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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  August 21, 2011 10:00am-11:00am PDT

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unintended bipartisan, president obama's former press secretary, robert gibbs, joined the perry pile-on. never too early. >> when it comes to somebody like rick perry, they're going to wonder why a place like texas has one of the worst education systems. they're going towonder why a guy who doesn't like the government, the largest employer in texas is ft. hood, an army base. $25 billion from the economic recovery act went to texas and helped rick perry balance his budget. they're going to wonder why, quite frankly, they're 47th in wages. >> whatever else rick perry has done in this first week as a candidate, he has shaken things up. thanks for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crowley in washington. up next for our viewers in the u.s., "fareed zakaria: gps." -- captions by vitac -- this is gps, the global public square.
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this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. first up, a tour of the world and the united states with a terrific panel. we'll tackle the euro crisis, britain, riots, the united states and much more. then what in the world? should the u.s. be taking economic queues from iran? maybe. i'll explain. next, an inside look at intelligence and the war on terror are john miller who has just resigned as one of the nation's top spooks. finally, a last look at how not to be a spy. first, here is my take. i wrote a blog post for our gps website, that has gotten a great deal of reaction. let me talk about it for a moment. it all started because i read a website that pointed out after the s&p downgrade of the united states, no country with a presidential system of government had a aaa rating from all three rating agencies. only countries with parliamentary systems have that honor with the possible exception of france which could be characterized as having a parliament, a prime minister, as well as a president.
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this brought to mind my years in political science grad school and an essay by a famous yale scholar, juan linz, who said parliamentary systems are superior to presidential systems because they allow for greater stability and purposeful action. in a parliament system, he contended, the legislature and the executive are fused, so there is no contest for national legitimacy and power. think of david cameron in england. he is the head of the coalition that won the election, head of the bloc that has a majority in parliament, and head of the executive branch as prime minister. remember the political battle surrounding the debt ceiling? it's actually impossible in a parliamentary system because the executive controls the legislature. there could not be a public spectacle of the two branches of government squabbling or holding the country hostage. in the american presidential system, in contrast, you have a presidency and a legislature, both of which claim to speak for
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the people. as a result, you always have a contest over basic legitimacy, who is actually speaking for and representing the people. in america today we take the struggle to an extreme. we have one party in one house of the legislature claiming to speak for all the people because theirs was the most recent electoral victory. and of course you have a president who claims a broader mandate as the only person elected by all the people. these are unresolvable claims. they invite constant struggle. there are, of course, advantages to the american system, the checks and balances have been very useful on occasion. let me give you an example. in 1945, britain enacted a quasi socialist economic blend that set the country on a bad, bad path. but look at the situation we're in today. western countries have all created welfare states and governmental systems that are cumbersome, sluggish and expensive, especially as the population ages. these need to be reformed.
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and many of these reforms are fairly obvious in social security, tax policy, energy policy. but the american government has lost the ability to actually implement any policy solutions because of political gridlock. look at what the s&p actually said in its downgrade. quote, america's governance and policymaking is becoming less stable, less effective and less predictable than we previously believed. despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, unquote. this is not just about the presidential system alone. recent developments have added to polarization and paralysis. the filibuster, for example, is not in the constitution. but it is now routinely used in the senate to allow a minority of one house to block all legislation. >> filibuster after filibuster. >> in a fast-moving world where other countries are acting quickly and with foresight, we're paralyzed.
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it's all very well to say we have the greatest system in the history of the world, but against the backdrop of dysfunction, it sounds a lot like thoughtless cheerleading. let's get started. it is time for our tour of the world. joining me on the journey, four very distinguished guests. jeffrey sachs is professor of economics at columbia university, named by "time" magazine one of the 100 most influential people in the world. from that magazine, rana foroohar, the deputy manager, who wrote last week's cover story on the decline and fall of europe. richard haass is the president of the council on foreign relations and has worked for the state department and national security council and lots of other places. we also have the eminent british historian andrew roberts, author of "the new york times" bestseller "the storm of war."
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welcome. >> thank you. >> jeff, let me start with you. you talked in the "financial times" piece this week about the way in which both europe and america were fundamentally misreading the economic crisis. i was struck by it because for just somebody who i would regard as a man of the left, and you were saying that even the whole conception in america, the democratic left of the stimulus program, of another stimulus is misguided. we've just -- i took you to mean just extending unemployment benefits, et cetera, is not going to jump-start the economy because you're just trying to jump start a consumption-based economy. and what we need are much deeper, longer-term investments, correct? >> the world is in an economic upheaval, clearly. it's a transatlantic crisis right now. consumers are exhausted. our economies are not competitive right now. there was a little blip, but it's obviously gone away.
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we're at stagnation at best and maybe entering another recession right now. so we need a different approach. my view is that we can't have consumption-led growth anymore. we have to rebuild the foundations of our economies, both in the u.s. and europe. we have to become more competitive with our new competitors. we have to have better skills, technology, infrastructure. that means an investment-led recovery, quite different from the short-term stimulus. >> rana, your article, one of the things you pointed out was the european strategy of responding to these multiple -- these serial debt crises has been to keep hoping that growth will bail you out, growth in europe, in germany, but most importantly actually growth in the u.s. >> yeah. >> and all of that now, we're all beginning to realize -- and maybe that's what this week's market news is -- we're all realizing -- you put it in another column of yours -- we're living in a 2% world. in other words, economies aren't
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going to grow at 4%, but at 2%. >> i wish i could bring better news. we're definitely in a 2% economy. i think that's why you saw the european debt explosion in the last few weeks. it could have happened six months ago or three months ago or three months from now, but it happened as it did because the numbers from the u.s. started coming in and they were very weak. earlier in the year we were expecting 4% growth. we'll be lucky to hit 2%. >> if you have 2% rather than 4% as projected, all your numbers look worse. >> absolutely. >> your budget deficit, debt to "fareed zakaria: gps." >> consumption. you have to remember the u.s. and europe are each other's largest trading partners. stuff flows back and forth across the atlantic. americans aren't consuming, that's bad for europe and vice versa. the debt crisis is bringing this issue home. you see riots in the uk. you see -- you've already seen that in athens. i think you'll see more. and europe will have to deal with this political problem. >> politically, does europe have the kind of leadership it's
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going to take? they've tried to do a bunch of things and kind of kicked the can down the road with a package that has sort of satisfied the market for a month, and then they have to come up with another package. >> markets only get satisfied for about a day as we've seen this past week. half measures aren't working. the short answer, europe doesn't have the leadership because europe isn't. we talk about europe. we always put out the fiction of europe. let's get real. it's -- nationalism is still powerful. national governments still control many of the decisions. you have the common currency which is genuinely european. the monetary policy the genuinely european. many other of the most important decisions are done nationally. who speaks for europe? is it someone sitting in brussels? is it somebody in berlin? henry kissinger's old complaint, what number do i call? i actually think that question is still legitimate. there isn't a europe in a truly integrated sense. that's the question for europeans.
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after all these years of talking about it, are they prepared to do it? are they prepared in some ways to become the united states of europe? if not, this crisis is going to linger and this crisis won't be the last crisis. >> the key to solving this crisis, andrew, would be for the germans to agree -- when people say central europe's debt, meaning take all this debt that is difficult for the italians and the germans and the greeks to pay and centralize it, which means let's all stand behind germany, which can pay it all, are the germans -- it seems to me what's happening the germans are becoming a normal country, saying we don't have to keep bearing this cross of europe. world war ii was a long time ago. we're not going to pay for the greeks. >> absolutely. would you want to? a lot of germans want to go back to the deutschmark and who is to blame them? as a britain, i'm thrilled that the sterling is not in the eurozone at the moment. yeah. this is something -- tories,
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anti-european tories like me have been saying for the last 15 years since the last point that we got to, which is basically that every country needs different inflation rates, different rates of interest all the way along and at different times. so, of course you're not going to have a proper nation unless either they do what richard was saying, which is become a single country, which i believe is completely impossible, or then go back to the nationalisms they had earlier. >> can i say one thing about germany? this is a nightmare. for germany, europe was really the central tenet of post world war ii integration. this was normalization. >> it was their redemption. >> exactly. this is the way you're not going to repeat the errors of the past. for this to fall apart would be psychologically and politically -- really, it would be a fundamental tremor, earthquake, in the history of europe. >> forget what we would like to see happen.
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two years from now will the euro still exist with all its member states? >> i think it will exist, but possibly not with all the member states. i think what you need to see now is germany and france come together, really led by germany and say, you know what, we're not going to let italy and spain go under, we'll secure the debt. but that's what's got to happen. >> i'm asking predictions. that means euro with fewer countries? >> i think so. >> the trouble is with greece having its debt in euros rather than drachma, you can't really go back to the drachma. >> i think the euro will survive. obviously it's a close call. what i don't think is easy is one or two countries withdraw and the rest holds together so once you start to unravel the contagion effect would be severe. i think they should fight to hold the whole thing together. >> they will fight to hold it. i don't know if they'll succeed. the effort will be ways of
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building more of a safety net in europe, capitalizing banks, germans will continue to write checks, even though they're unhappy writing those checks. we've not yet seen the end of the effort to have the euro sur sflooif this current form. i think the chances of suspensions, maybe not formal leavings, will come up with some kind of a figment. the idea of suspensions or temporary -- >> soft default. >> something like that has to come. there has to be some correction. >> when we come back, we'll talk about all the other problems in the world. [ female announcer ] in the grip of arthritis, back, or back joint pain?
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aspercreme breaks the grip, with maximum-strength medicine and no embarrassing odor. break the grip of pain with aspercreme. and we are back on our world tour with jeff sachs, richard haass, rana foroohar and andrew roberts. let's talk about the britain riots because they're sort of interesting. there's a paper floating around the internet that looks at austerity programs for 100 years and points out that they always seem to have some relationship to rioting, that every time you start cutting budgets, you have riots.
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does that seem plausible to you? >> i think we should see the british riots in the context of a lot of unrest in a lot of countries. this has been a very, very shaky spring all over the world. of course, it's the arab spring so-called, but that's spread to israel with hundreds of thousands of people in the streets. the british riots are obviously a distinct phenomenon, but i think they're part of this and i wouldn't be surprised if it comes to the united states in one way or another. we already had tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people out in madison earlier this year. there's a lot of unhappiness in a lot of parts of the world right now. it can manifest itself in hooliganism as in the uk. it can manifest itself in massive political demonstrations. i think we've just in a very shaky period and it's contagious. >> what you said at the beginning, governments are really having trouble performing and meeting expectations.
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i think it is different in every place of the world. in china you have problems where the government is being held to higher levels of accountability. when 40 people dies in a train cash, the internet gets going. people say what's going on here? why season the communist party in china -- >> look at the corruption in india. >> we talked about israel where 250,000 people out of a population of roughly 6 million saying, hey, we're not participating. i think the thing in the middle east is different. much more political. to me the commonality is the popular frustration with governments that are not seen to be delivering the deal. it's only going to get tougher given the ability of governments to deliver and insulate their populations from either globalization or technological innovation, that capacity is diminishing and i don't think people have essentially taken that on board and governments haven't been straight with them about it. >> andrew, as a brit, why are your countrymen rioting? >> my countrymen love rioting. they've been rioting for 200, 300 years.
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but in this particular case there are lots of sociological reasons as well as political and economic ones, not least because the cuts haven't started to bite in britain. they don't begin until next year. we have had a broken society with regard to parental control, with regard to appalling educational standards, with regard to a cowardice on the part of the police to crack down on especially young people, and a society that is dominated by fear of the young. it's terrifying on the streets of some of our -- even our rural cities on a friday night. so i think it's too easy to place this in an international context. i think there are lots of very british things that were responsible for this. >> rana, you see this as economic? >> i do. i think there's certainly some truth in what everyone said. if you look at the numbers, britain is the most unequal rich
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society in europe. it is also the least socially mobile amongst all the developed countries. it has a large underclass that's been around for many decades. i wouldn't blame the problems on cameron necessarily. i think it's interesting that i think in tottenham and hackney, some of the first areas to riot, poor areas of high unemployment in north london. you had an announcement of 10% budget programs, youth programs, housing allowances, things like that. i don't think those things are uncorrelated. >> it's interesting you can say on all those counts the u.s. is even more extreme. >> absolutely. >> more inequality. we have a more broken and serious underclass right now. so on all of those dimensions, we have a pressure cooker in the united states. it hasn't exploded that way, but it is a real pressure cooker and, of course, legitimacy of government is at a historic low ebb right now in the united states, very dramatic. >> what do you think happens in the united states?
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>> the president has put himself in a very tough position, hyping this speech in september about jobs. i would be shocked if there's anything he can articulate that could get politically passed the congress that would make a significant debt in the american employment picture between now and the election. i just don't think those tools are available to put into play. >> i think it is all about jobs and it's all about growth. we've been so preoccupied with debt. really the solution is growth. how do you get there? i'd like to see the pendulum swing back to the private sector because they're sitting on $2.5 trillion in capital in the u.s. i think obama could get closer to business, the right kind of business, perhaps not the banks this time, but job-creating companies around the country and try to come up with ways to reward these companies for unleashing some of that capital, be it via tax policies or whatever. getting the private sector involved is the only way to create jobs and solve the problem. >> businesses are not spending in the united states because we're not competitive in large
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swaths of industry. the labor force lacks skills. and where skills are demanded, there's often a number of unfilled job positions right now. try to hire a good programmer. there's huge demand, but the labor market isn't supplying that. we have an education challenge. we have an infrastructure challenge. we have an energy challenge. i don't think the problem in america as it's usually depicted is accurate, that this is a stalemate between two parties. this is actually a duopoly, two parties that are pretty much aligned, protect the rich campaign contributors, protect the big businesses. they're both on the side of cutting right now. nobody is on the side of investing for rebuilding the economy because that would take sacrifice at the top. the top doesn't care. they're off in the world markets, off in the emerging economies, off making money elsewhere. they've left america, at least
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one foot out the door. and that's the real problem that neither party is facing honestly. >> andrew, do you think, as somebody has studied the decline of britain, living in america now, does this feel like britain in the '20s? >> not yet, no. you do have various areas of excellence. you have your universities, you have some companies that are world leaders, and you also seem to have a sense of -- you don't see a function of it at the moment, but there is something about american optimism, which means that in the past historically, you have been able to talk about having -- being special, being exceptional, being an unusual force that can regenerate. i'm not seeing that right now at the moment. i can't believe that that's been entirely driven out of the dna of america. >> andrew roberts, rana foroohar, richard haass, jeff sachs, thank you so much.
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now for our "what in the world" segment. from the white house to london's house of commons and beyond, few westerners have anything nice to say about mahmoud ahmadinejad. >> we have a leader in iran that announced he wants to destroy israel. >> iran supports terrorism.
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>> one group has praise for iran's president. it's not a group based in tehran but in washington. the international monetary fund. yes, the imf's latest report paints a pretty picture of iran's economy. it says growth has hit 3.2% and will accelerate still further. inflation has dropped from 25% to 12% in the last two years, and tehran has managed to do what every major oil exporter can only dream of accomplishing, its slashed subsidies on gas and recouped $60 billion in annual reven revenues, one-sixth of iran's entire gdp. why is this happening? and how can it be happening despite years of economic sanctions? what in the world is going on? some say the imf numbers can't be right. we have no reason to doubt their work, asserting their projections were independent of the iranian government. the real story is iran has actually begun implementing some economic reforms.
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for decades iran's leaders have tried to wean its people off cheap oil, oil subsidized by the government. it's not sustainable to have these large subsidies. iran knows it and so does every country from saudi arabia to venezuela. in the same way any talk of tax increases in america is considered heresy, people in oil-rich countries believe as an article of faith they deserve cheap oil. how did iran finally cut out the freebies? the back story is a complex game of chess between ahmadinejad and someone much more powerful, the supreme leader ayatollah khomeini. one theory goes like this. the ayatollah thought cutting subsidies would make ahmadinejad deeply unpopular. so he ok'd it. sandra endo suing revoel would remove one man who had come to challenge the stream leader's power. another theory is that ahmadinejad felt confident enough to go ahead with the reforms because he has now crushed the opposition green movement. either way, he seems to have played a smart hand.
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he's giving back half of the $60 billion in savings directly to the people in monthly deposits. every iranian, man, woman and child is eligible to receive the equivalent of $40 a month. that kind of money won't make any difference to tehran's upper classes, but that's not ahmadinejad's constituency. on the other hand, if you're poor, have many children and you make sure the whole family signs up for deposits, you will probably be saying, thanks, mr. president. the key thing to note here is president ahmadinejad had no choice, neither did the ayatollah. iran really couldn't afford the subsidies anymore. the economy is highly dysfunctional with massive distortions and subsidies, and washington's recent sanctions are beginning to bite. it's harder than ever before for iran to do business with the rest of the world. most of the major international traders of petroleum have stopped dealing with tehran. tehran have to rely on costly over-land shipments for its exports.
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it's become almost impossible to conduct dollar transactions with iran. we were left with the bizarre case last month of china resorting to the barter system to pay iran for $20 billion in oil. the imf has a point. iran is implementing much-needed reforms and as a result the economy is doing better. the irony is it's happening in some part because of american-led sanctions. talk about unintended consequences. we'll be right back. >> and when we talk to the people who are stopped in these plots and say, what got you started? if it's here on u.s. soil, inevitably it was a mouse and a computer screen. i need to think about something else when i run. [ male announcer ] with efficient i.t. solutions from dell, doug can shift up to 50% of his company's technology spend from operating costs to innovation. so his company runs better, and so does doug.
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hello, everyone. i'm fredricka whitfield with a look at the top stories. a gunfire and explosions rocked tripoli today as the fighting between libyan rebels and moammar gadhafi's forces intensified. a fierce gun battle broke out near a hotel where many international rorpters are staying. rebels say the opposition offensive in the capital is, quote, going easily. libyan officials deny that and say thousands of people are ready to defend tripoli against any invasion.
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the families of two american hikers sentenced to prison in iran are holding out hope for leniency. iran has handed down eight-year sentences for josh fattal and shane bauer. they were accused of spying. in a statement, their families are calling on iran to show compassion and release the two. back in the states, speculation is growing today that the sexual assault charges against former imf chief dominique strauss-kahn may be dropped. the woman making those charges has been asked to a closed-door meeting with prosecutors tomorrow in new york. no comment coming from the d.a.'s office. and join me at the top of the hour for more news. next, back to "fareed zakaria: gps." my next guest has had a fascinating career, weaving between media, law enforcement, and intelligence. you probably remember john miller from his abc news interview with osama bin laden
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or his seat in the anchor chair next to barbara walters. what you probably don't know, he just left a post at the pinnacle of the united states intelligence community. until earlier this month, miller was overseeing intelligence analysis in the office of the director of national intelligence. that's the president's principal intelligence adviser. he joins me now to offer his insights. first time since he's left the job. welcome. >> good to be here. thanks, fareed. >> the director of the national intelligence is the guy who every morning gives the president his daily intelligence briefing. this is what tells you all about the threats to the united states, the intelligence chatter. so what is that document like? >> it's a fascinating book. when you open the president's daily briefing for the first time, one you realize if you're seeing it for the first time, what a scary document it can be. the interesting thing about that is after you've read it and the components that make it every day for a period of months, the
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senses are a little dulled because it's scary every day so you get used to it. it is the best intelligence from the best collection apparatus on the planet, which is the u.s. intelligence community. not just raw intelligence, there are pieces of that. but there's also analysis that really puts together, probably better than any other document on earth, what it all means, what the future implications can be and what the strategic concerns are. >> why is it -- it does sound so scary day after day. most of it goes nowhere, amounts to nothing. most of the threats don't materialize. >> it's not because -- it's not an accident. the idea is when you've got that type of collection, you've got that kind of indicators and warning, you're able to influence those events, either by stopping the threat, shutting it down, capturing the people, arresting them or otherwise
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making it not happen. and if you look at a decade after 9/11 without a significant 9/11-style or -level attack on u.s. soil, that has been because of a lot of very effective work. but -- and i have to underline there -- there's a couple of places where we were just plain lucky and should have done better. >> let's talk about al qaeda in particular. what's your judgment on the state of al qaeda after the death of bin laden, after the arab spring? >> i think those are connected. those who say the death of bin laden breaks al qaeda don't understand how al qaeda was built and designed. al qaeda will go on without bin laden. those who say the opposite of that, which is that his death means nothing are also wrong. what you have is an organization that lost a terrible blow because they lost their charismatic leader. when you're operating on a
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global forum using the tools of global communication, the web and modern communications, cars mattic leader matters. zawahiri, who i have sat with and spoken with is not charismatic. he's all business, not terribly popular within the organization. but more than that -- >> i have to stop you there. you're one of the few people who actually met personally with both. >> yes. >> do you think zawahiri was smarter than bin laden? a lot of people say he was the brains and bin laden was the charismatic face. >> i would say based on my personal experience when i was in al qaeda's camps as a reporter, zawahiri was running the show. what i mean by that is he was calling the shots. he was the person moving behind the scenes, making things happen. bin laden was produced, if you will, as the messenger. i'm not sure that wasn't close to the business model. and i think that matters. when you look at him as the head of al qaeda, i have yet to see a
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debriefing of a suspect in a significant terrorism plot who said i was inspired by the videotapes of ayman al zawahiri. that is telling. on the other hand, you have people who transcended this model. if you want to look at the idea that the messenger is actually more important than the message, zawahiri doesn't matter when you have an anwar alaqi, able to form his own messages in perfect, unaccented english with in a western vent. if you look at many of the most serious plots over the last two years, the majority of them targeting u.s. soil were inspired by anwar awlaki. that matters. >> do you think the arab spring discredits al qaeda's core with the premise of al qaedas, all the dictator ships in the arab world in particularly. the only way you can get rid of them is through violence,
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terrorism. what people want to replace them are islamic governments? what you've seen are democratic movements that topple these governments, some of these governments and no great demand, instead a demand for democracy. >> i think the answer to that question, which is a very interesting question because we're at the beginning of that story, is ayman al zawahiri, al qaeda's current leader, personally spent 23 years of his life trying to overturn that very regime in egypt, hosni mubarak. a bunch of kids with smart phones and good understanding of social media did it in 3 1/2 weeks. one would say that that blows up al qaeda's business model. every young person who was thinking maybe i'll follow the word of the terrorist because that's the only way to achieve change through violence, had to second-guess that and say, wait a minute, this other thing may work better, much better, with less bloodshed and faster. >> net-net. where does al qaeda stand as a kind of threat to the united states, to western governments?
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>> al qaeda is not going away this year with the death of bin laden, not going away next year, and it will try to capitalize on events and hone communications. net-net, does al qaeda have the capability today to launch another attack on the scale of 9/11? that is very unlikely. will al qaeda lower the bar, as i believe they have, and accept a larger number of lesser attacks if they can do that? i think the answer to that is yes. i think the evidence of that is, if they can get one guy on one plane to blow it up over detroit, that was acceptable to them. if they could get an affiliate to put one guy with a truck bomb in times square, they were willing to accept that. if they can get one group of guys with guns to attack european cities in a mumbai-style attack, they were willing to go forward with that. i think that will be a continuing concern. i believe they will continue to target things that will not just kill people but attempt to harm the economy, which is in enough
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trouble all by itself. >> stay with me, john. when we come back, we'll drill down and ask about specific threats to the united states from al qaeda, from other organizations right when we come back. t me make you smile ♪ ♪ let me do a few tricks ♪ some old and then some new tricks ♪ ♪ i'm very versatile ♪ so let me entertain you ♪ and we'll have a real good time ♪ [ male announcer ] the new hp touchpad starting at $399.99. ♪ with aveeno nourish plus moisturize. active naturals wheat formulas target and help repair damage in just 3 washes. for softer, stronger... ... hair with life. [ female announcer ] nourish plus. only from aveeno.
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we are back with john miller who just left a post at the top of the u.s. intelligence community at the office of the director of national intelligence.
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let me understand what are the threats to the united states. what keeps you up at night? >> well, the stock answer to that, because i've heard that question of bob mueller and the director of the cia and everybody else is the threat of al qaeda or another terrorist group obtaining a nuclear weapon. i think what actually keeps me up more at night is the much more likely scenario, perhaps less devastating, of the effect of lowering the bar. having effective communicators using social media and the web to reach out to the lone wolves and to say you can be alone you can have the force of personality gather just three or four people around you and you can do something that's low tech and low cost but high yield and be a big hero at it, this is something they have honed almost to an art. and when we talk to the people who are stopped in these plots and say what got you started, if
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it's here on u.s. soil inevitably, it was a mouse and a computer screen and a chat or video from somebody very far away. >> and this comes from any one place in terms of al qaeda's operations? >> particularly from anwar aulaqi in yemen, and that has been very interesting, because anwar alaw i can was not a big operator for al qaeda. he was a propagandist off to the side. there became a moment in time when they realized here is a guy who is reaching western recruits in europe and the united states and we need to move him up in prominence within the organization, give him operational command, allow his voice to have more resonance, and it's certainly having resonance. if you look at the string of cases where the people said -- whether it was the times square bomber, faisal shahzad, who said nobody ever sorted it out for me
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the way anwar awlaki did on youtube. and when i listened to his videos, i thought he was talking to me. that's a powerful communicator. >> one reads in the paper about yemen, somalia, nigeria. where do you see the place that worries you the most? >> well, let's take the triangle. pakistan, which has the center of those networks and a large number of people who cross over regularly between pakistan and number of people who cross over regularly between pakistan and europe, particularly great britain. yemen, where you have anwar awlaki as a key communicator reaching directly to the west and somalia. somalia is the odd duck because you think somalia, where is the threat from there? a decent number of the recruits from al shabab have been american citizens, two of whom have become suicide bombers, the first americans to ever be suicide bombers from a terrorist
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group and a large number of those recruits -- i mean more than a dozen or so, have been american citizens from places like minneapolis and portland and others, where they have large somali communities. i flag that because the ability of al shabab as a terrorist group to take someone who came from united states who traveled a long route, to turn them around and say, the way al qaeda does when they gets a u.s. recruit in pakistan, go back to united states, fly under the radar and do something there, is a significant factor. we haven't seen it yet, but it's something that definitely has occurred to them. >> when you hear the story, you must have heard about it more in government, of the nigerian underwear bomber whose father alerts the u.s. embassy that this guy is turning to radical islam, who exhibits other signs of dangerous
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behavior, and the u.s. intelligence community somehow doesn't pick up that, doesn't that worry you because these people are so random, they will often not have a background, and yet the few signs you get are lost in the sea of intelligence gathering. >> the one you're referring to, umar farouk abdulmutallab, the only reason that plain did not blow up, in attempt to make his bomb function, he broke it. we weren't good there. we were lucky. yet, it was not an intelligence failure. we had all the intelligence information we needed in pieces to give us a strong likelihood of detecting that plot. there were pieces over at this agency and pieces over at that agency and pieces from foreign partners which strung together would have made that relatively clear. that was a problem of we operate in massive sets of data, in systems that don't touch each other and that data doesn't
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necessarily correlate until some smart analyst or someone else takes it and says, i'm going to run it through these outside systems if they have the access. ten years after 9/11 that is a problem that still needs fixing. >> how much of the world of intelligence that you've now spent time deep inside, how much of it resembled what you thought it was going to look like when you were studying it, reporting on it? how different is it from the james bond movies? >> well, there's been an arc there. used to go to those movies and they would walk into the darkened room and there would be the screens and computers and pull up any data and zoom right into the secret team moving in on the bad guy base, you could watch it all in real time. at the time i went those movies, it was all nonsense. today it's all true. the technology is amazing. the capabilities to collect
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information are stunning. as you learn about programs that are closed off to most of the intelligence community and you realize the capabilities and how deep and sophisticated they are, it is amazing. and it's a real eye opener. >> john miller, pleasure to have you. >> good to be here. thanks, fareed. >> we will be right back. e skip♪ ♪ and letting go ♪ over the river and down the road ♪ ♪ she was waiting up around the bend ♪ ♪ smile at me and then you take my hand ♪ [ female announcer ] nature valley granola bars, where delicious ingredients like toasted oats, with rich dark chocolate, sweet golden honey, or creamy peanut butter come together in the most perfect combinations. ♪ i was thinking that i hope this never ends ♪ ♪ yeah, i was just thinking ♪ i hope this will never end energy is being produced to power our lives. while energy developement comes with some risk, north america's natural gas producers are committed to
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to block pain signals for hours of relief. capzasin-hp. take the pain out of arthritis. this week moammar gadhafi's released a scud missile. it got me to thinking about the infamous history of scuds. that brings us to the question of the week -- during what conflict was scud missiles first used? was it, a, the vietnam war, b the iran/iraq war, c the i don't remember kip pure war, or d, the first gulf war. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. make sure you go to for ten more questions. and we always have fred interesting content, smart takes from some of pour favorite experts, and don't forget to
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follow us on twitter and facebook. this week's book of the week is by rory stewart, a british member of parliament and author who famously walked across afghanistan in the winter of 2001. they have written a book called "can intervention work?" they look at the lessons learned in bosnia and how those lessons were applied or misapplied in iraq and afghanistan. a very interesting and timely book. now for the last look. if you have dreams of xwking a spy, i have one piece of advice, don't take your cues from the stallsi. a berlin gallery has an exhibit of photographs found after the fall of the berlin wall. they're all from of course the state's security service taught on the art of disguising. ♪