justifies the beltway interest and so on and so on. this year there's a problem. the front runner, mitt romney is not trying to win it, which means him losing the straw poll wouldn't mean anything because he didn't try to win it, and him winning the straw poll wouldn't mean anything either. also, who can beat mitt romney, who has any chance of being the nominee other than him, well, texas governor rick perry just screwed up iowa coverage for this weekend too. nationally, he is polling second to mitt romney in some polls. that was true last month in polling from gallup and is true this month from mcclathy. some hope they could win iowa and some coverage thereof. rick perry has chosen the day of the straw poll as the day he'll start his unofficial campaign with speeches and appearances that day in south carolina and in new hampshire and another round of i'm running for president events in sunday, the following day, in iowa. it has seemed that rick perry was going to get into the race for awhile now, why is he finally doing it? part might

democratic base, not the republican base that gets covered nine ways to sunday by the beltway, but the democratic base. oh, yes, there is one. the democratic base is the reason these recall elections are happening at all, a reminder both to the beltway press and beltway democrats that the democratic party does have a base and it isn't just a liability, it can be a tremendous asset if they could pay some freaking attention to them every once in awhile. but the third reason i think these recall elections today in wisconsin, where polls have just closed, the third reason these have national implications is because the pendulum that swung for four years, '06 elections through the '08 elections and swung back in 2010, that pendulum swing determines whether or not barack obama gets a second term, determines washington, makeup of supreme court, determines everything else about politics and the united states. tonight's results will be among the first clear empirical signs of whether the pendulum is still swinging that same republican direction as last november or it is turning around and comin

you are going to stop the beltway mentality. you are going to washington to make washington listen to the people on the ground. the grass roots. and then once they send you to washington, you don't even want to come back and talk to the people. how are you speaking for people you won't speak to? how are you any different than the beltway people you told them that they were going to challenge? it seems to me, you like to talk to each other in washington and not talk to the people whose anger and rage you exploited to send you to washington. you like town hall meetings, when it was anti-washington. now they send you to washington, you're anti-town hall meeting. they call that hypocritical where i come from. joining me now, alex wagner, reporter for the huffington post and mooes analyst. alex, are members of the right purposefully ignoring constituents in your opinion? >> you have the videotape to prove it, right? look at where we are at as a country. if you look at the latest gallup polls, congressional approval is at 13%. disappr

a lot of labor wars are right here inside the beltway. i like many people in this room, i'm sure, worked in 2008 on the ground in the election campaign where everybody came together. you know, to elect barack obama. and it didn't seem like there were those divisions, and so maybe you could just comment a little bit about how much of this is kind of slowing from an inside the beltway jockeying for, you know, what is viewed as a shrinking pie in terms of members. you know, who gets what's members. and i think that really is at the heart of this. is that, you know, these unions are struggling and they are looking for, you know, they are struggling with money, they are struggling with membership, and they are looking for easy guess and they are looking for, you know, how can we, you know, maintain the level of service and power that we have. and so i think a lot of it flows like from inside the beltway out. maybe you can just comment on that aspect of the civil wars and labor. >> well, one the things i do talk about in the book, in the carpet

american people, and the choice will be very stark and will be very clear. >> don't tell the beltway, because frankly there's no reason yet to interrupt the michele bachmann coverage, but president obama is running for reelection and we now know how he's going to run for reelection. does this show he has taken to heart some of the constructive criticism that's been levied against him from his most avid supporters? joining us now, ed schultz, host of "the ed show," thanks for making the time tonight, i know it's not an easy thing to do. >> thanks, rachel, good to be here tonight. >> are you seeing a shift from the president on this bus tour, or do you think this is a continuation of what he's been say something. >> no, i think the president knows that his base is very frustrated and the worst thing the base could do with the republicans propping up and running for nomination, the worst the base could do is freeze up. they are not totally happy with the way he has negotiated, as you mentioned in the set-up piece about how he's gone back and forth with the congress. congress is at a 13%

the beltway. before joining buckeye he worked as a strategic consultant for international corporations to a elected officials and adjunct professor who taught a course on varied response to the terrorist threat among american allies. with that i will turn it over to jim first and then matched. please join me welcoming james carafano. >> thank you for posting this and thank you for coming. i want to take a few minutes to talk about how we got there from here. is important to understand. i am proud of heritage. heritage was one of the first major think tanks in the united states to take homeland security seriously. the first major report on dealing with terrorism and homeland security after 9/11 came out of the heritage foundation. a lot of institutions, everybody did homeland security after 9/11. many organizations -- i am proud of the resources and staff dedicated to be serious on this issue. we published more on homeland security issues and research than any other think tank in the world and we h

in the beltway that a crisis can be avoided as reported i am makes the case the damage has already been done beyond u.s. borders. and help us avoid default debt ceiling nation default and this crisis time's running out the entire world is watching it's been a public spectacle filled with bickering grandstanding and lack of compromise i divisive debate over raising the u.s. debt ceiling creative and unprecedented climate of uncertainty over america's so-called sound economy the damage being done no matter what happens now everybody really thinks the united states isn't so secure it isn't so safe even if the craziness subsides it seems to have got real close and who knows whether the next month next year this won't blow up again since the underlying causes economic problems are getting worse in this country for point five trillion dollars of america's borrowing is owed by foreign countries experts say washington's mismanagement may cause investors to abandon the devalued dollar and end their partnership with america it's like being married to someone to serve a year for so many years they

that's right more of that inside the beltway crap that nobody outside the beltway in the new york d.c. media bubble cares about donald trump says no my god i mean seriously most people are probably asking why does anyone care that this one man who's not of the like that official is more of you could describe as a media whore. what do you see they have to say about that he has bad hair why do they care and then of course one politician said something crazy so the mainstream media in turn went crazy over it you have been quoted coming out of your caucus as calling this agreement a sugar coated satan sandwich was that indeed your quote is that how you feel about this deal if i were a republican i would be doing in the streets i don't have any idea what the republicans wanted that they didn't get on the surface it looks like the same sandwich. seriously satan sandwich who cares i'll tell you what they could be talking about instead of sandwiches or what donald trump had to say how about the way that this deal is actually going to change america the way it will help get our economy out of

i think there was widespread understanding here inside the beltway in the last 24, 48 hours, that the spectacle that was put on here was just completely intolerable to most of the american people, and especially -- >> howard, hold on. there is congresswoman giffords in the short hair and glasses. they are cheering. >> mr. chairman, i yield to the gentleman from michigan. >> mr. speaker, i would like to take this opportunity to express my personal gratitude. >> he is retiring the end of the term. we have to say, ken, a wonderful tribute to american medicine and resilience to see the woman that was shot in the head so recently, to come back on the floor, it is a statement about our national character in this one personal way. this is certainly a distinction from what we have been watching, the pettiness of the debate that's gone on for weeks now. >> it really is the one redeeming moment at the end of this nasty partisan and high profile dispute that in some ways is a microcosm for the way congress works, not the gabrielle giffords coming back, but the unprecedented -- rather than the fa

everyone agrees on it, and the problem is the fury inside the beltway. it's at such a high level, it's almost impossible to sit down and discuss something like the need for a highway bill. we just laid off, unfortunately, furloughed over 4,000 employees because there's an attempt to kill unions in the aviation zre. it's difficult for us to have any kind of sustained effort to reduce the high level, the intolerably high level of unemployment, because washington has turned into a mean-spirited town, and i don't think it's going to be getting us going in the right direction. when you talk about reducing spending, you're also talking about eliminating jobs. real human beings, real americans will lose jobs. the congressional black caucus, for example, we're going on a six city tour beginning next monday to -- and with major corporations, over 100 major corporations, we're going to guarantee over 10,000 jobs. that's a drop in the bucket. >> right. >> the government has a role. >> ironically, though, people from the house left for a month-long vacation today, t

the beltway loves to say both sides deserve the blame, this is the platonic form of not both sides fault. i'm sorry if this sounds partisan to point it out but this is not both sides with the same error. this was republicans alone causing this problem by saying they would not raise the debt ceiling. and it is liberals and democrats who have been saying all along that this take by the republicans was dangerous. that's why it's frankly weird to be a liberal pundit reading the s&p press release about republicans behaving dangerously in washington, the reason s&p downgraded the u.s. credit score was essentially the list of liberal and democratic talking points against the republican congress taking the debt ceiling hostage. this sounds like it's straight off an msnbc teleprompter. "the political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as america's governance and policy making becoming less stable and effective. the statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. that is what s&p said. that's their press r

raking through the beltway, shep. phil keating at the national hurricane center in south florida. phil, it's good to see you. i'm getting updates from my computer over here regarding situations in virginia. the storm is moving north, obviously. and things are becoming more treacherous. some pour outtanks northmor than 42,000 people in southeastern virginia are now without power. the resort strip essentially abandoned as it gets strong winds and rain all the way up virginia beach. also getting word of a sailboat in distress. virginia's coast and getting wind and rain from the outer bands of hurricane katrina. there is a 30-foot sailboat that's in trouble off ninth view street in ocean view, virginia coast guard is going out there to help them. sailboat rescuing' news service wavy. let's listen here. >> that's kind of strange for being a hurricane. and went down investigated a little further and found out that there are, i think, two people on the boat and it's anchored they are trying to get in and they lost their motor. i know you're worried about making your savis last and having

in the beltway, that short chain of events in the beltway makes no sense. it does not compute. because conservatives in washington have succeed in changing the whole political conversation about the economy away from jobs and on to cutting things instead. the labor union seiu was out with a six-state ad buy to turn that conversation around. >> what what's it going to take? do we have to spell it out? can't republicans get the message. they protect tax breaks for millionaires, and tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. republicans in congress have shown who they stand up for, voting to take care of the wealthy, not the middle class. it's time to bring jobs to america. seiu cope is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> the labor unions want job creation. wall street wants job creation. which means if democrats decide to focus on job creation, they will have allies both on wall street and in labor. that is the sort of thing even democrats recognize as add good political deal. who's trying to get democrats to take that deal joins us next. >>> if you're one

it is about the beltway reporters. >> i agree with that. a lott of the feed back that i got this country is falling apart especially after the week we h. it was not on the debt and economy and there was infighting. no real clearr winner and cudios to gingrich but he fought with the moderator. you saw the little fight between pawlenty and bachmann and paul and sanatorium. hats off. they had wonderful thing to say about bret . other networks say the questions were tough and well researched. >> we have to take a break. when we come back, controversy over white house acess and sensitive documents . >> controversy surrounding the new film of the killing of bin laden with questions of the release date and concerns about white house access. details next on news watch. ed ts change the way we're thinking about them. a couple decades ago, we didn't even realize just how much natural gas was trapped irocks thounds of feet below us. technology has made it possible to safely unlock this cleanly burning natural gas. this deposits can provide us with fue

in your opening -- the beltway. there's definitely a concern that the extreme wing of the party cannot -- cannot go up against obama, and that's what huntsman's trying to appeal to. >> brian, i think lois is exactly right, that there is a concern, whether it's voiced publicly or privately, there's some worry within the establishment of the party. but in 2010, there was concerns about sharron angle in nevada, there were concerns about christine o'donnell in delaware. there were concerns about the nominee in colorado, the nominee in alaska for senate races. and yet those concerns didn't keep those people from being the nominee. how much power does the republican establishment have over picking and choosing who winds up being the party standard-bearer? >> i think they definitely have an input for sure. i think going back to huntsman, i think what you are seeing, again, he's trying to be the truth teller, but if he wants to do it effectively, he has to go all in. he can't be at the margins and say if i don't say this, i

inside the beltway which is pounded by this hurricane, they can fight over that in the future because flights of the hurricane hunters would be lessened next year if it stays as is in this bill this is proposed. >>shepard: thank you, phil, from the tropical cyclones down in miami. nice to hear from you. we are getting pictures from the storms thank you for sending them. you report, and here is one. this is clinton, new jersey. and another one in baltimore, maryland, look at this cloud bank coming in. it will be like that for the day. the we haves come by with flooding in homes and deep creek, virginia, and flash flooding all over the place. and, a tree branch on a house in newport news, virginia i reported on the death of a child inside a virginia apartment building, and, then, something blown out, look at this. the car window blew out and that happens as the pressure changes but not normally with this amount of pressure. and skies from the bridge headed interest new york city and beyond. and we are checking more into what locked like a last-minute jog to the right on the map and top

and the first issues we had to deal with were really inside the beltway. so the first report was done, i believe it was 2004. it was just about a year of a the department was established and like any organization created by congress it has got to be a mess because it is a product of compromise, right? compromise is the enemy of efficiency. like the creation of the department of defense, after world war ii, the first thing they had to do was reorganize it. and so we took a hard look at the organization of the department and we made some very clear and strong recommendations about the need, the imperative to reorganize and strengthen various elements in the department and that was called dhs 2.0. and secretary chertoff did indeed when, when he was appointed to replace secretary ridge and they brought in this big, here's all the stuff you need to read before your hearings, he looked at that and he did take that issue very, very seriously and did what was called a second stage review. i think matt was in the department then. which they did make a serious effor

so we're here to make sure that everyone inside the beltway knows the technology exists. >> host: what's the national association of broadcasters' view of your product, and are you using a lot of spectrum when you do this? >> guest: yeah. two great questions there. one, both the consumer electronics association and the nab are investors in our company. so in getting their endorsement about do you like the way i'm doing this, you know, they ended up both becoming an investor in the company or investors in our company. the spectrum that we're using is zero because we're embedding our tokens into, essentially, the null packets or the leftover data that doesn't, isn't filling up that 1939 that each station has. so it's very, very spectrum-efficient to do this. we can move 100% of the households over the web from over the air to over the web with very few bits being used to do it. >> host: jack perry, founder and ceo of sync pac showing us some of the new technology on display here at the capitol -- consumer electronics show on capitol hill. anthony fornito, double agent with the geek squad o

since this charade began to take place on the beltway this budget battle gold is going up over one hundred twenty dollars an ounce the whole world knows what's going on i heard your prime minister putin say that the united states is acting like a bunch of parasites and that's what this is when it comes to the dollar store can you explain why have the gold prices skyrocketed so much so quickly well because there's a devaluation of the dollar it's been going on for a long time but they're not calling it a devaluation what they're doing is they are flooding the world markets which cheap dollars just as the europeans are doing with cheap euros so the more the product is out there the less valuable it is so it's a de facto devaluation but in real terms again when you see gold prices skyrocketing that's what it means the dollar is it worth the digital paper it's not printed on our. focus it's at the last minute ditching the raising of the debt ceiling here you know when it really was a last minute deal the u.s. will make its finally stop bickering and get on with it but how but how does a all of

beltway those benefits disappear and that's where the rage and frustration and despair is coming from all across the country certainly interesting i just got back from iowa last night and it's very interesting to see such a difference in the way people live in the midwest of this country and then coming back to d.c. richard as senior fellow with campaign for america's future thanks so much for weighing in today thanks christi and we started tune in to our newscast in the next half hour coming up new at five. the wheels on obama's bus are going round and round so as he rolls into the midwestern towns through americans have any hope for a jump start on jobs well we'll talk to one unemployed american and an advocate for the ninety nine er's who says the jobs crisis can be fixed not just not recurrent climate in washington. and so i had this half hour on r t the economics thinking feeling it can be felt across the pond as well so as the e.u. is in search of a lifeboat from london cleans up its tender box could the economic on rust russia shore the u.s. well it may already happened. you kn

machine going to place in this city people who live here are under the beltway bubble money runs d.c. not politicians and the supreme court just made it that much more difficult to change thanks to their ruling on citizens united so rick perry go ahead try to convince everyone that you're the outsider candidate for two thousand and twelve and you can change this cd plates for starters i'm not buying it and secondly it's just an overused entire campaign trick that makes it sound even more like the rest of them and that's why you're getting tonight's told i work. now yesterday we spoke to firedoglake jane hamsher about protests in part of the white house those concerned for our environmental future risk arrest and all the sake for letting president obama know the keystone x.l. pipeline should be built by would stretch seven hundred miles from alberta canada to texas it would deliver seven hundred thousand barrels of tar sands oil a day and just one of the many reasons so many environmentalists are so worked up over it is because extracting oil from tar sands is a very expensive it's a

beltway those benefits disappear and that's where the rage and frustration and despair is coming from all across the country and that was richard asco senior fellow with the campaign for america's future. well president obama is on the road heading up the midwest and some of the smaller cities and towns hearing directly from the american people i will say that after what seems like the on talking about the debt ceiling the president is talking about the issue most people say he should be talking about jobs and the economy but for many people in america talk is cheap that's when you're unemployed and there is nowhere left to turn rhonda taylor is douglas herself and also advocate for others and her suze those who call themselves the ninety nine ers. and i want to talk to you about president obama's bus tour in a second but just give me a little background as to your story how long have you been unemployed. i've been out of. me. for our march. we are not a saving my life saving everything and i learned that in a group the last year and a half and i'm not alone. you know just like i'm no

we are here to make sure everyone inside the beltway knows that technology exists. >> host: what is the national association of broadcasters view of your product and are you using a lot of spectrum when you do this? >> guest: two great questions there. one, both the consumer electronics association and the n.a.b. are investors in our company so in getting their endorsement about do you like the way i'm doing this, they ended up with becoming an investor in the company or investors in our company. the spectrum we are using is zero because we are embedding our tokens into essentially the null package or the leftover data that isn't filling up that 1939 that he station has. so it is very spectrum efficient to do this and we can move 100% of the households over the web from over the air and over the web with very few bits being used to do it. >> host: jack perry founder and ceo of syncbak showing us some of the new technology on display here at the capitol electronics consumer electronics show on capitol hill. anthony fornito double agent with the geek squad at best buy, what are we looking

something is definitely wrong here and that is the picture that maybe we are missing in the beltway as everybody focuses on the deal that washington did to narrowly escaped default there is so many other perspectives that are not rosy and on top of this there's more talk of quantitative easing a third round of it markets are volatile today after a dow's five hundred point plunge yesterday a record for the last two years and the dollar hit a record low earlier this week to some people are taking matters into their own hands so they're saying hey we need an escape route they're actually making their own currency and have some of their stories in a minute they can do it's going on there but all of this bad news what can anyone do what can politics births possibly cope with to solve this earlier i spoke with michael penn to senior economist at euro pacific capital and i asked him as a dollar continues to struggle if americans at the local and state level are right to be concerned and correct indigenous dollar making their own currency through what he said. article one section ten of us

police legally the number of deals that of those who do vote most agree the situation here in the beltway is out of control how better to highlight that point than to also mention that a poll of those holding elected office the political class shows that fifty five percent of them believe the federal government has consent of the governed rate for cognitive dissonance i suppose when you're making a hundred thousand plus by determining the quality of life for millions of others it's easier to tell yourself that what you do is just one five hundred thirty five people in a sorrowful presidential administration a room full of tax funded generals and a few wall street bankers have convinced themselves despite all evidence of the contrary that what they are doing is right it becomes imperative we engage the political system and combat the tearing of statism by whatever means we can many people have withdrawn their indorsement as they would say of the electoral system by simply refusing to vote while others cast a blind eye to preoccupied with the latest news on sports center as they eat their m

tom friedman on beltway gridlock, the economy and why the coverage of politics reminds him of epsn. yahoo! digs up allegations that money, cars sex were improperly provided to university of miami athletes. i'm howard kurtz and this is "reliable sources". >>> he's an instant front-runner in some polls, but he hasn't had an easy ride in his first week as apartment candidate. he drew plenty of attention from veracious political pundits, most of it negative, especially true when he said if the fed chairman keeps printing money and said that would be almost treasonous. >> isn't perry crossing the line with all of this talking about treason, talking about black cloud over the country? isn't this way over the line? >> bad way to start. you don't want to accuse the federal reserve chairman of being guilty of a crime punishable by death which is what treason is. >> rolls like treason rolls off perry's lips because he knows that's exactly what the republican base is hungry for. base republicans want to crush everyone in their path. >> are the media giving perry a fair shake or giving them wha

because we're inside the beltway but i'm telling you people saw this and they went wait a minute why can't these folks sit down and agree to get. put me back to work people want to know and i'll put this question out here again who's got a plan to put me in the word and when will i go back to work that's all they want to know. that the process used to pass a bill clinton increase was not transparent the american people didn't get to see anything out of this is transparent and that's what all the restaurants are all disgusted by their process going to grill that carville announce that their recall in thirty six is really the sausage for thank you can see. carville of ours that they're going to. recall and destroy thirty six million pounds of ground turkey meanwhile the republican slashed the federal food safety budget two months ago this in the house of representatives eighty seven billion dollars thirty five million dollars in the u.s. regulatory the food safety division why do republicans have a problem seafood. well to continue upon i think they are cutting pork and a lot of differ

the beltway now on top of this there is more talk of quantitative easing for a third round people have different feelings about that markets are volatile today after the dow's five hundred point plunge yesterday and the dollar a record low earlier this week all of this bad news what can anyone do you get for it some people are doing later but first richard wolffe economist and talk show host of w.p.a. i radio is here to felicia thanks for being here now can you figure issues i just named number joblessness the debt all of these canadian banks or do they point to something that you spoke about with me before they this is sent is broken i think these are chickens coming home to roost in the stock market plunge yesterday we've had twenty years of being told that a private enterprise economy is the royal road to success and prosperity forever then we had a crash of that system now we've had a good recovery by a government that took care of the banks and insurance companies first and assured us it would trickle down it's not trickling down that's what these unemployment numbers mean that's

beltway and already let's quit trying to micromanage anything from this town remember washington d.c. is a place that can't even run escalators correctly. and now some news from anonymous. last week we defaced and destroyed the websites of over seventy law enforcement agencies on shooting sheriff saturday we release ten gigabytes of confidential information that is sure to end barris discredit and incriminate it includes thousands of private e-mails with passwords addresses social security numbers credit card numbers snitch information training files and more when analyzed this data demonstrates the inherently corrupt nature of law enforcement and will hopefully lead to firings and charges against the most offensively corrupt officers if we must we will break the laws of politicians to expose corruption we are doing this in solidarity with topiary and the anonymous pay-pal lower but i am canon defendants as well as all other political prisoners who are facing the gun of the crooked court system you may bust a few of us but we greatly outnumber you and you can never stop us from conti

the beltway passing the service road at 59 and suspect has been on the phone according to our folks and we have been watching this, and they have been on-and-off surface roads and service roads around 59. and as of right now, what we have is a mess. because you can see they are in some sort of mixed use area, sometimes it is businesses, sometimes it is homes, and sometimes there is a lost traffic and we have seen a few pedestrians, as well, as you might imagine, it is a hot day in houston and each day is a hot day in houston in the month of august. and away they go. i have in way at all, maybe andrew will send us something, but why think we have a lot of information here but to say that the chase is on and now rather than going around, there is a lot of traffic now and he has been crossing over the double yellow, and putting cops in a bad way, with even passing on the right on what amounted to the sugar land of road but there is not much of a shoulder right now. i am confident as they always do they trying to come up with options here, and one is a pit maneuver so the cop would get on t

but this is more important in the beltway than wisconsin, because it's not going to change the tort reform that governor walker passed nor collective bargaining law. >> i would say this. what is happening in wisconsin is a theme that will be bigger in the 2012 election. the message is leaders. message of greediness won't play well. >> greg: union leaders putting survival before survival of the state. daps $20 million. >> bob: keep in mind the governor of wisconsin is going to be recalled in january. there are petitions to do it. go wisconsin and badgers. coming up, riots taking to the streets of london. we bring you the latest. plus we will take a look to see if the chance of a similar situation breaking out stateside. right now on the table of "the five" when we leave. @ ♪ sing polly wolly doodle all the day ♪ ♪ hah @ >>> i'm bret baier in washington. big action took place north of here on wall street. crazy day. up down and a huge surge at the end. the dow jones/industrials average finished ahead 430 points getting back over the 11 howe mark. the -- over the 11,000 mark. tonight on

i mean, i sometimes get the feeling like a lot of people are in some beltway echo chamber. do they understand people are hurting out there? can't put food on their tables literally? the conversation is something else. can we now start getting the conversation back to where it deals with the needs of the people? millions of people of all kinds of communities in this country. >> absolutely. president obama is going to be continuing to focus. we have a long way to go. obviously we want the pace of recovery to quicken, but beer still createn jobs each month in the private sector. we need to go now to the point where we can focus on tax cuts for the middle class, make sure those get extended. not wait an eternity to sit out and see if that happens. we need to focus on infrastructu infrastructure, focusing on tax cuts for middle-class americans who are going to invest that windfall back into the economy, and make sure that literally the thousands of construction workers that have lost their jobs in this downturn have an opportunity to get put back to work by our making investment

on the way the beltway media handles the ames straw poll, you might surmise the ames straw poll has predictive power, let's see how people do at this pay-to-vote, raised fundraiser bingo game determines who wins the iowa caucuses and who wins the presidential nomination. that's a great storyline and justifies exciting coverage, it does not, however, happen to be true. every once in awhile it does happen, in 1999, george w. bush won the ames straw poll, then the iowa caucus, then the nomination. other than that, if you were looking to the straw poll to see how things were going to go, well, the republican party would have nominated mitt romney last time around and phil gramm in 1995, and pat robertton, and george h.w. bush the year they nominated ronald reagan. bob dole tied in 1995 but by the time iowa voted again, phil gramm after his awesome tie for first place performance finished at 9% in the caucuses. nate silver at the new york times crunched the numbers on this historically today and found that performance in iowa does actually have some predictive value of how you're going t