let's talk about nevada and arizona. they seem to be going in two different directions just because of clark county. 2-1 democratic area. it looks like nevada is going to probably break for joe biden. but arizona, like you said, that is getting tight. is it safe to say outside of maricopa and tucson, you've got some vote-rich republican areas where donald trump could fair better, and if he comes in under the 59%, 6 07 in maricopa and tucson, he can make that up in the red areas across the state. >> well, rich in republican vote bus not population. that's the one thing. keep in mind, you've got almost 65% of the vote in arizona is just maricopa county. and then you could add another 20% just for pima county where tucson is. that's the balance we're talking about. we've got a lot of land but not a lot of population. the way i kind of look at it, you've got maricopa county. that's the county that exclusively -- that's the balance of power in arizona. i would say if you win maricopa, usually you can win statewide. if you los

the governor of arizona, republican governor doug ducey said in a tweet we're following arizona election law to the letter defending the election process. but also the chairman of the maricopa county board of supervisors, clint hickman, who is republican and who is a trump supporter who was at a rally last week defending this election's process, so what you see outside is very separate from the reality of how the process inf arizona is working. apologies for the length of that firstie part. on the answer to the second question, i think steve set up what we're looking at. tomorrow is a big morning in arizona. as we're watching philadelphia. as we're watching georgia, tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. eastern, 9:00 a.m. local is when we're going tom. get the first batch of votes that's the key indicator that's going to tell us whatin the next 300,000 balls are going to look like. that's because these remaining ballots are almost all ballots that were handll delivered on tuesday, election day. and the democrats, the biden campaign, tell me that they hope those numbers are not as favorable to d

so eyes are on arizona at this moment. >> arizona is a must-win. thank you all for staying up with us tonight and lending us your wisdom. stick around. we'll go through the up to date results, and look at where things stand in the battleground states, next. states, next moments that define you. and drive you. to achieve even more. so, celebrate every one. because success isn't just about where you want to get to. it's also about how you get there the all new 2021 cadillac escalade. never stop arriving. i'm a talking dog. the other issue. oh...i'm scratching like crazy. you've got some allergic itch with skin inflammation. apoquel can work on that itch in as little as 4 hours, whether it's a new or chronic problem. and apoquel's treated over 8 million dogs. nice. and...the talking dog thing? is it bothering you? no...itching like a dog is bothering me. until dogs can speak for themselves, you have to. when allergic itch is a problem, ask for apoquel. apoquel is for the control of itch associated with allergic dermatitis and the control of atopic der

certainly going to be a tight race in arizona. that's one of the reasons that has drown so many people into this parking lot. this area was filled with thousands of people earlier today. just a few people left, after different factions got into shouting matches throughout the k day. but for the most part, the peace was kept. and that's a good thing, because just beyond these walls, the counting of the ballots has been happening. the big drop came in at about 7:00 p.m. local time, the results of 70,000 votes, resulting in the 29,861-vote separation between president trump and joe biden, about 54%. president trump received about 54% of those votes. we're going to see another big ballot drop tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. local time. about 70,000 votes here in maricopa county, and the number that president trump needs is about 60% of those about 70,000 votes. in addition to that, there are 15,000 provisional ballots that still need to be counted, and 5,000 ballots that still need to be signature verified. so those numbers are still go

what's your sense in nevada and arizona? >> i don't speak for our entire decision desk team on these matters, but when we did get the ballot count in from maricopa county, the updated returns, they were not on pace as steve kornacki and others have said for what trump would need in the remaining ballots to be able to overtake biden's margins. of course we're waiting for more results to come in, we're exercising extreme caution, given the stakes. >> let me ask you, can i ask you a really frank question because i think people are -- have this question and i'd like to just say it to you and i know you work the decision desk and i admire you and john tremendously. there is a sense out there that the caution being exhibited by news organizations of making these calls is a product of fear of the president, that were it not donald trump out there looming over everyone, were it not that we expected a tantrum, that news organizations would have made these calls already, and i just want to bring that up to you because it is a thing pe

joe biden still has 270 if he takes arizona and nevada or arizona and something else, gets him to where he needs to be. example. if i give joe biden arizona and north carolina instead of nevada, 279. it's again a better early morning to be joe biden right now. your paths to victory are a lot smooth fer you're joe biden. look at paths. seven paths to victory. seven combinations of states can get joe biden to 270. there are three for donald trump, and one situation in which there would be a tie to go to the house of representatives. >> ali at 2:00 p.m. you did the same thing, 11 ways to get to tie. i told you not to tempt 2020. >> we're not tempting fate. still one, but we know how things go, it's 2020, who knows. >> very on brand for the year 2020. >> we'll talk about that a little bit later. if you've seen "veep," you know what happens. >> we'll ask you to explain that later on. >> i'll try. >> nice to see you both. >> good to see you in person, ali velshi. >> daytime slots, i'm very impressed, katie which how you pronounce amman's name so quickly. >> checking in with you throughout the

from nevada south to arizona, in arizona mr. biden still with the lead, but it's too close to call, 97% of the precincts reporting the difference between the former vice president and president trump almost 30,000 votes. and in georgia, where we are expe expecting more ballots to be counted today, more vote totals to be revealed in just a few hours, right now in georgia still too close to call, but 99% of the vote there has been tallied. the difference in georgia, just 7,248 votes. there will, in fact, be a recount there in georgia because it is so tight, that coming from the secretary of state. according to nbc's count, joe biden's electoral vote count stands at 253, president trump 214. we've got our team fanned out in each of these key states that we're watching, but we start with the latest on the count itself. richard lui is back at the big board, senior political editor mark murray standing by. richard, how many outstanding ballots actually remain? what should we be watching for this morning? >> good morning to you, craig,

arizona a few years ago would have been unthinkable for arizona to have two democratic senators, birthplace of berry go goldwa goldwater is skpmg and something similar with gg. i don't think a lot of other people saw it and now you have georgia even though joe biden's lead is very narrow, georgia looks like it will be in the blue column and has a senate race that has two senate races or two senate run upping coming up that could determine the fate of joe biden's presidency. >> right, that goes to what the co-equal branch is staffed like. michelle, there was a lot of concern what donald trump would do if he was losing with the government. and what i've been reporting legally is the brick wall he's headed to and not something he gets a cookie for or rewarded for but there is no great strategy to use the white house counsel or doj or anything like that and you have people like mitch mcconnell using rhetoric that might play both ways saying things that would seem to lead to donald trump's ultimate potential loss, count the votes and move on. it was mitch mcconnell today. >> a statement on tweet

in arizona and nevada, mr. biden up more than 20,000 votes and in alaska, keep in mind alaska technically still has not been called yet. president trump is winning there by more than 50,000 votes. there are still a lot of votes left to count. we are keeping a close eye on arizona this morning because we expected arizona, a new batch of votes to close in just a few hours this morning. let's go to maricopa county specifically. maricopa county includes phoenix. it's expected to host another vote count at roughly oh, about 6.5 hours from now. 11 a.m. eastern. nbc's morgan chesky is in phoenix on the ground where there were protests again there for a third straight night. first of all, morgan, what are those folks protesting? >> reporter: craig, we had a chance to speak with several of those hundreds of people who gathered in the parking lot outside of the maricopa elections department. when i asked multiple people here, what brought you outside? why are you out here in this parking lot today, some said they felt li

that's 11 in arizona, if he wins it. let's say he doesn't win arizona. let's give arizona to trump to see what happens. he gets to 225. then we're looking at georgia. that would get biden to 275. but if you give georgia to donald trump, it gets donald trump to 241. let's give north carolina to joe biden. that gets him above 270. if you give it to donald trump, he still doesn't get -- so i've just gwynn donald trump everything there. i'm going give him alaska too. still doesn't get him to 270. donald trump has got to get pennsylvania at this point in order to win this thing. that gets him to 279. so that is why all eyes remain on pennsylvania. however, if joe biden does win nevada, and we will get numbers by about noon our time, noon eastern we'll get numbers on that, maybe not all of them, but we'll get more, and he wins arizona. if he keeps his lead in arizona, joe biden comes out with exactly 270 electoral college votes. >> ali velshi, can we zoom in on georgia? there was a note from glen alexander earlier tonight talking about the vote count there. i

there's different ways to vote in arizona. there's a lot of mail vote, in person, and people who mail in their vote, deposit in the last few days. they count in categories in terms of ballots. one of the things we'll find out from maricopa is, what, 75,000 votes that are people that dropped them off on election day. and the hope/bet that the biden folks are making is that that kind of behavioral voter, a drop them off on election day voter, is going to be more democratic than the votes that were mailed in the few days ahead of time because democratic messaging was so intense about don't trust the postal service. did i get that right? is that basically -- >> that's it. if you look at it this way, right, there's two buckets here of the vote that's being tallied since -- in the last couple days in arizona. there's two buckets. all of it you could call the late arriving absentee vote, the late arriving mail vote. the first bucket was the saturday, sunday, and i think some of them monday before the election. but really the weekend

to somebody in arizona in just a moment. we have 94% of the vote in. what we're look for is the votes coming in from maricopa county, around phoenix, 93% of the vote in with joe biden having a 60,000 point lead there, in pima county, tucson joe biden has a 98,000 vote lead and 95% in and around flagstaff, joe biden has a smaller lead there, 17,000. but joe biden right now has a 40,000 point lead in arizona. arizona, nevada, georgia, north carolina, and pennsylvania all too close to call. we're not talking about alaska right now because they still have about half of their votes to count. brian. >> ali velshi at the big board while steve kornacki undergoes court mandated rest and nourishment period. thank you. and i'm told to a national sigh of relief palpable relief nicolle wallace has arrived at the studio. i've never been so happy to see you. >> thank you so much for pulling extra, extra shifts. we should pull back the curtain on what our lives are like. we don't know when this is going to end like all of america. but becau

and, you know, georgia and arizona now, could this decade become the new virginia and colorado? and that completely scrambles the electoral college. >> yeah, i hear you, though, on the work the party has to do. peter baker, it always sounds vaguely patronizing to say about a fellow adult, he or she will get there eventually, they need to get to a certain place m menially, but that is where we are, concerning the president of the united states. what has been your sense, who are the grownups who can either walk in or pick up the phone, we know it won't be the chief of staff, who is home with coronavirus, but who are -- who are the grownups who can talk to donald trump after a period where the -- the anger is let loose? >> yeah, it's a great question. i think, you know, we went back yesterday and watched some of the great concession speeches and you can do a lot to enhance your reputation even in a defeat with a gracious concession speech. look what john mccain did in 2008 or al gore did in 2000. i don't think that's what we're going to see here. i don't know who has the preside pr

now let's head to phoenix, arizona, where morgan chesky is standing by. morgan, we saw the third straight night of protests outside of the election office last night. can you help our audience understand, who are these protesters? what are they protesting? >> reporter: yeah, steph, good morning. these are folks that primarily live here in phoenix. and for the majority of those that i spoke to, they didn't anticipate this was going to be as close a race as it's turning out to be, and they're potentially having to face the fact that arizona could turn blue for the first time in decades. when i asked them individually, what brought you out here to stand for hours in this parking lot, just yards away from where they're counting these votes, they said they want to make sure this is a fair and a legal election. a lot of them echoing the president's talking points on twitter, saying that they feel like this is being stolen away from them. when i posed the thought that, could this potentially be just exactly what happened in 2016, only on the other side, and it b

would it be arizona? keep in mind, too, there is this congressional district in nebraska that democrats are very optimistic about. under this scenario, if biden were to get arizona, then even after not flipping any of these states in the south, that would still be enough for biden. or if trump were to get it in that scenario, trump might get over 270. you get a sense of the channel the president is running against here. the president is running against the odds in the midwest. has to win one of these states. has to sweep all of these states we just went through here then you get out to arizona, he's been trailing in the polling in arizona, he'd have to have late momentum there as well. that is what it would take to get him over 270. >> steve kornacki, when you look at the polling, not just in terms of absolute values, but in terms of the quality of the various polls that are being done, i'm starting to think about this because that iowa poll in 2016 which also said at this time in 2016 that trump was up 7

the biden arizona lead. that said, the biden campaign expresses confidence tonight that they will end up winning in that state. we're watching it all unfold just as you are. we don't have any secret information. you're seeing everything that we see. all of this is live. there are no re-runs in this part of our coverage. let's head over to msnbc's steve kornacki. steve, i feel like even though this is really five states yet to be called and one, north carolina, we're not talking about much because they haven't been producing new vote totals and neither campaign seems to be as focused on north carolina so it is really four states. even with only four states on the board i do feel like the potential yalties of what these results might mean toward who is going to be the next president sometimes get conflated in my mind. maybe i've been on the air too many hours. >> it's true. all this talk about arizona and, you know, trump could overtake biden there plaus baibly and we get an update tomorrow morning. in georgia

the biggest single out standing source of votes in arizona. the biggest county in arizona. and sort of holds the key to the kingdom with the update tonight. donald trump is playing catch up statewide against joe biden. he's trying to make up a gap of 36,800 votes. this gets technical. we'll give you the cliff note version. it's this. the counties across arizona have for the last several days been working through one final particular group of ballots. this is how it goes in arizona. a group of ballots they process before election day. then a group processing on election night. and a group they get to in the days after the election. that's where we are. the third and final group. when we began the counting of this group, donald trump needed to be winning 59% of all of them. if he would win 59% of the votes in this third and final group, that would erase all of joe biden's statewide lead in arizona. so far, again we're on the third day of counting of the third group. so far, trump has succeeded in narrowing the lead. it was in the 90,000 when we began. now it's down to 36,000.

he is also ahead in nevada and arizona. in a minute, the latest reporting from inside the trump west wing on what the president is saying, his mind-set, and what his aides are saying to him. he's continuing to try to flood the zone with legal challenges. in the background for all of this, another grim record today that we are forced to report. 122,365 new cases of coronavirus in our country in a single day. as this illness continues to gallop uncontrolled across our country. let's not forget that for a moment. we want to start off by getting the very latest on the numbers, especially for members of our audience just dialing into the primetime coverage tonight. that takes us, of course, to our friend, steve kornacki at the big board. steve, where do we stand right now? >> brian, let's start in pennsylvania. just a couple minutes ago we got another update. we are just getting incremental reports from various counties across the state as they continue to count out and report out the mail-in ballot votes. so we got one from all

vaughn hilliard is in scotssdale, arizona. you've been great on the details of the various political inclinations and slices of the various voter groups that mailed in or walked in on their vote at various times which is essentially what the analysis comes down to at this point. what's the latest at least on what's out there and when were you going to get reports? >> yeah, good evening, chris. okay, one of those buckets i think the most exciting bucket that we have had exist yet in this election here in arizona is the bucket that's going to be released tomorrow morning here in maricopa county. it's going to be at 75,000 voters. and what makes this bucket different is that these votes are going to be including mail ballots that were not mailed, but those that were hand-delivered to the polling locations here in maricopa county. there's about 175,000 of them in all. we're only going to a get a fraction of them, but those ballots are going to be able an indicator what we should expect next from that 150,000. and why is this impor

arizona, too early to call. 86% of the vote in so far in arizona. and those numbers are changing. joe biden holding onto a lead. donald trump hoping to overtake him. georgia, too close to call. there is a 23,000-vote difference. and it's the opposite of arizona right now. joe biden is building momentum with the votes, and he is hoping to overtake donald trump. there is a lot going. >> i was going to say, there's a lot going on, and i'm curious to get your thoughts on this quickly, katy. i am surprised by how surprised everyone is that this is actually going as we planned, which, when i say "as we planned," meaning like we had been in the run-up to this saying it's not going to be an election night, it's going to be an election season, expect results two, three days, maybe weeks afterwards. we had been warned that the president was going to try and preemptively declare himself the winner. we were expecting that there was definitely going to be a certain degree of tension that we're seeing now manifest itself with protests outside various locations, both in michigan and in arizona.

katie hobbs, the secretary of state in the great state of arizona. let's go nearby to las vegas in nevada. our correspondent jo ling kent is standing by there. and jo, same circumstance, folks in nevada are working hard to count up all the votes as increased public attention focuses in on their work. >> reporter: yeah, there's a lot of focus right now on the remaining 54,000 remaining mail-in ballots and the 64,000 provisional ballots that they say at the clark county registrar they're only going to count after they finish the mail-ins which would only be as soon as sunday. there's a lot of question marks how those are going to break. as we've said so many different times these mail-in ballots tend to break for the democrats historically, but we'll have to wait and see on that front. meanwhile a cam bane -- excuse me, a lawsuit brought by an individual voter, jill stoky out here that was seeking injunkative relief, claiming there's improper voting, that lawsuit has been ruled now that injunction has been denied. and so it's a loss on the legal front

and then in arizona, biden leads by nearly 30,000 votes. i want to bring in msnbc's richard l. , lui at the big board. >> to start where we're at 7:00 a.m. on a saturday, going into the fifth day, we have roughly, in terms of outstanding votes, that are yet to be counted, about 12.2 million, and that's a large number, about 8%, but many of them are in the states that we've already projected at nbc news. just look at the four states that you just mentioned that we're really keeping an eye on. nevada, arizona, georgia, and pennsylvania, and we're really only looking at about 500,000 votes. much smaller number here. but those states are very key, very close as well. and the reason why i want to drill down now, one of those is nevada, because for biden, three of his paths to victory, he has nine, go through nevada, for donald trump, two of his paths go through nevada, as well. so let's dig in really quickly here, and in terms of what we'll be watching here today, the we heard from the secretary of state's office, stephanie, last night, we know

we're awaiting new votes we expect to be released in arizona any minute. they could bring joe biden one step closer to officially becoming president-elect joe biden. joe biden within striking distance of 270 electoral votes. all eyes are on the handful of battleground states that could get him all the way there officially. starting with arizona, again, we're expecting that new vote count any minute. a short time ago we got new numbers out of nevada, where joe biden's lead has grown to more than 22,000 votes. biden's lead is also continuing to grow in pennsylvania. now, pennsylvania alone being called would put joe biden over the finish line. then there's georgia, where joe biden's razor-thin lead has doubled throughout the day to more than 4,000 votes there. officials there have said that there will be a recount. and at some point tonight we're expecting for vice president biden to speak live. we'll be keeping an eye out for that. we'll go to it, of course, as soon as it gets under way. let's go straight now to that arizona vote and steve kornacki back at

we have two outstanding states, north carolina and arizona. so talk us through when we expect to get a decision on both of those states and honestly, what's taking so long. >> some of the theme attics behind it. let's go into georgia. let's drill down into the spaces that we're looking at. really as has been said by accura-- by catie, it's all counted. a difference of 10,000. yesterday at this time it was a difference of 7,000, the day before, 4,000. there's not a lot left here. the only way they can avoid in this too close to call environment, the only way they can avoid a recount is if this number hits 25,000, roughly, more or less. and then that recount in georgia will not happen. so clearly the numbers that we're looking at are not large and spaced as you see in fulton, less than 500. she was talking about gwinnett, less than 500 there, as well. we look at the major population areas, less than 500. just about everything is in ---er with headed toward the recount the way it looks now has been said by catie. the other states not called yet b

let's go to arizona. i'd love to get your input on what you see in arizona. that's a rudy giuliani arizona reported about 85% of their vote. they seem to be picking up 1% a day. they may be done at some point this weekend. but i've hearne to win arizona they'd have to win 58, 5 the% of the vote. he has failed to do that over the last few days and that number is bumping up to 61%. tell us what you're seeing even as donald trump whittles down the difference between he and joe biden to just below 30,000. the numbers right now don't seem to be adding up for him as far as what needs to bring home, to win that state. drive into the details, if you will. >> reporter: yeah, joe. every batch that is coming in where trum specific not able to meet what he needs coming in. and his threshold for what he needs keeps rying it gets gloomier for the president in terse of the type of ballot that might be favorable to him. so, look, there's no question right now that you'd rather be joe biden with that lead in arizona. >> yeah. understatement but thank you very much, david wass

>> well, now, we're just waiting for arizona. so i would expect the biden lead holds up but i wouldn't be surprised if the margin gets down to 15 or 20,000. my -- if you look historically, a race, maybe 100, 500, or even a thousand votes, the recount may change the outcome. but we generally don't see that. and i make this point. if you look at 2016, donald trump won pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin, between the three. you know, joe biden's margins will be triple that. this is not a close race. in fact, you know, 2008, barack obama won 305 electoral votes with biden as his running mate. i mean, biden's going to be close to that so we need to see what happens. obviously, i think much more important now that biden's been declared the winner is those two runoffs in january. >> as a party guy, are you fearful of the work that lays ahead of the democratic party? i am looking, chiefly, at the results of a whole lot of races across the country, splisespeci in the house. >> listen. it wasn't the election, maybe, of our dreams with a

number two, do you have any questions for arizona secretary of state? i have guests stacked up like jets over laguardia, she's two from now, holding for us. >> basic question, when do they anticipate the process being complete in arizona. that's the key question. i know the pennsylvania question you asked, how raheem ellis has been talking about this. when they give us the totals of unreported ballots in pennsylvania, there's thing that ballots that arrived after election day, they're setting them aside, part of the complicated, potential legal maneuvering for post election legal fights. but "x" number of ballots uncounted, asking if they're including the late arriving ballots in there. we don't have clarity in that, it's important question and variable in pennsylvania. >> okay. steve, thank you. indeed we can bring in katie hobbes, the secretary of state for state of arizona, patiently waiting for us. madam secretary, i thought steve was going to hit us with a complex technical question for you, no, nuh-uh, he wants to know same thing all of us want to

the trump campaign filed a new election lawsuit in arizona. that state is still too close to call with president-elect joe biden leading president trump by less than 1% point. we have more live from phoenix, morgan, let's talk through some of this. as all of this is happening and developing, we are actually still waiting on a call from arizona, one, and then also the filing of the latest lawsuit. talk us through it. >> reporter: yeah, good morning. in this lawsuit is allegedly claiming that a substantial enough number of votes were miscast on actual election day. it's stemming from what the lawsuit's claiming that was filed by the national republican committee and president trump's election team that poll workers here at the maricopa county elections department, polling locations, misinformed voters on how to operate some of these voting machines. specifically, whenever they were at one of the machines about to cast their vote, they would receive a notification that was saying that there had been an overvote. they were then instructed or acted

>> arizona is definitely changing. you know, mark has had an incredible life story and emotional story with his wife, gabby giffords, kind of rising star. she has been in arizona politics with the kind of leadership she's shown on so many issues. our campaign, we worked really hard to speak to voter's concerns and what they're concerned about. we got a lot of double talk and deception about protecting people with pre-existing conditions and, you know, just a lot of like political finger pointing. this is a serious year. people are really going through it and really struggling. they're worried about their jobs. they're worried about their health care. they're worried about the pandemic. i think mark met the moment. >> christi, let's talk a little bit about pennsylvania and what has been the -- excuse me, been the motivating factor for the turnout. because as we've talked through our reporter there on the ground, she said she was curious to know whether the african-american vote turned out in the numbers that we had seen

gadi schwartz where the counting is going on in arizona. there is never has been a better time to bring in the author and presidential historian michael beschloss. let's just take a second. that was a moment in time from gadi schwartz as he put it the birth of a conspiracy theory. and our society right now, you've seen the vote breakdown, we are primed for this. this is the perfect storm, the collision of social media, electronics, overseas intervention, our foreign adversaries love fomenting this and seeing this cut loose in our society. so what era, exactly, are we on the cusp of? >> we're on the cusp i hope of an era that is like most of american history and that is as you well know, brian, you read history so fervently, throughout american history at various times there have been conspiracy theories that have been floated to explain all sorts of changes that some people don't like. the arrival of immigrants before the civil war, conspiracy by certain groups to get us into world war ii, you could do it all the way through the time of joe

arizona, georgia, and north carolina. >> alaska i believe. >> what? >> alaska as well. >> alaska as well. sorry. where does the vote count -- sorry, it's been a long day for everybody. long week i should say. where does the vote count stand right now in those outstanding states? >> you'd have to say the single most likely outcome at the end of this is going to be 306 electoral votes for biden which is incidentally the same number of electoral votes trump carried in 2016. when you look at the numbers the closest state is at the moment actually arizona. now, numerically georgia is closer right now at a 9,000 vote margin. but what we know is the up to 8,900 overseas military ballots that are coming in aren't likely to change that outcome, and recounts typically don't change outcomes, you know, of that magnitude. those overseas and military ballots if anything might pad biden's lead buzz there are people like aid workers. there are people that work for ngos abroad, even people who have affiliations with cnn and cdc and that might pad biden's vote total a

then arizona or nevada. everything here, plus alaska, then either arizona or nevada. now, if georgia goes blue in this scheme, biden's up to 269, right? >> yeah. >> the worst biden could do at that point is an electoral college tie. and biden, in this scenario, you know, with the win in pennsylvania, he's the president-elect, you know. with a win in arizona, he's the president-elect. with a win in nevada, he's the president-elect. so, if biden got georgia, any combination -- a big combination of other states here could put him over the top. but trump has to have georgia as part of his mix here. >> and an electoral tie, 269-269, goes to the house of representatives, and that favors republicans -- >> what a scenario that would be. >> and it's likely that donald trump would keep his seat -- >> yeah. >> -- if he goes that route. i mean, obviously, he can't -- >> it's based on delegations. >> it's based on delegations, not the number of representatives that are in congress. go watch the episode of "veep." it explains it all. and it's very entertaining. steve kornacki, we a

but there is an element to what you're saying of what happened to fox with arizona. they called arizona a couple of days ago and they heard from the white house and heard from republicans who breathed fire, said fox news had betrayed them, some of fox news own anchors were going after fox saying you shouldn't have called arizona yet. so you're right, he may be tentative there. but to your point, we know that the vote that is out there, let's just focus on pennsylvania, because if he wins pennsylvania, joe biden, it is over. we know the vote out there is coming predominantly from philadelphia and we know from the vote so far joe biden is running away with that vote. so if that is the vote still out there, joe biden's lead is only going to grow from here. but you could see the spread right there. 49.6 to 49.1 now clearing the way outside of triggering a recounts and i suspect, joe, you may get your wish sometime today as more of this vote comes in. you could see joe biden winning philadelphia with nearly 81% of the vote with more vote to come. >> well, we've all grown

also later that night we expect to get a lot of the vote from arizona as well. again the president is playing defense. if trump is able to carry all of those states to stay in contention for 270, the action would shift to pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin, those traditionally blue states that trump flipped by the skin of his teeth in 2016. mail-in ballots could take a while in pennsylvania, maybe some time to get a result in michigan and wisconsin. we'll talk to the secretary of state in michigan shortly. the president would need to survive all these states we just mentioned and pick off at least one here. that's where it could take a while. that is an early look at this. again, there's all sorts of different permutations here. we'll get to a bunch of them this hour and next couple of days. this weekend, as we mentioned, both campaigns blitzing all of these key battlegrounds. nbc reporters are spread out across the country. nbc political reporter ali vitale is in philadelphia following the biden campaign. nbc senior white house reporter petty pooes is followi

and now we're ahead but we're winning in arizona, winning in nevada. in fact, our lead just doubled in nevada. we're on track to over 300 electoral votes, electoral college votes. look at the national numbers. we're going to win this race with a clear majority of the nation behind us. we've gotten over 74 million votes. let me repeat that 74 million votes. that's more than any presidential ticket has ever gotten in the history of the united states of america. and our vote total is still growing. we're beating donald trump by over 4 million votes. and that's a margin still growing as well. >> leading off our discussion nbc's mike nenoly covering the biden campaign as he has for two years now. mike, with joe biden's summary with where the election stands at this hour we're actually able to give steve kornacki a rest. he wanted to tell the country exactly where this is. and i noticed in the way he talked about it tonight it was much more definitive that joe biden has no doubt no question, there's no hesitation about joe biden is going to be the next presi

when you look at the numbers the closest state is at the moment actually arizona. now, numerically georgia is closer right now at a 9,000 vote margin. but what we know is the up to 8,900 overseas military ballots that are coming in aren't likely to change that outcome, and recounts typically don't change outcomes, you know, of that magnitude. those overseas and military ballots if anything might pad biden's lead buzz there are people like aid workers. there are people that work for ngos abroad, even people who have affiliations with cnn and cdc and that might pad biden's vote total a bit. whereas in arizona the outstanding ballots and there are up to 100,000 of them include a number of mail-in ballots in maricopa county that still remain to be counted and those are been trending towards trump although not quite at the rate he would need to entirely close the gap, and the biden campaign is really hoping for its electoral votes in arizona to win a higher share of the provisional ballots that remain outstanding particularly in pima county which is more democratic than

when it comes to this stuff, i do want to say, i give credit to maricopa county, arizona, where we're get an update this morning, a potentially critical one. they give you a schedule, and, man, do they stick to that schedule. 9:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. every time. and on the date at 9:00 p.m., you check the website and new votes come in. they report these big batches out. they tell you when it's coming and it comes. >> so, steve, for those that are just tuning in right now or may not have seen your summary again, let's go through that again. i know when i'm watching you or just tuning in, a lot of people want to know what's going on and why this race has not been called yet. let's go through allegheny. let's go through philadelphia. let's talk about the ballots, the provisional ballots, and we'll go county by county and talk about what people are going to be seeing today and why the remaining votes lean so heavily toward ben bernanke. >> right now, 28,833 votes. start in allegheny. what we know in allegheny third quarter say there are 20,000 mail-in ballots they're working on right

bill 1070 in arizona. those things activated and galvanized a whole generation of spanish-speaking voters for years. by the time it came to election time, people were active. i think the same thing applies to the african-american community in 2008, 2012 and 2016, the more hispanic americans we have in media who are intimately familiar with these communities we don't get a surprise. when i've been able to make assessments about how black voters were behaving in georgia, hey, you had lots of african-americans down there reporting, this is what i'm hearing, these are certain thing i may hear that different reporters don't. i think if we had large analysts of consultants who are members of these communities, we might get a better assessment and wouldn't get as surprised as we do on election nights. again, i think you can draw completely different stories from what happened in texas, what happened in arizona and what happened in florida. but if we had experts in these areas we could probably know how to draw a

it will shift certainly to arizona. arizona with 11 electoral votes. and then we're getting votes in in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. we're getting them very slowly, very scattered, but, again, what donald trump will need to do, pennsylvania must-win in that situation, likely arizona would be must-win for him in that situation. we'll keep an eye on nevada as well, but the battleground if trump is able to go 5 for 5 if these states -- that is a big if right now, but if he is able to do that, the battleground will shift. we'll be talking arizona, wisconsin, michigan, and really pennsylvania, the second congressional district in nebraska, which i'm going to try to get a readout on in a minute here. >> steve, before you go to the second congressional district in nebraska, can we go to wisconsin and see what we've got in terms of wisconsin vote so far? >> you got it. let's take a look to live election -- there's ohio -- let's make our way up to wisconsin. here we go. about 30% of the vote is in in wisconsin right now. let's see if we got more in brown

so far in arizona, more than 2.4 million people have already voted. in texas it's more than 9.6 million, and in georgia more than 3.9 million folks have cast their ballots. we want to check in with our reporters on the ground in those three key states. gadi schwartz is in glendale, arizona, morgan chess ski is in el paso, texas. we start with nbc's priscilla thompson in norcross, georgia. what's the scene there? >> reporter: we're tracking issues in spalding county about an hour away from here where when polls opened the computers went down. they weren't working. the county had to scramble to get paper ballots to their more than 20 polling locations across the county. we're monitoring that. the good news is here on the ground in gwinnett county, we haven't seen widespread technical issues and haven't seen long lines. this morning folks did begin lining up at 5:00 a.m. by the time polls opened, there were three dozen people in line at the first polling location i was at. those folks moved through quickly. they were concerned that the lines would be lon

arizona and georgia. we've talked about those as states that democrats have tried to make end roads in for years. democrats now thinking that maybe now is the moment that they're ripe to be flipped. frankly, this is also a little bit of a mix and match strategy. because you can kind of pair all of these different routes together and joe biden can still cobble together an electoral college victory. all of this lends to a feeling of cautious optimism among the sources that i and my colleagues are talking to inside the campaign. because as they're look agent the data, they're thinking about this in terms of math. it's numbers at this point. but also in putting out this strategy of the multiple paths to win, that's their way of trying to preempt the president if he says he wants to declare an early victory, they're trying to show that's probably not possible. they've gone so far as to say they don't see a scenario in which donald trump is deemed a wictor an election night. because they're look agent states ac

there is the chance that tonight not only could arizona pick a democrat for the white house, but also hand its second u.s.

vaughn, you're in arizona. the democrats had been putting a lot of effort and resources into arizona thinking that is a state they can turn blue. but trump campaign sources say it's also -- vaughn, there you are -- it's also a state they now believe they have closed the gap on. they're confident about arizona. what are the campaigns telling you? >> reporter: i'm talking to both sides here, both political parties, top officials here. what you're looking at right now is purely a look at the data. so far today, in-person voting, right now republicans hold about a 2.5 to 1 advantage over democrats, which is exactly what republicans in the trump campaign needed in the state. because democrats far outpaced republicans when it came to early votes before today. you are looking at margins in which the republicans were relying to remain competitive, turning people out to vote. this is one of the quieter voting centers. anybody can go to any center. i was just down the road just this hour over in old town scottsdale, katy

georgia over arizona today but that's interesting that you pick arizona one and georgia two. a lot of republicans seem to be more confident of arizona these days than georgia. i don't know what that says about georgia. >> right. well, something special has happened in turnout in georgia and texas. will it be enough? we'll see. but the texas story in particular, which, you know, that really has not been a core battleground state. it's going to end up as one. that's beto o'rourke and grassroots organizers getting at it and staying with it after '18. you and i will spend time after the election, if those states become competitive more often than not going forward, it really changes american politics. >> i was just going to say, in fact, instead of sitting here and wanting to do one more second on north carolina and florida, i want to talk about that. regardless of what happens tonight, there's going to be a lot of two and three-point races in the sunbelt. the midwest is -- you and i have spent our first 50 years of our life with the midwest deciding american politics. does that

as would arizona. and they're still keeping an eye on arizona. but we shouldn't pull or viewers into dramas that aren't necessary for joe biden to get to 270. that was my only point. for joe biden to get to 270, the strategic plan, the travel schedule, the surrogate schedule, the advertising dollars, the phone banking, the g geo-tv programming was always designed for i guess the path of least resistance and that was wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. incredibly important to joe biden and kamala harris. they still feel good about it. they're also keeping an eye on arizona. they're keeping an eye on ohio. i think not so much you, but we have a tendency sometimes because of the timing of states closing to take our viewers on these journeys that aren't central to joe biden's path to 270. that was my only point. no offense meant to anyone in north carolina. >> well, the senators are very excited about both arizona and north carolina. for obvious reasons. those are two of the four senate seats they must pick up. >> yeah, i mean, the senate race -- a

what are you seeing in arizona? >> reporter: unlike you, we may know the results here in arizona tonight. by night's end, we may know more than 90% of the votes cast here in the state of arizona. if donald trump or joe biden have is more than a 1-point lead, this may be a race that those here in the state could be eager to call. let me explain to you what our data is showing right now. just about five hours left for voters to cast their ballots. go back to 2016 here. the number of republicans that voted over democrats was 7%. there were 7% more republicans than democrats. that was 2016. right now here in the state of arizona, that number is just 2%. now republicans that i talked to in the state say hold on a second. we expect a surge of turnout in particularly the rural parts of the state. in their questions here among in-person voters, right now, we're seeing by nearly a 3 to 1 margin republicans over democrats cast iing their ballo here at that poll. so when you look at that what is right now a 5% margin, republic

and they said now for the first time after kyrsten sinema's 2018 win here in the state of arizona, that's when they said they realized in talking with their family and their friends and others in the predominantly communities of color here in the greater phoenix area, that they could have national consequences and they said that they hoped that this race not only mark kelly's senate race but also electing joe biden could be evidence of the role that they can play in elections going forward here. >> all right. vaughn hilliard, stay with us for a moment. i do want to cross over to steve. steve, we've been talking about georgia throughout the evening because all eyes are now on that metro atlanta area. the nine counties that surround. >> r georgia's capital. that's where we're expecting more nukz to come in. i understand you have some more data for us. >> we just can get some more in in fulton county which is where atlanta is. we just got a big batch of votes in here. again, joe biden winning this county overwhelmingly. you see about 80% now. and in fulton county we think not sure exactly ho