normal i wonder is that pre-covid or pre-qe. now, we're looking at key technical levels to watch in the mega cap tech stocks katie stockton here to break that down. hey, katie. >> hey, how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. so how do the technicals look? >> well, you can imagine not great. we do have negative momentum behind the market, the major indices, the mega caps on both weekly and monthly charts. that leaves us with these
3:53 pm
short-term very fleeting relief rallies. we've seen another one in the past week or two and they seem to last no more than three or four days. it leaves us in a position where we really don't feel like we get proper selling opportunities so very frustrating, especially for the mega caps like apple apple is a huge component of these major indices and impacts investor sentiment in a way because it at one time felt like it was invincible. like it would only trend higher. and now we've seen not only a corrective phase but also a phase of underperformance. when you have these mega cap stocks exhibit downside leadership that's problematic for the major indices. i suspect on the back of this bounce that we've seen, we'll see more of the same. >> yeah, major indices taking another dip into the close we'll see what happens in the next six minutes or so
3:54 pm
but katie, you mentioned -- we are talking about technicals should i make anything of the fact that so much of the market's action has been timed to the calendar from the january 3rd peak that to the end of q1 and q2 we had these rallies and people lot oh, well, maybe, maybe, and then they faded >> i wouldn't look too far into it once we figure these influences out, they pretty much go away. i felt like everybody this week thought the market would go higher into the end of the quarter and it really hasn't done that. in fact we have downturns in a lot of our short-term indicators that suggest we might be getting ahead of the next possible breakdown. the level that we continue to watch for the s&p 500 in jeopardy is 3815 as soon as we see consecutive weekly closes below that level, that's just another major breakdown for the s&p. >> that puts a lot of pressure
3:55 pm
on friday this week for sure katie stockton, thank you. meanwhile chip stocks have been hit very hard this month. investors are hoping that micron's results after the bell can help end that semi slide kristina, what are investors watching in micron's report? >> the first thing is dram prices have been declining for the last little while from may to june. they jumped 1 respond 5% year over year they're dropping 13%. you had analysts that saying this was collapsing. there's concerns prices are dropping and inventory buildup maybe customers snapped up too many chips during the supply wail frenzy. they have a lot, so why buy some more and then the offset. the ceo said data center sales are really strong and so will
3:56 pm
that trend continue and offset the weakness that we've seen in pc and handset sales we've got freight costs climbing higher that should eat into margins smh and semi conductorsas a whole, this has been the worst month for semis and the etfs since 2008. >> barbara, kristina was just telling us the other day about the slowdown in demand for graphics chips now dram as well we know the overall pc market not so hot as far as demand goes what should we take into the second half? >> obviously the semis as a group are down over 30%. micron itself is down 40%. so i think you are seeing demand enclosing and consumer as we said, the key thing we want to watch is what's happening on their business side, industrial and autos in the enterprise space but the stock is at 5.5 pe on
3:57 pm
next year's earnings and typically trades 8 to 12 they have $6 million in cash book value which they sushlly don't trade on book value. the stock is around 55, increasing 50 bucks every quarter. valuation is dirt cheap. price targets coming in, but you are still seeing significant upside from here and very little downside i think the stock is pricing in a lot of bad news and the slowdown that we're all talking about what's happening in general. >> it does feel to me, barbara, as if there's a lot of weight resting on the hyperscalers. i mean the largest cloud providers. amazon, microsoft, google. the idea that they're going to keep their capital budgets high when it comes to buying chips for their data centers, that's going to be something that i'm watching for out of my crop's
3:58 pm
earnings is that something investors should have an eye on, do you think? >> oh, yeah. how much will demand slow down in those areas probably not that much this penetration in the cloud, for instance, these are transformative technologtechnols the question is how much is inventory and how much is cldel. this report is going to be quite interesting and very telling. >> we've got to hope that amazon didn't buy chips like they hired people, right? they hired too many and now they're trying to burn that off. if they did that with chips, that's not good for micron and many others. barbara, thank you. two minutes to go in the trading day. any final thoughts in this market action in general when it comes to retail or semis >> yeah, you know, people are worried where's the bottom, where's the bottom, is there a recession, is there not a recession? i think you have to look at
3:59 pm
where we've been and there are so many sectors that have gotten clobbered. and there are great names like nike down 40%, starbucks down 30%, target, walmart is down 15%, cost co 15% target and walmart when they reported they were one-time things that happened they misjudged the inventory, they had to which in hard goods. the consumer switched. i think the consumer has a ton of opportunities there's tons in technology facebook, meta, excuse me, is 9 or 10 pe amazon, all these things have come down dramatically maybe the bottom, we have another 5 to 10% to go but when this turns, i think the risk is to the upside further on in the second half which we are just about to begin so i'd be looking there and looking at names like gm and ford. so lots of opportunities >> yeah. lots of opportunity would be
4:00 pm
nice hopefully for those who are long at least, things perk up it's a happier second half anyway as far as the major indices go, still a bit weak into the close. the dow is down about 250 points, s&p down about 0.9% and the nasdaq off about 1.33. and with that let me hand it over to mike santoli and "overtime. welcome to "overtime." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bells but we're just getting started just ahead we'll get earnings from micron. the chip maker releasing results at any moment. we'll bring you those numbers as soon as they cross we start with our talk of the tape the great tug of war between inflation shock fading a bit and growth fears rising. which will win out as the s&p 500 officially hands in its worst start to a year since 1970, over half a year


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on