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tv   Conflict Zone - Guest Bernard Jenkin  Deutsche Welle  January 24, 2019 1:30pm-2:00pm CET

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featured. music is bound to get. its fans the open stores. sounds good. so much more than just background music video. stores for your twenty three d. w. . practice it with each passing day it's come to mean a more disunited kingdom and the more damaged weaker government my guest this week here in london is bernard jenkin a leading campaigner and a conservative m.p. how did britain get into this crisis and how's it going to get out of it. welcome to conflicts. last summer you said deadlock in british politics it's
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usually result with a general election and if parliament is determined to block it to reason they will have to take decisions back to the people in the form of a general election pushing for that now it's high time. that's the usual conventional view of politics first of all that there was already a general election since the referendum but you put this forward last july yes i did but. what i was saying was that's the usual way of resolving this what's wrong with that no you're afraid of losing but i honestly don't think now will be the right time for a general election because the. we are so close to the twenty ninth of march deadline. which i stand and what's more parliament has already legislated democracy has been served. for the united kingdom to leave the european union the
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trench not to march with or without a withdrawal agreement but that could question is that by out to part this could be altered by act of parliament this would be very unusual you claimed last week that the prime minister despite the political defeat of laertes huge political defeat she suffered is now in a very strong position to go back to the e.u. and tell them to change the agreements so that it's acceptable to the house of commons very strong position really having suffered the worst defeat of any state house of commons history but look what's transpired over the weekend the prime minister seems to be going back to the european union invited by angela merkel no less who has said that fifty years from now it would look very strange if we didn't look back and say well why couldn't they find a compromise and i think some kind of compromise is what she needs to find a compromise that could. bring the deal you pay back on board a compromise that would bring a large number of conservative m.p.'s back on board. is still
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a possibility and i would invite. all to follow up her offer to be compromising why should they look again at the deal where they've already said this is the only deal on offer so that you can come back again in a couple of months and try to alter it again well there's been no consistency from the british side has i don't think the british side has negotiated particularly clearly and i do to some extent sympathize with our european partners that. the reason is government hasn't been very clear because of internal divisions within the within the government parliament has legislated that we're leaving on the twenty ninth of march now it's been clear about what it doesn't want us to resolve their self says yelling clear about what it does want while parliament has so far rejected the withdrawal agreement but it hasn't rejected the leaf date of the twenty ninth of march. it remains to be seen whether it does get to the e.u.
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there's very little point in a go shooting with someone who manifestly does not have a mandate for the deal she's already agreed let alone anything else in the future but she has a mandate as as does the house of commons as a whole to leave the european union to fulfill the referendum result and. as i keep repeating the law is now quite clear in the united kingdom and indeed in the european union we're leaving on that date now there are people in the house of commons who are trying to change that decision change the decision of parliament. they are assuming that the european union will automatically provide some extension to article fifty i magine the european union is going to want to ask what for why are you extending article fifty. one of the draft proposals extends article fifty for nine months do you really want the united kingdom to take part in the european union elections to the european parliament when we're planning to leave the
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european union just nine months later tell your sympathies are suddenly with them see well i'm i'm i'm. devarim to be understanding of the difficulties that we're facing but the keep repeating the pall of our parliament has spoken and legislated both main parties were elected on the basis of the. triggering of article fifty which set the date for the twenty ninth of march and that is now implemented in law. you've been saying that no deal is increasingly attractive but that's not what you and your vote leave colleagues promised the country was it time and again they promise great deals with the e.u. and everyone else instead they just fall into britain slap to them they turned out to be no student well. i have to confess that i think it's in the european union's interests to strike a sensible free trade deal with the united kingdom and whether we make that
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agreement before we leave which looks rather unlikely now or after we leave i believe that that's what will happen but in the end my point is that really broken promises were well worth the vote leave campaign didn't make promises we were campaigning for your fellow. erstwhile brecht's it secretary david davis constantly posts to both britain's exit terms and a new free trade agreement would be wrapped up within the article fifty timeframe that hasn't gone so well he said at the end of two years so in two of the sixteen the end of two years he said we will have other deals you don't have no i think there was definitely overconfidence there but i think it wasn't helped by the fact that the reason may. couldn't bring the cabinet together to agree what they were going to ask for and then and then started asking for a much more complicated arrangement than i think that president task was originally offering at march last last year and then the whole border question has been confected as a mechanism to try and split the united kingdom. in
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a way that's completely unacceptable i don't know why the prime minister ever accepted the premise of that discussion. in twenty seventeen the international development socially and fox told the country we're going to replicate the forty e.u. free trade agreements that exist before we leave the european union so we've got no disruption of trade believe me believe me he said we'll have up to forty ready for one second after midnight in march twenty nineteen now he says he's only confident about five false promises or well just lousy predictions they are the most important five including switzerland and norway. but the reason why other countries are not ready we are ready the reason why other countries are not ready is because they are convinced by all their propaganda that we're not going to leave on the twenty ninth of march and why wasn't any of that risk factored into these brave new world i think you'll find the government's position to be made very much more difficult by
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a large number of m.p.'s saying they support the result of the referendum and want to implement it and then they're being doing their best to be very obstructive and . to be unkind it's about this this is project fantasy on the part of the leave campaign wasn't it i mean like david davis is promising twenty sixteen that the first calling point for a british negotiator won't be brussels it will be berlin to strike the deal absolute access for german cars an industrial goods exchange for a sensible deal and everything else was what's worse the fact that that didn't happen or the fact that he simply had no idea that individually you members can't negotiate pileups well i wonder if i'm going to merkel is being is beginning to be a bit worried that the e.u. has been allowed to overplay its hand because if the e.u. thought it could take the united kingdom captive in these negotiations it's finding that that is not the case but you're not addressing the fact that the british political landscape is littered with these broken promises and i don't accept the
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promises i expect the main promises that we would leave on the twenty ninth of march and we will leave it. all the deals that would be the easiest deal in history to acquire if we leave on the twenty ninth of march i have no doubt that those those. free trade agreements the e.u. has with other countries will be innovated very quickly in order to facilitate trade between the united kingdom and those countries but there was a lot of ignorance on the leaf side wasn't there i mean even among some of the most visible campaigners like boris johnson for instance when he was questioned on t.v. last september turned out he didn't know that switzerland was in the single market and refused to accept it when he was told that was the total i'm not responsible for what is the we voted to let your living breaks it and you hear this sort of nonsense come out why don't you say this is wrong we're british people deserve the referendum result to be implemented this is the truth and you told them i something they deserve and they don't deserve
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a whole lot of m.p.'s who say they accept the referendum result and they are campaigning against it and i do advise our european partners not to overplay their hand. that we the united kingdom is becoming more likely by the day to leave on w t o terms which means it doesn't mean we leave without agreements the european union's already. made preparations for a w.t. or breaks it for the united kingdom and some some yes and there are other issues to be resolved but in the end i still believe that mrs b.m.w. will want to send the cost to the united kingdom tariff free but if we need to charge tariffs on their on their vehicles so be it but they've been very quiet about that haven't they you've expected the titans of german industry to come forward and support your line but they haven't done them have they well it's quite clear that in germany the european union is seen by the hierarchy as more important than anything else more important than german jobs more important than german trade
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with the united kingdom i have to confess i'm a little bit surprised by that but that's enough for germany but. you know all you need to do is listen to what they've said i mean this was from the industry group the german industry group the p.d.i. some seven and a half percent of german exports go to the u.k. big number but ninety two point five percent goes somewhere else so as much as we'd like to uphold good relations with british customers it's extremely important for us not to alienate other european markets a valid concern is not. if that's the way they want to look at it but i would hope that does that surprise you well it doesn't surprise me because germany is. has a very united political culture and is very in favor of the the european union and as the article fifty process has been progressing we've seen the rise of f.t. in germany we've seen the rise of other right wing parties are going to do with their attitude to that makes its ranks to reverse it it makes the european union
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look like a very fragile political project with very tender and vulnerable credibility with with populations in other european countries happily we haven't got a right wing party in this country because our parliamentary system tends to absorb those political and economic shocks and yet i would also popular in the member countries than it's been in the last thirty or let's say let's see what's happened initially for example where they were actually the very anti you government that looks set to just back down over its budget problems with brussels and you think that's going to lead to peace between the italian government and the and brussels and what you're saying it's going to wall i suspect it will lead i suspect the euro zone in the end will break up because it's unsustainable that's a big claim moves a big claim let's look at this prospect that you think is becoming more and more attractive the warnings from the head of the himself robert as a veda said last summer that other countries would look to take advantage of the
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u.k.'s position complicating or preventing agreements on some points. the moment that other countries he said begin to sense an opportunity to increase market share or increase the quota here or there they're going to go for that could be a lot of uncertainty a lot of unpredictability to not give any validity to these warnings well i think we live in. a globalized world where there is intense competition between different member states the w t o and his reflecting that element of uncertainty but given that most of the world conducts most of which trade on w t o terms or agreements concluded on the framework it's not unreasonable that the united kingdom the six largest economy in the world should avail itself of that framework and seek to do agreements with other countries on that basis not the end of october some twenty countries including russia were reported to be looking to squeeze their own commercial advantage rubrics it this after they blocked an attempt by liam fox to
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fast track a w t o deal on the u.k.'s terms. of blocking mechanism is already coming up with a w t o which you seem to think is going to say but saying in the answer all our problems i think to describe the w.t. as the savior of all our problems it does represent a safe haven a safer haven the problem with all agreement that we're being offered at the moment and to that extent it would be preferable i repeat most countries are not in the european union they're not in customs union state trade across customs from tears and they have trading arrangements with other countries which they agree on a bilateral basis or they on draw a joint international trading arrangements and if you listen to the japanese ambassador the other day on b.b.c. news he was talking about yes there inward investors would prefer to stay in the single market in the customs union but he described. going on to w. terms as quote no better than a customs union of course the japanese car plants in this country import quite
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a lot of their just in time supply lines from outside the eden so a bit more actually on that interview he said if it's just straight to the. which japan has been trading on with a number of countries that means that the way they do trade is not the most effective efficient frictionless way of manufacturing that they're used to here in the u.k. and you can't change it overnight so this was a very clear that they're used to they're used to trading in the u.k. they were that i mean i visited the honda plant in swindon recently where they make the five door civic ok they make the engines there sample the vehicles there some fifty percent of the added value of that car is imported from outside the e.u. just in time supply lines crossing crossing customs frontiers crossing w.-t. over until it's not impossible the japanese ambassador went on to say that the procedures will have to be in place and therefore some companies will have to suspend operations not forever he said but for
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a limited time period and this will allow them of course to see what happens well if if there is disruption i don't think there would be disruption we've had very strong assuredly use would you believe into the cause i was just going to have him in full yesterday and i give him a little picture of what he said but what what will happen if we leave on w.t. terms you had very very strong assurances from the dover callup ports for example both of them are saying there will be no disruption to there will be no queuing there made provision for the extra checks that need to be made and they will be very very few extra checks made if any at all apart from the s.p.s. checks that are required under european community law. if you service but there is no other major player that trades with the e.u. on purely top you tear. through they're not americans not the australians not the israelis not the swiss the u.s. has struck agreements all the time with the e.u.
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and a very significant portion of e.u. u.s. trade is actually governed by technical grievances and well those technical or green. if the european union doesn't make the same kind of technical improvements that it's prepared to make with other countries with whom it hasn't got a free trade agreement if you're saying that the e.u. is promising a punishment for the united kingdom to put it in a uniquely disadvantaged place compared to everyone else i would say that's one of the reasons why people voted to leave the review has the e.u. has procedures it's a commonsense arrangement as britain's previous ambassador to the e.u. pointed out it's not commonsense range but it's a legal order well that i think if the e.u. is going to be so doctrinaire as they would damage their own trading relationships with one of their biggest export markets the united kingdom that's one of the reasons people want to leave the european union because it's an inflexible and doctrinaire organization if your w.t. abraxas is such
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a good idea wound vast swathes of british industry recommending it after all the sole aim is to be profitable and keep the economy functioning isn't it but there are. quite significant industrialists arguing for but more and more talk of companies are predicting damage from brick also just parcel. furred these are these are companies that would be perfectly happy for for us to treat her yesterday at all most recent dramatic which was the so-called boardroom bellweather survey by the c.s.a. governance institute found that almost three quarters of footsie three fifty company secretaries were predicting their firms would be damaged by breck's it a sharp rise over the forty two percent who were saying the same thing last summer well i think they would say that wouldn't they why how many of them i remember the c.b.i. and all those top industrialists campaigning to be in the exchange rate mechanism at the end of the one nine hundred eighty s. and into the one nine hundred ninety s. that cost thousands hundreds of thousands of jobs in the bush economy said they got
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one thing wrong they got the next thing wrong they wanted to join the euro they all said we had to join the euro otherwise they would move in. vestment out of the united kingdom they got that wrong then they said if we voted to leave just the vote would be enough to drive the united kingdom into recession so you'd rather pay any attention to that if there is a top program got rather worn out by the doom laden predictions of of fact can't businessmen who are concentrating on keeping everything the same instead of adapting to a democratic decision that's been taken by the british people and is going to talk about the people responsible for getting the economy in this country to run fat cat businessmen so you're so you so you share boris johnson's dismissive attitude to business ways it's screw business our country is not run by big business big business has or can't function without a democratic framework and actually even though we didn't we left the exchange rate mechanism we didn't join the euro we voted to leave the european union since that
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since the vote the united kingdom remains the second largest destination for inward investment of any country in the world and headquarters have been brought to this country by chanel by costa coffee the boeing's going to open a new factory new investments are being made in the motor industry i don't sense that the despair that some major industry objects or. motor industry executives preach is actually reflected in the decisions they're making but this is a big gamble i said earlier that year and last summer your colleague in the european research group response admitted as much when he said we won't know the full economic consequences for a very long time ok only enough that wasn't on your campaign bus was it how big a gamble is it then you tell me who will win the opportunity he said is over the next fifty years says this is a big gamble tell me how big the gamble is in the end but what about the. bank of england governor mervyn king who said students of economics looking back at the
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growth of the british economy will be hard pressed to find. the point at which the united kingdom left the e.u. because of course your hope premise that you are advancing is somehow u.k.'s prosperity is utterly dependent upon one relationship that relationship we have with the european union in fact we've been increasing our trade with the rest of the world despite the fact we're not in a single market relationship and you have the big promise from the usa if i may just finish finish the point and the trade we've done with the european union has been declining as a proportion so since the single market came into existence in one thousand nine hundred three we've grown exports the european union by eighteen percent we've grown exports the rest the world by seventy percent how do we do it we're trading on w. toe terms of the rest of the world we're trading across customs frontiers the fact is the future of the united kingdom does not depend on our future prosperity is not
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depend on membership in the european union the european union is the slow lane of the developed world it's the high unemployment high high regulation high tax low growth part of the developed world the rest of the world is growing much faster than the european union and that's where our future lies and the very premise is in the middle of a slowdown and to. every short term trend we should find which got to find every pessimists you shocked at these trends are going to let you don't know what the global economy is going to be right next year you don't know what you don't know if the european union single currency is going to last for another five years you have no idea what's going to happen in the financial the fact is you don't own this any place and in this global economy no none of us do this is a big gamble well it's a gamble staying in tell me about what the risks are staying in we could finish up bailing out the single currency again and if there's another single currency crisis we could find ourselves dragged into more and more centralized decision making a more and more centralized control telegenic in the political discourse here has
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turned bitter and confrontational as it were lost and you. example of it follows you said the trance and the governor of the bank of england you accuse them of trashing the future of the country as a propaganda exercise this striking thing about your language you don't just disagree with them you have to impute the worst of all possible motives to what they're doing knowing that this kind of harsh accusatory language is going to be picked up on social media and used again and embellish to this is this is their need to talk about it in these terms well i think there is a need to combat the endless negative propaganda that somehow this great country cannot cope unless it's tied by an umbilical cord to its european masters is a different view from now sort of it is negative propaganda. they have been using very very strident and terrifying for cos there are actually scenarios based on
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certain assumptions which exclude for example what the government would be likely to do if we leave the european union without a withdrawal because it makes the debate and toxic to talk in those terms doesn't work i would say that toxify in the debate by putting out these scare stories which have so far all proved to be untrue what's the long term effect of all this on the politics in countries deeply to say that we have so the politicians i'd say we have a very high functioning political culture in this country and i go back to the point we don't have a rising right wing in this country. trolling only hateful language is lost i think big uptick in that i said i think reverend i think the that's happened in other countries that haven't had referendums and not leaving the e.u. in a second tree outside this is how you win in the united states just you were here at the market work april home office reported spikes in hate crimes after certain events such as the e.u. reference why should we just concentrate on one country and identify those problems with one issue leading the european union when these things are happening in other
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countries and cut politics is polarizing the united states it's polarizing other countries within the. you perhaps much more than in this country so why is that due to bret's it is the rise of the right initially and in germany due to breaks it come on for political to tell you about britain ok let's talk about the united kingdom i was running out of time so what will light the fires of extremism in the united kingdom is if the politicians turn round to the british people and say we said you were going to take back control while you're not the politicians are taking back control and not not to keep parliament solver in your country suffering but because we want to leave the power with the european union that is what will lead to the kind of backlash in british politics that we all want to avoid politicking could tell you all conflicts thank you thank you very much.
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thank. you.
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