Claim paragraph (from the sourcing sheet): We selected the claim that increases in foreign ownership (FDI and portfolio equity) transactions reduce turnout, and do so more than increases in international trade (Hypothesis 4a); the portion of this hypothesis selected for the SCORE program is that foreign ownership transactions reduce turnout (Statement 2). This reflects the following statement from the paper's abstract: "Using data from twenty-three OECD countries from 1970–2007, the study finds strong support for the ownership-constraint hypothesis in which foreign ownership reduces turnout, both directly and – in strict opposition to the compensation hypothesis – indirectly by reducing government spending (and thus the importance of politics)" (Statement 1). The claim is tested with the one-step Arellano and Bond ‘difference GMM’ estimator, with a lagged dependent variable (LDV), country fixed effects, and cluster-robust standard errors, and detrending the data by including quadratic trend terms specific to each country. The dependent variable in the model selected as evidence for the SCORE program (Model 5, Table 2) is aggregate electoral turnout, and the predictor of interest is a term for Ownership Scale, which reflects the combination of FDI stocks (log), FDI Flows (log), and Portfolio Equity Stock (log) (see Model 5 for specification details) (Statement 3). The Ownership Scale is negative and highly significant (coefficient on Ownership Scale term = -3.519, country-clustered robust SE = 0.938, p < 0.01) (Statement 4).
The focal test in the original paper is: The Ownership Scale is negative and highly significant (coefficient on Ownership Scale term = -3.519, country-clustered robust SE = 0.938, p < 0.01)