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International Journal of Mechanical and Production 
Engineering Research and Deyelopment (IJMPERD) 

ISSN(P): 2249-6890; ISSN(E): 2249-8001 
Vol. 10, Issue 2, Apr 2020,931-954 
© TJPRC Pvt. Ltd. 

ARTIFICIAL POKA-YOKE INCREASES PROCESS RELIABILITY VIA A HYBRID 
OF THE NEURAL NETWORK WITH ARIMA RESULTS 

AHMED M. ABED 1 , SAMIA ELATTAR 2 , TAMER S. GAAFAR 3 & FADWA ALROWAIS 4 

1 Department ofIndustrial Engineering, Zagazig University, Egypt 
I,2 Department ofIndustrial Engineering, AIET, Alex, Egypt 
2 Department ofIndustrial and Systems Engineering in College of Engineering, Princess Nourah bint 

Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, KSA 

3 Department of Computer and systems Engineering, Zagazig University, Egypt 
4 Department of Computer Sciences in College of Computer and Information Sciences, Princess 
Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, KSA 

ABSTRACT 

A product 's sustainability fails if its standard function deviates from the desired working conditions (i.e., by making an 
unscheduled stop), which makes less competitive. This study aims to develop a smart autonomation system via closer 
monitoring of the time series' forecasting model ofdeviation behavior to enable it to stopfor maintenance when needed. 
The proposed methodology (Artificial Poka-yoke; APY) achieves the objective via two sequential phases focusing on 
improving the operation 's performance, (deviation behavior to stop the machine before antagonhing HBUs essential 
elements). The methodology alters the ARIMA's trajectory and its error, as a Neural-Network (NN) inputs model is used 
to simulate them in the second phase to enhance its accuracy by comparing minimhed MAE and RMSE values, through 
72 trials and revealing the Poka-yoke index error. An APY approach is adopted for an electrical combustion engine to 
enhance its reliability level, based on intake control, unloaders valve and rifle drilled. The proposed methodology 
demonstrates its ability toforecast energy consumption related to that actually generated effectively and accurately. The 
methodology guarantees a reduction in downtime and waste by 0.71 % as a profit saving via ARIMA (2,1,1) x(0,l,l)6 
supported with a neural network to create smart operation. 

KEYWORDS: Lean Manufacturing, Poka-Yoke, ARIMA, Neural Network Model & Deviation Forecasting 

Received: Feb 22, 2020; Accepted: Mar 12, 2020; Published: Apr 06, 2020; Paper Id.: IJMPERDAPR202092 

1. INTRODUCTION 

Deep-Lean is a modern interdisciplinary concept which aims to eliminate the waste at the sub-causes level during 
manufacturing or services related to the TBL (Triple Bottom Line) elements and adopts the motto “environment, 
machine and people' are friends”. It also aims to evaluate and manage the performance of operations [2] and to 
increase reliability, availability and reducing environmental risk via reducing fuel consumption. In Egypt, the 
governorate objects to increase its exports ad satisfy customer via growing interest in the reliability concept, 
according to which the process is given the ability to stop working if its output will harm one of the TBL elements, 
thus focusing on increasing the processes’ ability to detect mistakes and correct them immediately. Poka-yoke 
(i.e., reliability philosophy) is a mistake-proofing approach proposed by Shigeo Shingo to enhance the reliability 
concept, which aims to eliminate any problem created by deviating from product working conditions, by 
preventing or correcting mistakes as early as possible. Every working span of products' process is challenged with 



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many errors incidence at any time [17], using Poka-yoke, the deviation is moved toward the rejection zone under working 
conditions, avoiding harm to any of TBL elements. 


Since the end of the 20th century, the reduction of fliel consumption has been at the top of every manufacturers’ 
agenda, via control the hmction faulty carburetor valves m-of any combustion engine [26] (i.e., used in vehicles, steams, 
airplane ... and so on). The fuel consumption will be reduced by controlling carburetor’s valve actuation behavior, that 
prohibits the fuel stream in its tracks, as a perface to drainage through engine shutting [34]. This will help in maintaining 
the reliability of this valve during its working life with minimum deviation from standard specifications. Therefore, an 
interdisciplinary approach advocates contributing to the sustainability of TBL keep down, with good hmction via its 
design improvement of these valves to be interactive and subjected to kaizen [32] to reduce pollution. Poka-yoke is a 
technique that aims to reliably monitor the deviations from standard limits of working conditions over a long time period, 
which calls for developing an accurate methodology for prediction of malhmction. In the case of a combustion engine, it 
is extremely difficult to achieve a zero-leakage consumption rate while working in a large environment that many 
manufacturing hmctions for every device's components. The units inhuence the hiel consumption the of the combustion 
engine shown in Figure-1: the motor, compressor/cylinder unit and valve unit that are all interested in check the 
methodology of the proposed prediction process. Ongoing monitoring becomes viable by predicting process deviation [6] 
and solutions can be discovered for process reliability through analysis of the malhmctions. 




Figure 1: Hydraulic Generator Components. 


The monitoring procedures are carried out by measuring specihc hmctional factors modeled with ARIMA 
supported with NN to enhance reliability level. The operation's C P is a popular level parameter that explains the reliability 
standard, but this is not enough in cases that include human interventions [1]. Thus, the use of the Poka-yoke index is 
suggested to evaluate the reliability in effect on the process on the social, economic and environmental aspects together 
(i.e. the TBL elements). Any deviation during working operation must be addressed by stopping the process until 
maintenance done. Shingo suggests three Poka-yoke categories: judgmental, informative and at source [4]. Poka-yoke 
sorts and prods the defective products that are deviating from the acceptable standards, without going into working 
methods to tackle the causes of their defects. Informative Poka-yoke collects feedback information on the defects (i.e., 
malfunction) to reduce their rates gradually by improving the manufacturing method [34]. Informative Poka-yoke 
includes sampling checks in SQC/SPC. The three types seek information about lifetime reliability, which is the working 
time of every part in the process without deviation from standard working condition, CL. Therefore, it is necessary for 
researchers to concentrate on waste sub-causes, particularly with regard to deviation from standards, which is called the 
Deep-lean level of artificial Poka-yoke framework, as illustrated below in Figure 6.1. The device components explained 


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in Figure 1 made up Piston moving forth and back in a cylinder, with discharge and suction valves and lead to increased 
fuel consumption in function failure [6] due to bad in a hole’s radius or thickness dimensions. The discharge and suction 
valves close and open according to pressure variations among the cylinder and entry or exit manifolds respectively. Poka- 
yoke is significant case in superior schedule of investments. 

Artificial Poka-Yoke (APY) is a suggested methodology that guarantees a long reliability lifetime, by stopping 
working and correcting the deviation if it is possible or changing the part to ensure the safety of TBL elements [14, 26]. 
The deviation has non-linear behavior. Therefore, in this research, the reliability lifetime was forecast via ARIMA aided 
with NN (which monitors a relative risk of an output by studying the significant parameters of its sub-causes at the minor 
level of lean implementation) for measuring the amount of deviation created during working. ARIMA, created by Box 
and Jenkins in 1970 [9] was based on observations created from first day of working and consists of a dataset which can 
be used to forecast the deviation behavior for creating effective control in a specific working span and time based on an 
APY framework, which has the advantage of improving the prediction accuracy (Luxhoj, et al., 1996 [22]; Balkin&Ord 
2000; Medeiros &Veiga, 2000; Tseng et al., 2002 [35]; Zhang, 2014 [46]; Chen & Wang 2007 [12]; Isinkaye et al., 2015 
[19];Qiu& Song, 2016 [31]). 

1.1 ARIMA Modeling Approach Needed in Phase-1 

The ARIMA (p, d, q) forecasting model of fuel consumption can be represented by general terms, as follows: 

yt = p + -i- ™ -i- a P y P -2 + 1 -V<j-l (i) 

where p is the autoregressive number and q is the number of lagged forecast errors in the prediction equation, 
based on plots of the AutoCorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial AutoCorrelation Function (PACF) [29]. 

1.2 Artificial Neural Network Modeling needed in phase-2 

The (NN) model is characterized by emulating the nonlinear or linear data behavior accurately [7]. The NN is determined 
by the characteristics of this data fed forward from ARIMA and DOE optimizer outputs to work through some of the 
hidden layer related to time series, which is formulated as follows: 

q P 

Yt = ^ w j * 3* ( w oj + ^ w a * x t.d + s t 

i = i (1.1) 

Where wij(i= o,i, 2 ,..., P ) and wj(j= 0 , 1 , 2 ,...^) are the connection weight parameters. The terms p, q, st, wO and w0,j and 
g x are the number of input nodes, the number of hidden nodes, error term and g x = x _*_ r , while the time series model for 

linear and non-linear output data, formulated as y t = l “ H- nV t . where V t is linear, while nl t is nonlinear data output from 
ARIMA. 

APY consists of two sequential phases; phase-1 is to obtain a linear model from ARIMA, while the error obtained 

from phase-1 behaves as nonlinear, e r = > p t +3?t. Therefore, the second phase (phase-2) is created to tackle the nonlinear 

predictable and its error via the NN model follows t-i ■■■ where/is a nonlinear function, and cot is a 

random weight variable. The APY forecasting model would then be written as: 


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yF t =Cl + ?OF f . 


( 2 ) 


The accuracy of the reliability is based on both linear and nonlinear characteristics’ behavior for the available 
series of deviations. Two key performance indicators are used to test the accuracy: the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and 
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which are calculated to compare the results’ accuracy, as follows: 


MAE = 


2l=i y. -y f r 

n 


(3) 


RMSE = 


j ra- 

)S(y t -yF t y 

^ t=1 


/n 


(4) 


Each dataset collected concentrates on a specific working condition to reflect its deviation behavior [6, 18]. The 
proposed APY model outperforms current models, because it forecasts by giving the amount consumption (in terms of its 
deviation) [10, 17], and whether this was acceptable or not. 


2. COMBUSTION ENGINE FUNCTIONALISM 


The experimental study concentrated on; 1} the valve plates as a cause fuel consumption instability, and 2) The rotary 
valve [2]. The analysis presented here matches to an indoor combustion engine of a cylinder space 6.64 cm3, active with 
R134a and a nominal frequency of 50 Hz. Suction, pressure and discharge operations are the central operations of the 
selected device, which are carried out during valve plate slots and discharge slots [2] 

2.1. Experimental Design 

This study is aimed to increase the reliability of the processes to avoid extra fuel consumption and back off the torque 
power, if worked in poor condition. The experiments were focused on valve unit of intake and Safe-Q-lube unloaders and 
cast-iron valve seats, which included the valve plates, valve gaskets, cylinder head and muffler. 



Figure 2: Schematic Valve Unit of Generator. 


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Figure 3: Discharge Orifice of Valve Plate and Crankcase. 

The selected control factors (i.e. tolerance limit) for valve units are the valve thickness 
(V th ; 2.45 #fll f m :3...S5 discharge orifice radius of the valve plate (R l?p ; 3.S1 3.920 ^ n mm) and discharge 

-•? 7 u in -•=? 7 u in 

orifice radius of the crank case as significant factors affecting the process's reliability (IR^^; 2.275525 
as illustrated in Figure 2 and Figure 3. Any deviations in these limits that cause extra fuel consumption, which is measured 
inmm 3 xl0 3 /sec, and reduce its torque are recorded in Table 2. The experimental study handled the real data of 24 
combustion engines, based on eight samples for a two-level set of DOE 2 k /3 replicates. All samples were produced and 
examined maintaining the actual manufacturing environment the remnant of the parameters of other parts. Figure 4 
illustrates the important factors that have to be planned though valve plate or crankcase processing to conserve the fuel 
consumption (<0.2 mm 3 xl0 3 /sec). Figure 5 suggests that the valve thickness should be controlled at 2J5mm , and the 
discharge orifice of the valve plate radius should be 3.0 mm , whiles the discharge orifice of the crankcase should be 2.525 mm 
(all these values with tolerance in mm). The operational effectiveness is based on four key factors [rotational speed, 
altitude path, fuel feed rate and thickness of valve]; the rotational speed which is measured in rpm, is recommended to be 
constant, and its effect on the average altitude path of 21.4 mpm , which is matched with [457:459 rpm], whereas the fuel 
feed rate [8:12 cm 3 /sec\ is based on the altitude path length (second factor), and the thickness of the valve. The Pareto chart 
cleared in Figure 4-1 explains that variations build on the way that rotational speed intersects with feed and thickness. 
Monitoring the operational deviation vs. time, for every significant factor, as shown in Figure 5; fuel to be conserved and 
be prevented for the extra fuel consumption. 


Pareto Chart of the Effects 

(response ts Gas evaporative emissions, Alpha = 0.03) 

0.2054 



F«!*r 

Hirint 

A 

v^lve thickness [irnn] 

e 

Dlscharga oriflce R of crankcas 

c 

Djscharge orificc R of valvs 


Effect 

Lenth s PSE = 0.039625 

Figure 4: The Important Factors cause Yiolate Euler's Equation. 


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Ahmed Abed, Samia Elattar, Tamer Gaafar & Fadwa Alrowais 


Pareto Chart of the Effects 

(respor»se ts FLinctionial de^iatlon, Alpha = 0.05) 


5.49 



Lenth's PSE — 1.A5B75 


F*ctor 

Ntmt 

A 

Revolvable Speed[rpm] 

R 

Altitude path[mrri] 

c 

Puel Feed[m3] 

D 

Thickness of ^elweCmnn] 


Figure 4.1: The Important Factors cause the Functionalism Deyiation. 


3. PROPOSED [APY] FRAMEWORK 

The proposed framework detailed in Figure 6.1 focuses on predicting the deviation during the working period using 
ARIMA, then feeding the dataset with expected values of its errors in nonlinear behavior based on the NN model, to 
increase the accuracy of predicting its reliability. 

The leakage rate, based on a Poka-yoke index derived from Euler's turbine equation based on, where the power 
output collected in Table 2, P — = copQ (r lv _q ifl Cosp iri — r {mt q {mt Casp cut ') as illustrated in Figure 6 and PYi =/(tp,^), 

which is a function of the consumption amount *P G p required (¥ = 53 e + E ), where - is the deviation, appears 

in Figures 5 and 5-1 (£ = 1 — d) and the output feed NN as a function of *P (NN=/(^)), whereas the second parameter 
(i?)is merely a dual parameter (among zero and unit) that measures the importance of working induenced according to the 

integrated DOE equations. Higher rates of i? increase the variations and command to a major stage of leakage occurring, 
and lower rates lead to the opposite, and are formulated as Eq. (5) and Eq. (5.1) to fade any trend in malhmction behavior 
for each of the significance factors shown in Figures 4, 4-1 and 6-1 and determine the best working. The parameters shared 
in the leakage, rates that appeared, as illustrated in Figure 6.2 according to PYi=f(significant limits (k), uptime, lifetime) and 
its significant factors =/[(Temperature, fluid flow rate, fluid velocity, fluid density)ltarget] and were calculated according 
Eq.5 for fuel [6.8:8 mm 3 / sec], for working factors to be [85:115 mm\ and for valves to be [0:30xl0 3 mm]. 


PY^t + St) =f(<p) 

= ln 


a^js) = 


\ 1 

(1 -ti)if> s (t) + —) A t/y(£) 
(1,'^A^r (t) - zif> s (t)) 


Z Ij—I 

S ’■-£ 


(1 - w8t) + dE s (t) 


(5) 




(5.1) 


where A is the discrete Laplacian for difference between consumption at t and t-1 period and pt is the mean value 
for z significant factors. The variations for 6 lag [34] to dissolve the way, as explained in Figures 14, 15 and 16, the datum 


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Artijicial Poka-Yoke Increases Process Reliability Via A Hybrid of 937 

the Neural Network with Arima Results 

composed have to be normalized through rolled up and squared I logarithmic to trial its impact with time variations to stop 
at a certain time for protecting TBL elements. 



Figure 5: The Recommended Rates of Important Factors that Reduce the Fuel Consumption. 



Figure 5.1: The Recommended Rates of Important Factors that Besiege the Deyiation. 


Table 1: The Fuel Consumption with mm 3 /sec for 33 Months 


Mcmths 

period^ 

Ml2 

Ml6 

Ml9 

M 23 

M 25 

M 27 

M 28 

M 29 

M 30 

M 31 

M 32 

M 33 

Os 

Us 

Us 

Os 

ds 

<7s 

Us 

Us 

Us 

<7s 

<Is 

<Ts 

1 

79.47 

59.31 

94.24 

117.02 

133.54 

129.78 

146.72 

139.4 

153.95 

128.47 

135.54 

119.92 

2 

69 

59.34 

97.43 

116.89 

123.42 

144.22 

124.51 

134.23 

134.57 

142.39 

145.7 

136.52 

3 

60.97 

70.32 

117.65 

84.39 

126.33 

141.11 

126.22 

138.74 

122.67 

140.95 

139.19 

155.46 

4 

49.46 

70.07 

120.14 

82.3 

127.8 

142.25 

124.04 

128.79 

122.79 

138.69 

125.6 

142 

5 

70 

72.38 

120.29 

82.46 

128.02 

124.99 

145.2 

143.85 

129.32 

148.48 

127.35 

114.81 

6 

66.41 

74.39 

123.1 

84.83 

125.95 

136.72 

124.35 

124.45 

127.09 

128.17 

129.85 

136.27 


The local dataset adopts a neural-network model and considers the second phase of the proposed conceptual 
framework APY, as illustrated in Figure 6-1 and defined in Table 2. Table 1 illustrates one of the outputs measured and 
expresses the fluid_flow_rate mm 3 l sec and other fuel consumption/sec. Figure-7, which records some of the statistical 
frequencies [15] of deviation values, a s (deviation), if the important factors explained in Figure 4-1 are neglected. The 
a s raised the error proceeding (i.e., the variation is reAected as a mirror for malfunction in the form of backward and forth, 
movements and burning) and k expresses the span of variation (significant limits according to the Pareto chart), which have 


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maximum probability of deviation appearing. 

Euler’s Turbine Equation 



Q = Fluid flow rate 
p = Fluid density 
q = Fluid velocrty 


Define Cujtom Factorial Dejign • Low/High 
Low and High Values for Factors 


/ 

1 

A 

p = Incidence angle 


/ 

v 

y/ioAN^y ^ V = Tangential tluid velocity 


i 

\ A V = q cos P 

V 


%/ j r = Turbineradius 



cj = Turbine rotational speed 
T = Torque 
P = Power output 


Factor 

Name 

Type 

Low 

High 

A 

fkiddffB*y 

Numerrc 

®l 

349 

B 

fbdflowrat 

Numenc 

1.9% 

2.480 

C 

Torque 

Numenc *| 

2.5 

12.0 

D 

Temperature 

Numenc jJ 

35 

49 

E 

fkjid vetoaty 

Numenc ▼] 

2.55 

36.50 


Torque T= pQ(r«Vin - romVout) 

Power P = coT = copQ(rinqin cosPin - romqout cosPout) 
Figure 6: Euler 


Figure 6: Euler's Turbine Equation’s 


The data introduce the variation's span range of 72 trials over 33 uptime months (i.e., the part must be replaced by 
newest one) with (a s ; rara), as shown in Table 2 (Location A). As stated in Figures-3 and 7, the medium variation in fuel 
consumption is 113,414rara 3 /sec, where the minimum was 69x10 3 rara 3 /sec in a month (12) and the maximum was 
155,46xl0 3 rara 3 /sec in the month (33), which increased by 0.73% and deviated by about m by 24,08454xl0 3 rara 3 /sec 
(leading to leakage in the part's hmction), the accepted variation range for the fuel consumption is 0 .16<PY X < 1.56xl0 3 . 
These rates indicate the Heterogeneity of collected data, but according to the T-test, it clarified normal distribution. The 
data were analyzed at other locations (i.e., B, C and D), as illustrated in Figure 7. 



oi beginning of woik Error prerention, iinmediate error detection and coirection before hann TBL elements 


In downstream process sia Neural- 


Figure 6.1: The APY Conceptual Framework. 


Table 2: APY (APY) Cycling Functions Appeared in Figure 6.1 


NO. 

Action 

1 

Inspection of fuel consumption sensors especially forfluid flow rateandfluid density 

2 

Check matched within standard limits control 

3 

Determine the leakage rate for fuels per sec 

4 

Check for variation span a s 


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5 

Create the central dataset for o s for every fuel output value and expect via ARIMA the 
future value with time series 

6 

DB for validate the process to continuo or invalid and make query 

7 

Send Query to APY methodology in central database based on ARIMA 

8 

Check stationary if the a s < 0.01 (functional analysis) or not 

9 

Update the input information with error value 

10 

Analysis the ARIMA and its error via Neural Network 

11 

If the observation not stationary, Delete the fade of the trend observed 

12 

Forecasting the next consumption via Neural-Network 

13 

Send forecasted a s in mm for APY methodology in central dataset (x 3 ) 

14 

APY approval if a s <0.01 hom central dataset to stop for rework 

15 

APY action; [Send data of stopping (if a s >0.01) 1 continuo otherwise] for the three 
signihcant outputs and calculate the process capability 

16 

Count the generator downtime and reliability value 

17 

Continuo the APY cycle 


The same data table was collected for all the DOE's significant factors illustrated in Figures 4, 4-1, 6-1, through 
three different sensors to feed the dataset with data used in forecasting deyiation behayior. 


Pareto Chart of the Staodardized EFFects 

(response is Power[KwatVhl A^pha - 0,05) 

1.997 



Standardized Effect 


Figure 6.2: Pareto Chart of Gained Power. 


Pareto Chart oFthe Standardized Effects 

(response rs Fuel Coreu mptior, Alpha = 0-0S) 

1.997 



E I anrlard ize dl E ftect 


Figure 6.3: Pareto Chart of Fuel Consumption. 


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Ahmed Abed, Samia Elattar, Tamer Gaafar & Fadwa Alrowais 


q O O 


D -T* O 
7T n J 
o m a> 
&> 

0TQ 

m ^n> 


< 

< 

(D 


5 5 
5 8 

O J 

m cd 
0Q 



Figure 7: Sensors Identification. 


Contour Plots of Power[Kwatt/h] 


a o ■ 

>00 200 300 )00 200 300 >00 200 300 

I tiii 

>00 200 100 2 0 U 1A 20 22 1.4 20 22 2-4 

H a a=n 


■ 

>00 200 KO 

B 


20 12 U 


s n i s n 


Pow«r[Kw8ttyh] 

< 

5 

■ 5 

10 

■ 10 

15 

■ 15 

20 

■ 20 

2S 

■ 

25 

Hold Valu« 

flijd denaty 

87 

flud flow rite 

1.8% 

Torque 

2.5 

Temperjhjre 

35 

turbine raduis 

4 

flud vekxity 

255 



Figure 7.1: Analysis of A, B, C, D Surfaces appeared in Figure 7 via NN 
4. PROPOSED APY IMPLEMENTATION 


The proposed algorithm [APY] observes the deviations of the PY index at significant locations (i.e., A, B, C or D) during 
working time via specific sensors. The following leaking areas were simulated through Minitab. The first track in the 
proposed framework was intended to analyse all significant factors that directly affect the product hmctions and provide 
immediate error detection to prevent toxic fuel consumption. The data shown in Table 2 is drawn as explained in Figure-8 
to identify the characteristics of the deviation's behavior and to control it via NN, where it reveals many periodic 
Auctuations that have trends approximately out of standard specification vs. time, which revealed seasonal properties 
(natural effects of product usage). 


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941 


The deviatiori rneasures for different locations on OSS 



Figure 8: Main Characteristics of Yariation Distribution. 



Figure 9: Autocorrelation of Yariation Distribution. 


The data shown in Figures 8 to 10 represent the cumulative summation of back-and-forth ward responses that 
control the deviation's trend [19]. It is essential to extract the ACF and PACF for the variation distribution, as shown in 
Figures 9 andlO respectively, which reveal the parameters are significantly different around zero, to pin at #18, and are out 

of the confidence region, which must be within —0.215 < ^ <0.215. Therefore, a stationary case test is mandatory. 

4.1 Stationary test 

This test tackles the data using the logarithmic (logio) to fade the trend, which appeared to accurately forecast the output, as 
shown in Figure-8 and Figure-ll respectively, for the variation behavior that is essential to feed the neural network model 
later, and presents a close view of the research objective. The ARIMA chooses parameters by extracting ACF and PACF, 

which are significantly different around zero until they spike (13) and not within confidence range —0.215 < ^ <0.215. 
L Iung & Box states the refusal of the main hypothesis Ho in order to 

Q»stat = LBQ (TBF) = 383.591 > = 34.83, Now refuse B®:p L = pn = AA= p% = 0 and faith of no fixed in 

the variation distribution data. 


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4.2 Disappear the Trend 

Select the near distribution which decreases the trend and echo the differences for its value until this 
trendfades -— ^t-LdoguO as illustrated in Figure-12, but the LBQ must be repeated to the first 

difference to be LBQ ( TBFf irst = 32.52 < * 2 ri 7 F o 1 oO = 33.41: Therefore, we have not taken the second difference 
for the TBF data and accept Ho. 

T locj of lon »» irc**» for di fferent locotlons <>« » OSS 



Figure 11: Absence of Trend. 


Autocorrelatlon Fi»tc t lon for Flrst_Dl f f ( loc|(Devlat lon Vdlue) 

(wrth S% sQnifk;ance 1 1 mlts fbr th»e autDcorrelataons) 



Figure 12: ACF after First Difference. 


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P<«rticjl Auto Correlation of deviation distribution in different locations 


.-2 

5 


!-c 

tWrJ 

1 J I - J- - 



2 4 6 8 lO 12 14 16 18 


Figure 13: PACF after First Difference. 


The log of ck*viat ion nK*cisurc*s for different locations on OSS 



Figure 14: Absence of Trend. 



Figure 15: ACF Seasonality First Difference. 


PACF of <k*viatlon dlstrlbution In locatlons after fade perlodlcally effect 





Figure 16: PACF Seasonality First Difference. 


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The TBF should be in equivalent to the center of the joints, to prove the absence of the trend, as mentioned in 
Figure 13. Then, preferably, [d=l], but Figure 12 and Figure 13 explain the seasonal behavior (which appeared for repeated 
maintenance actions) for the deviation at the location of spike 12. Therefore, the focus was on fading the seasonal attributes 
and determining the critical span that has maximum probability of malhmction (unreliability) [17] the through time 

scale : 


LBQ (TBFf irst wesimGUty d\ff) = 20.63 < = 30.58. Therefore, accept the assumption H 0 for the 

seasonal case. If the AFC spreads down toward zero by a power sequence, then the rank of (p) is determined through 
number of AFC, which is different about zero. However, if the PAFC moves down toward zero by the power sequence, 
then the rank of (q) is determined through the number of statistical correlation (MA) [33]. 



Figure 17: Residual Plots for Seasonality Deyiation Behayior. 


Time Series Plot for Deviation Value(maicometer) 

(wlth tbrecasts and thelr 95% confldence llmlts) 



Figure 18: The Prediction Phase for the Deviation Distribution. 

** Convergence not met after 26 iterations ** 

Final Estimates of Parameters 


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Type 

Coef 

SECoef 

T 

P 

ARl 

-0.1362 

0.1649 

-0.83 

0.414 

MAl 

1.0532 

0.0097 

108.53 

0.000 

SMA 12 

0.9415 

0.1383 

6.81 

0.000 


(SMA represents the number of maintenance) 

Constant 0.46979 0.0183 25.76 0.000 


Differencing: 1 regular, 1 seasonal of order 6, # of observations: Original series 66, after differencing 53, 
Residuals: SS = 5796.49 (back forecasts excluded), MS = 136.99 DF = 52 

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic 

Lag 624 36 48 

Chi-Square 12.7 14.6 34.6 * 

DF 8 20 32 * 

P-Value 0.124 0.801 0.347 * 

LBQ (T BFf irst \-\ty diff ) = 12.7 < *“ci2youwJ = 26.22 


That shows the non-importance and the model is effective to forecast the variation rate. 


Table 3:Forecasted Deviation for Table-2 data 


Forecasts the deyiation distribution from period 72 [99% Limits] 

Period 

Forecast 

Lower 

Upper 

73 

175.484 

157.650 

193.318 

74 

158.606 

137.880 

179.331 

75 

154.242 

132.400 

176.084 

76 

158.009 

135.592 

180.427 

77 

156.718 

133.926 

179.509 

78 

156.297 

133.215 

179.378 

79 

159.317 

135.986 

182.649 

80 

160.406 

136.843 

183.968 

81 

152.119 

128.336 

175.901 

82 

148.893 

124.896 

172.890 

83 

130.424 

106.217 

154.632 

84 

147.070 

122.655 

171.485 


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o 

a.oooo low 

flLJ»Cl dtr 

[3-19.0] 

07 Q 


—rl- 

, 2 ,-ieo , 

(2.0365] 

i.Meo 

2.50 

Te nrTSDer-at: 

o, 

[49.0] 

3S.O 

8.490, 

[8.490] 

-tV.Hd ve- 

„36.50, 

[2.550] 

3.550 

C o cnp cts. tts 
Oes m- st» »11 ty 
1-0000 

PawnrJKw 

Targ: Z5.0 

y “ Ers.o 

C* — 1.0000 

— 







_ 







(»> 


0.00000 

T ennperat 

s?o 

flLJld fl 

c I:3i3] 

3L-W60 

Torque «Cilci de tLJrbine !d 

(4%8j [33:83 cl:33S 3 

S-SO 33-0 J-3SO 

Campos ItD 
De&ta-atoirity 
0.00000 

Power[Kw 
Targ: 25.0 
y = 12.3462 

d — o.eioooo 


















(b> 


Figure 19: The Optimum Yalue for Reliability and Maintainability. 


The model checks the optimum values to stop working for the factors illustrated in Figure 19-a, while Figure 19-b 
proves that any deviation of significant factors fall the y to 12.7 as in Eq.6. Rapid maintenance is required and studies of 
the deviation in working conditions illustrated in Figure 20 to analysis the PYi. The intake unloaders’ diameters are fixed 
between [10: 13 mm] or between [20:24 mm] as Safe-Q-Lube suggests, and this achieves the consumption suppression. 



Figure 20: The Fuel Consumption according to APY. 


Contour Plot of Power[Kwatt/h] vs fluid velocity; fluid flow rate 



Figure 20.1: The Optimum Replacing Time according to Significant Factors Output. 


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Artijicial Poka-Yoke Increases Process Reliability Via A Hybrid of 
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947 


5. CONCLUSIONS 


In this study, the ARIMA time series was used to create short-term forecasting for the behavior of deviations for all the 
significant factors shown in Figures 4, 4-1 and 6-1, for all selected components which may be involved in causing global 
warming phenomena, especially in Egypt (where TBL is volatile), and the results were enhanced using an NN model that 
adopted the Poka-yoke principles known as APY methodology to mitigate the downtime vs. overall time. The forecasted 
output (ARIMA) and then inputs to NN are compared according to MAE and RMSE as illustrated in Table-4. This work 
contributes to improving the reliability level of any process' conditions and is helpful in rapid intervention to prevent the 
malhmction event and enhance the reliability and extend the guarantee by 18 additional times and reduce the malhmctions, 
as illustrated in Figure 21. This paper has presented a general reliability hamework via statistical modeling to control 
counted data. 


Table 4: APY Performance using Correlation Coefficient 


APY perfonnance using MAE and RMSE 

Amount of 

Temperature B C 

F1 ui d_fl o w_r ate 
miTi 3 /sec. 

Fluld_veloclty 

m/sec. 

Fluid denslty 
IS7ni‘ 

Models 

]VXAJE 

RJVISE 

IVIAF 

RATSE 

]VLAE 

RJN.TSE 

TwIAE 

R]VISE 

ARJMA 

0.S310 

1 1472 

O 1401 

0.2254 

7 5302 

13.348 

1.1815 

3 2915 

NK 

0,6031 

3.1 109 

0 0640 

0.2525 

2 4392 

3 0302 

2.2206 

1.S25© 

APY 

0.2285 

0.2501 

0.0421 

0.0869 

2.0413 

1.8714 

1 3733 

O 5164 


[AJPY perfomiance using correlatioii coefficients 


correlation coefficient 

TModels 

Temperature °C 

Fluid_now_rate 

mm 3 /sec. 

Fluid__velocity 

m/sec. 

Eluid deusity 
FT/m 2 

ARIMA 

0.373 

0.357 

0.352 

0.631 

NN 

0.755 

0.746 

0.937 

0.757 

APY 

0.533 

0.506 

0.503 

0.570 


MAE and RMSE reduced percentage error for all parameters 


APY 

ParametM-s 

MAE reduced error 

RJVISE reduced error ^ 

Temperature 

22.74 

10.52 

Fluid Jlowrate mm 3 /set. 

44.6E 

38.02 

Fluid velocity m/sec. 

64.05 

61.81 

F1 ui d_d ens ity N/m 2 

30 18 

32.53 


Test Results; the results of testing for ANN used in this work using unseen data are shown in Figure 21. The 
convergence condition is considered to be achieved when the range between actual values and predicted output is greater 
than 0.80, referred to as the limitation of the training data set. 

There were no special deviation events; the APY was based on 72 trials of data and continued as illustrated in 
Figure 22 to Figure 24. 


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Tra.ning R=0 99905 


Validation R=0 96781 



Test: R=0 99226 


All: R=0 99137 



Target Target 

Figure 21: Training Result of Proposed Network. 


Fluid flow rate distr!L>Liotlon comparlson 



Vkrt.bl* 

-*- [APY] 

— » - [ARUyiAj 


Figure 22: Pearson Correlation = 0.152 P-Value = 0.134 for fluid_flow_rate Output. 


Flt iicl Veloci ty dlstribuation comparison 



Figure 23: Pearson correlation = 0.371, P-Value = 0.000 for fluid_velocity output 


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Artijicial Poka-Yoke Increases Process Reliability Via A Hybrid of 
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Pkiid density distribuation cornparison 



V«ri*bl« 

—• [APY]_2 

— ■— [ARIMA]1 


Figure 24: Pearson Correlation= -0.064, P-Value = 0.532 for fluid_density output 



Figure 25: Analysis of Poka-Yoke index for Power Generated. 



Figure 26: The Optimum Consumption and Generated Power. 


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Figure 26.1: The Contour Plot for Fuel Consumption and Power Generated. 




Thc ubout Ok." vl* AFAJMA offl(rxS 

Usi-Kj Tr^ft>ruf rrkJltxi WiSt Ldtrribda = O.S 


v i.wrr? 

Afrw TrmjRuTTiMlori 
I.IHH 

Tlf )F* t.TZ L L L 



Puoiiul I.WrJ^l Cipibkt 

Cp 

4JJ 

c«. 

**i 

C«J 

4M 

w 

4*1 

C*p*t-fc» r 

Pp 


PP*. 

4.4-1 

Pfti 

4JU 

Pp* 

4.4* 

Cpm 

4.» 


Otmn4d P«rfof*VTMK£ 
Dffl V LSL 4JH 
WW > USL «0333.»» 
WW TfM*l «3333.»» 


Eip.Wiih 

PPM -.LSl* 
wn - osl* 

OPM Tm#I 3*i«r&? 


I . p . O'.uil Piiit.-iiri'ij.ri.'u 

PPM - L9L* 1 

PPM p U5L* i?l-*3 ,M 

Wl T««1 1 Mtt3.ro 


(a) 


®h°~" 
mTI ctl 


iattondbout (he larget usirn:j autonomatlon APY Methodoiogy 
Using Boot*Cas( Trsnsiormatbn With Lan*da ■ 0.5 



Pwm D-tS-a 


31 

T*bJ« 

3«.S 

USL 

« 

£n«ltMiu 

3«*rs 


IJ 

SflD*v(Wrfw>3 

OrG+ress 

5tO*Y(CwJ0 

].?AS« 

All.r Tr^-.i/t.nn 

L5L* 

3.S3S3S 


f J31H 

USL* 


S#T|*M*-n* 

3*33 

■Si&ivl.UNV,p) + 

O.CridEAOS 

st&*y(0¥*r^ «Mttttt 


— V#fiki-, 

— — OwJ 


Pm*IWuJ I.V.U I.t-:i C j£‘jL,L< y 

Cp l.-ss 
u i 

CPU 1.33 

crt ta> 

Ov*Ai <C*pffbSl1f 


f»P 4.3S 
P<X 

P«» ]h£l 

PpJ( 91? 
Cjli, i»J>: 


9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 


Ob&KV*d Pwf(HIMIKt 

PM^LSL OAI 

P- tM > USL O.Mi 


E .p. MvVhw) Ptdwrnarwt 
LSL 4 LL*.lf 
PPM > LKL* Ci 
RPM T(Htl IL3.I? 


Eiff.. PttLiMmarKt 

pem ]&Ul.4S 

PPM > USL* 1« K 
PCM Tm*J VA?t£* 


<*>) 


Figure 27: Stages of Implementing APY Testing Methodology. 


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Artijicial Poka-Yoke Increases Process Reliability Via A Hybrid of 
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951 


Contour Plot of Power[Kwatt] 


2.4 

£ 2.3 

<Q 

i. 

5 

O 

5 = 

■o 2.2 

3 

c 

2.1 

2.0 

100 150 200 250 300 

fluid density 

Figure 28: Contour of Power [Kwatt/h]. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

This research was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University through 
the Fast-track Research Funding Program. The work reported in this article has been conducted while some of the 
researchers are affiliated with Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University. 

ConAicts of Interest: The authors declare no conAict of interest. 

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Hold Velues 


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turbne reduis 

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