tv Corona Special Deutsche Welle April 27, 2020 7:15pm-7:31pm CEST
children suffered this face. today many of them don't know who their real parents were. stolen children kidnapping and i'm not suggesting. a full 20. germany continues to ease its lock down the shops reopening step forwards or backwards. but you don't want to be more than 70000000 people in germany having to have the virus that means we have to keep up the identical general protective measures to prevent a 2nd wave. at the very least and steve to last your government snitched not as if we shouldn't become careless especially when it comes to the 1st easing off lockdown measures but i could shouldn't cause a landslide of easing. so is germany opens its doors again it needs to be careful
not to open the floodgates. welcome to october 1000 special here and detail the news i want to get jones of the in the to have you with us and we all want things to get back to normal and we all want to stay healthy but it's a thin line between risk and reason and luckily we have scientists to point us in the right direction i'm joined now by to be escorts he's a professor of public health said epidemiology at the sherry team berlin good to have you with us so based tell me how do we get out of the lockdown without risking a 2nd wave of infections well that's a key question right now many are discussing it obviously i think if we look at the extreme options that we have which is to keep the lockdown lockdown going for another 2 years or to open up everything right away a middle way maybe maybe best we have to be very careful with the things that we have achieved in germany particularly we doing pretty well and the health care
system works luckily not as a fact that we were afraid of so we have to open very carefully and look at several parameters to see how this care for opening up is affecting the new infection rate as well as the consequences of these new infections well let's talk about these parameters because a lot of the measures obviously are based on scientific models and those models again are based on data and that changes constantly how reliable are these models then. well these models are based on data that's correct but they're also based on many assumptions and these assumptions are theoretical and they're do or do not take several aspects into account such as to behavior of the population for example often these models really addressing the viewpoint of the virus so to say but not so much the viewpoint of the population so i hope that we see more models in the future that also account for psychological or social economic aspects of this infections and that together is models will point to or better way how to slowly
and progressively we can open up and find a so-called normal life after 19. i like this the viewpoint of the virus and perhaps what we'll be talking about in just a moment is going exactly in that direction because there's a lot of talk about lowering the reproduction numbers are i'll talk to you about that in a bit but 1st let's take a look at this video. for disease to spread the 1st person who gets infected patients erode has to infect at least one other person and that doesn't happen the disease cannot spread that if patients hero infects more than one person and those people also inflict more than one person then the number of people infected rises exponentially and we have an epidemic on our hands the average number of people or their patients here in fact
is caught the basic reproduction number or are not. it helps scientists estimate how disease will spread and whether measures need to be taken to contain a potential epidemic are not comprises several factors 1st the progression of the disease the longer you are in fact is the longer you can infect other people make sense add to that the number of people with whom you have direct contact and. the likelihood that the disease will be transmitted it. that's different for each pathogen with measles for example it's enough to be in the same room as a person who is infected with hiv it takes direct contact with bodily fluids to get it i think that when you combine the 3 factors you get a rate for are not are not is greater than one in that case the potential for an epidemic but it's important to understand that are not as
a hypothetical average it's calculation relies on the assumption that there is no immunity in the community there's no explanation and no containment measures in place so are not as relevant in the initial phase of a disease outbreak once you have an epidemic scientists stop talking about are not and focus on are are is what is known as the effective for a production number it describes the transmissibility at an advanced stage of an epidemic when a part of the population has become immune the more people are immune the smaller are gets generally people who have to develop immunity to new disease can no longer get it and in many cases they are no longer infections either containment measures such as quarantine can reduce are as well because they reduce the overall number of contacts between people the aim is to get are below one that's when on
average infected people pass the disease to less than one other person only then does the number of infected people go down overall and the disease can be brought under control. professor caught i was quite a lot of information what is the key takeaway that we should understand about the reproduction on bar. well i think the reporter made a very clear a lot of assumptions go into this estimation basic information is very simple c. everett number of susceptible to people that someone with the infection will infect in the future with the disease important it's also how many days before you actually have symptoms can you spread the virus and then this number really tells us something about how many will be affected and if the spread of the disease will be experts potential or not but this is only one measure and i think we have to
really understand that this this measure has to be viewed with other information such as health care systems such as factors that affect the population itself but i think the report made it very clear that these numbers are important for infectious disease these are classical numbers for infectious disease. gee and we use them every day and we learn a lot about these models are very complex in detail if you try to calculate it right you already said that this is a lot of various aspects going into it and there's certainly a mathematical model now from british epidemiology as neil ferguson it aims to to spread the virus over several waves so to speak it's called the hammer and the down strategy and it involves strict measures to reduce infection numbers followed by the easing of a lockdown where the numbers rise again would be a 2nd lockdown the numbers would peak again and again peri obviously and the
advantage is that the health system would not be overburdened and a growing number of people would to develop immunity disadvantage it would take months if not years to beat the virus professor could is there any shorter way. well the shortest way would be if we have an effect a vaccination obviously that we can give to everybody but it will be months before we have this vaccination available models and model for example of theoretical models that certainly work well let's say in the laboratory setting one thing that these models do not so much taken to account is if it is actually practically doable so will the population accept that they can dance which means you can go out you can live a normal life and then eventually if the numbers go up such as the basic reproduction number then we go back into lockdown now have been lifts to lock down
now 3 for weeks everyone knows how difficult this is and people really go insane it's almost impossible to keep this going without any hope that we can release some of these measures and start to have a normal life not even to speak in of the economic and psychological consequences that in addition kick in here so these models need to take into account other aspects to and they need to be practical right to be as clear professor of public health and epidemiology as a chevy to amber lyon thank you so much for your time and our pleasure. and now it's time for your questions on the coronavirus yes our science editor derek williams. shouldn't countries come up with a common strategy for finding cave at 19 and preventing future matter drinks. we already have an organization that's supposed to develop common strategies for preventing pandemics that's the w.h.o.
its primary role is to direct international health within the united nations system you know colbert 19 has really highlighted shortfalls when it comes to an organized international response i don't think anyone at this point what argue that a common global strategy for pandemic situations is more vital today than ever before but whether eventually we get water when cope at 19 has settled is another question i would certainly hope so. is the past and he was asymptomatic for a cave age 19 immune to the virus but there's a big difference between being asymptomatic to a disease and being immune to it and when you're asymptomatic for an infection you have it but for reasons involving your own immune response you don't develop the physical symptoms of that infection what's dangerous is that those asymptomatic
carriers of the disease are likely spreading it to others and that's fueling the pandemic even though they show no signs of the sickness themselves being immune to a disease is different immunity comes after you've been exposed to the bug and recovered from it and your immune system has been trained to to recognize that quickly destroy the pathogen when it meets it again so in the moon people help break the chain of transmission because at least in theory they can't be really infected and turned into virus factories asymptomatic people on the other hand do give the virus to others and that's the key difference. it was ok with 900 special finally though we leave you with a special best a celebration corona style american war veterans and sax has turned 100 in 5 of the party was cancelled due to the pandemic instanter veterans police officers firefighters and
a local cop club drove by his home in los angeles in honor of hearing to social distancing routes of course assam's birthday wish was to receive 105 american flacks one for each year of his life he ended up getting over 400 along with thousands of bestie cards that pat pat happy birthday i want to get jones in berlin thanks for joining. our. conservation that one of. 'd the coral reefs companies are endangered by climate change. the local people are aware of what's happening. and they're all pitching a temper tantrum barry. says reforestation nothing different coming. 3000. next.
to broil do you know battle for land and resources i don't mean a richer chillies bread basket. in the late 19th century european settlers arrived at its shores they drove out and subjugated the indigenous people to this during the conflict remains unresolved and it's escalating. in 45 minutes on d w. stores people for information they provide. the means they want to express g.w. on. facebook and twitter and up to date in touch follow us. it is for me it. is for.
them it is for. a job it is for. the beethoven 2020. 50th anniversary on. welcome to global 3000. divers recently thought they discovered a new reef in the mediterranean but what appeared to be bright colorful corals were in fact mountains of plastic waste swaying in the currents. humans have put their stamp on the planet and it's not always been a pretty one a report from the united nations.